July 4 th 2016 MILA Weekly
July 4th 2016
MILA Weekly
2
Fuente: Bloomberg & Actinver
MILA - Andean Dashboard
Local Markets Index Performance (local currency) MSCI Regional Index Performance (US$)
Currencies Commodities
Index Value WoW MTD YTD
MILA
Chile IPSA 4.030 1,6% 0,8% 9,5%
Mexico MEXBOL 46.213 3,0% 0,5% 7,5%
Colombia COLCAP 9.769 -0,4% 0,1% 14,3%
Peru S&P/BVL 13.968 3,6% 0,8% 41,8%
Argentina MAR 14.601 7,5% 2,5% 16,6%
Brasil BOVESPA 52.233 4,2% 1,4% 20,5%
Index Value WoW MTD YTD
Chile MXCL Index 1.459 4,2% 1,0% 14,2%
Mexico MXMX Index 5.350 6,2% 1,5% 1,7%
Colombia MXCO Index 562 1,3% -0,5% 24,1%
Perú MXPE Index 1.206 5,5% 0,1% 48,6%
Argentina MXAR Index 2.781 3,6% 0,9% 17,0%
Brazil MXBR Index 1.499 8,3% 0,2% 44,6%
LATAM MXLA Index 2.284 7,0% 0,7% 24,8%
Currency Value WoW MTD YTD
Chile Chilean Peso 661 -2,7% -0,3% -6,6%
Mexico Mexican Peso 18,36 -3,0% 0,4% 6,7%
Colombia Colombian Peso 2933 -1,3% 0,4% -7,6%
Peru Peruvian Sol 3,29 -0,8% 0,0% -3,7%
Argentina Argentine Peso 15,05 0,8% 0,0% 16,4%
Brazil Brasilian Real 3,24 -4,2% 0,7% -18,4%
Value WoW MTD YTD
Cooper US$ c/lb 222 4,8% 1,0% 3,1%
Gold US$/oz 1341 1,9% 1,5% 26,4%
Soybean US$/bu 1138 5,5% -1,4% 28,9%
Coffee US$ c/lb 146,4 6,7% 0,5% 10,4%
Oil WTI US$/bbl 49,0 4,4% 1,4% 32,3%
Thermal Coal NwCtl US$/ton 59,2 5,7% 2,2% 27,9%
Jet Fuel 54 US$/gal 1,40 4,3% 0,3% 35,7%
3
Chile: Macroeconomic Events and Corporate News
Last Week Current Week
Corporate News and Major Events
• May retail sales fell 4.1% in Chile, after a 9.5% increase in April due to an unusually cold and rainy weather.
• Fire breaks out at Colbun´s Nehuenco 2, a 398 MW gas turbine combined-cycle power station. Nehuenco 2 is one of the three units of Nehuenco
thermoelectric complex.
• Vapores´ subsidiary, German container shipping line Hapag-Lloyd AG has agreed a merger deal with United Arab Shipping Company (UASC), creating
the fifth largest shipping group in the world.
• Forus announced a new CEO: Hugo Ovando, former CCU Chile division, will take up his new role on July 4th.
• Copec JV Sold 20% Stake in GNL Quintero to Enagas for $200m. It will generate US$53mn profit after taxes.
• E.CL (Engie Energia Chile) signed two new power supply contracts with El Abra. One contract will run between Jan. 2018 and Dec. 2028 to supply
80 MW initially and progressively falling to 40MW, and a separate contract to supply 30 MW between Jan. 2018 and Dec. 2028, according to a filing.
Date Event Period Survey Actual Prior
Jul-5 Economic Activity YoY May 1.7% -- 0.7%
Jul-5 Economic Activity MoM May 0.2% -- -1.3%
Jul-7 Trade Balance Jun 220 -- 745
Jul-7 Nominal Wage YoY May 5.2% -- 5.3%
Jul-7 Nominal Wage MoM May -- -- -0.3%
Jul-8 CPI YoY Jun 4.1% -- 4.2%
Jul-8 CPI MoM Jun 0.3% -- 0.2%
Jul-8 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Jun 0.2% -- -0.1%
Date Event Period Survey Actual Prior
Jun-30 PPI MoM May -- -0.4% 0.1%
Jun-30 Manufacturing Production YoY May 2.5% 2.1% -1.2%
Jun-30 Retail Sales YoY May 3.5% 0.6% 7.9%
Jun-30 Copper Production Total May -- 473825 432277
Jun-30 Industrial Production YoY May 1.1% -2.0% -3.4%
Jun-30 Unemployment Rate May 6.7% 6.8% 6.4%
4
Source: Bloomberg & Actinver
Performance in Local Currency
Chile Equities Monitor: IPSA, PE ratio, Advancers & Decliners
Chilean Equities – IPSA Index LTM IPSA Index - 12-mth forward looking PE Ratio
Top Advancers & Decliners IPSA WoW Top Advancers & Decliners IPSA YTD
7x
9x
11x
13x
15x
17x
19x
21x
23x
Ene-07 Ene-08 Ene-09 Ene-10 Ene-11 Ene-12 Ene-13 Ene-14 Ene-15 Ene-163.400
3.500
3.600
3.700
3.800
3.900
4.000
4.100
Jul-15 Sept-15 Nov-15 Ene-16 Mar-16 May-16
-4,0% -2,0% 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% 12,0%
ENERSIS CHILE
COLBUN
ENTEL
ANDINA-B
BCI
ANTARCHILE
SM SAAM
BANMEDICA
CAP
SECURITY
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
CMPC
VAPORES
COLBUN
ENTEL
ANTARCHILE
ECL
PARAUCO
SQM-B
CAP
CENCOSUD
5
Source: Bloomberg & Actinver
Performance in Local Currency
Chile Equities Monitor: IPSA – Performance and Stock Valuations
Price Mk Cap Price/Book Div Yield %
Jul-01 Weekly MTD YTD US$ mn 2014 2015 2016e 2014 2015 2016e LTM
AES GENER $319 0,2% -1,4% 2,9% $4.057 24,3x 14,0x 18,7x 1,8x 7,9 11,9 9,2 5,9
AGUAS-A $381 1,1% 0,4% 10,8% $3.597 18,2x 17,2x 17,7x 3,5x 19,4 20,9 20,2 5,5
ANDINA-B $2.320 -0,8% -1,6% 12,1% $3.164 21,5x 22,7x 22,6x 2,6x 8,4 10,6 11,0 3,0
ANTARCHILE $6.265 4,4% 3,6% -2,4% $4.325 10,8x 13,4x - 0,7x 8,1 5,3 - 2,9
BANMEDICA $1.220 6,1% 1,7% 21,7% $1.485 18,1x 18,0x - 3,7x 24,6 17,6 - 1,6
BCI $28.427 -0,4% -0,6% 11,3% $5.226 9,5x 9,0x 9,8x 1,5x 19,0 16,5 15,4 3,5
SANTANDER CHILE $31,9 2,1% 0,1% 6,1% $9.104 10,4x 13,3x 12,4x 2,1x 21,1 16,4 17,0 5,6
CAP $2.331 6,9% 3,3% 37,3% $527 11,9x 167,8x - 0,3x 3,0 0,1 -0,2 3,3
CENCOSUD $1.907 1,0% 1,0% 39,4% $8.199 22,9x 17,3x 18,5x 1,4x 4,5 5,8 6,8 4,0
BANCO DE CHILE $71,4 1,7% 0,6% 3,5% $10.378 11,3x 12,4x 12,7x 2,5x 23,3 20,4 19,8 4,7
CCU $7.716 4,4% -0,4% 0,6% $4.312 17,7x 23,9x 20,0x 2,7x 11,7 11,4 12,7 2,1
CMPC $1.393 0,3% 1,2% -8,3% $5.269 45,4x - 15,7x 0,7x 1,7 0,0 4,0 1,0
COLBUN $161 -1,2% 0,3% -2,6% $4.269 58,7x 20,4x 14,4x 1,2x 2,4 5,9 6,9 2,5
CONCHATORO $1.054 -0,1% 0,8% 1,1% $1.190 20,6x 15,9x 13,7x 1,7x 9,7 11,0 11,3 2,6
COPEC $5.957 2,5% 2,3% -1,0% $11.712 17,1x 20,6x 19,7x 1,2x 8,8 5,8 5,9 1,9
ECL $1.155 3,5% 2,4% 24,7% $1.840 17,3x 15,3x 7,8x 1,0x 5,0 5,4 11,4 5,2
EMBONOR-B $1.200 1,3% -0,8% 22,7% $876 20,6x 18,6x 15,1x 1,8x 7,1 8,4 10,2 4,2
ENDESA AMERICAS $307 1,7% 0,6% - $3.803 - - 11,3x 2,0x - - 18,4 3,1
ENDESA CHILE $609 1,4% -0,5% 5,3% $7.554 - - 13,1x 3,3x - - 13,1 2,4
ENERSIS AMERICAS $113,7 1,0% 0,3% 19,1% $8.445 - - 8,1x 1,6x - - 11,8 4,1
ENERSIS CHILE $76,9 -1,4% -0,9% - $5.707 - - 9,6x 1,4x - - 15,4 2,7
ENTEL $6.038 -1,0% 0,7% -2,5% $2.752 25,5x - 30,6x 1,5x 5,9 -0,1 5,2 -
FALABELLA $5.158 3,1% 2,2% 15,4% $18.994 21,3x 21,1x 22,8x 3,3x 13,5 13,9 13,9 1,6
FORUS $2.000 1,6% 0,0% 16,2% $782 17,4x 13,7x 17,3x 2,9x 23,5 18,9 15,3 2,6
GASCO $1.725 0,9% 0,0% -0,3% $438 16,4x 16,4x - 1,7x 9,9 9,7 - 6,1
GN CHILE $3.448 0,0% - - - - - - 1,0
IAM $1.059 1,7% 0,4% 12,6% $1.602 16,0x 15,8x 16,0x 1,8x 10,2 10,9 10,9 6,0
ILC $7.301 0,2% 0,6% 5,3% $1.104 10,6x 10,2x 2,6x 1,1x 14,1 14,0 42,9 5,8
ITAUCORP $5,62 0,5% 0,0% 3,9% $4.353 10,9x 9,5x 6,7x 1,7x 15,7 17,0 11,4 5,4
LATAM AIRLINES $4.488 2,4% 2,4% 20,6% $3.703 - - 43,7x 1,2x -2,5 -7,7 3,0 -
PARAUCO $1.354 3,0% 1,1% 25,2% $1.822 16,5x 15,3x 20,2x 1,7x 9,1 9,2 7,6 2,2
QUINENCO $1.293 0,6% 0,6% 5,3% $3.252 6,3x 21,5x - 0,7x 12,1 3,2 - 1,8
RIPLEY $335 1,3% 1,8% 19,2% $981 12,8x - 11,3x 0,9x 5,5 -5,9 6,9 3,5
SALFACORP $420 1,2% 1,9% 15,6% $286 9,3x 7,4x 7,8x 0,6x 6,9 6,9 7,0 3,7
SECURITY $223 10,3% 3,7% 21,3% $1.099 11,4x 9,6x - 1,3x 11,7 11,8 - 5,0
SK $870 4,1% 2,3% 6,1% $1.415 12,4x 9,4x 10,2x 1,2x 11,2 11,4 8,2 4,2
SM CHILE-B $193 1,0% 1,2% 4,2% $3.843 17,7x 21,5x - 2,0x 10,8 8,7 - 1,8
SM SAAM $50 5,6% 1,4% 16,2% $732 12,3x 8,9x 7,6x 1,0x 8,5 9,6 7,6 4,8
SONDA $1.214 2,0% 0,0% -2,4% $1.600 26,5x 25,5x 18,4x 2,2x 9,6 9,3 12,0 2,0
SQM-B $16.689 1,9% 1,9% 29,4% $7.035 21,6x 23,1x 22,4x 2,8x 13,2 9,1 12,4 4,0
VAPORES $13,30 1,6% 0,8% -2,9% $618 2,5x - 10,1x 0,3x 20,6 -0,7 - -
VSPT $6,70 0,6% 0,2% 13,4% $405 10,5x 9,7x - 1,3x 9,8 12,7 - 6,8
WATTS $1.250 4,0% 1,6% 21,8% $596 14,0x 14,2x - 2,2x 13,7 12,9 - 3,0
Performance P/E ROE %
6
Source: Bloomberg & Actinver
Chile: Chilean Peso, Cooper, Net USD/CLP forward positions & DXY
Chilean Peso (CLP/USD) – LTM Cooper (c/lb)– LMT
Net USD/CLP forward position of formal exchange market vs. local
entities US$ mnDollar Index Spot (DXY) – LTM
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
740
Jul-15 Sept-15 Nov-15 Ene-16 Mar-16 May-160
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jul-15 Sept-15 Nov-15 Ene-16 Mar-16 May-16
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
Jul-15 Sept-15 Nov-15 Ene-16 Mar-16 May-168.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
13.000
14.000
Jul-15 Sept-15 Nov-15 Ene-16 Mar-16 May-16
7
Source: Bloomberg & Actinver
Chile: Nominal & Real Rates, Inflation & Economic Activity
Nominal Rates /Central Bank Bonds & Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) Real Rates /Central Bank Bonds & Monetary
Headline & Core Inflation (ex food./Energy) IMACEC (GDP Proxy)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CPI y/y
Core Inflation SAE (ex food & energy) y/y
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
BCP pesos 5 years
BCP pesos 10 years
TPM
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
BCU 5 years
BCU 10 years
8
Source: Bloomberg & Actinver
Colombia Equities Monitor: COLCAP, PE ratio, Advancers & Decliners
Colombian Equities– COLCAP Index LTM COLCAP Index - 12-mth forward looking PE Ratio
Top Advancers & Decliners COLCAP WoW Top Advancers & Decliners COLCAP YTD
10x
12x
14x
16x
18x
20x
22x
2011 2012 2013 2014 20157.000
7.500
8.000
8.500
9.000
9.500
10.000
10.500
Jul-15 Sept-15 Nov-15 Ene-16 Mar-16 May-16
-5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%
AVIANCA HLDG
GRUPOSURA-PF
EXITO
DAVIVIENDA
CEMEX LATAM HLDG
AVAL-PF
BANCOLOMBIA-COMUN
BANCOLOMBIA-PF
AVAL-COMUN
EMP ENER BOGOTA
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
BANCO DE BOGOTA
CORFICOL
CONCONCRETO
GRUPOSURA-COMUN
GRUPOSURA-PF
DAVIVIENDA
ECOPETROL
AVIANCA HLDG
CELSIA
CANACOL
9
Source: Bloomberg & Actinver
Performance in Local Currency
Colombia Equities Monitor: COLCAP – Performance and Stock Valuations
Price Mk Cap Price/Book Div Yield %
Jul-01 Weekly MTD YTD US$ mn 2014 2015 2016e 2014 2015 2016e LTM
AVAL-COMUN $1.170 1,7% 0,9% 10,2% $8.813 15,3x 10,4x - 1,8x 12,5 15,7 - 5,0
AVAL-PF $1.180 0,8% 0,0% 11,1% $8.813 15,3x 10,4x 12,7x - 12,5 15,7 14,8 5,0
AVIANCA HLDG $2.235 -4,4% -0,2% 33,4% $793 11,8x - 9,5x 0,6x 10,1 -10,3 7,0 2,2
BANCO DE BOGOTA $58.200 0,0% -0,5% 0,1% $6.563 13,2x 8,1x - 1,4x 13,6 17,9 14,4 4,6
BANCOLOMBIA-COMUN $24.000 0,9% 0,8% 16,5% $7.955 9,3x 6,9x 9,2x 1,2x 16,9 15,3 12,8 3,6
BANCOLOMBIA-PF $25.700 1,0% 0,9% 21,1% $7.955 9,3x 6,9x 9,9x 1,3x 16,9 15,3 12,8 3,3
BVC $18,2 0,6% 1,1% 12,3% $116 11,8x 13,0x - 3,5x 30,9 21,9 - 4,9
CANACOL $9.900 -0,3% 1,0% 65,0% $551 70,6x - - - 2,5 -31,0 - -
CELSIA $3.860 0,5% 0,3% 43,7% $952 20,4x - 99,0x 0,9x 6,4 -6,1 0,6 3,1
CEMARGOS-COMUN $11.860,0 -0,6% -0,5% 23,7% $5.372 40,8x 24,3x 28,7x 2,0x 4,6 7,1 6,2 1,6
CEMARGOS-PF $10.940 -0,1% -0,5% 18,3% $5.372 40,8x 24,3x 23,3x - 4,6 7,1 6,8 2,0
CEMEX LATAM HLDG $12.580 -0,9% -0,2% 22,1% $2.411 13,7x 18,9x 14,8x 1,8x 19,6 7,3 11,5 -
CONCONCRETO $1.115 0,5% -0,9% 4,5% $419 21,3x 9,0x - 0,8x 5,8 8,7 - 2,3
CORFICOL $37.780 0,2% -1,0% 0,3% $2.860 14,4x 15,8x - - 13,0 18,9 - 1,6
DAVIVIENDA $26.840 -1,0% -0,1% 25,2% $4.136 10,9x 6,7x 8,6x 1,4x 15,5 16,7 14,6 1,6
ECOPETROL $1.405 0,4% 0,7% 26,6% $19.555 14,2x - 18,5x 1,3x 12,8 -20,4 5,8 -
EMP ENER BOGOTA $1.795 2,5% 0,6% 8,7% $5.601 16,0x 13,3x 15,3x 1,6x 11,4 11,8 11,6 4,1
EMP TELECOM BOGOTA $587 0,0% 0,0% 13,1% $715 - - - 0,9x -1,5 -3,5 - 19,4
EXITO $14.300 -1,2% 0,7% 8,3% $2.227 23,9x 9,0x 13,7x 0,9x 6,7 8,9 4,4 4,2
G. ARGOS-COMUN $18.500 -0,8% 0,0% 15,1% $4.992 26,2x 37,7x 31,3x 1,0x 4,4 2,4 3,2 1,5
G. ARGOS-PF $17.640,0 -0,6% -1,0% 16,4% $4.992 26,2x 37,7x - 0,9x 4,4 2,4 - 1,5
GRUPOSURA-COMUN $37.940 -0,4% -0,9% 6,9% $7.347 13,6x 15,9x 13,3x 1,0x 7,8 5,6 6,0 1,2
GRUPOSURA-PF $37.140 -2,0% -1,2% 7,4% $7.347 13,6x 15,9x - - 7,8 5,6 - 1,2
ISA $8.920 0,2% -0,2% 20,9% $3.276 13,5x 10,1x 14,5x 1,3x 8,1 10,4 8,4 2,3
NUTRESA $25.100 0,8% 0,0% 12,1% $3.857 29,2x 20,8x 26,3x 1,4x 5,5 6,2 5,8 1,9
Performance P/E ROE %
10
Source: Bloomberg & Actinver
Peru Equities Monitor: S&P BVL, PE ratio, Advancers & Decliners
Peruvian Equites– S&P/BVL LTM S&P/BVL Index - 12-mth forward looking PE Ratio
Top Advancers & Decliners S&P BV LIMA WoW Top Advancers & Decliners S&P BV LIMA YTD
0x
5x
10x
15x
20x
25x
30x
35x
2013 2014 2015 2016
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
13.000
14.000
15.000
Jul-15 Sept-15 Nov-15 Ene-16 Mar-16 May-16
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
POMALCA
UNACEM
MINSUR
CONTINENTAL
#N/A
RELAPASA
TREVALI MINING
CASA GRANDE
BUENAVENTURA
VOLCAN
-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
AUSTRAL
INV. CENTENARIO
EDEGEL
SOUTHERN COPPER
MINERA IRL
ACEROS AREQUIPA-INV
GRAÑA Y MONTERO
ATACOCHA
BUENAVENTURA
VOLCAN
11
Source: Bloomberg & Actinver
Performance in Local Currency
Peru Equities Monitor: S&P BVL – Performance and Stock Valuations
Price Mk Cap Price/Book Div Yield %
Jul-01 Weekly MTD YTD US$ mn 2014 2015 2016e 2014 2015 2016e LTM
ACEROS AREQUIPA-COM $0,70 0,0% 0,0% 48,9% $236 8,3x 3,1x - 0,4x 4,2 5,2 - 3,6
ACEROS AREQUIPA-INV $0,62 5,1% 3,3% 136,6% $236 8,3x 3,1x - 0,4x 4,2 5,2 - 4,2
ALICORP $6,45 3,2% 0,0% 12,1% $1.597 29,3x 30,1x 18,6x 2,5x 9,9 7,5 11,9 0,8
ATACOCHA $0,30 5,0% 5,0% 192,1% $83 - - - 1,5x -2,8 -38,6 -32,3 -
AUSTRAL $1,25 3,3% 0,0% -23,3% $99 - - - 0,6x -9,2 -0,7 - -
BACKUS $13,93 0,1% 0,1% 12,7% $5.630 1,7x 1,4x - 1,0x 53,2 66,1 - 6,4
BUENAVENTURA $12,40 9,5% 4,2% 198,8% $2.894 - - 28,6x - -2,2 -10,0 2,4 -
CASA GRANDE $6,12 8,3% 5,5% 85,8% $149 11,1x 2,9x - 0,4x 4,6 7,5 - 6,9
CERRO VERDE $18,55 3,0% 0,2% 27,9% $1.918 22,2x 152,5x 17,4x 1,4x 8,5 0,7 9,3 -
CONTINENTAL $3,50 -0,6% 4,2% 53,3% $4.649 10,7x 7,2x - 2,6x 25,3 23,5 - 4,0
CREDICORP $154,0 4,8% -0,1% 59,9% $12.048 15,1x 8,0x 12,1x - 17,9 20,6 19,6 1,5
EDEGEL $2,65 1,9% 2,7% -1,4% $2.062 15,1x 14,5x - 2,4x 21,6 18,7 - 2,9
EDELNOR $5,64 1,6% 1,3% 17,5% $1.059 12,1x 9,5x - 2,4x 23,1 22,2 - 3,5
EL BROCAL $5,60 0,0% 0,0% 21,8% $232 11,3x - - 0,6x 6,4 -20,3 -6,7 -
ENGIE ENERGIA PERU $8,40 0,6% 0,0% 5,3% $1.519 14,8x 7,9x 10,7x 1,7x 18,7 20,8 21,4 3,6
FERREYCORP $1,56 0,6% 0,0% 21,6% $506 17,2x 7,9x 6,4x 0,9x 6,0 10,2 12,0 5,7
GRAÑA Y MONTERO $4,76 4,6% 2,6% 144,2% $904 15,2x 13,6x 13,6x 1,2x 11,7 3,6 7,2 1,0
IFS $30,00 4,5% 0,0% - $1.050 10,2x 6,6x 10,8x 2,4x 23,8 30,4 23,4 4,3
INRETAIL $17,00 4,4% 2,4% 21,4% $516 48,3x 31,8x 21,7x 1,8x 3,9 4,9 7,9 -
INV. CENTENARIO $5,10 0,0% 0,0% -5,4% $324 6,9x 3,7x - 0,7x 14,7 20,4 - 7,8
LUZ DEL SUR $10,60 0,7% 0,9% - $1.544 12,3x 9,6x - 2,6x 24,5 24,3 - 5,3
MILPO $2,19 4,8% 2,3% 40,2% $867 7,1x 10,9x 13,9x 1,4x 17,1 7,2 9,5 2,0
MINERA IRL $0,05 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% - - - 1,4x - -45,0 -15,1 - -
MINSUR $1,18 -1,7% 0,0% 136,0% $1.044 20,3x - 9,2x 0,9x 5,1 -40,1 4,0 -
PACASMAYO $5,80 1,2% -1,2% 16,0% $990 14,5x 12,0x 14,8x 1,6x 10,2 11,9 10,7 4,8
PANORO MINERALS $0,14 3,7% 3,7% 77,2% $9 - - - - -4,7 -7,5 -3,6 -
POMALCA $0,22 -3,9% -3,5% 13,3% $22 - 53,1x - 0,1x -0,9 0,2 - -
RELAPASA $0,25 6,1% 3,8% 113,0% $247 - 2,1x 6,8x 0,5x -17,9 4,1 7,7 -
SOUTHERN COPPER $26,4 2,9% -1,5% -0,1% $20.975 15,3x 27,5x 27,7x 3,8x 23,0 14,0 14,0 0,8
TREVALI MINING $0,44 6,6% 1,6% 23,1% $54 - - 13,1x - -2,0 -4,3 4,0 -
UNACEM $2,50 -2,0% -1,2% 49,2% $1.303 15,0x 38,6x 10,0x 1,0x 8,6 1,9 12,8 2,1
VOLCAN $0,63 12,5% 5,0% 231,6% $896 17,3x - 14,8x 0,7x 3,8 -5,4 4,3 -
Performance P/E ROE %
12
Source: Bloomberg & Actinver
Argentina Equities Monitor: MAR, PE ratio, Advancers & Decliners
Argentine Equities– MAR Index LTM MAR Index - 12-mth forward looking PE Ratio
Top Advancers & Decliners MAR WoW Top Advancers & Decliners MAR YTD
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
13.000
14.000
15.000
16.000
Jul-15 Sept-15 Nov-15 Ene-16 Mar-16 May-16
0x
2x
4x
6x
8x
10x
12x
14x
16x
18x
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
TELECOM ARG.
YPF
ALUAR
GF GALICIA
BANCO FRANCES
COME
TRANSENER
CONSULTATIO
EDENOR
SAN MIGUEL
-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
ALUAR
COME
TRANSENER
SIDERAR
MOLINOS
YPF
BANCO MACRO
PAMPA ENERGIA
SAN MIGUEL
MIRGOR
13
Source: Bloomberg & Actinver
Performance in Local Currency
Argentina Equities Monitor: MAR – Performance and Stock Valuations
Price Mk Cap Price/Book Div Yield %
Jul-01 Weekly MTD YTD US$ mn 2014 2015 2016e 2014 2015 2016e LTM
ALUAR $9,88 5,4% 2,9% -15,9% $1.843 13,4x 17,6x - 3,6x 14,6 19,0 - 0,5
BANCO MACRO $111 8,6% -1,0% 39,3% $4.278 8,0x 6,6x 11,4x 3,6x 31,8 44,3 32,9 0,4
BANCO FRANCES $105 6,8% 0,3% 15,9% $3.770 8,5x 9,2x 12,4x 3,8x 32,4 38,8 31,2 0,7
COME $3,03 9,0% 3,4% -15,4% $273 0,9x 1,0x - 0,3x 25,3 36,1 - -
CONSULTATIO $37 11,2% 0,5% 10,1% $1.004 9,0x 5,1x - 2,6x 41,3 52,7 - 1,0
EDENOR $13 15,0% 2,3% 8,0% $738 - 8,7x 12,5x 8,6x -211,8 84,5 22,6 -
GF GALICIA $46,5 5,6% 0,8% 26,7% $4.074 6,9x 7,9x 11,2x 3,8x 34,1 42,1 33,5 0,2
MIRGOR $1.440 8,3% 6,0% 166,3% $575 6,7x 4,4x - 6,3x 18,3 57,0 - 0,1
MOLINOS $86,5 8,8% 3,6% 4,2% $1.496 12,8x 13,5x - 6,9x 39,6 55,4 - -
PAMPA ENERGIA $16,9 8,3% 3,4% 45,7% $1.808 7,5x 4,8x 18,2x 3,8x 26,6 45,5 12,8 -
SAN MIGUEL $82,0 17,2% 1,9% 69,3% $325 5,1x 6,4x - 5,2x 29,6 33,4 - 0,1
SIDERAR $7,77 7,9% 4,0% -3,6% $2.212 5,0x 15,1x - 1,4x 28,4 10,8 - 5,4
TELECOM ARG. $56,0 1,1% -0,3% 23,5% $3.752 11,4x 9,2x 12,6x 3,0x 26,8 27,8 22,9 1,3
TRANSENER $7,30 10,6% 3,8% -11,7% $200 9,8x 50,1x 20,9x 5,8x 24,5 10,9 16,0 -
YPF $296 2,9% 2,5% 34,7% $8.038 13,2x 13,4x 10,9x 0,8x 13,0 5,3 8,9 0,4
Performance P/E ROE %
14
Source: Bloomberg & Actinver
Currencies
Mexican Peso (MXN/USD) – LTM Colombian Peso (COP/USD) – LTM
Peruvian Sol (PEN/USD) – LTM Argentine Peso (ARP/USD) – LTM
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Jul-15 Sept-15 Nov-15 Ene-16 Mar-16 May-162.000
2.200
2.400
2.600
2.800
3.000
3.200
3.400
3.600
Jul-15 Sept-15 Nov-15 Ene-16 Mar-16 May-16
2,9
3,0
3,1
3,2
3,3
3,4
3,5
3,6
Jul-15 Sept-15 Nov-15 Ene-16 Mar-16 May-168
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Jul-15 Sept-15 Nov-15 Ene-16 Mar-16 May-16
15
Source: Bloomberg & Actinver
CDS Spreads
CDS Chile (5 years) – LTM CDS Colombia (5 years) – LTM
CDS Peru (5 years) – LTM CDS Mexico (5 years) – LTM
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jul-15 Sept-15 Nov-15 Ene-16 Mar-16 May-16
0
100
200
300
400
Jul-15 Sept-15 Nov-15 Ene-16 Mar-16 May-16
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jul-15 Sept-15 Nov-15 Ene-16 Mar-16 May-16
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jul-15 Sept-15 Nov-15 Ene-16 Mar-16 May-16