Presentation Overview

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ERTAC EGU Growth ToolStakeholder Rollout

Lake Michigan Air Directors(LADCO)Rosemont, IL

May 20th, 2013

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Presentation Overview

1. Process Overview and Timelines2. Inputs3. Algorithm Details4. Visualizing Results5. Current Runs and Future Plans

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1. Process Overview and Timelines

a. What is the ERTAC Growth Committee? b. Product criteriac. Committee structured. Progress & Timeline

Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee (ERTAC)

ERTAC convenes ad-hoc groups to solve specific inventory problems(Rail, Area Sources, EGU Temporal)

Collaboration:– States - NE, Mid-Atlantic, Southern, and Lake

Michigan– Multi-jurisdictional organizations– Stakeholder cooperation.

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ERTAC EGU Growth

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ERTAC EGU convened 3 years agoGoal: Build a low cost, stable/stiff, fast, and

transparent model to project future EGU emissionsUtility representatives also joined and provided

guidance on model design and inputs• AEP – Dave Long• AMEREN - Ken Anderson• RRI – John Shimshock• NY Energy – Roger Caiz

Helped refine the logic, such as reserve capacity

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ERTAC EGU Subcommittees & Co-Chairs

Committee Co-chairsLaura Mae Crowder, WV DEP Bob Lopez, WI DE Danny Wong, NJ DEP

Subcommittees and LeadsImplementation/Doris McLeod VA, Mark Janssen, LADCO

Create logic for software

Growth/Bob Lopez, WI & Laura Mae Crowder, WVRegional specific growth rates for peak and off peak

Data Tracking/Wendy Jacobs, CTImprove default data to reflect state specific information

Renewables & Conservation Programs/Danny Wong, NJCharacterize programs not already included in growth factors

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State Involvement

• Regional lead identified to coordinate state review of model and inputs(John Welch)

• State Lead identified to QA the input files• These representatives also review the output

to provide guidance• If Future Year (FY) emission goals are not met

with known controls, states will indicate what strategy are applied to meet the goal

How does it work? Starting point: 2007 CEM data by region

Units ordered from maximum to minimum hours operated

States provide info: new units, controls & other changes

Regional growth ratesBase – Department of Energy (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)Peak – North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)

Future hourly estimates based on base year activityTemporal profile matches meteorology

Unit demand beyond capacity moved to other units using 2007 ordering

Growth beyond regional capacity results in “Demand Deficit Units”

Test hourly reserve capacity 8

Benefits of ERTAC EGU Model

Conservative predictionsNo big swings in generationNo unexpected unit shutdowns

Inputs are completely transparentSoftware is not proprietaryOutput files are hourly and reflect base year meteorology

Hourly emissions reflect HEDD concernsQuickly evaluates various scenarios

Regional and fuel modularity Can test retirements, growth, and controls

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Progress So Far ....

Model Development: Methodology created, documentation crafted Preprocessor & projection running on Linux and

Windows (GA, VA, MARAMA, IN, NJ, OTC) Developing post-processing software

Estimating Growth in Generation: Growth rates and regions defined Created growth rate inputs using AEO/NERC 2013

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Progress So Far .... Input File Development:

Unit file and future controls file reviewed by statesCap files developed based on CAIR caps Further state input ongoing

Results:Version 1.65 complete for Continental USUsed AEO/NERC 2013 growth factorsImproved output through post-processorsDistributed to member states for review and comment twice

Sensitivities:Conducted many scenarios with varied input valuesRan alternative growth rate sensitivities(with high coal rates)

ERTAC TimelineMay , 2013•Third Generation of “CONUS” test runs Using AEO2013 Growth Rates•Goal: Demonstrate a “Proof of Concept”•Review output, revise and rerun•Present results to Stakeholders for comment

June 28th , 2013 • Identify Sensitivity runs for next round of modeling•Close comment window for next round of comments on 2011 base year

July-October, 2013•Run 8-12 sensitivity runs and present to full ERTAC Committee•Goal: Improve inputs and model output processors•Enhance ERTAC to SMOKE post-processors and data. •Mid October next update window

Anticipated Future tasks•Support states with Transport modeling• Improve Documentation•Enhance Software Functionality(needs additional funding)

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Data Importation

a. Inputsb. Preprocessingc. Growth Rates

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ERTAC Inputs

• Emission Unit Start Point: Base Year CAMD activity data – Gross load hourly data, unit fuel, unit type, location – Units categorized by:

• Fuel Type [Boiler Gas, Oil, Simple Cycle, Combined Cycle, Coal]• Region [AEO regions (e.g. MACE, LILC, WUMS)]

• States review provides known new units, controls, retirements, fuel switches, etc

• Energy Information Agency (EIA) AEO growth factors • NERC peak growth factors

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Preprocessing Functions• Data Edit Checks

– Unit availability file– Controls file– Growth rates file– Base Year hourly CAMD data

• Removes non-EGUs• Determines hourly temporal hierarchy

– Based on regional hourly Gross Load (GL)– Important for load distribution and growth rates

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Preprocessing Functions

• New units are assigned future hourly usage profile• Assesses partial year reporting units• Creates unit hierarchies for generation distribution• Calculates “hourly load values” by region and

fuel/unit type considering:– Retired generation– New unit generation– Existing generation

• Calculates “non peak” growth rates

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Growth Rates (GR)• Hour specific growth rates• Program adjusts unit temporal profile based on regional and

fuel/unit type hourly growth profiles– Resulting FY profile might different from BY

• Provides ability to understand effects of peak episodic Growth Rate and control programs on air quality

• AEO Growth combined with NERC peak growth – Peak Growth – First 200 hour in hierarchy– Transition growth – 200-2000 hours in hierarchy– Non-peak growth – last remaining hours in hierarchy out to 8760 hours.

• Combined factor is further adjusted to account for:– Retirements & new units

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Growth Rates (GR)• Peak GR = 1.07• Annual GR = 0.95

• Transition hours of 200 & 2,000• Non Peak GR = 0.9328 (calculated)

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The evolution of growth rates from annual to hourly

Transition(hours 201-2000 in

hierarchy)

AEO2010 (by region/fuel)

Nonpeak Growth(hours 2001-8760

in hierarchy)

NERC (by region/fuel)

Peak Growth(hours 1-200 in

hierarchy)

Final Hourly Growth

Adjusted for retirements/new units each hour

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Adjusted Future Year Growth Rates (AFYGR), Hour Specific

• For every region and fuel/unit type, each hour has a variable value for:– Total FY Load (Hour Specific GR * BY Load=FY Gen)– Total Retired Generation (RetGen)– Total New Unit Generation (NU Gen)

• Growth Rate for each hour adjusted before application to existing unit hourly Base Yr loads!

AFYGR = (Future Yr Generation – New Unit Generation) (Base Yr Generation – Retired Generation)

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3. Algorithm Details

a. Regional modularityb. Adjusted Future Year Growth Ratesc. Excess generation poold. New Unit Utilizatione. Demand Deficit units f. Spinning Reserve

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Regional/Fuel Modularity

• Each ERTAC region analyzed independently• Reserve analyzed on a regional basis• Algorithm determines if capacity has been

met for each hour for the region and fuel/unit type

Use new units

For all ERTAC Regions

For all Fuel/Type Bins

Analyze capacity versus demand

Assign generation

Spinning Reserve

Regional and Fuel Modularity

Units assigned to a region/fuelGrowth rates by region/fuelGrowth rates account for:

Regional generation transferChanges in fuel mixRenewables and some energy efficiency

Allows modular operation.With unrealistic growth rates:

Results will also be unrealisticShould we manually balance fuels or regions?

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DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE 24

Updated Regional Map

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Excess Generation Pool• If unit growth exceeds capacity

– Unit is limited to capacity– Demand beyond capacity added to the excess generation

pool for that hour/region/ fuel/unit type bin• The pool is distributed to other units in unit allocation

hierarchy order– Units receive power up to optimal threshold or max capacity

in two distribution loops– Power distribution ceases when pool is depleted or all units

are at capacity (Demand Deficit unit must be created to meet demand and run restarts)

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New Unit Utilization• New units mainly receive generation from overall

future year power demand. Existing units’ growth rates are adjusted accordingly.– Annual power production limited by default or state input– Temporal profile based on similar unit (mimic) —program

allows user to change the “mimic” unit• New units (demand deficit and state supplied) are

high in utilization order relative to other similar units because they are assumed to be:– Very efficient– Very clean

• Variables assigned to region and fuel/unit type characteristics are adjustable

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New Demand Deficit Units• Added to meet demand• Utilization determined on a fuel/unit type basis

(like new state supplied units)• Receive unmet demand• Size/location of Demand Deficit units adjustable

– Places at existing facilities in round robin. • Future temporal profile assigned by region and fuel/unit type• If a Demand Deficit unit is added, the allocation hierarchy is

recalculated and the loop begins at the first hour

First/next hour in the hierarchy

Does capacity meet demand?

Add Demand Deficit unit

Reallocate unit order

Begin at first hour in the hierarchy

Y

N

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Spinning Reserve check

• Following assignment of generation• Check if reserve capacity is available for each

hour in each region• If in any hour there is not reserve capacity

equal 100% of the capacity of the largest unit operating of any fuel type, a flag is raised

Determine reserve capacity needs for that hour

Is unused capacity > reserve capacity ?

Y

NAlert: More capacity neededFirst/next hour

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Results

a. Outputb. Examplesc. Runtime

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Output/Results• Future year “hourly diagnostic file”

– Heat input (mmbtu)– Gross load (MW)– SO2 emissions (lbs)– NOx emissions (lbs)

• File includes 8,760 hours for each:– Existing unit that is not retired– New state supplied unit– New Demand Deficit unit created by the code

• Summary files– demand deficit units summary– Unit level activity enhanced– Pivot table from Unit level activity enhanced

• Post-projection processing: graphs, more summaries, etc• More to follow this afternoon

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Sum of Future year heat input (mmbtu)

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In summary

• The model has been built• Output has been generated• Continuing effort to evaluate output and update

inputs– Demand Deficit units– Unit hierarchies– Exporting to Chemical Transport Models

• Scenarios will be built to evaluate policies and alternate growth scenarios.

Basics of 1.65 Run

• 2007 Base Year CEM data is foundation• Likely the last 2007 based run• Growth based on AEO 2013• Comments from states through March 18st.

(controls, shutdowns, and new units) • Run on VA DEQ cluster with current version of the

model. • Modeling done with state/MJO resources. Zero

contractor dollars.

Future Comment Schedule

• Model is data driven. Good, up to date inputs critical to success.

• Comment windows opens every 4 months. • Current comment window ends June 28th.

– Next comment window Mid October• Comments go through states to Regional Contacts

– Northeast, Wendy Jacobs – CT– LADCO & CENSARA, John Welch – IN– SESARM , Doris McLeod – VA– All other states through MARAMA

2011 Base Case Coming Soon• Need to incorporate newer CEM data to

reflect real changes in generation• Base year emissions inventory for EPA’s

Transport work will be 2011. • Data Group working now to update UAF and

control files to reflect 2011 CEM. • Groups of scenarios will be run this summer

with 2011 base.