Presentation at GRID/GVU Arendal 11 Jun 2007 CONNECTING GLOBAL CLIMATE SCIENCE, POLICY, TEACHING AND OUTREACH WITH AN INTERACTIVE JAVA MODEL IN CONTEXT OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN IPCC AND FCCC Ben Matthews with Jean-Pascal van Ypersele Insititut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium [email protected]www.climate.be/jcm
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Presentation at GRID/GVU Arendal 11 Jun 2007 CONNECTING GLOBAL CLIMATE SCIENCE, POLICY, TEACHING AND OUTREACH WITH AN INTERACTIVE JAVA MODEL IN CONTEXT.
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Presentation at GRID/GVU Arendal 11 Jun 2007
CONNECTING GLOBAL CLIMATE SCIENCE, POLICY,TEACHING AND OUTREACH
Ben Matthews [email protected] interactive model: www.climate.be/jcm
Recent Development of JCM 5 in UCL-ASTR(see www.climate.be/jcm)
New adaptable structure/interface using Java 5 Update of core science from IPCC TAR => AR4 in progress More complex modules developed for specific research projects
Has been applied to research applications e.g.:
Stabilisationunder Uncertainty (remaining within EU 2C limit) Probabilistic Economic Risk Analysis (Climneg project) Attribution of Contributions to Climate Change Past & future Land-Use Change emissions Aviation emissions of CO2, NOx, contrails and cirrus (ABCI project)
But still interactive / good for teaching
• explore the sensitivity to policy options, scientific uncertainties, risk / value assumptions, just by adjusting parameters with a mouse • instant cause-effect response on linked plots from emissions to impacts• easy to save model setups, plots, tables etc.
available online, open source, documented (earlier versions were translated... update in progress) used for university courses in several countries
Speed and flexibility useful for both interactivity and probabilistic / scenario analysis
Ben Matthews [email protected] interactive model: www.climate.be/jcm
We still need a range of model complexities... Simpler models are still important, GCMs ( or even ESMs) can't do everything
JCM defies the trend towards using only high-resolution GCMs, supercomputer networks
but... “a chain is only as strong as it's weakest link”e.g .scenarios, impacts, communication
+ computing power didn't yet resolve uncertainty => still need probabilistic risk analysis
whilst making more transparent the sensitivity to risk/value assumptions
Research applications made JCM more complex, (GRID might say too complex for effective communication).
Others say such models are too simple.But policymakers can't use GCMs, and want to create diverse scenarios
If scientists don't give policymakers simple, flexible relevant tools,policymakers will create their own even simpler models (e.g. Brazilian proposal...) or “back-of-the-envelope” interpolations missing all feedbacks and nonlinearities
Need to ensure quality of simpler models used for policy -relevant analysis...? (e.g. ACCC/MATCH process on attribution of contributions to climate change=> recent meeting in Cicero)
Ben Matthews [email protected] interactive model: www.climate.be/jcm
IPCC Scenarios - AR4
WG1 concept that GCMs should do everything was inefficient way to compare scenarios => too few scenarios were run – 3 SRES are not enough! (simple model still used for others) Policymakers need mitigation scenarios and to see the sensitivity to options (marginal effects)=> GCMs should parameterise simpler flexible models
New IPCC Scenario Process towards AR5 (meetings in Laxenburg, Sevilla, Noordwijkerhout)
agreed that using special reports as a data interface between models too inefficient!=> “new” parallel process concept to save time:
define simple stabilisation scenarios in the middle of cause effect chain (CO2eq concentration / forcing)(at least three to cover full plausible (>likely) range and so GCMs identify nonlinearities in climate response and impacts)
GCMs => forward to climate, impacts, adaptation
• Socioeconomic (& Biogeochemical?) models => inverse calculation to emissions and mitigation
Challenges of this approach:how to take account of cross-cutting feedbacks...?• climate change => soil respiration, plant growth, methane release... • climate change impacts => population, economic growth(when these are between separate models/processes)
Ben Matthews [email protected] interactive model: www.climate.be/jcm
JCM already demonstrated this approach: Example below from presention of Matthews & VanYpersele at WCCC 2003 Moscow, also to European strategy meeting FirenzeStabilisation under uncertainty: fixing a concentration or temperature (EU 2C) target:Defining the scenario by concentration or forcing spreads the cascade of uncertainty more evenly:
Ben Matthews [email protected] interactive model: www.climate.be/jcm
JCM can also be used to explore economic optimisation (Risk Analysis integrating over uncertainty)- Belgian project Climneg II
Make transparent the sensitivity to different ways of aggregating over... space (regions, intra-generational equity), time (discounting: intergenerational equity), risk (risk-aversion) sector (comparing different types of impacts)
Similar approach to Stern report
But need better mitgation and impact cost functions (chain is only as strong as the weakest link)=> will return to this in new AR4-version
Java Climate Model, Live demonstration of the model:Note: the slides that follow were not shown at the side-event,they are just example snapshots for the online copy.
Demonstrate webstart
1. 9 plots, show everything connected to concentration
2. stabilise temperature, change GCM => effect on emissions
Making interactive model tougher than making papers! Classic process model => papers : (One task at a time)
Modeller sets assumptions, fixes model, runs once (can be slow), selects best data, explains results in sequence
Interactive model: (Multiple applications)User changes assumptions, model adapts quickly, user selects any data, should be self-explanatory, in any order
Also slower to expand... 100s of adjustable parameters => infinite combinations, impossible to check all Add new items => interactions grow expontentially => logarithmic pace of development...
Funding for specialist research projects not overview / outreach(although “the chain is only as strong as the weakest link”)
=> tools become more convenient for experts rather than for public / stakeholders
Nevertheless... Good feedback, users appreciate JCM
• Fast & Flexible => can also iterate 1000s of combinations(e.g. to make probabilistic risk analysis more transparently)• Structure robust, modular, open-source, scope for expansion
JCM was a “proof of concept” in 2001, now more complex... but no great breakthrough in Science-Policy interaction. Should we continue?
Coming soon:
Anticipate AR4-based synthesis version (JCM6) by autumn 2007 Joint project with IVIG (Rio de Janerio) – global => regional policy.
Apply to IPCC new scenarios processes (connecting, interpolating) Java-6 => scripting languages (demonstrations, automated analyses)