Managing Drought Risk in a Changing Climate: The Role of National Drought Policy Dr. Donald A. Wilhite Faculty of Applied Climate Science School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln FAO Near East Regional Office, Cairo, Egypt, 1 March 2015
32
Embed
Presentation of "Managing Drought Risk in a Changing Climate: The Role of National Drought Policy"
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Managing Drought Risk in a Changing Climate:
The Role of National Drought Policy
Dr. Donald A. Wilhite Faculty of Applied Climate Science
School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln
FAO Near East Regional Office, Cairo, Egypt, 1 March 2015
Two Phrases to Remember
• If you do what you’ve always done, you’ll get what you’ve always got! – "You cannot solve current problems with
current thinking. Current problems are the result of current thinking." Albert Einstein
–It’s about changing the paradigm for drought management!
• Who and what is at risk and why? – Issues of vulnerability and risk reduction
• Goal: To build resilience, increase coping and institutional capacity
Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle: An Institutional Challenge for Drought Management
Crisis Management
If you do what you’ve always
done, you’ll get what you’ve always got.
We MUST adopt a new paradigm for
drought management!
Crisis Management Characteristics
• Ineffective, treats symptoms of drought
• Untimely, response actions
• Increases reliance on government/donors
• Poorly coordinated, national to local level
actions
• Expensive, large expenditures from
numerous government agencies (and
donors)
• Increases vulnerability?
The Cycle of Disaster Management
proactive
reactive
Crisis management treats the symptoms, not the causes.
• To identify those sectors, population groups, or regions most at risk from drought, most probable impacts, and mitigation actions that will reduce impacts to future events.
Risk Assessment: Purpose
Who and what is at risk and why?
Vulnerability Profile
Step 6
Step 7
Step 8
Step 9
Step 10
National Drought Policy: A 10-Step Process
(continued)
Identify research needs and fill institutional gaps
Integrate science and policy aspects of drought
management
Publicize the national drought management policy
and preparedness plans, build public awareness
and consensus
Develop education programs for all age and
stakeholder groups
Evaluate, test and revise drought management
policy and supporting preparedness plans
Monitoring, Early Warning & Information Delivery Systems
Vulnerability/Impact Assessment, Mitigation and Response
By Sector
• Agriculture
• Energy
• Environment, Recreation & Tourism
• Transportation
• Health
• Commerce
• Others
Agencies, Organizations &
Stakeholder Groups
• Reps from Ministries and
non-governmental
organizations
• Communities & regional
organizations
• Stakeholder groups
representing all impact
sectors
• Others
• Drought management
areas (provinces, river
basins)
• Communities (rural, urban)
• Indigenous population
Who and What is at RISK and Why?
By Area/Region
1. Establish sector specific working groups at the sub-national level to discuss impacts, identify the root causes of vulnerability and prioritize steps for risk reduction. Include technical experts, stakeholder groups, etc.
2. Identify impacts of recent/historical droughts and impact trends in order to assess sector/area vulnerabilities.
3. Prioritize impacts and identify mitigation actions and interventions that would reduce impacts (short vs. long term).
4. Where appropriate, identify triggers to phase in and phase out mitigation actions during drought onset or termination.
5. Identify agencies and organizations, develop collaborative strategies and authorities to implement actions.
Risk Assessment Methodology: Developing a Vulnerability Profile
Steps:
Impacts Actions Ministries/
NGOs Triggers
Reduced urban
water supplies Implementing water
conservation measures
Reservoir level, # days
remaining Local water authority,
Ministry of Water
Reduced forage for
livestock
Incentive program to
provide on-farm storage
Ministry of Agriculture,
farm organizations
Variable farm
income
Create tax-free savings
program
Ministry of Agriculture,
Finance
Reduced irrigation
water supplies
Prioritizing water uses,
restricting irrigation
Reduced streamflow,
GW, snowpack, forecast
Ministry of Water, Agric.,
Environment
Increased fire
danger
Education programs,
restricting fires
Fire index, forecast, soil
moisture
Ministry of Agric., Health,
Forestry, Interior, Environ.
Risk Management Matrix (Scale)
Preparedness
- Planning
- Post-crisis
evaluation
- Revision
Mitigation
- Actions,
strategies,
interventions
- Insurance
Relief
- Post-impact
interventions
Rehabilitation
- Recovery
strategies
and
interventions
Indiv/HHs Community Dist/Prov NGOs Natl. Govt Donors
Micro Meso Macro
Takeaway Messages • Drought is a normal part of climate.
• Changing precipitation amounts, seasonal distribution, form
• Increasing temperatures will increase ET and demand for
water resources drought severity, frequency and duration.
• Past drought management efforts have been reactive—