Objectives Perform an uncertainty analysis about the performance and effect on the flood of the main reservoirs and polders from the Timis Bega catchment Development of flood hazard maps for the extreme event occurred in 2005 Develop new lead time curves (water level at station vs time for flood) Test novel uncertainty analysis method in relation to the particular modeling methodology and the case study Study the application of cloud computing to the menthioned modeling and uncertainty analysis
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ObjectivesPerform an uncertainty analysis about the
performance and effect on the flood of the main reservoirs and polders from the Timis Bega catchment
Development of flood hazard maps for the extreme event occurred in 2005
Develop new lead time curves (water level at station vs time for flood)
Test novel uncertainty analysis method in relation to the particular modeling methodology and the case study
Study the application of cloud computing to the menthioned modeling and uncertainty analysis
Research questions
How can the knowledge about reservoirs and polders performance help to improve flood management in the Timis Bega catchment?
What is the lead time for the Timis River? How cloud computing can be used to
improve uncertainty analysis related to complex water management systems?
Methodology
Numerical modelling Uncertainty analysis Flood hazard maps Cloud computing
Numerical modelingHEC – HMS V 3.0 (or higher)
Discharge, Water level HEC – RAS V 3.1.3 (or higher)
Discharge, Water level
Volume water that overflow SOBEK 1D2D V 2.09 (or
higher)
Velocities, Depth
Numerical modelling
Most data available Based on models of Onyari (2008) (An integrated modelling approach for flood hazard and mitigation analysis: A Case study of Timis Bega catchment, Romania)
Numerical modelling
Additional data needed Reservoirs & polders
(Elevation – storage, or storage – outflow)
Tasks to be added Reservoirs and polders (HMS) Storage areas & lateral dam break (RAS)
UncertaintyPerformance of reservoirs and polders
defined by initial water level
UncertaintyTarget data
Storage area connected by
lateral weir break
Storage area connected by
lateral weir break
Error:
Volume of water that overflows
Volume of water in storage areas
Estimated overflow 2005 = 300M m3(Onyary 2008,
Teodorescu 2005)
Uncertainty
•Bayesian approach
•Based on the equifinality concept
Monte Carlo DREAM
GLUE
Uncertainty
GLUE approach
N
obs
iobsobsi x
xxxxL
1)\(
(Zak et al. 1997)
•Bayesian approach
•Based on the equifinality concept
Flood Hazard
SOBEK results
ARCGIS 9.1 (or higer)
RASTER MAPS
Flood Hazard
Velocity
+
Depth
=
Flood hazard
SOBEK results
ARCGIS 9.1 (or higer)
RASTER MAPS
Flood hazard
Surendam et al. 2008Carr et al. 2008
Cloud computing
Cloud Computing
Create an Amzon ECC count
Create an AMI
Upload HEC - HMS and HEC - RAS
Planning Activities
ID Task Name Duration
1 Writing 342 days
2 writing the final thesis 342 days
3 Numerical Modelling 155 days
4 Introduce storage area to RAS 5 days
5 Introduce lateral dams to RAS 5 days
6 Introduce Reservoirs to HMS 5 days
7 Run HEC - HMS 150 days
8 Run HEC - RAS 150 days
9 Run Sobek 30 days
10 Uncertainty 199 days
11 Write GLUE code 15 days
12 Perform GLUE 179 days
13 Obtain 95% quantil 15 days
14 Cloud computing 131 days?
15 Get started at Amazon WS 1 day?
16 Create AMI 15 days
17 Load HEC - RAS & HEC - HMS 15 days
18 Run the models in the cloud 100 days
19 Hazard & lead time 15 days
20 Create a velocity raster map 5 days
21 Create water level raster map 5 days
22 Combine the map according the criteria 5 days
23 Get final hazard map 5 days
24 Get lead time curve from HMS 10 days
25 Results & conclusion 30 days
26 Analyze the results 15 days
27 Deduce conclusions & recommendations 15 days
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
342
Planning Activities
ID Task Name Duration
1 Writing 342 days
2 writing the final thesis 342 days
3 Numerical Modelling 155 days
4 Introduce storage area to RAS 5 days
5 Introduce lateral dams to RAS 5 days
6 Introduce Reservoirs to HMS 5 days
7 Run HEC - HMS 150 days
8 Run HEC - RAS 150 days
9 Run Sobek 30 days
10 Uncertainty 199 days
11 Write GLUE code 15 days
12 Perform GLUE 179 days
13 Obtain 95% quantil 15 days
14 Cloud computing 131 days?
15 Get started at Amazon WS 1 day?
16 Create AMI 15 days
17 Load HEC - RAS & HEC - HMS 15 days
18 Run the models in the cloud 100 days
19 Hazard & lead time 15 days
20 Create a velocity raster map 5 days
21 Create water level raster map 5 days
22 Combine the map according the criteria 5 days
23 Get final hazard map 5 days
24 Get lead time curve from HMS 10 days
25 Results & conclusion 30 days
26 Analyze the results 15 days
27 Deduce conclusions & recommendations 15 days
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
According to the advance the schedule can change & new task could be addded
•Uncertainty analysis with DREAM
•Implement a DSS
•Others
342
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