23
What the ELCC and TF Mean for Capacitybull Preferred resources
required 4-56x nameplate for 1 MW of NQC
bull The Gas Capacity accounting for forced outages assumes a 9 forced outage rate for gas additions
bull This value was not used in the study and is only provided for comparison
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Revised ELCC 2026+Revised ELCC 2025Revised ELCC 2024Revised ELCC 2023Revised ELCC 2022
Primary ELCC 2026+Primary ELCC 2025Primary ELCC 2024Primary ELCC 2023Primary ELCC 2022
Gas Capacity (Accounting for FO)Gas Capacity
NQC
NameplateNQC Ratio
Nameplate Capacity for 1 MW of NQC
NQC Gas Biomass Geothermal
hydro Wind Solar Energy Storage 4 h
Energy Storage 8 h Shed DR
24
Forced Outagesbull Outages were applied on a standard unit
sizebull Capacity weighted Thermal FOR
bull 2022 76bull 2026 68
bull Tests were performed for different unit sizes
bull Little impact was noted
Forced outage rates source January 25 2021presentation to WECC by Yi Zhang of the CAISO httpswwwweccorg_layouts15WopiFrameaspxsourcedoc=AdministrativeZhang20-20FOR20PCMSpdfampaction=defaultampDefaultItemOpen=1CAISO Unit Size CEC Staff Analysis
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
10000
115
130
145
160
175
190
110
5112
0113
5115
0116
5118
0119
5121
0122
5124
0125
5127
0128
5130
0131
5133
01
Uns
erve
d D
eman
d (M
W)
Event Rank
Unserved Energy Event Magnitude
S0 - 2022
S0 - 2022 FOR
S1 - 2022
S1 - 2022 FOR
S3 - 2022
S3 - 2022 FOR
1 in 10
1 in 20
1 in 100
Technology
Forced Outage Rate ()
Mean Time to Repair (h)
Standard Unit Size (MW)
Test Unit Size (MW)
CAISO Median Unit Size (MW)
CAISO Mean Unit Size (MW)
Combined Cycle 369 24 100 600 583 6190Gas Turbine 1166 24 100 125 498 1254Cogen 1384 24 100 50 498 1254Gas-Other 1384 24 100 40 99 401Nuclear 192 24 1140 1140 NA NAGeothermal 72 24 25 25 NA NABiomass 8 24 10 10 NA NAImports - Specified 369 24 100 100 NA NAEnergy Storage 4 h 5 24 10 10 NA NAEnergy Storage 8 h 5 24 10 10 NA NAPumped Hydro Storage 577 24 100 100 NA NA
25
Forced Outage Unit Size Impact
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1 54 107
160
213
266
319
372
425
478
531
584
637
690
743
796
849
902
955
1008
1061
1114
1167
1220
1273
1326
1379
1432
1485
1538
1591
1644
1697
1750
1803
1856
1909
1962
2015
2068
2121
2174
2227
2280
2333
2386
2439
2492
2545
2598
2651
2704
2757
2810
2863
2916
2969
3022
3075
3128
3181
3234
3287
3340
3393
Uns
erve
d D
eman
d (M
W)
Event Rank
Unserved Energy Event Magnitude
S0 - 2022
S0 - 2022 FOR
S1 - 2022
S1 - 2022 FOR
S3 - 2022
S3 - 2022 FOR
1 in 10
1 in 20
1 in 100
26
Reservesbull Reserves were
independently modeled at 6
bull Tests were done at 35
bull Resources are required to be able to deliver energy for 30 minutes to offer reserves
bull Price was used only to set a dispatch priority
bull Max reserve contribution by resource type is in the table below
Technology (MW) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Price ($)
Combined Cycle 2500 2500 2500 2500 2500 2 Gas Turbine 2500 2500 2500 2500 2500 2 Hydro 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 3 Energy Storage 4 h 1000 1250 1500 1750 1750 1 Energy Storage 8 h - - - - 250 1
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1 49 97 145
193
241
289
337
385
433
481
529
577
625
673
721
769
817
865
913
961
1009
1057
1105
1153
1201
1249
1297
1345
1393
1441
1489
1537
1585
1633
1681
1729
1777
1825
1873
1921
1969
2017
Uns
erve
d D
eman
d (M
W)
Event Rank
Unserved Energy Event Magnitude
S0 - 2022
S0 - 2022 R35
S1 - 2022
S1 - 2022 R35
S3 - 2022
S3 - 2022 R35
1 in 10
1 in 20
1 in 100
27
Reserve Requirement Test
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1 31 61 91 121
151
181
211
241
271
301
331
361
391
421
451
481
511
541
571
601
631
661
691
721
751
781
811
841
871
901
931
961
991
1021
1051
1081
1111
1141
1171
1201
1231
1261
1291
1321
1351
1381
1411
1441
1471
1501
1531
1561
1591
1621
1651
1681
1711
1741
1771
1801
1831
1861
1891
1921
1951
1981
2011
Uns
erve
d D
eman
d (M
W)
Event Rank
Unserved Energy Event Magnitude
S0 - 2022
S0 - 2022 R35
S1 - 2022
S1 - 2022 R35
S3 - 2022
S3 - 2022 R35
1 in 10
1 in 20
1 in 100
Decreasing the minimum reserves before energy goes unserved had a meaningful impact on results However to maintain alignment with CPUC modeling practices a 6 minimum reserve was maintained
28
Cumulative Age Based Gas Retirementsbull The CPUCrsquos MTR retires 815 MW (NQC) that reaches 40 years of age
bull This retirement is backed out of several scenarios
Source CPUCrsquos Reliability Needs Assessment
Note Due to an error the CHP NQC values were used instead of the reconstructed nameplate capacity decreasing the CHP capacity by 35 MW in 2026 This represents less than 005 of the total capacity in all years and was deemed to be a negligible impact on results
Cumculative (MW NQC) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026Gas Turbine 263 263 263 483 578 Cogen 44 60 66 175 237 TOTAL 307 323 329 659 815
Scenarios
29
30
Resource Build ScenariosWe looked at three core scenario groupings base on the type of resource build1 No Build ndash does not include any new resources beyond the baseline in the
CPUCrsquos Reliability Need Assessment plus some of the summer 2021 procurement (D21-02-028) Identifies the baseline need if no new procurement occurred
2 PSP ndash Resource builds that include the PSP based resource builds3 Order ndash builds based on the procurement orders
1 1505 MW NQC from D19-11-0162 9500 MW NQC through 2025 from D21-06-0353 2000 MW NQC of Long Lead Time Resources in 2026 from D21-06-035 if not
delayed
31
Base Resources (No Build)
- 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
Capacity (MW)
Nameplate Capacity for Resource Adequacy
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Gas-Other Cogen Nuclear
Geothermal Biomass Hydro Pumped Hydro Storage Demand Response
Imports - Unspecified Imports - Specified Wind Solar Energy Storage 4 h
32
Scenario Adjustments (PSP and Order Only)bull + - These scenarios include the 2000 MW NQC of long lead time
resources in 2026 and are typically included in the results and ldquo2026+rdquo
bull Energy ndash These scenarios limit imports in all hours and hold hydro to the min gen level outside of HE 17-22
bull Gas ndash These scenarios add gas capacity at the NQC level of the preferred resources
bull Gas capacity is assumed to have a 11 relationship between NQC and nameplate capacity
bull RELCC ndash These scenarios make use of the ELCC values published by the CPUC in September 2021
33
Scenario Adjustments (PSP and Order Only)bull No Ret ndash These scenarios reverse the age-based gas retirements
included in the CPUCrsquos Reliability Needs Assessmentbull Shift ndash These scenarios shift approximately MW NQC from 2023
to 2022 to eliminate the shortfall in 2022bull B20 ndash These scenarios delay 20 percent of the incremental energy
storage each year to the next year bull PV ndash These scenarios reduce solar output by percent in all hours
34
PSP Scenario Additionsbull The proposed system plan was adapted in two ways
bull Offshore wind was rolled into onshore windbull 1727 MW of capacity counted in the PSP and the baseline resources in the CPUCrsquos
Reliability Need Assessment were removed from the PSP
Old NQC New NQC2022 2753 2603 2023 4916 4970 2024 9907 10778 2025 11712 12879 2026 12012 13128
2026+ 14012 15128
35
PSP Overlap with the Base Resourcesbull 1727 MW of capacity counted in the PSP
and the baseline resources in the CPUCrsquos Reliability Need Assessment were removed from the PSP
bull This capacity was removed in 2022 consistent with the information provided by the CPUC
Nameplate (MW) 2022
Energy Storage 4 h 406
Biomass 15
Geothermal 14
Solar 883
Wind 409
36
Order Scenarios NQC AdditionsResource (MW NQC) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
D19-11-016 NQC Remaining 1070 435 - - - -
2000
2500
D21-06-035 NQC Remaining - 2000 6000 1500 -
Solar Hybrid with 4 Hour Energy - - 1000 2500 2500 Storage
Geothermal 8 Hour Energy Storage
Other Capacity
1000
1000
8505
- - - - -
- - - - -
1070 3505 8505 8505 8505
Total 1070 3505 9505 11005 11005 13005
bull All remaining D19-11-016 NQC was assumed to come online consistent with the order dates
bull Hybrid resources were modeled as separate solar and energy storagebull Geothermal was use as the long lead-time resources with an 80 percent capacity
factor However using other technologies would have a minimal impact on results due to simplifications in the modeling
Incremental Additions
Cumculative Additions
37
Order Scenario Additionsbull Order builds are based on remaining NQC procurement in D19-11-016 (1505
MW NQC) and D21-06-035 (9500 to 11500 MW NQC)bull Resources were built consistent with the 2026 resource ratio in the PSP but only up
to the needed NQC value for each year
Results
38
39
No Build Establishing a Shortfall
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 03114 03031 23689 146389 178386 NA1 in 10 2372 2391 6711 11540 12022 NA1 in 20 3215 3246 7893 12525 12968 NA1 in 100 4817 4774 10351 14065 14662 NA
2026
2022
bull Without additional capacity reliability gets worse
bull The need in each year is approximately the same as the NQC ordered
bull The largest mismatch is in 2022
40
Loss of Load Expectation
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
Order 01938 00403 00019 00066 00115 00007Order Gas 01955 00498 00107 00610 00939 00205Order RELCC 01938 00391 00050 00075 00162 00019Order No Ret 01722 00254 00002 00021 00048 -Order Energy 02023 00413 00004 00064 00114 00010
-
00500
01000
01500
02000
02500
Loss
of
Load
Exp
ecta
tion
Order Scenarios
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
PSP 00813 00079 00001 00018 00049 -PSP Gas 00883 00158 00093 00363 00421 00074PSP Gas RELCC 01067 00124 00034 00104 00200 00022PSP No Ret 00624 00082 00001 00003 00003 -PSP Energy 00766 00086 00003 00018 00027 -
-
00200
00400
00600
00800
01000
01200
Loss
of
Load
Exp
ecta
tion
PSP Scenarios
41
Base Scenarios
42
Outage Durations
43
What time of Day is the Issue
44
Order Shift Scenarios (2022 only)
2022 1200 MW 1300 MW 1400 MW 1600 MW 1800 Mw 2000 MW
LOLE 01086 01062 01062 00804 00741 006151 in 10 122 74 88 - - - 1 in 20 1010 938 908 543 431 202 1 in 100 2702 2652 2691 2062 1945 1805
45
2022 ELCC and Gas Comparison
Negligible difference with ~50 MW difference in the preferred resource build and ~1000 MW less gas capacity by nameplate
Significant difference when reducing the gas capacity by 150 MW
Order
PSP
46
2026 ELCC and Gas Comparison
bull Everything is reliable but the difference between the scenarios is much more pronounced than for 2022
Order
PSP
PSPBase
PSP EnergyLimited Case
47
PSP Energy Limit Scenarios
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 00766 00086 00003 00018 00027 - 1 in 10 - - - - - - 1 in 20 447 - - - - - 1 in 100 2015 - - - - -
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 00813 00079 00001 00018 00049 - 1 in 10 - - - - - - 1 in 20 620 - - - - - 1 in 100 2253 - - - - -
OrderBase
Order Energy Limited Case
48
Order Energy Limit Scenarios
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 01938 00403 00019 00066 00115 00007 1 in 10 1296 - - - - - 1 in 20 2196 - - - - - 1 in 100 3753 1468 - - 377 -
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 02023 00413 00004 00064 00114 00010 1 in 10 1338 - - - - - 1 in 20 2223 - - - - - 1 in 100 3785 1477 - - 333 -
49
Reduced PV Energy (2022 and 2026)
2022 PV0 PV15 PV30 PV45
LOLE 02023 02024 02090 071221 in 10 1338 1325 1485 4083 1 in 20 2223 2199 2374 4872 1 in 100 3785 3871 4265 6614
2026 PV0 PV15 PV30 PV45
LOLE 00114 00137 00259 016871 in 10 - - - 1848 1 in 20 - - - 9216 1 in 100 333 960 6387 15302
2022
2026
No Disruptions
Delay of 20 of Incremental Energy
Storage
50
Battery Supply Chain Disruptions (Order B20)
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 02330 00643 00082 00087 00089 00002 1 in 10 1685 - - - - - 1 in 20 2546 315 - - - - 1 in 100 4146 1991 - - - -
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 01938 00403 00019 00066 00115 00007 1 in 10 1296 - - - - - 1 in 20 2196 - - - - - 1 in 100 3753 1468 - - 377 -
Takeaways
51
52
Takeawaysbull There is a large capacity need without the resources envisioned in
D19-11-016 D21-06-035 andor the proposed PSPbull Assuming no additional gas retirement beyond what is considered in
the analysisbull If the resource build in the PSP is realized reliability concerns are diminished
beginning in 2022 through 2026
bull Capacity ordered through D19-11-016 and D21-06-035 are insufficient to address the potential capacity shortfall in 2022 should be sufficient to diminish reliability concerns from 2023 through 2026
53
Takeawaysbull Thermal capacity was not determined to provide a greater system
reliability benefit than a portfolio of preferred resources with equivalent NQC
bull An annual one-year delay of 20 of storage procurement has a noticeable impact on reliability in 2022 but does not result in an unreliable system in 2023-6
bull Energy sufficiency does not appear to be a limiting factor for system reliability in 2023-6 given the anticipated resource portfolio
Questions
54
Appendix 1Supplemental Scenario Information and
Resource Tables
55
56
Base Resources (No Build)Nameplate (MW) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026Combined Cycle 15781 15781 15781 15781 15781 Gas Turbine 8023 8023 8023 7802 7707 Gas-Other 3109 3109 255 255 255 Cogen 1659 1640 1633 1502 1428 Nuclear 2280 2280 2280 - - Geothermal 1359 1360 1361 1361 1362 Biomass 620 622 624 626 627 Hydro 6457 6457 6457 6457 6457 Pumped Hydro Storage 1579 1579 1579 1579 1579 Demand Response 2195 2195 2195 2195 2195 Imports - Unspecified 5000 5000 4000 4000 4000 Imports - Specified 1981 1981 1981 1592 1600 Wind 6548 6591 6622 6644 6658 Solar 13902 14589 14679 14836 14955 Energy Storage 4 h 1747 2024 2055 2116 2156 Total 72240 73232 69524 66746 66759
57
PSP Scenario Additionsbull The proposed system plan was adapted in two ways
bull Offshore wind was rolled into onshore windbull 1727 MW of capacity counted in the PSP and the baseline resources in the CPUCrsquos
Reliability Need Assessment were removed from the PSP
Nameplate (MW) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+Geothermal - 100 100 100 170 1319 Biomass 19 50 68 92 92 92 Shed DR 151 151 353 441 441 441 Wind 1310 1332 1662 3144 3264 3264 Solar 2211 5666 6867 10117 10117 10117 Energy Storage 4 h 2159 4198 10211 12147 12147 12147 Energy Storage 8 h - - - - 196 1196 Total 5850 11497 19261 26041 26427 1852
NQC 2753 4916 9907 11712 12012 14012
58
Procurement Scenario Additionsbull Procurement builds are based on remaining NQC procurement in D19-11-016 (1505 MW NQC) and D21-
06-035 (9500 to 11500 MW NQC)bull Resources were built consistent with the 2026 resource ratio in the PSP but only up to the needed NQC value
for each yearbull Uses the Marginal ELCC Values from the CPUCrsquos Reliability Needs Assessment
Nameplate (MW) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+Geothermal 8 25 77 92 92 1241 Biomass 7 23 71 85 85 85 Shed DR 34 111 340 408 408 408 Wind 242 794 2427 2908 2908 2908 Solar 780 2554 7811 9356 9356 9356 Energy Storage 4 h 936 3066 9378 11233 11233 11233 Energy Storage 8 h - - - - - 1000 Total 2007 6573 20105 24082 24082 26231
NQC 1070 3505 9505 11005 11005 13005
59
Procurement Scenario Additions New ELCCbull Procurement builds are based on remaining NQC procurement in D19-11-016 (1505 MW NQC) and D21-
06-035 (9500 to 11500 MW NQC)bull Resources were built consistent with the 2026 resource ratio in the PSP but only up to the needed NQC value
for each yearbull Uses the ELCC values published by the CPUC in September 2021
Nameplate (MW) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+Geothermal 8 26 73 86 86 1231 Biomass 7 24 67 79 79 79 Shed DR 35 114 321 381 381 381 Wind 248 814 2286 2714 2714 2714 Solar 800 2619 7355 8733 8733 8733 Energy Storage 4 h 960 3145 8831 10485 10485 10485 Energy Storage 8 h - - - - - 1279 Total 2058 6742 18932 22478 22478 24902
NQC 1070 3505 9505 11005 11005 13005
Appendix 2Additional Results
60
61
LOLE Summarybull Empty cells represent
year and scenario combinations that were not run
Scenario Name 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
No Build 03114 03031 23689 146389 178386 PSP 00813 00079 00001 00018 00049 - PSP Gas 00883 00158 00093 00363 00421 00074 PSP Gas RELCC 01067 00124 00034 00104 00200 00022 PSP No Ret 00624 00082 00001 00003 00003 - PSP Energy 00766 00086 00003 00018 00027 - Order 01938 00403 00019 00066 00115 00007 Order 1200 Shift 01086 Order 1300 Shift 01062 Order 1400 Shift 01062 Order 1600 Shift 00804 Order 1800 Shift 00741 Order 2000 Shift 00615 Order Gas 01955 00498 00107 00610 00939 00205 Order RELCC 01938 00391 00050 00075 00162 00019 Order No Ret 01722 00254 00002 00021 00048 - Order Energy 02023 00413 00004 00064 00114 00010 Order Energy PV15 02024 00137 Order Energy PV30 02090 00259 Order Energy PV45 07122 01687 Order B20 02330 00643 00082 00087 00089 00002 Order RELCC B20 02228 00551 00106 00120 00146 00017
62
1 in 10 SummaryScenario Name 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
No Build 2372 2391 6711 11540 12022 NAPSP - - - - - - PSP Gas - - - - - - PSP Gas RELCC 90 - - - - - PSP No Ret - - - - - - PSP Energy - - - - - - Order 1296 - - - - - Order 1200 Shift 122 Order 1300 Shift 74 Order 1400 Shift 88 Order 1600 Shift - Order 1800 Shift - Order 2000 Shift - Order Gas 1305 - - - - - Order RELCC 1350 - - - - - Order No Ret 1028 - - - - - Order Energy 1338 - - - - - Order Energy PV15 1325 - Order Energy PV30 1485 - Order Energy PV45 4083 1848 Order B20 1685 - - - - - Order RELCC B20 1675 - - - - -
bull Empty cells represent year and scenario combinations that were not run
63
1 in 20 Summarybull Red cells are where the
LOLE exceeds 01bull Yellow cells have an LOLE
between 005 and 01bull Empty cells represent
year and scenario combinations that were not run
Scenario Name 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
No Build 3215 3246 7893 12525 12968 NAPSP 620 - - - - - PSP Gas 668 - - - - - PSP Gas RELCC 982 - - - - - PSP No Ret 242 - - - - - PSP Energy 447 - - - - - Order 2196 - - - - - Order 1200 Shift 1010 Order 1300 Shift 938 Order 1400 Shift 908 Order 1600 Shift 543 Order 1800 Shift 431 Order 2000 Shift 202 Order Gas 2153 - - 271 930 - Order RELCC 2314 - - - - - Order No Ret 1932 - - - - - Order Energy 2223 - - - - - Order Energy PV15 2199 - Order Energy PV30 2374 - Order Energy PV45 4872 9216 Order B20 2546 315 - - - - Order RELCC B20 2453 98 - - - -
64
1 in 100 Summarybull Empty cells represent
year and scenario combinations that were not run
Scenario Name 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
No Build 4817 4774 10351 14065 14662 NAPSP 2253 - - - - - PSP Gas 2192 393 - 1301 1427 - PSP Gas RELCC 2774 184 - 25 658 - PSP No Ret 2016 - - - - - PSP Energy 2015 - - - - - Order 3753 1468 - - 377 - Order 1200 Shift 2702 Order 1300 Shift 2652 Order 1400 Shift 2691 Order 1600 Shift 2062 Order 1800 Shift 1945 Order 2000 Shift 1805 Order Gas 3781 1632 44 1893 2533 855 Order RELCC 4021 1259 - - 495 - Order No Ret 3580 948 - - - - Order Energy 3785 1477 - - 333 - Order Energy PV15 3871 960 Order Energy PV30 4265 6387 Order Energy PV45 6614 15302 Order B20 4146 1991 - - - - Order RELCC B20 3995 1865 69 171 428 -
65
No Build
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 03114 03031 23689 146389 178386 NA1 in 10 2372 2391 6711 11540 12022 NA1 in 20 3215 3246 7893 12525 12968 NA1 in 100 4817 4774 10351 14065 14662 NA
66
PSP
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 00813 00079 00001 00018 00049 - 1 in 10 - - - - - - 1 in 20 620 - - - - - 1 in 100 2253 - - - - -
67
PSP Gas
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 00883 00158 00093 00363 00421 00074 1 in 10 - - - - - - 1 in 20 668 - - - - - 1 in 100 2192 393 - 1301 1427 -
68
PSP Gas RELCC
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 01067 00124 00034 00104 00200 00022 1 in 10 90 - - - - - 1 in 20 982 - - - - - 1 in 100 2774 184 - 25 658 -
69
PSP No Ret
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 00624 00082 00001 00003 00003 - 1 in 10 - - - - - - 1 in 20 242 - - - - - 1 in 100 2016 - - - - -
70
PSP Energy
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 00766 00086 00003 00018 00027 - 1 in 10 - - - - - - 1 in 20 447 - - - - - 1 in 100 2015 - - - - -
71
Order
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 01938 00403 00019 00066 00115 00007 1 in 10 1296 - - - - - 1 in 20 2196 - - - - - 1 in 100 3753 1468 - - 377 -
72
Order Shift (2022 only)
2022 1200 MW 1300 MW 1400 MW 1600 MW 1800 Mw 2000 MW
LOLE 01086 01062 01062 00804 00741 006151 in 10 122 74 88 - - - 1 in 20 1010 938 908 543 431 202 1 in 100 2702 2652 2691 2062 1945 1805
73
Order Gas
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 01955 00498 00107 00610 00939 00205 1 in 10 1305 - - - - - 1 in 20 2153 - - 271 930 - 1 in 100 3781 1632 44 1893 2533 855
74
Order RELCC
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 01938 00391 00050 00075 00162 00019 1 in 10 1350 - - - - - 1 in 20 2314 - - - - - 1 in 100 4021 1259 - - 495 -
75
Order Energy
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 02023 00413 00004 00064 00114 00010 1 in 10 1338 - - - - - 1 in 20 2223 - - - - - 1 in 100 3785 1477 - - 333 -
76
Order Energy PV (2022 and 2026 Only)
2022 PV0 PV15 PV30 PV45
LOLE 02023 02024 02090 071221 in 10 1338 1325 1485 4083 1 in 20 2223 2199 2374 4872 1 in 100 3785 3871 4265 6614
2026 PV0 PV15 PV30 PV45
LOLE 00114 00137 00259 016871 in 10 - - - 1848 1 in 20 - - - 9216 1 in 100 333 960 6387 15302
77
Order B20
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 02330 00643 00082 00087 00089 00002 1 in 10 1685 - - - - - 1 in 20 2546 315 - - - - 1 in 100 4146 1991 - - - -
78
Order RELCC B20
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 02228 00551 00106 00120 00146 00017 1 in 10 1675 - - - - - 1 in 20 2453 98 - - - - 1 in 100 3995 1865 69 171 428 -
79
Order No Ret
Value 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026+
LOLE 01722 00254 00002 00021 00048 - 1 in 10 1028 - - - - - 1 in 20 1932 - - - - - 1 in 100 3580 948 - - - -
- Midterm Reliability Modeling
- Workshop Purpose
- Agenda
- Purpose
- This Study
- Important Note
- A Note on the Presentation Of Results
- Unserved Energy Event Duration Curves
- Continuing with the Curves
- Inputs and Assumptions
- General Inputs
- Demand
- Wind and Solar
- Wind and Solar
- Hydroelectric Plants
- Hydroelectric Min Gen Scenarios
- Demand Response
- Demand Response and the Reserves
- Imports
- Primary ELCC Values
- Revised ELCC Values
- Technology Factors
- What the ELCC and TF Mean for Capacity
- Forced Outages
- Forced Outage Unit Size Impact
- Reserves
- Reserve Requirement Test
- Cumulative Age Based Gas Retirements
- Scenarios
- Resource Build Scenarios
- Base Resources (No Build)
- Scenario Adjustments (PSP and Order Only)
- Scenario Adjustments (PSP and Order Only)
- PSP Scenario Additions
- PSP Overlap with the Base Resources
- Order Scenarios NQC Additions
- Order Scenario Additions
- Results
- No Build Establishing a Shortfall
- Loss of Load Expectation
- Base Scenarios
- Outage Durations
- What time of Day is the Issue
- Order Shift Scenarios (2022 only)
- 2022 ELCC and Gas Comparison
- 2026 ELCC and Gas Comparison
- PSP Energy Limit Scenarios
- Order Energy Limit Scenarios
- Reduced PV Energy (2022 and 2026)
- Battery Supply Chain Disruptions (Order B20)
- Takeaways
- Takeaways
- Takeaways
- Questions
- Appendix 1Supplemental Scenario Information and Resource Tables
- Base Resources (No Build)
- PSP Scenario Additions
- Procurement Scenario Additions
- Procurement Scenario Additions New ELCC
- Appendix 2Additional Results
- LOLE Summary
- 1 in 10 Summary
- 1 in 20 Summary
- 1 in 100 Summary
- No Build
- PSP
- PSP Gas
- PSP Gas RELCC
- PSP No Ret
- PSP Energy
- Order
- Order Shift (2022 only)
- Order Gas
- Order RELCC
- Order Energy
- Order Energy PV (2022 and 2026 Only)
- Order B20
- Order RELCC B20
- Order No Ret
-
Resource (MW NQC) | | 2022 | | 2023 | | 2024 | | 2025 | | 2026 | | 2026+ | |
|
D19-11-016 NQC Remaining | | 1070 | | 435 | | - | | - | | - | | - | |
|
D21-06-035 NQC Remaining | | - | | 2000 | | 6000 | | 1500 | | - | | 2000 | |
|
Solar Hybrid with 4 Hour Energy Storage | | - | | - | | 1000 | | 2500 | | 2500 | | 2500 | |
|
Geothermal | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | 1000 | |
|
8 Hour Energy Storage | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | 1000 | |
|
Other Capacity | | 1070 | | 3505 | | 8505 | | 8505 | | 8505 | | 8505 | |
|
Total | | 1070 | | 3505 | | 9505 | | 11005 | | 11005 | | 13005 | |