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Dr.Balraj Kistow Lok Jack GSB
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Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Jan 19, 2017

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Page 1: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Dr.Balraj KistowLok Jack GSB

Page 2: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

The Global Competitive Report• Produced by the World

Economic Forum

• Based on the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI)

• Captures information on the micro and macro economic foundations of national competitiveness.

Page 3: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Relevance and Importance

• Provides decision-makers with an assessment of the factors that enable economies to achieve sustained economic growth and long term prosperity.

• Provides benchmark tools to identify obstacles to improved competitiveness at a national level.

• Performance assessed at a global level – information collected for 138 countries.

Page 4: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Competitiveness

The set of institutions, policies, and factors that determine the level of productivity of a country.

Page 5: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Effect of Productivity

Productivity

Higher Income

The level of productivity, in turn, sets the level of prosperity that can be earned by an economy.

Page 6: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Implied Framework National

Competitiveness

Firm Competitiveness

Enabling Environment

Firms compete not nations.

Government largely responsible for the raw conditions

Page 7: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017
Page 8: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Classification

Page 9: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017
Page 10: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

1. Rank - out of total participants

2. Scores out of 7I. Overall Score – weighted average of 12 pillarsII. Sub-indices and Pillar III. Indicators

3. Problematic factors for doing business

The Results

Page 11: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Report HighlightsGCI 2016/17

Page 12: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Competitiveness Agendas to Reignite Growth

• Launched at a time of:• Rising income inequality,

• Slow productivity growth

• Mounting social and political tensions, and;

• Uncertainty fuelled by: • financial market fragility, geopolitical tensions, slow growth and

high debt in emerging economies.

Page 13: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Global Growth

• Growth remains persistently low:

• Commodity prices have fallen

• Trade has declined

• External imbalances are increasing

• Government finances are stressed.

Page 14: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Geopolitical Crossroads

More inward-looking policies & mounting protectionist pressures

General questioning of the premises underlying globalization (Brexit)

Stagnating and unequally distributed income growth

Slowing Productivity Growth Rising Income Inequality Aging Population

Page 15: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017
Page 16: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Fourth Industrial Revolution

• Based on digital platforms

• Characterized by a convergence of technologies that is blurring the lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres

• New avenues of growth:• artificial intelligence, biotechnology, robotics, the

Internet of Things, and 3D printing

Page 17: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017
Page 18: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Trinidad and Tobago

• Innovation Driven economy - Stage 3

• GDP (US$ billions) - 24.6

• Per Capita Income (2015) - $US18,058 (2014) - $US21,311

(Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database)

Page 19: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Overall Rank

Page 20: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Web of Pillars

Trinidad and Tobago is on par or better in 10 of the 12 pillars when compared to other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Page 21: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Web 2015 & 2016

Page 22: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Barbados Jamaica Trinidad and Tobago

Caribbean Comparison

Page 23: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Sub-Indices & Pillars 2016 -2017 2015-2016 2014-2015

Rank Score Rank Score Rank Score

Basic Requirements 82 4.4 62 4.6 52 4.8

1st pillar: Institutions 107 3.4 108 3.4 95 3.5

2nd pillar: Infrastructure 54 4.3 51 4.5 52 4.5

3rd pillar: Macroeconomic environment 114 3.9 54 4.9 38 5.4

4th pillar: Health and primary education 61 5.9 60 5.9 59 5.9

Efficiency Enhancers 76 4.0 78 3.9 81 3.9

5th pillar: Higher education and training 74 4.3 73 4.3 77 4.2

6th pillar: Goods market efficiency 103 4.0 104 4.1 101 4.1

7th pillar: Labor market efficiency 89 4.0 96 4.0 96 4.0

8th pillar: Financial market development 61 4.1 56 4.0 52 4.3

9th pillar: Technological readiness 50 4.7 59 4.2 64 4.0

10th pillar: Market size 99 3.0 102 3.0 112 2.9

Innovation and Sophistication Factors 83 3.5 81 3.5 88 3.5

11th pillar: Business sophistication 67 3.9 68 3.9 69 3.9

12th pillar: Innovation 105 3.0 101 3.1 100 3.0

Page 24: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Microeconomic Environment 2016-2017 2015-2016 2014-2015 2013-2014

Value Rank Value Rank Value Rank Value Rank

Overall 3.9 114 4.9 54 5.4 38 52 5.1

Government surplus/deficit (% GDP) -9.5 128 -4 92 -2.3 58 -1.6 51

National savings rate (% GDP) 8.0 128 22.1 58 24.2 46 25.6 43

Inflation (annual % change) 4.7 96 7.0 118 5.2 93 9.3 129

Government debt (% GDP) 51.1 74 37.6 57 30.6 37 39.7 68

Country Credit Ratings (1 - 100 best) 49 63 46 64.7 42 62.6 43

Page 25: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Institutions 2016-2017 2015-2016 2014-2015

Rank Value Rank Value Rank Value

Overall 107 4.3 108 3.4 3.5 95

1.01 Property rights 87 4.1 4 85 4.1 69

1.02 Intellectual property protection 98 3.6 3.4 99 3.2 94

1.03 Diversion of public funds 114 2.6 2.4 124 2.5 114

1.04 Public trust of politicians 118 1.9 1.8 128 2 123

1.05 Irregular Payment & Bribes 102 3.3 3.3 104 3.3 106

1.06 Judicial independence 55 4.2 4.3 51 4.6 41

1.07 Favoritism in decisions of government officials 134 1.9 1.9 137 2.1 137

1.08 Wastefulness of government spending 107 2.5 2.5 112 2.5 114

1.09 Burden of government regulation 87 3.2 3.3 77 3.5 70

1.10 Efficiency of legal framework in settling disputes 106 3.0 3.2 97 3.5 83

1.11 Efficiency of legal framework in challenging regs 95 3.0 3.1 94 3.1 90

1.12 Transparency of government policymaking 80 4.0 3.8 90 3.7 98

1.13 Business costs of terrorism 74 5.2 5.3 75 5.4 63

1.14 Business costs of crime and violence 132 2.5 2.4 136 2.3 141

1.14 Organized crime 116 3.8 3.9 117 4 112

1.16 Reliability of police services 126 2.8 3.1 116 3.1 117

1.17 Ethical behavior of firms 123 3.1 3.2 125 3.4 125

1.18 Strength of auditing and reporting standards 83 4.3 4.3 91 4.3 87

1.19 Efficacy of corporate boards 90 4.7 4.3 101 4.1 110

1.20 Protection of minority shareholders’ interests 111 3.6 3.4 118 3.5 116

1.21 Strength of Investor Protection 36 6.3 5.8 55 6.7 22

Page 26: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017
Page 27: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Productivity

Competitiveness

Long term Prosperity

Culture of Action/Inaction based

on relationship & Interest, not policy or

protocols

Institutional Inertia

Lack of Enforcement

Poor work ethic Corruption,

Inefficiency, lack of accountability and

ownership

Lack of trust and

confidence in systems

Page 28: Presentation by Dr. Balraj Kistow on analysis of WEF GCR 2016-2017

Summary

• Fell 5 places to 94 with slight decrease in score

• Macroeconomic Environment

• Problematic Factors

• Innovation and Sophistication Factors

• Lowest rank Caribbean country

• How do we move forward?