Prescillano C. Seno Jr. Municipal Coordinator-Hernani and Balangkayan Plan International Review on Contingency Planning/Worst Case Scenario Building.

Prescillano C. Seno Jr.Municipal Coordinator-Hernani and BalangkayanPlan International

Review on Contingency

Planning/Worst Case Scenario

Building

Scanning the Environment

Generating Scenarios(Anatomy of emergency)

Predicting NeedsEmploy indicators

Taking stockOf Resources

Arranging Response System & Actions

Setting policies and sectoral objectives

Identify Gaps

Endorsement/ Updating /Testing & Activation

THE PROCESS

Contingency CycleContingency Cycle

ASSESSMENT

FORMULATION

ENDORSEMENT/

TESTING/UPDATING

ACTIVATION

Scanning the Environment

GEOGRAPHIC: location, contour, features,etc

DEMOGRAPHIC: population, concentration, mobility, density, growth

ECONOMIC: production, industry, trade, transportation,

ownership, etc

SOC-CULTURE: ethnic composition, culture and habits,

main issues, traditional links

SECURITY & DEFENSE: crimes, major threats, public safety, major installations, border issues, etc

Scanning the Environment

PAST EVENTS

- what

- when

- where

PAST EVENTS

- what

- when

- where

POTENTIAL HAZARDS/RISK

- probability

- impact

POTENTIAL HAZARDS/RISK

- probability

- impact

Scanning the Environment

B. HAZARD/DISASTER PROFILE BUILDING

B. HAZARD/DISASTER PROFILE BUILDING

Defining the Event to Plan for

CriteriaCriteria

*Probability to occur (P)

* Will create the most Impact (I)

Scanning the Environment

RANK

HAZARD P I REMARKS AVERAGE

Hazard ID and Risk Assessment Group

CP Form 1

Legend: P – Probability I – Impact

RISK RATING SCALE

1 – Most unlikely 1 – Negligible 2 – Low Probability 2 – Low Impact 3 – Perhaps 3 – Minimal Impact 4 – High Probability 4 – High Impact5 – Almost Certain 5 – Devastating

Scanning the Environment

Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

By this time you should have arrived at one particular emergency that is agreed to be the one that the local

must plan for

By this time you should have arrived at one particular emergency that is agreed to be the one that the local

must plan for

Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

Part-1• Draw a location map• Put important

landmarks• State & describe the

emergency event • Draw the event in

the map• ..

Part-1• Draw a location map• Put important

landmarks• State & describe the

emergency event • Draw the event in

the map• ..

Part-2• Determine the root

cause/s• Identify the trigger• List down the

observable early warning signals

• …

Part-2• Determine the root

cause/s• Identify the trigger• List down the

observable early warning signals

• …

Drawing the Anatomy Drawing the Anatomy of the Event to plan forof the Event to plan for

Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

Root CausesEarly Warning

Triggering Factors

DRR Measures(P / M / R)

Event to Plan for _______________________ Group ____

CP Form 2

Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

What scenarios do we plan for?Different shapes of possible emergency • Scenarios to which your Scenarios to which your

School is School is likelylikely to respond.to respond.

• 3 of the 3 of the most plausiblemost plausible scenarios (Bad, Worse & scenarios (Bad, Worse & Worst) Worst)

• Plan for the “worst case” Plan for the “worst case” scenarioscenario

• The plausibility or The plausibility or probability of each scenario probability of each scenario should be communicated to should be communicated to other officesother offices to assess the urgency and to assess the urgency and preparedness actions.preparedness actions.

Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

Stating ScenariosStating ScenariosBad, Worse, Bad, Worse,

WorstWorst

AssumptionsAssumptions form the form the foundation of each scenario foundation of each scenario and should be made explicit and should be made explicit so others can understand the so others can understand the reasoning. reasoning.

Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

Scenario Worst Case

Description of the event Volcanic eruption reaching Alert Level 5

Impact on social sector

1. Families directly affected

2. Deaths

3. Injuries

4. Missing

5. Houses damaged

20,943 households 3,000 persons 20,000 persons 3,000 persons 31,000 houses damaged due to pyroclastic flow 3,500 houses damaged due to lahar flow P5.2 Billion worth of damaged houses

Impact on Agriculture

1. Sugarcane

2. Livestock

3. Fisheries

4. Others

P2.5 Billion worth of damage in agriculture

ASSUMPTIONS: KANLAON VOLCANO

S C E N A R I O

SITUATIONS Bad Case Worse Case Worst Case

Description of Event/occurence

Death/Injury

Affected Population

Effects on Housing,

Properties and Livelihood

Effects on Infra and Facilities

Response Capabilities

Event to Plan for _______________________ Group ____

CP Form 3

Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

No. of Population likely to be affected: _____________________

CP Form 4

Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

So you have an event in mind,

but...

So you have an event in mind,

but...

Setting Policies and Objectives

General General PoliciesPoliciesGeneral General PoliciesPolicies

- Defines vision and direction - Defines vision and direction of operationof operation

- Defines areas of - Defines areas of responsibilitiesresponsibilities

- Reference for operation- Reference for operation

- General in nature, less - General in nature, less controversycontroversy

- Should be acceptable to all - Should be acceptable to all partiesparties

Setting Policies and Objectives

Important Policies to Important Policies to ConsiderConsider

• Global normsGlobal norms

- Declaration of World Leaders during the World - Declaration of World Leaders during the World

Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction held Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction held on January 18 – 22, 2005, Kobe, Japan on January 18 – 22, 2005, Kobe, Japan - Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) Priorities - Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) Priorities for Action 2005 – 2010for Action 2005 – 2010

- UN Milennium Development Goals (UNMDGs)- UN Milennium Development Goals (UNMDGs)

Setting Policies and Objectives

- SPHERE Project on Humanitarian Charter and Minimum - SPHERE Project on Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Disaster ResponseStandards in Disaster Response

- United Nations Convention on Refugee Status- United Nations Convention on Refugee Status - UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement (UNGPID)- UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement (UNGPID) - IFRC’s International Disaster Response Laws, Rules and - IFRC’s International Disaster Response Laws, Rules and

Principles (IDRL)Principles (IDRL) - ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency - ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency

Response (AADMER)Response (AADMER)

- UN Cluster Approach for Humanitarian Response- UN Cluster Approach for Humanitarian Response

Setting Policies and Objectives

Important Policies to Important Policies to ConsiderConsider

• Global normsGlobal norms

Setting Policies and Objectives

Important Policies to Important Policies to ConsiderConsider

• LOCAL NORMS

• LOCAL NORMS

- RA 10121

- Local Government Code of 1991

- Other local legislations/issuances

Identifying Gaps

PROJECTED NEEDS VS.

EXISTING RESOURCES

GAP ID MATRIX

T A

S K

S / N

E E

D

S

AGENCIES LIKELY TO BE INVOLVED

Result of Task Analysis: Result of Task Analysis:

A gap analysis A gap analysis matrix containing matrix containing what will be what will be accomplished by accomplished by who who by whenby when

Identifying Gaps

Identifying Gaps

Main PointsMain Points Many problems facing emergency managers point to the need for more openness towards coordination, starting from indicators as common DENOMINATION

It is important to shift the focus from “We, the responders” to “They, the people who need help”

Standard indicators are valuable tools in all of these regards, but they must be balanced with common sense

Identifying Gaps

SECTORS / CLUSTERS

- SAR

- WASH

- Evacuation Center Management

- Food

- Communications / Security

- Engineering

– Food & nutritionFood & nutrition– Health/MedicalHealth/Medical– Water & sanitationWater & sanitation– Temporary shelterTemporary shelter– Evacuation Center ManagementEvacuation Center Management– Transportation Transportation – Communications and WarningCommunications and Warning– DANADANA– SARSAR– EngineeringEngineering– Command, Control & CoordinationCommand, Control & Coordination– On-Scene Incident ManagementOn-Scene Incident Management

The Sectors / ClustersThe Sectors / ClustersThe Sectors / ClustersThe Sectors / ClustersIdentifying Gaps

Some Emergency Indicators

Balance analysis of indicators with common sense!Balance analysis of indicators with common sense!

Indicator Quantity or RateFood 2,100 kilo cal.(500 gr. /person /day)

Water 7.5 liters/person/daySite Space <30 sq. meters per personShelter <3.5 sq. meters per personLatrine 1 unit/20 pax1/5 px familyFamily Kits 1 unit/5 persons familyBlanket 1 piece/person

Identifying Gaps

• Define sectoral objectives Define sectoral objectives • Present the sector / cluster organization Present the sector / cluster organization

(sector/cluster leads and members).(sector/cluster leads and members).• Describe the sector/cluster tasks Describe the sector/cluster tasks • Describe the general situation in the sectorDescribe the general situation in the sector

when the event to plan for occurswhen the event to plan for occurs• Define the needs by comparing the existing Define the needs by comparing the existing

resources vs. projected requirementsresources vs. projected requirements• Determine the sectoral indicators when appropriateDetermine the sectoral indicators when appropriate• Draw a flowchart of the sector’s activities and how Draw a flowchart of the sector’s activities and how

the tasks are distributed to sector membersthe tasks are distributed to sector members• Define the sector / cluster DRR measures (ST –MT –Define the sector / cluster DRR measures (ST –MT –

LT)LT)

• Define sectoral objectives Define sectoral objectives • Present the sector / cluster organization Present the sector / cluster organization

(sector/cluster leads and members).(sector/cluster leads and members).• Describe the sector/cluster tasks Describe the sector/cluster tasks • Describe the general situation in the sectorDescribe the general situation in the sector

when the event to plan for occurswhen the event to plan for occurs• Define the needs by comparing the existing Define the needs by comparing the existing

resources vs. projected requirementsresources vs. projected requirements• Determine the sectoral indicators when appropriateDetermine the sectoral indicators when appropriate• Draw a flowchart of the sector’s activities and how Draw a flowchart of the sector’s activities and how

the tasks are distributed to sector membersthe tasks are distributed to sector members• Define the sector / cluster DRR measures (ST –MT –Define the sector / cluster DRR measures (ST –MT –

LT)LT)

Sectoral / Cluster PlanningSectoral / Cluster Planning

Identifying Gaps

X = minor (X) = major/lead

Cluster/Sector Plans and Arrangements

CP Form 5 – Task Analysis

Identifying Gaps

Cluster/Sectoral Planning and Arrangements

CP Form 6 – Needs and Activities Inventory

Objective: To upgrade immediate/adequate relief/food assistance to affected families

Cluster/Sector _______________

Identifying Gaps

Cluster/Sector Planning and Arrangements

CP Form 7 – Resource Inventory

Cluster /Sector_______________

Identifying Gaps

Cluster /Sector Planning and Arrangements

CP Form 8 – Needs Projection and Resource Gap Identification

Cluster/Sector _______________

Identifying Gaps

Concept of Operation (Flow Chart)

Sector: ______________

Arranging Response Systems and Actions

CoordinationCoordination

CONSOLIDATION OF THE DRAFT CONTINGENCY PLAN

Integrate the otherwise fragmented sectoral plans into a coherent contingency plan (drafting stage)

A three-man committee may be constituted to consolidate the draft contingency plan based on the standard Contingency Plan format Follow-up of the draft plan – regular and monitoring meetings, updating of facts and assumptions

Endorsement and Activation

Endorsement - Activation

When the plan has been finalized, have the group actually submit the PLAN to relevant authorities . . . Local Chief Executive/Chairman-LDCC . . . Local Sanggunian

Provide sufficient justification to the local chief executive and local Sanggunian that in case such emergency takes place, the amount of resources specified in the plan will be required.

Endorsement - Activation

Who will put together the sectoral plans into a Contingency Plan?

Which agency will follow through this plan (calling regular and monitoring meeting, updating the facts and assumptions, etc.)

Who will monitor and report the early warning signals

How the plan will be tested (table-top, hypothetical drill, full-fledged simulation?)

When and how will the plan be activated?, reviewed, and updated (or staged down)

Steps Forward

Contingency Plan Format