Presentation of 2010 Mozambique Agriculture Trends Report 2 nd September 2011 VIP Hotel Maputo, Mozambique
Presentation of 2010 Mozambique Agriculture Trends
Report2nd September 2011
VIP Hotel
Maputo, Mozambique
Setting the context: Agricultural trends in Southern Africa with reference to
Mozambique
by Dr E. Musaba
(ReSAKSS-SA, IWMI)
2 Sept 2011Maputo
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Outline of the Presentation
• Why monitor agricultural sector?• What is CAADP?• SADC RISDP• CAADP M&E Framework• ReSAKSS• Agricultural sector trends in Southern Africa• Remarks on overall performance
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Why monitor agricultural sector?
• To determine whether investments made have any impacts on growth rates and on national hunger and poverty levels.
• To establish whether and how the country is progressing towards achieving its agricultural growth target, performance targets and the MDG1 target
( SADC RISDP and CAADP targets)
• To promote the culture of using evidence within national planning systems as a basis for decision making.
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
What is CAADP? • Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme
(CAADP).
• Formulated in 2003 under auspices of the AUC and NEPAD
• CAADP - to help African countries attain high economic growththrough agriculturally-led development
Targets of CAADP
• MDG 1 : to reduce poverty and hunger by half by 2015,
• 6 percent average annual growth in the agriculture sector
• Allocate 10 percent of national budgets to agricultural sector.
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Four Pillars of CAADP
CAADP is a strategic framework to guide investments across four specific pillars, as well as investments in strengthening institutional capacity across the pillars:
1. Extending the area under sustainable land management and reliable water control systems2. Improving rural infrastructure and trade-related capacity for market access3. Increasing food supplies and reducing hunger4. Agricultural research and technology dissemination and adoption
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
SADC Regional Indicative Strategic Plan (RISDP)
SADC RISDP targets
• GDP growth of 7% a year.• Halving hunger between 1990 and 2015.• Doubling cropland under irrigation from 3.5% to 7% by 2015.
• Increasing fertilizer use from 44.6 kg/ha to 65Kg/ha by 2015 • Increasing cereal yield from 1392 kg/ha to 2,000 kg/ha by 2015
• Doubling the adoption rate of proven technologies (improved seed varieties, and management of water and land by 2015.
• Increasing livestock production by at least 4% annually.
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
CAADP M&E Framework
II. Overall Purpose of the M & E Agenda
The overall purpose of the M&E agenda is to assist CAADP and SADC to monitor and track progress in resource allocation and the achievement of stated targets in the following performance areas:
(1) enabling environment;(2) implementation process
(3) commitments and investments;(4) agricultural growth performance;(5) agricultural trade performance;(6) poverty, hunger, and food and nutrition security; and(7) investment-growth poverty linkages.
Hence assesses progress made toward achieving CAADP and SACD RISDP targets.
CAADP M&E framework has 34 indicators
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
ReSAKSS-SA
• Is Part of an Africa wide initiative supporting CAADP and regionally shared goals – COMESA, SADC, ECOWAS
• Provides Analysis and knowledge support for planning, review and policy dialogue for agricultural growth and poverty reduction
• 3 Sub-Regional programmes launched in Sept 2006
• ReSAKSS-SA is facilitated by IWMI and IFPRI, and steering committee chaired by SADC FANR
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Agricultural trends in the context of SADC RISDP/CAADP/MDG
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Human population is still largely rural based
Source: World Bank (2009)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Agriculture is most important in 7 low income countries out of 15 SADC countries (2008)
Source: World Bank (2010)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
SADC wide GDP growth rates impressive since 2003, but yet to reach SADC RISDP target
Source: World Bank (2010)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
…GDP growth yet to translate into reduction in poverty
Source: World Bank (2010)
0
10
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50
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(%
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Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
…GDP growth yet to translate into reduction in hunger
Source: von Grebmer et al. (2010)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Agriculture needs to contribute to more economic growth in order to contribute to poverty reduction
Source: World Bank (2010)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
30001
98
0
19
81
19
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Co
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S$ (
bill
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Agriculture GDP Total GDP
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Progress towards the 6 percent agriculture GDP CAADP growth target
Source: FAOSTAT (2010)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Average cereal yield still to reach 2000kg/ha SADC RISDP target
Source: FAOSTAT (2010)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
…cereal production has been failing to match population growth in the region over the last decades
Source: FAOSTAT (2010)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Net importer of cereals
Source: FAOSTAT (2010)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Net importer of key livestock products (e.g. cattle meat)
Source: FAOSTAT (2010)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Fertilizer consumption yet to achieve SADC RISDP target of 65kg/ha
Source: FAOSTAT (2010)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Progress towards the SADC RISDP target of 7 percent of area under irrigation
SADC RISDP target 7% area under irrigation by 2015
Source: SADC (2008)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Overall Performance
• Contribution of agriculture to total GDP varies across SADC countries:
….agriculture remains the region’s driver of economic development particularly among low income countries
• Varied progress towards meeting set targets: however most targets are yet to be met
• Maputo declaration, CAADP AgGDP growth rates, Cereal yields, Fertilizer use, Etc.
• Decline in poverty since 1990 marginal
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
• Future Outlook:
• AgGDP: Some countries are on track to meeting the CAADP 6 percent annual AgGDP growth target, namely Angola, Mozambique other are not
• Poverty: most SADC countries are off-track to reaching the MDG1 target of halving 1990 poverty rates by 2015
• There is mixed progress in meeting both goals of MDG1 – Poverty and Hunger : Mozambique is no exception
• Challenges:
– stabilizing and enhancing agricultural growth rates
– increasing budget allocations to the sector and identification of policy and investment options
– Increasing agricultural productivity (e.g. Irrigation, Fertiliser use etc.)
– Translating agriculture and total economic growth into poverty reduction
Overall Performance