20% Wind Energy by 2030: Costs, Benefits and Transmission 20% Wind Energy by 2030: Costs, Benefits and Transmission Ed DeMeo Ed DeMeo Renewable Energy Renewable Energy Consulting Consulting Services, Inc. , Inc. Ed DeMeo Ed DeMeo Renewable Energy Renewable Energy Consulting Consulting Services, Inc. , Inc. Transmission Policy Institute NCSL – NWCC June 17-18, 2010 Denver, Colorado Transmission Policy Institute NCSL – NWCC June 17-18, 2010 Denver, Colorado 20% Wind Coordinator for 20% Wind Coordinator for USDOE, and Co USDOE, and Co-Chair of 20% Chair of 20% Wind Advisory Group Wind Advisory Group 20% Wind Coordinator for 20% Wind Coordinator for USDOE, and Co USDOE, and Co-Chair of 20% Chair of 20% Wind Advisory Group Wind Advisory Group 650 327 3090 650 327 3090 [email protected][email protected]Presentation Overview Background 20% Wind Scenario Costs Benefits Key Challenge The 20% by 2030 Assessment Explores one scenario for reaching 20% wind energy by 2030 • Compares it to a no-new-wind scenario Is a feasibility analysis -- not a prediction Assumes no specific policy support for wind Is the work of more than 100 individuals involved from 2006 - 2008 (government, industry, utilities, NGOs) The 20% Wind Energy Scenario Primary Assumptions: • U.S. electricity consumption grows 39% from 2005 to 2030 -- to 5.8 billion MWh (Source: EIA) • Wind turbine energy production increases Wind turbine energy production increases about 15% by 2030 • Wind turbine costs decrease about 10% by 2030 • No major breakthroughs in wind technology The 20% Wind Energy Scenario Primary Findings: • 20% wind electricity would require about 300 GW (300,000 MW) of wind generation • Affordable, accessible, abundant wind resources available across the nation • Modest integration cost with operational cooperation over large regions • Substantial net positive benefits • Transmission a challenge 305 GW 20% Wind Scenario
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Presentation Overview 20% Wind Energy by 2030: Costs ...Key Challenge to Achieving the 20% Wind Scenario: Transmission Need for New Transmission: Existing and New in 2030 Transmission
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20% Wind Energy by 2030:Costs, Benefits and Transmission
20% Wind Energy by 2030:Costs, Benefits and Transmission
Ed DeMeoEd DeMeo
Renewable Energy Renewable Energy Consulting Consulting Services, Inc., Inc.
Ed DeMeoEd DeMeo
Renewable Energy Renewable Energy Consulting Consulting Services, Inc., Inc.
Transmission Policy InstituteNCSL – NWCC
June 17-18, 2010Denver, Colorado
Transmission Policy InstituteNCSL – NWCC
June 17-18, 2010Denver, Colorado
20% Wind Coordinator for 20% Wind Coordinator for USDOE, and CoUSDOE, and Co--Chair of 20% Chair of 20%
Wind Advisory GroupWind Advisory Group
20% Wind Coordinator for 20% Wind Coordinator for USDOE, and CoUSDOE, and Co--Chair of 20% Chair of 20%
Wind power avoids the negative impacts of fossil fuel-based electricity generation:• Air emissions of mercury
or other heavy metals • Emissions from
extracting and transporting fuels
• Lake and streambed acidification
• Mountaintop removal • Production of toxic solid
wastes, ash, or slurry
Wind Power Avoids Other Negative Impacts
NAS-NRC 2009 Study
• First authoritative US study of energy externalities
• Economic impacts of t d th illpremature deaths, illness,
reduced crop yields, etc.
• Coal result: 3.2¢/kWh
• Climate change impacts not included
Significant Water Use Savings
Cumulatively, the 20% Wind Scenario would avoid the consumption of 4 trillion gallons of water through 2030.
The 20% Wind Scenario cuts electric sector water consumption by 17%sector water consumption by 17% in 2030.
Jobs Supported by 20% Wind Scenario
Over 500,000 total jobs would be supported by the wind i d tindustry
180,000 jobs supported directlyin operations, construction, and manufacturing
Manufacturing Jobs Supported by State
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Incremental direct cost to society$43 billion
50 cents/month/household
Reduction in emissions of greenhouse gasses and avoided carbon regulation costs
825 million tons of CO2
$50 to $145 billion
Summary: Costs& Benefits
Reduction in water consumption8% through 2030
17% in 2030
Jobs supported and other economic benefits
500,000 total with 180,000 direct jobs$2 billion* in local annual revenues
Reduction in nationwide natural gas use and likely savings for all gas consumers
11%$86-214 billion
Sources: DOE, 2008 and Hand et al., 2008 Note: All dollar values except * are in NPV
Key Challenge to Achieving the 20%
Wind Scenario:
Key Challenge to Achieving the 20%
Wind Scenario:
TransmissionTransmissionTransmissionTransmission
Need for New Transmission: Existing and New in 2030 Transmission
Enhancement of electrical transmission system required in all electricity-growth scenariosWind requires more transmission than some othertransmission than some other options as best winds are often in remote locations
Wind’s economic, energy-security and environmental benefits will not be realized
without transmission expansion!
For More Information on 20% Wind Energy:
Report Websites
Federal Government site:http://www1 eere energy gov/http://www1.eere.energy.gov/
windandhydro
Industry site:http://www.20percentwind.org
References
U.S. Department of Energy. 2008. 20% Wind Energy by 2030. DOE/GO-102008-2567. Washington, DC. AWEA. 2008. Wind Power Outlook 2008. Washington, DC.Black & Veatch. 2007. 20% Wind Energy Penetration in the United States: A Technical Analysis of the Energy Resource.Walnut Creek, CAHand et al. 2008. Power System Modeling of 20% Wind-Generated Electricity by 2030. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Conference Paper NREL/CP-500-42794. Golden, CO. National Research Council. 2007. Environmental Impacts of Wind-Energy Projects. Washington DC: National Academies Press.Wiser, R. and M. Bolinger. 2007. Annual Report on U.S. Wind Power Installations, Cost, and Performance Trends: 2006.DOE/GO-102007-2433. Golden, CO: NREL.