Presentation on Pakistan Gas Industry Demand Supply Constraint & Sustainable Solutions By Shahzad Iqbal Executive Director (Gas) Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority Pakistan 1
Presentation on Pakistan Gas Industry
Demand Supply Constraint & Sustainable
Solutions
By
Shahzad Iqbal Executive Director (Gas)
Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority Pakistan
1
Outline
Gas industry in Pakistan - An overview Regulator setup and functions Pakistan Gas Market and Outlook: Large demand whigh growth potential
Primary energy supplies Natural Gas consumption Growth in terms of consumers adistribution network
Country wide gas transportation and utilization network Demand Supply Scenario Sustainable Solutions
Indigenous production LNG import Inter state Pipelines
Demand Supply - Consolidated
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Gas Industry in Pakistan
• Pakistan a gas rich country, has a long history of and gas exploration, the first gas field at Sui wdiscovered in 1952.
• Pakistan’s total recoverable gas reserves aestimated at 27 TCF.
• 50% of the country’s total energy needs are mthrough natural gas.
• Natural gas supplies during 2011-12 remains at 38MMCFD.
• The largest use of natural gas is in power sectfollowed by domestic, fertilizer, industrial, transpocommercial and cement.
• SNGPL and SSGCL are the main gas utilcompanies operating the T&D system.
• T&D network is 140,000 km. • Total consumers are 6.7 Million. • Peak demand during last winters was 5200 MMCFD• Piped gas is available to only 25% of population. • Approximately 3 Million vehicles are on CNG.
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Establishment of independent Regulator
Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) was established undeOGRA Ordinance, 2002 to regulate the mid and downstreampetroleum sector. The objectives of OGRA are to foster competition, increasprivate sector investment and ownership, protect the publiinterest while respecting individual rights and provide effectivand efficient regulations. Authority is independent in performance of its functions anhas exclusive powers to deal with the matters assigned in thOrdinance. Government may issue policy guidelines not inconsistent witthe Ordinance and the Authority is obligated to comply witsuch policy guidelines.
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Main functions of OGRA
Grant of licenses for regulated activities in the fieldNatural Gas, Oil, CNG, LPG and LNG. Notification of gas producers’ prices (well head) on hyearly basis in accordance with Agreements signed wFederal Government. Notification of prices for various petroleum products. Determination of revenue requirement of natural gutilities: notification of prescribed prices and consumprices of natural gas. Enforcement of specifications and technical standardsall regulated activities. Monitoring and Enforcement of Performance and ServiStandards . Resolution of public complaints and disputes againlicensees and disputes between licensees. Formulation of Rules and Regulations.
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64.7 Million TOE
Natural Gas 50.0%
Oil 30.8%
Electricity 12.6%
Coal 6.6%
Oil & Gas: 80.8%
Pakistan Primary Energy Supplies 2011-1
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Year Total
(MMCFD)
1991-92 1333 1992-93 1401
1993-94 1509
1994-95 1498
1995-96 1597
1996-97 1638
1997-98 1665
1998-99 1742
1999-00 1951
2000-01 2099
2001-02 2259
2002-03 2390
2003-04 2881
2004-05 3181
2005-06 3319
2006-07 2929
2007-08 3171
2008-09 3288
2009-10 3504
2010-11 3418
2011-12 3519
•Three times increasenatural gas consumptionlast 20 years. (from 13333519 MMCFD)
•Addition of two new secto(transport being cheep fuand Captive Power dueelectricity shortage).
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Natural Gas Consumption over the years
Natural Gas Consumption over the years
1333 14011509 1498 1597 1638 1665 1742
19512099
22592390
2881
31813319
2929
31713288
3504 3418
0500
1000150020002500300035004000
1991 -92
1992 -93
1993 -94
1994 -95
1995 -96
1996 -97
1997 -98
1998 -99
1999 -00
2000 -01
2001 -02
2002 -03
2003 -04
2004 -05
2005 -06
2006 -07
2007 -08
2008 -09
2009 -10
2010 -11
2011
Year
MM
cfd
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Sectoral Growth over the years
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-
Year
MM
cfd
Residential Commercial Cement FertilizerPower General industry Transport Captive Powe
•All sectors have shown positive growth over last 20 yea
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Growth in terms of consumer addition during05 years
Consumers Addition during last 05 years
5,196,1435,606,051
5,996,471 6,332,689 6,711,488
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Year
No. o
f con
sum
ers
• 1,500,000 consumer added during last five year
• An average addition of 300,000 consumers per year
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Growth in terms of network addition durlast 5 years
Distribution network Addition during last 05 years
91,881101,733
112,441121,282 128,701
-20,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000140,000
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Year
Net
wor
kK
m
• 36,820 km distribution network laid during last five year
• An average addition of 7,300 km per year
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Country wide gas transportation anutilization network as on 30-06-2012
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Transmission & Distribution Network -KM
SNGPL SSGCL Total Country
Transmission 7,654 3,401 11,055
Distribution 87,796 40,905 128,701
Consumer strength
SNGPL SSGCL Total Country
Domestic 4,155,260 2,463,584 6,618,844
Commercial 57,347 24,496 81,843
Industrial 6,672 4,129 10,801
Total 4,219,279 2,492,209 6,711,488
Available Capacity & utilization (FY 2011-12)
SNGPL Capacity utilization
Transmission Network Segment
Available Capacity Utilization
(mmcfd) %age Sui - Bhong 790 90
Sawan - Qadirpur 370 63
Qadirpur - Bhong 850 80
Bhong - AC4 1630 78
AC4 - AV22 1590 79
AV22 - Kot Addu 350 19
Dhodak - Kot Addu 70 41
AV22 - Multan 1430 81
Multan - AV29 1350 84
AV29 - Sahiwal - Lahore 650 86
AV29 - Faisalabad 990 85
Faisalabad - Lahore 450 75
Faisalabad - Galli Jagir 350 47
Wah - Peshawar 110 129
Wah - Abbottabad 94 70
Gurguri - Kohat 315 114
Daudkhel - FC1 - C6 110 125
Nowshera - Mardan 75 107
Mardan - Mangora 30 70
SSGCL’s Capacity Utilization Transmission Network Segment Available
Capacity (mmcfd)
Utilizatag
16" dia.Indus Left Bank Pipeline(ILBP) Nawabshah-Karachi Terminal 80
24"/20"dia. Kadanwari Pipeline Kadanwari -Malir-Karachi 180
24"dia.x116 Km loopline from Sind University to FJFC offtake 60
24"dia.15 Km Masu-HQ3 40
24"dia.x84 Km HQ2-Shahdadpur 85
18"dia. Badin Pipeline Badin-Hyderabad 200
Sub Total A 1(Indus Left Bank Pipeline) 645 76
20"/18"dia. Indus Right Bank Pipeline (IRBP) Dadu-Malir-Karachi 400
24"dia.x200 Km Bajara-Karachi Loopline 240
Sub Total A 2 (Indus Right Bank Pipeline) 640 83
12"/18"/20" dia. Queeta Pipeline Jacobabad Quetta 90
18"dia.18 Km Abbe-gum to Mach Loopline 7
18"x31 Km Dingra-Sibi,18"x15 Km Mach-Kolpur Loopline 10
24"x30 Km Loopline from Gokart to Abbegum 6
18" x 18 Km loopline (Dhadar to Gokart) 36
Sub Total A 3 (Quetta Pipeline) 149 10
Total Capacities for SSGC A (A1+A2+A3) 1434 81
Transmission Network Contracted for transporting 3rd party gas.
18" dia.Pirkoh Pipeline (OGDC) Pesh Bogi-Pirkoh. 35
16"dia.ILBP (SNGPL) Hassan –Sui 30
20"dia.IRBP (Reverse Flow to SNGPL) Dadu-Sui 170
16" ILBP reverse flow providing regulation between 20"dia.IRBP & 16" dia ILBP at RSI 10
Total Contracted Network (B) 245 91
SSGC Total Available Transmission Network Capacity (A+B) 1679 83
Demand Supply Scenario
The demand supply gap is widening.
Indigenous fields depleting
Demand over the years has increased.
Current supplies are around 3800 MMcfd.
Current demand is 5500 MMcfd.
There is shortfall of 1000-2000 MMcfd.
In 2020 the shortfall will jump to 3500-4000 MMcfd.
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
FY-13 FY-14 FY-15 FY-16 FY-17 FY-18 FY-19 FY-20 FY-21 FY-22 FY-23 FY-24 FY-25 FY-26 FY-27 FY-28 FY-29
Year
MM
cfd
Demand
Indigenous Supply
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Sustainable Solutions
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Indigenous production LNG import Inter state pipeline
Province wise Indigenous Gas Supplies &Consumption
Province wise Gas Consumption (SNGPL &SSGCL only) (%age)
47%
45%
7% 2%
Punjab SindhKPKBalochis
Province wise Gas Supplies (%age)
69%
17%
9%5%
SindhBalochisKPKPunjab
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Increase in indigenous production through incentive oriented sustainable policies. Improvement in law and order situation to facilitate exploration. Exploration of Shale & Tight gas to bencouraged, for which reserves of 51 TCF40 TCF has been estimated. Utilization of huge coal reserves in thcountry and production of coal gas. Production of methane through sewage waste (waste water treatment). Use of Biogas.
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Steps to improve indigenous production
LNG Imports
• OGRA has been facilitating the prospective investofor development of LNG infrastructure in the countand tangible efforts have been made in this regard.
• Notification of LNG rules & Natural Gas RegulateThird Party Access Rules 2012.
• Grant of construction / provisional licenses.
• Initiation of Terminal Tariff Study.
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LICENSES ISSUED BY OGRA
• To facilitate LNG imports, OGRA has issufollowing three licenses for construction of LNterminals.
M/s Pakistan GasPort Limited (PGPL). Elengy Terminal Pakistan Limited (ETPL)
(formerly Engro Corporation). Global Energy Infrastructure Limited (GEIL).
• A conditional construction license granted to MDaewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engg. (DSME) ftwo years.
• A provisional license for one year was grantedM/s Fauji Oil Terminals Co. Limited (FOTCO)
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Public Sector LNG Terminals- Concepts
• SSGC is in discussion with the Port QasAuthority to retrofit its LPG import terminal fimport and re-gasification of LNG for short terLNG import project.
• SSGC has also sought EoIs from parties for integrated LNG import project for supply of 4mmcfd LNG initially.
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Strategically placed as a regional energy corrand well placed for both pipeline and LNG imp
• Pakistan’s location being at the crossroads of Central Asia and the Arabian Shas drawn attention to its significance as an attractive market and a regiotransit route for energy.
• GoP is working on following pipeline options to mitigate demand supply gap.
Iran Pakistan Pipeline (IP)
• The gas is to be supplied from Iran’s South Pars gas field and delive
at Pak-Iran border, near Gawadar.
• Onshore gas processing facility at Assaluyeh in Iran, to traversdistance of 1,150 km through a 42 inch dia pipeline upto the IrPakistan border.
• The Pakistan section - Makran costal highway from Iran-Pakistan borup to Pakistan off-take point at Nawabshah, covering a distance arou
781 KM. Gas volume to Pakistan is 750 mmcfd. • Intergovernmental Framework Declaration (IGFD) signed in May 2009
support of the project for early implementation by respecgovernments.
• Gas Sale and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) signed in June 2009, abecome effective in June 2010 after completion of required Conditioprecedent.
• Under G to G arrangement with Iran , the construction of PakisSegment has initiated on 11th Mar , 2013.
Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India Pipelin(TAPI)
• Natural gas from the Yolotan/Osman and adjacgas fields in Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakisand India.
• 56-inch diameter 1,680 KM pipeline fTurkmenistan through Herat and KandaharAfghanistan, cross the Pakistan border nChaman to pass near Zhob, DG Khan, Multan,onwards to Fazilka near Pak-India border.
• Pipeline capacity is 3.2 bcfd with Pakistan off-tof 1.3 bfcd.
• Intergovernmental Agreement (IGA) was signedthe Head of States of all the member countduring TAPI Summit held at Ashgabat on 1December 2010.
• Pakistan and Turkmenistan signed the Gas SalePurchase Agreement (GSPA) at AvTurkmenistan on 23rd May, 2012.
Strategically placed as a regional energy corridand well placed for imports
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Map of import pipelines
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Demand Supply Scenario -Consolidated
Three type of projects are being considered to mitigademand supply gap:-
Iran Pipeline (IP) Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India Pipelin(TAPI) Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
The initial supply from IP is 263 MMCFD which will bincreased to 750 MMCFD. The initial supply from TAPI is 500 MMCFD which will bincreased to 1350 MMCFD. The initial supply from LNG is 400 MMCFD which will bincreased to 1000 MMCFD. By commencing all these projects demand supply will bmet for few years. The ever increasing demand will agawiden the gap thereafter.
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Demand Supply Scenario (indigenous & imposupplies in mmcfd)
FY-13 FY-14 FY-15 FY-16 FY-17 FY-18 FY-19 FY-20 FY-21
mitted & Anticipated ly (Indigenous) 4451 4368 4263 4230 4036 3746 3400 3171 3041
Supply 200 200 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
ipeline 263 487 750 750 750 750 750 750
500 1350 1350 1350 1350 1350
Supply (Indigenous & rted) 4451 4831 4950 6480 7136 6846 6500 6271 6141
Demand 5938 6070 6132 6243 6490 6622 6785 6922 7079
without IP, TAPI, LNG 1487 1702 1869 2013 2454 2876 3385 3751 4038
with IP, TAPI, LNG 1487 1239 1182 -237 -646 -224 285 651 938
FY-22
2692
1000
750
1350
5792
7239
4547
1447
2
Demand Supply Scenario (indeginous & imported supplies)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
FY-13 FY-14 FY-15 FY-16 FY-17 FY-18 FY-19 FY-20 FY-21 FY-22 FY-23 FY-24 FY-25 FY-26 FY-27 FY-28 FY-29
Year
MM
cfd
Demand
Total Supply
Indigenous Supply
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THANK YOU
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