Presentation downloadable from 1 John Harrison B.Sc. B.Ec. FCPA TecEco Managing Director Facing the Sustainability Challenge Seminar 11.

11Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com

John Harrison B.Sc. B.Ec. FCPATecEco Managing Director

Facing the Facing the Sustainability Sustainability Challenge Challenge SeminarSeminar1111thth June 2008 June 2008

Making the Right Decisions for the Long Term


The AtmosphereThe Atmosphere

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Yrs

CFC CO2 CH4 PCBs SO2 Water PM10

Emission

Lifetime in Atmosphere

High Low

Source: Sam Nelson Greenbase

Source: IPCC

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth's_atmosphere 17 Feb 08

Even if the annual flow of emissions was frozen today, the level of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere would still reach double its pre-industrial levels by 2050. In fact, emissions are increasing rapidly and the level of 550 ppm could be reached as early as 2035.

Stern review Executive Summary Page 3 para 6

The Challenge is to Keep the Atmosphere Stable. To do this we must take a long term view and engineer a new way for us to live.


COCO22 in the Atmosphere in the AtmosphereGigaton CO2

Year

BAUEmissions

450 ppm

?

?

CO2 in the Atmosphere


Balancing CO2 in the AtmosphereBalancing CO2 in the Atmosphere The problem is fundamentally one of CO2 balance,

not emissions There are two ways the CO2 in the atmosphere

can be balanced• By reducing emissions.• By using (sequestering) at least as much carbon as we

produce. Both strategies require

• technological change on a scale never before imagined.• A high long term high price for carbon to drive

investment that will result in this change.


Where are we?Where are we? The Kyoto Protocol

• A treaty intended to implement the objectives and principles agreed in the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

• Requires governments to agree to quantified limits on their greenhouse gas emissions, through sequential rounds of negotiations for successive commitment periods.

• The Kyoto treaty is the result of political negotiation and diplomatic compromise and on the surface not a lot more than short term promises to reduce emissions that make politicians look good, but that their successors cannot possibly keep.

• The Kyoto treaty is not a viable strategy for survival in the future - A treaty agreeing to a long term plan is required.

Constraint• With lots of silly “targets” with no strategy for their achievement

Talk about Carbon Capture and Storage• Not a lot else


World Economic Growth and Energy IntensityWorld Economic Growth and Energy Intensity

Source: DOE – Energy Information Administration at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/carbonemiss/chapter1.html

GDP is rising on a per capita basis and because of population growth. At the same time due to technological improvements that have resulted in increasing thermodynamic efficiencies as well as some sectoral change energy consumption per unit of GDP (energy intensity) has been falling. As a result emissions have not been rising as fast as GDP.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/carbonemiss/chapter1.html


The Correlation Between WIP and EmissionsThe Correlation Between WIP and Emissions

World Industrial Product (deflated world `GDP' in real value - i.e. World physical production).

CO2 emissions (in CO2 mass units: Doubling time = 29 years. Data: CDIAC; statistics: GDI.

The correlation between the WIP and the CO2 emissions is still however very high.

Source: Di Fazio, Alberto, The fallacy of pure efficiency gain measures to control future climate change, Astronomical Observatory of Rome and the Global Dynamics Institute


The correlation between emissions and GDP is high because:• Fossil fuels supply > 90% of the world's

energy.• Energy is used to produce goods (WIP)• Only in recent years

have we been seriously trying to improve efficiency (most of the Kyoto effort)

there has been a shift to services with lower CO2 intensity

Energy ~ Money ?

The Correlation Between WIP and EmissionsThe Correlation Between WIP and Emissions


The Limits to Efficiency ImprovementsThe Limits to Efficiency ImprovementsThere are may ways the second law of thermodynamics can be enunciated but relevant to us is Lord Kelvin’s version.

“It is impossible to convert heat completely into work”

Using Carnot’s law it is possible to calculate the theoretical maximum efficiency of any heat engine such as a power station turbine or engine of a car, bus or train. (Try the calculator at http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/carnot.html)

Most heat engines run at much lower efficiencies than the theoretical limit so there is still scope for improvements however the law of diminishing returns applies in terms of cost.

http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/carnot.html


Efficiency Limitations to Emissions ReductionEfficiency Limitations to Emissions Reduction

Per capita emissions reduction through Pilzer 1st law substitution(Technology change = resource use change)

Rate of Per Capita Emissions Reduction

The Future2008

Per capita emissions reduction through thermodynamic efficiency

Total per capita emissions reduction

Conclusion: It is essential that R& D into substitution technologies occurs now in order to ramp up Pilzer first law substitution later and avoid thermodynamic constraints. This is not happening in Australia


What We Don’t Want to Talk AboutWhat We Don’t Want to Talk About

Developed Countries

Undeveloped Countries

Global population, consumption per capita and our footprint on the planet are continuing to rise strongly.

?

?

A Planet in Crisis

Dem

ogra

phic E

xplo

sion

=>

The paradox: Affluence = Population Control


Kyoto Strategies are not WorkingKyoto Strategies are not Working

Assuming Kyoto commitments are met (which is unlikely) it is estimated that global emissions will be 41% higher in 2010 than in 1990, 1% less than without Kyoto.

A solution is needed of the utmost urgency to preserve history for many, many generations to come.

Sir Richard Branson at the launch of the Virgin Earth Prize

Ford M, Matyseka M, et al. (2006). Perspectives on international climate policy. Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society 50th Annual Conference, Sydney, ABARE. www.aares.info/files/2006_matysek.pdf.

“We are tracking on worst case scenarios.”Whetton, P, Leader, Climate Impacts & Risk Group, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Vic, Australia in presentation “Climate Change: What is the science telling us? “


Fossil Fuel Usage Continues to RiseFossil Fuel Usage Continues to Rise


Oil will However DeclineOil will However Decline

The current round of inflation has less to do with dangerous underlying demand than with real shortages in oil. Crippling our economy by cranking up interest rates is about the most stupid thing a government can do as the economy needs to be in good shape to adapt to resource use change.

Where is the R & D for oil replacement?


Frightening Graphs from ABAREFrightening Graphs from ABARE

Global primary energy consumption projections

Global primary energy consumption fuel mix

Composition of Aust Government energy research and development in 2002

Global primary energy consumption by fuel mix, 2050


Global greenhouse gas emissions

Sources of abatement: global technology + partnership CCS

Ford M, Matyseka M, et al. (2006). Perspectives on international climate policy. Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society 50th Annual Conference, Sydney, ABARE. www.aares.info/files/2006_matysek.pdf.

More Frightening Graphs from ABAREMore Frightening Graphs from ABARE

An over emphasis on geosequestration (CCS)?


Reducing the CO2 in the air Reducing the CO2 in the air without Curtailing GDPwithout Curtailing GDP The challenge is to find ways of reducing

CO2 in the air without negatively impacting the economy.• Substitution to Non Fossil Fuel Sources of

Energy Geothermal, Wind, Solar etc. Nuclear

• Sequestration on a Massive Scale Geo-sequestration (clean coal, hydrogen fuel etc.) -

limited Anthropogenic sequestration in the built environment

- our preferred option


GeosequestrationGeosequestration Is not safe due to leakage (China recently?) Is not likely to be ready before 2015 for coal

fired power stations in Australia Authoritative published studies estimate the

cost of geosequestration at between $30-$140/tCO2. (a wide range due to so many uncertainties)

Added to the cost of coal or hydrogen, these sources of energy with geosequestration may be more expensive that alternatives.

A long term plan would included the required R & D now


Affect of Leakage on GeosequestrationAffect of Leakage on Geosequestration

Source: CANA (2004). Carbon Leakage and Geosequestration, Climate Action Network Australia.

"The assumption of exclusive reliance on storage may be an extreme one, however the example illustrates that emphasis on energy efficiency and increased reliance on renewable energy must be priority areas for greenhouse gas mitigation. The higher the expected leakage rate and the larger the uncertainty, the less attractive geosequestration is compared to other mitigation alternatives such as shifting to renewable energy sources, and improved efficiency in production and consumption of energy."

Downloadable Model at http://www.tececo.com/files/spreadsheets/GaiaEngineeringVGeoSequestrationV1_26Apr08.xls


SynopsisSynopsis

We must accept our long term role of maintaining “spaceship earth” as planetary engineers and find ways of maintaining the level of carbon dioxide, oxygen and other gases in the atmosphere at desirable levels.

We cannot possibly arrest the alarming increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide currently occurring through efficiency, emissions reduction (constraint) or substitution alone

Geo-sequestration is at best short term and at worst highly risky. What would have happened recently if the Chinese were using the technology?

We have a good chance of preserving the future if we mimic nature and find profitable uses for carbon and other wastes.


SynopsisSynopsis Uses for carbon and other wastes must be economically driven and result in

a real value that puts profit in the pocket of a large number who will as a consequence wish to engage otherwise they cannot be implemented on the massive scale required.

Anthropogenic sequestration as man made carbonate in the built environment is a new technology platform that has the promise of profitably sequestering massive amounts of carbon profitably.

The markets created for man made carbonate in buildings are insatiable, large enough and indefinitely continuing.

Anthropogenic sequestration by building with man made carbonate is doable and most likely presents the only option we have for saving the planet from runaway climate change until such time as safe and reliable forms of energy alternative to fossil fuels can be developed

Anthropogenic sequestration by building with man made carbonate must be part of any long term planetary maintenance strategy.


Learning to Use Carbon - Geomimicry Learning to Use Carbon - Geomimicry for Planetary Engineers?for Planetary Engineers?

Large tonnages of carbon (7% of the crust) were put away during earth’s geological history as limestone, dolomite and magnesite, mostly by the activity of plants and animals.• Orders of magnitude more than as coal or petroleum!

Shellfish built shells from carbon and trees turn it into wood.

These same plants and animals wasted nothing• The waste from one is the food or home for another.

Because of the colossal size of the flows involved the answer to the problems of greenhouse gas and waste is to use them both in an insatiable, large and indefinitely continuing market.

Such a market exists for building and construction materials.


Geomimicry for Planetary Engineers?Geomimicry for Planetary Engineers? The required paradigm shift in resource usage

will not occur because it is the right thing to do. Can only happen economically. To put an economic value on carbon and

wastes• We have not choice but to invent new technical

paradigms such as offered by TecEco and the Global Sustainability Alliance (Gaia Engineering).

• Evolving culturally to effectively use these technical paradigms

By using carbon dioxide and other wastes as building materials we can economically reduce their concentration in the global commons.


Size of Carbon SinksSize of Carbon Sinks

Modified from Figure 2 Ziock, H. J. and D. P. Harrison. "Zero Emission Coal Power, a New Concept." from http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/proceedings/01/carbon_seq/2b2.pdf by the inclusion of a bar to represent sedimentary sinks


Carbonate sediment40,000,000 Gt

Fossil Fuels 8,000 Gt

Soils and Detritus 1600 Gt

Plants 600 Gt

Methane Clathrates100,000 Gt

Sequestration Permanence and time

Carbon Sink PermanenceCarbon Sink Permanence


Anthropogenic Sequestration of Carbon and WastesAnthropogenic Sequestration of Carbon and Wastes During earth's geological history large tonnages of carbon

were put away as limestone and other carbonates and as coal and petroleum by the activity of plants and animals.

Sequestering carbon in calcium and magnesium carbonate materials and other wastes in the built environment mimics nature in that carbon is used in the homes or skeletal structures of most plants and animals.

In eco-cement concretes the binder is carbonate and the aggregates are preferably carbonates and wastes. This is “geomimicry”

CO2

C

CO2

Waste

CO2

CO2

Pervious pavement


GeomimicryGeomimicry There are 1.2-3 grams of

magnesium and about .4 grams of calcium in every litre of seawater.

There is enoughcalcium and magnesiumin seawater with replenishmentto last billions of years at current needs for sequestration.

To survive we must build our homes like these seashells using CO2 and alkali metal cations. This is geomimicry

Carbonate sediments such as these cliffs represent billionsof years of sequestrationand cover 7% - 8% of the crust.


Anthropogenic Sequestration Using Gaia Anthropogenic Sequestration Using Gaia Engineering will Modify the Carbon CycleEngineering will Modify the Carbon Cycle

Photosynthesis by plants and

algae

Consumed by heterotrophs

(mainly animals)

Organic compounds made

by autotrophs

Organic compounds made by heterotrophs

Cellular Respiration

Cellular Respiration burning and

decay

Limestone coal and oil

burning

Gaia Engineering, (Greensols, TecEco

Kiln and Eco-Cements)

Decay by fungi and bacteria

CO2 in the air and water

More about Gaia Engineering athttp://www.tececo.com.au/simple.gaiaengineering_summary.php


Building and Construction Represents an Insatiable, Building and Construction Represents an Insatiable, Large and Indefinitely Continuing Market for Large and Indefinitely Continuing Market for Anthropogenic SequestrationAnthropogenic Sequestration

The built environment is made of materials and is our footprint on earth.• It comprises buildings and infrastructure.

Construction materials comprise• 70% of materials flows (buildings, infrastructure etc.)• 40-50% of waste that goes to landfill (15 % of new

materials going to site are wasted.) Around 50 billion tonnes of building materials are used

annually on a world wide basis. The single biggest materials flow (after water) is concrete at

around 18 billion tonnes or > 2 tonnes per man, woman and child on the planet.

40% of total energy in the industrialised world (researchandmarkets)

Why not use magnesium carbonate aggregates and building components from Greensols and Eco-Cements from TecEco to bind them together?


Only the Built Environment is Big EnoughOnly the Built Environment is Big Enough

Source of graphics: Nic Svenningson UNEP SMB2007

The built environment is our footprint, the major proportion of the techno-sphere and our lasting legacy on the planet. It comprises buildings and infrastructure


Economically Driven Technological ChangeEconomically Driven Technological Change

New, more profitable technical paradigms are required that result in more sustainable and usually more efficient moleconomic flows that mimic natural flows or better, reverse our damaging flows.$ - ECONOMICS - $

Change is only possible economically. It will not happen because it is necessary or right.


Consider Sustainability as Where Consider Sustainability as Where Culture and Technology MeetCulture and Technology Meet

Increase in demand/price ratio for greater sustainability due to cultural change.

#

$

Demand

Supply

Increase in supply/price ratio for more sustainable products due to technical innovation.

Equilibrium

ShiftECONOMICSGreater Value/for impact (Sustainability) and economic growth

A measure of the degree of sustainability is where the demand for more sustainable technologies is met by their supply.

We must rapidly move both the supply and demand curves for sustainability


Changing the Technology ParadigmChanging the Technology Paradigm

“By enabling us to make productive use of particular raw materials, technology determines what constitutes a physical resource1”

1.Pilzer, Paul Zane, Unlimited Wealth, The Theory and Practice of Economic Alchemy, Crown Publishers Inc. New York.1990

It is not so much a matter of “dematerialisation” or constraint as a question of changing the underlying moleconomic flows. We need materials that require less energy to make them, do not pollute the environment with CO2 and other releases, last much longer and that contribute properties that reduce lifetime energies. The key is to change the technology paradigms

Or more simply – the technical paradigm determines what is or is not a resource!


Cultural Change is Happening!Cultural Change is Happening! Al Gore (SOS) CSIRO reports STERN Report Lots of Talkfest IPCC Report Political change Branson Prize Live Earth

(07/07/07) The media have an important growing role


Why Magnesium Carbonates?Why Magnesium Carbonates? Because of the low molecular weight of

magnesium, it is ideal for scrubbing CO2 out of the air and sequestering the gas into the built environment:

Due to the lighter molar mass of magnesium more CO2 is captured than in calcium systems as the calculations below show.

At 2.09% of the crust magnesium is the 8th most abundant element

Sea-water contains 1.29 g/l compared to calcium at .412 g/l

Magnesium compounds have low pH and polar bond in composites making them suitable for the utilisation of other wastes.

%5284

44

3

2

MgCO

CO %43101

44

3

2

CaCO

CO

Seawater Reference Data

g/l H20

Cation

radius

(pm)

Chloride (Cl--) 19 167

Sodium (Na+) 10.5 116

Sulfate (S04--) 2.7 ?

Magnesium (Mg++) 1.29 86

Calcium (Ca++)0.41

2 114

Potassium (K+)

0.399 152


Making Carbonate Building Materials to Making Carbonate Building Materials to Solve the Global Warming ProblemSolve the Global Warming Problem

Magnesium materials from Gaia Engineering are potential low cost. New kiln technology from TecEco will enable easy low cost simple non fossil fuel calcination of magnesium carbonate to make binders with the CO2 recycling to produce more carbonate building material to be used with these binders.

How much magnesium carbonate would have to be deposited to solve the problem of global warming?

• The annual flux of CO2 is around 12 billion tonnes ~= 22.99 billion tonnes magnesite

• The density of magnesite is 3 gm/cm3 or 3 tonne/metre3 22.9/3 billion cubic metres ~= 7.63 cubic kilometres of

magnesite would have to be deposited each year. Compared to the over seven cubic kilometres of concrete we

make every year, the problem of global warming looks surmountable.

If magnesite was our building material of choice and we could make it without releases as is the case with Gaia Engineering, we have the problem as good as solved!

Anthropogenic sequestration - building with carbonate and waste is

the answer


Gaia Engineering Process DiagramGaia Engineering Process Diagram

Extraction Process

Fossil fuels

Solar or solar derived energy

Oil

MgO

CO2

Coal

CO2

CO2

CO2

Inputs:

Atmospheric or industrial CO2,brines, waste acid or bitterns, other wastes

Outputs:

Carbonate building materials, potable water, valuable commodity salts.

Carbon or carbon compoundsMagnesium compounds

1.29 gm/l Mg.412 gm/l Ca

Gaia Engineering delivers profitable outcomes whilst reversing underlying undesirable moleconomic flows from other less sustainable techno-processes outside the tececology.

TecEco MgCO2

Cycle

Carbonate building components

Eco-Cement

TecEcoKiln

MgCO3

Gaia Engineering Flow ChartGaia Engineering Flow Chart

Built Environment

MgCO3

and CaCO3

“Stone”

Extraction

Valuable Commodity Salts or hydrochloric acid.

Industrial CO2 MgO

TecEco

Tec-Kiln

Eco-Cements

Buildingcomponents & aggregates

TecEcoCementManufacture

CaO

Clays

Portland CementManufacture

Brine or Seawater

Tec-Cements

Building waste

Other waste

WasteAcid or Bitterns

Fresh Water

Extraction inputs and outputs depending on method chosen


A Replacement for KyotoA Replacement for Kyoto Must be

• More than a promissory system.• Dynamically adaptable

Provide for• Planning• Support for R & D on a new and different non commercial

model• Technical assistance

Indicate a long term price for carbon• So that today's decisions result in the investment required

in tomorrow's technologies Not impose

• A financial burden on the economy• An administrative burden on participants

Address• Scope 3 emissions

Presentation downloadable from 1 John Harrison B.Sc. B.Ec. FCPA TecEco Managing Director Facing the Sustainability Challenge Seminar 11.

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