Presentation to CMAS October 7, 2008 Susan Casper, J. Jason West UNC - Chapel Hill Larry Horowitz

The Global Burden of Anthropogenic Ozone and Particulate Matter Air Pollution on

Premature Human Mortality

Presentation to CMASOctober 7, 2008

Susan Casper, J. Jason WestUNC - Chapel Hill

Larry HorowitzNOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Daniel TongScience and Technology Corporation, US EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC

Previous Study

800,000 annual mortalities due to urban PM

Cohen, et al. (2004) Urban Air Pollution, In Comparative quantification of health risks. Geneva, WHO.

Objectives

• Estimate global burden of human mortality due to anthropogenic ozone and PM

• Use model approach to improve on previous methods– Rural areas– Isolation of anthropogenic pollution

Approach – Health Impact Functions

Δ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * PopΔ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * Pop

Baseline mortality rate

Exposed population

Concentration-response factor Change in

exposure concentration

Δ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * PopΔ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * Pop

Concentration-Response Factors (CRF)

Source: Bell et al., 2004Source: Pope et al., 2002

Concentration (x)

ln R

R

ln RR

ΔX

For ozone, stronger effects captured by daily time-series studies:

For PM, stronger effects captured by cohort studies:

xt

Δ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * PopΔ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * Pop

Δ annual average daily 8-hr max. O3 (2000-preindustrial)

Δ annual average PM (2000-preindustrial)

Concentrations

MOZART-2 surface data from Horowitz (2006)

Δ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * PopΔ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * Pop

All-cause

Lung Cancer

Cardiopulmonary

Baseline Mortality Rates

WHO, 2004

Annual Ozone Mortalities

Best estimate: 282,000 to 362,000 cardiopulmonary mortalities with uncertainty ranging from 135,000 – 551,000.

Annual Ozone Mortalities

Non-accidental

Cardiopulmonary

Mortalities per 1000 km2 Mortalities per 1E6 people

Ozone mortality estimates are sensitive to HIF parameters

Meta-analyses: Bell et al. 2005; Ito et al. 2005; Levy et al. 2005

Annual PM Mortalities

Best estimate: 1.3 to 2.4 million cardiopulmonary and lung cancer mortalities with uncertainty ranging from 465,000 –3.8 million.

Annual PM Mortalities

All-cause

Cardiopulmonary

Lung Cancer

Mortalities per 1000 km2 Mortalities per 1E6 people

PM mortality estimates are sensitive to HIF parameters

Comparison to Previous Study• Recall… Cohen et al. (2004) found 800,000

mortalities due to urban PM

891,000 (299,000-1.4 million)

Including rural population and capturing urban peaks would suggest even larger numbers of mortalities

SummaryOzone PM

Cardiopulmonary Mortalities 282,000 to 362,000 (135,000-551,000)

1.2 - 2.2 million (429,000-3.5 million)

Lung Cancer Mortalities n/a111,000 - 192,000 (36,000-282,000)

Best Estimate 282,000 to 362,000 (135,000-551,000)

1.3 - 2.4 million(465,000-3.8 million)

% of All Global Mortalities 0.5 - 0.6(0.2 – 0.9)

2.2 - 4.0(0.7 – 6.3)

• Results highly dependent on assumptions– CRF– Threshold

• High density of mortalities in densely populated areas, but some in less populated areas