Presentation Overview

Projects2:/IDEQ_Boise/Presentations/IDEQ_6-13-02.ppt

WRAP Mobile SourceEmission Inventories

Presented by

Alison K. PollackENVIRON International Corporation

Novato, California

Presented toWRAP Emissions Forum

Missoula, Montana

September 27, 2005

Presentation OverviewPresentation Overview

Objective and general approachObjective and general approach

Models, model inputs, and activity data usedModels, model inputs, and activity data used

On-Road emissions, base and future yearsOn-Road emissions, base and future years

Non-Road emissions, base and future yearsNon-Road emissions, base and future years

Road dust emissionsRoad dust emissions

California emissions data updatesCalifornia emissions data updates

Remaining work Remaining work

Overall Objectives for Developing Overall Objectives for Developing Mobile Source EmissionsMobile Source Emissions

To develop up-to date and accurate To develop up-to date and accurate mobile source emission inventories for mobile source emission inventories for WRAP statesWRAP states

To use consistent emissions estimation To use consistent emissions estimation methods among statesmethods among states

To get up-to-date modeling and activity To get up-to-date modeling and activity inputs from state and local agenciesinputs from state and local agencies

On-Road Vehicle CategoriesOn-Road Vehicle Categories

Light-duty gasoline vehiclesLight-duty gasoline vehicles– cars, light-duty trucks, cars, light-duty trucks, motorcyclesmotorcycles

Heavy-duty gasoline trucksHeavy-duty gasoline trucks

Light-duty diesel vehicles Light-duty diesel vehicles – cars, light-duty truckscars, light-duty trucks

Heavy-duty diesel trucksHeavy-duty diesel trucks

On-Road Mobile SourcesOn-Road Mobile SourcesGeneral ApproachGeneral Approach

Local Travel Data

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)

and Speed by Roadway Type

VMT Growth Rates

Local ParametersLocal Parameters

TemperatureTemperature

Fuel SpecificationsFuel Specifications

Control ProgramsControl Programs

Vehicle RegistrationVehicle Registration

MOBILE6.2

Generates g/miEmission Factors

X = Emissions

EPA MOBILE6 On-Road EPA MOBILE6 On-Road Emission Factor ModelEmission Factor Model

Estimates g/mile emission factors for Estimates g/mile emission factors for – Exhaust VOC, NOx, CO, PM10, PM2.5, NH3, SO2Exhaust VOC, NOx, CO, PM10, PM2.5, NH3, SO2– Evaporative VOCEvaporative VOC

Incorporates Federal motor vehicle control programsIncorporates Federal motor vehicle control programs– Tier 1 light-duty vehicle standards (begins MY 1996)Tier 1 light-duty vehicle standards (begins MY 1996)– National Low Emission Vehicle (NLEV) standards (begins MY 2001)National Low Emission Vehicle (NLEV) standards (begins MY 2001)– Tier 2 light-duty vehicle standards (begins MY 2005), with low sulfur gasoline beginning summer 2004Tier 2 light-duty vehicle standards (begins MY 2005), with low sulfur gasoline beginning summer 2004– Heavy-duty vehicle standards (begins MY 2004)Heavy-duty vehicle standards (begins MY 2004)– Heavy-duty vehicle standards (begins MY 2007), with low sulfur diesel beginning with summer 2006Heavy-duty vehicle standards (begins MY 2007), with low sulfur diesel beginning with summer 2006

Models state/local control programsModels state/local control programs – Fuels regulationsFuels regulations– Inspection and Maintenance programsInspection and Maintenance programs

Surveys of State/Local AgenciesSurveys of State/Local Agenciesfor Modeling Inputs and VMT Datafor Modeling Inputs and VMT Data

Survey for 2002 base year inputs and VMTSurvey for 2002 base year inputs and VMT– Default model inputs and VMT from EPA NMIM used for Default model inputs and VMT from EPA NMIM used for

NEI2002, CERR submittals to EPA, Sierra Research NEI2002, CERR submittals to EPA, Sierra Research analysis of fuel survey data analysis of fuel survey data

– Detailed spreadsheets were posted to webDetailed spreadsheets were posted to web– Responses were received from all state agencies and Responses were received from all state agencies and

key local agencieskey local agencies

Survey for future year inputs, VMT growth, and Survey for future year inputs, VMT growth, and unpaved road VMTunpaved road VMT– Default model inputs were 2002 inputs(except fuel S); Default model inputs were 2002 inputs(except fuel S);

default VMT growth developed from previous MSEI default VMT growth developed from previous MSEI growth factors; growth factors;

– Detailed spreadsheets were posted to webDetailed spreadsheets were posted to web– Responses were received from all state agencies and Responses were received from all state agencies and

key local agencieskey local agencies

California On-Road EmissionsCalifornia On-Road Emissions

California has developed CA-specific EMFAC California has developed CA-specific EMFAC modelmodel

We used latest public version - EMFAC2002 We used latest public version - EMFAC2002 (v2.2, April 2003) to estimate 2002 emissions(v2.2, April 2003) to estimate 2002 emissions

EMFAC includes CA VMT by county to estimate EMFAC includes CA VMT by county to estimate g/mile emission factors as well as emissionsg/mile emission factors as well as emissions

Significant EMFAC revision is in progressSignificant EMFAC revision is in progress

ARB has just provided updated emissions from ARB has just provided updated emissions from internal working version of EMFACinternal working version of EMFAC

2002 WRAP States Average Annual 2002 WRAP States Average Annual On-Road NOx EmissionsOn-Road NOx Emissions

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Heavy Duty Gasoline

Heavy Duty Diesel

2002 WRAP States Average Annual 2002 WRAP States Average Annual On-Road VOC EmissionsOn-Road VOC Emissions

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Light Duty Diesel

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Heavy Duty Diesel

New On-Road Mobile Temporal ProfilesNew On-Road Mobile Temporal Profiles

Weekday Diurnal Profiles

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Weekend Diurnal Profiles

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Day of Week Profiles

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Spatial Distribution of All RPO Spatial Distribution of All RPO On-Road NO Emissions On-Road NO Emissions (July Weekday)(July Weekday)

Growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Relative to 2002Relative to 2002

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2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

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Arizona

Colorado

Idaho

Montana

Nevada

New Mexico

North Dakota

Oregon

South Dakota

Utah

Washington

Wyoming

WRAP States Average Annual On-Road WRAP States Average Annual On-Road VOC and NOx Emissions by State VOC and NOx Emissions by State (excludes CA)(excludes CA)

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Arizona

Colorado

Idaho

Montana

Nevada

New Mexico

North Dakota

Oregon

South Dakota

Utah

Washington

Wyoming

VOC NOx

WRAP States Average Annual On-Road VOC and NOx Emissions by Class (excludes CA)(excludes CA)

VOC NOx

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Light Duty Gasoline

Light Duty Diesel

Heavy Duty Gasoline

Heavy Duty Diesel

WRAP States Average Annual On-Road SO2 Emissions by Class (excludes CA)(excludes CA)

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Non-Road Equipment Categories Non-Road Equipment Categories

Agricultural EquipmentAgricultural Equipment

AircraftAircraft

Airport Ground Support EquipmentAirport Ground Support Equipment

Commercial EquipmentCommercial Equipment

Commercial MarineCommercial Marine

Construction and Mining EquipmentConstruction and Mining Equipment

Industrial EquipmentIndustrial Equipment

Lawn and Garden EquipmentLawn and Garden Equipment

LocomotivesLocomotives

Logging EquipmentLogging Equipment

Oil Field EquipmentOil Field Equipment

Pleasure CraftPleasure Craft

Railroad EquipmentRailroad Equipment

Recreational EquipmentRecreational Equipment

Modeling Traditional Non-Road SourcesModeling Traditional Non-Road Sources

Local ParametersLocal Parameters

TemperatureTemperature

Fuel SpecificationsFuel Specifications

Equipment Population DataEquipment Population Data

NONROAD2004NONROAD2004

Does not include California; California has internal OFFROAD model.Does not include California; California has internal OFFROAD model.

EPA NONROAD Emissions ModelEPA NONROAD Emissions Model

Estimates total emissions Estimates total emissions —— includes both emission factors and activity data includes both emission factors and activity data

Emissions from traditional nonroad sourcesEmissions from traditional nonroad sources– 2-stroke gasoline2-stroke gasoline– 4-stroke gasoline4-stroke gasoline– dieseldiesel

Latest posted draft model used (NONROAD2004)Latest posted draft model used (NONROAD2004)

Includes all promulgated Federal control programsIncludes all promulgated Federal control programs– Tier 1 through Tier 4 CI engines Tier 1 through Tier 4 CI engines >>50 hp50 hp– Tier 1 and Tier 2 CI engines Tier 1 and Tier 2 CI engines <<50 hp 50 hp – Phase 1 and 2 SI engines Phase 1 and 2 SI engines <<25 hp25 hp– Tier 1 and Tier 2 large SI engines Tier 1 and Tier 2 large SI engines >2>25 hp5 hp– Recreational vehiclesRecreational vehicles– Recreational marine SIRecreational marine SI– Recreational marine CI >50 hpRecreational marine CI >50 hp

NONROAD Model Emissions EstimatesNONROAD Model Emissions Estimates

For each type of equipmentFor each type of equipment

Emissions = Equipment population Emissions = Equipment population

x Average load factor x Average load factor

x Activity (hours of use per year) x Activity (hours of use per year)

x Emission factorx Emission factor

by age, horsepower, fuel type, and applicationby age, horsepower, fuel type, and application

NONROAD has assumptions and default values for NONROAD has assumptions and default values for all calculation inputsall calculation inputs

2002 Aircraft Emissions Estimates2002 Aircraft Emissions Estimates

Based on NEI2002 aircraft emissions estimates; 1285 airports Based on NEI2002 aircraft emissions estimates; 1285 airports totaltotal

Aircraft Categories: air carriers (AC), air taxis (AC), general Aircraft Categories: air carriers (AC), air taxis (AC), general aviation, military aircraftaviation, military aircraft

Emissions for 549 towered airports:Emissions for 549 towered airports: – FAA Emissions and Dispersion Modeling FAA Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS), using detailed activity data System (EDMS), using detailed activity data by airframe for AC and ATby airframe for AC and AT– Fleet average emission factors for air taxis Fleet average emission factors for air taxis and general aviation, multiplied by total LTOsand general aviation, multiplied by total LTOs

Smaller airports: fleet average emission factorsSmaller airports: fleet average emission factors

Inserted improved aircraft emissions estimates available from Inserted improved aircraft emissions estimates available from other studies: Alaska (WRAP project), Wyoming, Arizona, Idaho, other studies: Alaska (WRAP project), Wyoming, Arizona, Idaho, Clark CountyClark County

2002 Locomotive Emissions Estimates2002 Locomotive Emissions Estimates

2002 national fuel 2002 national fuel consumption obtainedconsumption obtained

Fuel consumption Fuel consumption allocated to counties allocated to counties using historical freight using historical freight datadata

County-level emissions County-level emissions estimated as:estimated as:

County emissions = (county fuel consumption) x (emission factor)

Locomotive Emissions Data SourcesLocomotive Emissions Data Sources

DataData SourceSourceFuel consumptionFuel consumption Class I - Association of Class I - Association of

American Railroads (AAR, 2003) American Railroads (AAR, 2003)

Class II/III - American Short Line & Class II/III - American Short Line & Regional Railroad AssociationRegional Railroad Association

Historic freight movements (allocation Historic freight movements (allocation surrogate)surrogate)

Bureau of Transportation StatisticsBureau of Transportation Statistics

Emission factors (emissions/gal)Emission factors (emissions/gal) EPAEPA

2002 Locomotive emissions provided 2002 Locomotive emissions provided by agenciesby agencies

Alaska; Arizona; Clark County, NV; Alaska; Arizona; Clark County, NV; Idaho; WyomingIdaho; Wyoming

County Allocation of Locomotive Activity

2002 Commercial Marine Emissions2002 Commercial Marine Emissions

Ocean going vessel (OGV) types:Ocean going vessel (OGV) types:– TugsTugs– FerriesFerries– Support, excursion, and dredgesSupport, excursion, and dredges– Commercial fishing Commercial fishing – MilitaryMilitary

EPA emission factors for three size categories of commercial marine enginesEPA emission factors for three size categories of commercial marine engines

OGV near port and within shore OGV near port and within shore — — Washington and OregonWashington and Oregon– Ship calls and vessel powerShip calls and vessel power– Activity per callActivity per call

OGV Offshore (Corbett, Univ. of Delaware)OGV Offshore (Corbett, Univ. of Delaware)– Ship positioning data, subset of all vesselsShip positioning data, subset of all vessels– Scaled to all vesselsScaled to all vessels– Biased low near shore (near port grid cells replaced with near port emissions estimates)Biased low near shore (near port grid cells replaced with near port emissions estimates)

2002 OGV Emissions Estimates

State VOC CO NOx PM10 SO2

Washington (off shore) 1,554 3,150 48,158 3,582 27,612

Washington (within shore) 277 1,206 10,764 763 5,352

Oregon (off shore) 1,352 2,747 41,815 3,057 23,630

Oregon (within shore) 23 271 1,415 42 212

California (off shore) 6,284 12,787 194,219 14,112 109,208

California (near port) 1,062 7,972 1,369 719 7,015

California (transit near port) 1,507 2,858 20,929 1,883 15,965

Note: California ‘near port’ and ‘transit near port’ are dated; ARB said they will provide their latest estimates.

2002 WRAP States Average Annual 2002 WRAP States Average Annual Non-Road VOC Emissions Non-Road VOC Emissions (excludes CA)(excludes CA)

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Underground Mining Equipment

Recreational Equipment

Railroad Equipment

Pleasure Craft

Oil Field Equipment

Logging Equipment

Locomotive

Law n and Garden Equipment

Industrial Equipment

Construction and Mining Equipment

Commercial Marine - Total (Withinshore+ Offshore)Commercial Equipment

Airport Ground Support Equipment

Aircraft

Agricultural Equipment

2002 WRAP States Average Annual 2002 WRAP States Average Annual Non-Road NOx Emissions Non-Road NOx Emissions (excludes CA)(excludes CA)

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Railroad Equipment

Pleasure Craft

Oil Field Equipment

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Locomotive

Law n and Garden Equipment





Aircraft


2002 WRAP States Average Annual 2002 WRAP States Average Annual Non-Road SONon-Road SO22 Emissions Emissions (excludes CA)(excludes CA)

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Railroad Equipment

Pleasure Craft

Oil Field Equipment

Logging Equipment

Locomotive

Lawn and Garden Equipment





Aircraft


Spatial Distribution of All RPO Spatial Distribution of All RPO Non-Road NO EmissionsNon-Road NO Emissions (July Weekday)(July Weekday)

Spatial Distribution of All RPO Spatial Distribution of All RPO Non-Road SONon-Road SO22 Emissions Emissions (July Weekday)(July Weekday)

Nonroad SourcesNonroad Sources – – Emissions Projections Emissions Projections

Traditional nonroad sourcesTraditional nonroad sources– NONROAD model projectionsNONROAD model projections– Equipment population growth factors based on historical Equipment population growth factors based on historical

equipment sales dataequipment sales data

AircraftAircraft– FAA LTO projections by airport and aircraft categoryFAA LTO projections by airport and aircraft category

LocomotiveLocomotive– Project fuel consumption from historical trends in national Project fuel consumption from historical trends in national

freight ton-miles/year and freight company efficiencyfreight ton-miles/year and freight company efficiency– Reduce emission factors to adjust for fleet turnover using Reduce emission factors to adjust for fleet turnover using

EPA analysisEPA analysis

Commercial marineCommercial marine– In progressIn progress

WRAP States Average Annual Non-Road NOx and SO2 Emissions by State (excludes CA)

NOx SO2

Note: Does not include ocean going vessels; projections not yet available

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Arizona

Colorado

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New Mexico

North Dakota

Oregon

South Dakota

Utah

Washington

Wyoming

WRAP States Average Annual Non-Road NOx and SO2 Emissions by Category (excludes CA)

NOx SO2

Note: Does not include ocean going vessels; projections not yet available

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Aircraft


Commercial Marine



Lawn and Garden Equipment

Locomotive

Logging Equipment

Oil Field Equipment

Pleasure Craft

Railroad Equipment



California Mobile Source Data IssuesCalifornia Mobile Source Data Issues

CARB has its own mobile source modelsCARB has its own mobile source models– EMFAC for on-road – current is EMFAC2002; EMFAC for on-road – current is EMFAC2002;

EMFAC2005 expected “soon”EMFAC2005 expected “soon”– OFFROAD for traditional nonroad sources – has not yet OFFROAD for traditional nonroad sources – has not yet

been publicly released; only ARB can run and provide been publicly released; only ARB can run and provide emissions estimatesemissions estimates

CA data in current 2002 base case modeling CA data in current 2002 base case modeling – On-road using EMFAC2002 run by ENVIRONOn-road using EMFAC2002 run by ENVIRON– Traditional off-road sources using ARB estimates for Traditional off-road sources using ARB estimates for

CY2003 used in previous CY2003 used in previous §309 modeling§309 modeling– Locomotive and aircraft using ENVIRON WRAP-wide Locomotive and aircraft using ENVIRON WRAP-wide

methodsmethods– Commercial marineCommercial marine

• Includes CA in current offshore workIncludes CA in current offshore work• CA near port emissions are CA near port emissions are notnot included included

California Mobile Source Data IssuesCalifornia Mobile Source Data Issues

CARB has just agreed (meeting one week ago) to provide all CARB has just agreed (meeting one week ago) to provide all mobile source emissions for base and future yearsmobile source emissions for base and future years

Importance of CARB data Importance of CARB data – Significant emissions in all source categoriesSignificant emissions in all source categories– Can provide missing OGV in/near port emissionsCan provide missing OGV in/near port emissions

Have provided EMFAC and OFFROAD data so farHave provided EMFAC and OFFROAD data so far

Much work to be done with CARB dataMuch work to be done with CARB data– Data files are in unwieldy formatData files are in unwieldy format– O&G emissions are in multiple files and formatsO&G emissions are in multiple files and formats– Projection years need to be interpolatedProjection years need to be interpolated– Pollutants to be addedPollutants to be added– SMOKE and NIF files to be generatedSMOKE and NIF files to be generated– All summary spreadsheets, tables, graphs to be revisedAll summary spreadsheets, tables, graphs to be revised– Add to documentationAdd to documentation– Will need to work with CARB to create modeling files for 2018 Will need to work with CARB to create modeling files for 2018

control strategy runs in ~6 monthscontrol strategy runs in ~6 months

Road Dust Emissions Road Dust Emissions – Previous Work– Previous Work

Revisions were made to unpaved road dust emissions Revisions were made to unpaved road dust emissions estimates in previous estimates in previous §309 modeling §309 modeling workwork

PurposesPurposes– To develop a better estimate than EPA’s To develop a better estimate than EPA’s divide by 4divide by 4– To resolve large differences in adjacent To resolve large differences in adjacent countiescounties– To use consistent methodology across statesTo use consistent methodology across states

Revisions madeRevisions made– Revised average daily traffic volume (ADTV), key parameter in Revised average daily traffic volume (ADTV), key parameter in

emissions estimateemissions estimate– Revised silt loadingsRevised silt loadings– Applied transport fractionsApplied transport fractions

In In §309 §309 modeling, removing modeling, removing allall road dust had essentially no road dust had essentially no effect on visibility in Class I areaseffect on visibility in Class I areas

Road Dust Emissions Road Dust Emissions – Current Work– Current Work

Minimal resources allocated to update VMT estimates for Minimal resources allocated to update VMT estimates for paved and unpaved roadspaved and unpaved roads

Unpaved road VMT estimates were requested in future year Unpaved road VMT estimates were requested in future year surveysurvey

Inconsistency in State responsesInconsistency in State responses– Most States were not able to provide information on unpaved Most States were not able to provide information on unpaved

road VMT, or guessed a fraction of paved VMT by county and road VMT, or guessed a fraction of paved VMT by county and roadway typeroadway type

– Montana used ADTV estimates for unpaved roads, including “off Montana used ADTV estimates for unpaved roads, including “off system” roads, to revise unpaved road VMTsystem” roads, to revise unpaved road VMT

Updated transport fractions will be applied in SMOKE to all Updated transport fractions will be applied in SMOKE to all fugitive dust sources, and are not included in ENVIRON fugitive dust sources, and are not included in ENVIRON emissions estimatesemissions estimates

Comparison of Previous and Current Comparison of Previous and Current Road Dust PMC Emissions Road Dust PMC Emissions

Note – data not available yet for CA revision

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Spatial Distribution of All RPO Road Spatial Distribution of All RPO Road Dust PMC EmissionsDust PMC Emissions (July Weekday)(July Weekday)

Mobile Source Emission InventoryMobile Source Emission Inventory– – Remaining WorkRemaining Work

Obtain and process all CA dataObtain and process all CA data

Commercial marine projectionsCommercial marine projections

Documentation Documentation – d– detailed report including:etailed report including:– All assumptions and data usedAll assumptions and data used– Emissions estimation models and methodsEmissions estimation models and methods– Projection methodsProjection methods– Results in summary tables and graphsResults in summary tables and graphs

Future years data summaries to be posted to the project web pageFuture years data summaries to be posted to the project web page http://www.wrapair.org/forums/ef/UMSI/index.htmlhttp://www.wrapair.org/forums/ef/UMSI/index.html

– Detailed emission inventory results Detailed emission inventory results – Summary spreadsheets and mapsSummary spreadsheets and maps

Presentation Overview

Documents

road emissionscalifornia

road so2 emissions

future yearsnonroad

road voc emissionsnew

lightduty vehicle standards

updated emissions

heavyduty vehicle standards

activity inputs