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Craig D. Jerald, Break the Curve Craig D. Jerald, Break the Curve Consulting Consulting NSBA 2009 Federal Relations Conference NSBA 2009 Federal Relations Conference Washington, DC Washington, DC February 1, 2009 February 1, 2009 Preparing Preparing Students Students for the for the 21 21 st st Century Century
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Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

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Page 1: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

Craig D. Jerald, Break the Curve Craig D. Jerald, Break the Curve ConsultingConsulting

NSBA 2009 Federal Relations ConferenceNSBA 2009 Federal Relations Conference

Washington, DC Washington, DC February 1, 2009 February 1, 2009

Preparing Preparing StudentsStudents

for thefor the

21 21 stst CenturyCentury

Page 2: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

2© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

I. How is the world changing?I. How is the world changing?

Page 3: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

3© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Forces changing skill demandsForces changing skill demands

Automation

Globalization

Workplace change

Demographic change

Personal risk and responsibility

Page 4: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

4© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

AutomationAutomation

Page 5: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

5© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

What kinds of work can What kinds of work can computers do?computers do?

Follow routine directions: Any job where information can be digitized and key tasks can be broken down into a set of predictable rules.

► EG, Airline reservations, tickets, boarding passes. Now you can complete the whole process without ever talking to a human being!

Recognize simple patterns.► EG, On the telephone, recognizing simple sentences in

response to prompts, then providing the appropriate information or connecting to the appropriate human.

Page 6: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

6© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Changing mix of jobs in the Changing mix of jobs in the economyeconomy

12%14%

38%

18%

8%

22%25%

33%

12%14%

0%

40%

Blue collarworkers

Admin supportworkers

Sales relatedoccupations

Technicians,professionals,

managers,administrators

Serviceworkers

1969 1999

Source: Levy, F. & Murnane, R. J. (2004). The new division of labor: How computers are creating the next job market. Princeton, NJ: Russell Sage Foundation. (p. 42, Figure 3.2)

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ults

Page 7: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

7© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Job tasks are changing across the Job tasks are changing across the economyeconomy

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1969 1980 1990 1998

Per

cen

tile

Ch

ang

e in

196

9 D

istr

ibu

tio

n

Complex Communication

Expert Thinking

Routine Manual

Routine Thinking

Source: Levy, F. & Murnane, R. J. (2004). The new division of labor: How computers are creating the next job market. Princeton, NJ: Russell Sage Foundation. (p. 50, Figure 3.5)

Page 8: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

8© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

What kinds of work What kinds of work can’tcan’t computers do (yet)?computers do (yet)?

Non-routine manual labor:► EG, driving a truck, security guard, etc.

Non-routine thinking work:► “Expert Thinking”—The ability to solve unexpected

problems for which there are no predictable and programmable rule-based solutions.

► “Complex Communications”—Interacting with other people to acquire information, explain it, or persuade with it.

► Doing both well also requires creativity, which computers also are not very good at.

Page 9: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

9© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Automation has big Automation has big consequences for educationconsequences for education

Computers can follow directions better, faster, and cheaper than human beings, and the number of tasks computers can do grows every year.

Any curriculum that emphasizes following directions to find a single correct answer is, by definition, preparing students for jobs that probably will not exist by the time those students graduate.

“To educate our children to compete with either a computer [is to educate them for] a competition they cannot win.”

—Frank Levy and Richard Murnane (2007)

Page 10: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

10© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

GlobalizationGlobalization

Page 11: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

11© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Work can increasingly be done Work can increasingly be done anywhere … and there are more anywhere … and there are more workers who can do it!workers who can do it!

Technological advances (internet, interactive software, digital technologies) allow work to be carved up and shipped around globe.

Historic political and economic changes around the globe freed up more than 1 billion people—in places like Russia, Eastern Europe, China, India, etc.—who could potentially compete for that work.

“The result is a world in which it is just as easy to create work teams composed of people on four continents as it is to create work teams composed of people from four divisions of the same firm located in the same city.”

—the New Commission on the Skills of the American workforce (2007)

Page 12: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

12© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Implications for your studentsImplications for your students

“Suddenly more people from more different places could collaborate with more other people on more different kinds of work and share more different kinds of knowledge than ever before.”

—Thomas Friedman (2005)

“Highly skilled people with roughly the same qualifications are competing directly with each other, no matter where they are located on the globe.”

—the New Commission on the Skills of the American workforce (2007)

Sources: 1) National Center on Education and the Economy. (2007). Tough choices or tough times: The report of the New Commission on the Skills of the American workforce. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass. (p. 19)2) Friedman, T. L. (2005). The world is flat: A brief history of the twenty-first century. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. (p. 81)

Page 13: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

13© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

National implications, too:National implications, too:Human capital has a big impact Human capital has a big impact on economic growthon economic growth

If the U.S. improved students’ performance on international tests to the level of top performing nations, its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would be:

► An additional 5 percent higher 32 years from now (enough to entirely pay for K-12 education), and

► An additional 36 percent higher 75 years from now!

Source: Hanushek, E. A. & Woessmann, L. (2008, September). The role of cognitive skills in economic development. Journal of Economic Literature, 46(3), 607–68. (p. 650)

Page 14: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

14© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Impact of higher math & science scores Impact of higher math & science scores on economic growth, on economic growth, projections through 2064projections through 2064

If it took 10 years to meet goal

If it took 20 years to meet goal

If it took 30 yearsTo reach goal

Total U.S. K-12 spending

0

10

20

30

40

1989

1994

1999

2004

2014

2019

2024

2029

2034

2039

2044

2049

2054

2059

2064

Percent addition to GDP from raising U.S. math and science scores to near top in the world

NOTE: “K-12 education expenditures are assumed to be constant at the level attained in 2005. These data show that economic benefits from a 1989 reform that raised the U.S. to the highest levels of test performance would cover the cost of K-12 education by 2015.”Source: Hanushek, E. A., et al. (2008, Spring). Education and economic growth. Education Next, 8(2), 62-70. (p. 69)

Page 15: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

15© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Workplace changeWorkplace change

Page 16: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

16© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Major shifts in the workplaceMajor shifts in the workplace

Companies focusing more on providing information than “things.”

Companies are “flatter,” with less hierarchy and less direct supervision.

Employees have more autonomy and responsibility. Work is much more collaborative. Jobs are less routine, predictable, and stable.

Page 17: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

17© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Growth of the information-service Growth of the information-service economyeconomy

19%

35%

11%

36%

11%

56%

7%

27%

0%

60%

Material products Material services Informationproducts

Informationservices

1967 1997

Source: Apte, U. M., Karmarkar, U. S., & Nath, H. K. (2008, Spring). Information services in the U.S. economy: Value, jobs, and management implications. California Management Review, 50(3), 12-30.(p. 18, Table I)

Sh

are

of

US

GD

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f U

S G

DP

Page 18: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

18© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

More collaboration in the More collaboration in the workplaceworkplace

In top 1,000 companies:

Use of self-managing work teams rose from 28% in 1988 to 65% in 2005.

Work teams are increasingly global.

Page 19: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

19© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Work has become more challenging Work has become more challenging … and more satisfying… and more satisfying

27%

66%

28%32%

45%

20%

69%

45%

62%

55%

0%

75%

My job lets me usemy skills and

abilities

It is basically myresponsibility todecide how myjob gets done

My job requiresthat I learn new

things

My job requiresthat I be creative

The work I do ismeaningful to me

1977 2002

Source: O’Toole, J. & Lawler, E.E. III. (2006). The new American workplace. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. (p. 55)

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Page 20: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

20© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Demographic changeDemographic change

Page 21: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

21© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

A more diverse population: A more diverse population: “Minorities” will be U.S. majority in “Minorities” will be U.S. majority in about 30 Yearsabout 30 Years

42%45% 47% 49% 51%

54%

34%

40%38%35%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Per

cen

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f p

op

ula

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n N

OT

no

n-H

isp

anic

wh

ite

Source: Census Bureau. (2008, August 14). An older and more diverse nation by mid-century. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Labor. (Table 3: Projections of the Population by Race and Hispanic Origin for the United States 2008 to 2050)

Page 22: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

22© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

More diverse populationMore diverse population

Entire U.S. population = 2042

Working-age population =2039

School-age population = 2023

Year in which “minorities” will become the majority of …

Source: Census Bureau. (2008, August 14). An older and more diverse nation by mid-century. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Labor.

Page 23: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

23© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

More diverse populationMore diverse population

Schools will need to be able to educate a more diverse student population

Schools will need to prepare students to interact in a more diverse society and collaborate in a more diverse work environment

► More diverse U.S. society, which will be reflected in the workplace, but also …

► International collaboration, global work teams

Implications:

Page 24: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

24© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Aging populationAging population

By the time the last Baby Boomer reaches 65 in 2030, nearly one out of five U.S. residents will be 65 or older.

Between 2008 and 2050 …► The 65 and older population will DOUBLE► The 85 and older population will TRIPLESource: Census Bureau. (2008, August 14). An older and more diverse nation by mid-century. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Labor.

“Fewer of us will have to support many more of us than has ever been the case before.”

Source: National Center on Education and the Economy. (2007). Tough choices or tough times: The report of the New Commission on the Skills of the American workforce. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass. (p. 7).

Page 25: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

25© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Personal risk and responsibilityPersonal risk and responsibility

Page 26: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

26© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Shift in corporate benefit policiesShift in corporate benefit policies

Job security: employment more contingent on performance than loyalty

Financial planning: more 401(k)s, fewer defined-benefit plans

Health care: consumers increasingly called on to choose own coverage & care

Individuals now shoulder more responsibility for personal well-being:

Page 27: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

27© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Employment is less secure: Those who Employment is less secure: Those who cannot perform will not keep their jobscannot perform will not keep their jobs

67%

77%

5%

60%

29%

16%

0%

80%

Rewards tiedto seniority

Loyalty tocompany isrewarded

Continuedemployment

based ondeveloping

skills &knowledge

Rewards tiedto individualperformance

Rewards tiedto groupand/or

companyperformance

Continuedemployment

based onperformance

Source: O’Toole, J. & Lawler, E.E. III. (2006). The new American workplace. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. (p. 67)

In the late 1980s, 56% of corporate managers said loyal employees deserve continued employment.

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Page 28: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

28© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Retirement coverage is shifting toward Retirement coverage is shifting toward individually controlled investmentsindividually controlled investments

Pension plans with investments controlled by employers are being replaced by IRAs and 401(k)s that require individuals to make at least some investment decisions.

Retirement was once something that workers did not have to think a lot about. Today, they do have to think about it, and how well they think about can have huge consequences for their future well-being.

Page 29: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

29© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Consumers are asked to make own Consumers are asked to make own decisions about health care and costsdecisions about health care and costs

Health coverage choices are more complicated and varied

Information about the quality of health care providers and treatment effectiveness is more transparent and accessible

“Consumers therefore require more knowledge and greater skill to take full advantage of new sources of information and to make appropriate choices.”

Hibbard, Peters, Dixon & TuslerConsumer competencies and the use of comparative

quality information, 2007

Page 30: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

30© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

II. What kind of knowledge and II. What kind of knowledge and skills will young people need?skills will young people need?

Page 31: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

31© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

More important in the 21More important in the 21stst Century Century

Postsecondary education and training Academic knowledge and skills Practical literacies: The ability to use knowledge

of math, English, science, civics etc. to meet real-world challenges.

Broader competencies: Critical thinking and problem solving, communications and collaboration, creativity, self-sufficiency etc.

Page 32: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

32© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Occupations requiring more Occupations requiring more education are predicted to grow education are predicted to grow fasterfaster

7.7

14.8

10.5

0

16

High school or less Some college or postsectraining

Bachelor's or higher

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, 20

06-

16

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2008, February). Occupational projections and training data: 2008-9 edition. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Labor. (p. 4, Table I-3)

Projected growth in jobs requiring …

Page 33: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

33© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Nearly two-thirds of new jobs will Nearly two-thirds of new jobs will require postsecondary education or require postsecondary education or trainingtraining

36%

33%

31%

High school or less Some college or postsec training Bachelor's or higher

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2008, February). Occupational projections and training data: 2008-9 edition. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Labor. (p. 4, Table I-3)

New jobs, 2006-2016:

Page 34: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

34© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Earnings boost for college degree Earnings boost for college degree has grown immenselyhas grown immensely

53%

13%-

6%

14%

40%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

H.S. dropout H.S. graduate Some college Bachelor's Graduate orprofessional

degree

Per

cen

t ch

ang

e in

co

nst

an

t do

llars

Source: Mortenson, T. (2007, November). Average family income by educational attainment of householder 1967 to 2006. Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 185. (p. 15)

Change in average family income from 1973 to 2006:

Page 35: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

35© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Income inequality has increased Income inequality has increased massively over last 40 years driven massively over last 40 years driven by demand for high-skilled workersby demand for high-skilled workers

$186,529

$101,467

$57,464

$42,847

$29,810

$13,331

$38,304

$61,444

$91,881

$16,068

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

Lowest fifth Second fifth Middle fifth Fourth fifth Highest fifth

Income group

Fam

ily

inco

me

in 2

007

do

llar

s

1967 2007

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Income Tables - Families, Table F-3 Mean Income Received by Each Fifth and Top 5 Percent of Families, All Races: 1966 to 2007, http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/histinc/f03AR.html

Page 36: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

36© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Academics count: Preparing Academics count: Preparing students for college and workstudents for college and work

Completing advanced math courses in high school has a greater influence on

whether students will graduate from college than any other factor, including

family background; students who take math beyond Algebra II double their

chances of earning a bachelor’s degree.

Just taking advanced math has a direct impact on future earnings, apart from any

other factors; students who take advanced math have higher incomes ten years

after graduating—regardless of family background, classroom grades, and

college degrees.

Recent studies suggest that higher math skills at the end of high school*

translates into a 12 percent boost in wages. (* Scoring one standard deviation

higher on a standardized math test.)

Page 37: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

37© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Advanced math improves earningsAdvanced math improves earnings

5.5%

3.1%

3.2%4.2%

6.5%

1.6%3.0%

4.6% 4.6%0.7%

0%

15%

Pre-algebra Algebra/geometry

Algebra II Trig/ Pre-cal Calculus

Due to college completion boost Due to cognitive boost

Source: Rose, H. & Betts, J. R. (2004, May). The effect of high school courses on earnings. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(2), 497-513. Based on data in Table 2 on p. 501.

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Page 38: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

38© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Math skills are more consistently Math skills are more consistently related to postsecondary success related to postsecondary success than other competenciesthan other competencies

0.005

0.015

0.018

0.003

0.007

0.0000.001

0.008

0.017

0.010

0.002

0.024

0.015

0.037

0.029

0.011

0.004

0.029

0.000

0.010

0.020

0.030

0.040

Enroll in postsecondary ed Earn a bachelor's degree EarningsMa

rgin

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tag

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Math test score Work habits Sports-related competenciesProsocial behavior Leadership roles Locus of control

Source: Deke, D. & Haimson, J. (2006, September 15). Valuing student competencies: Which ones predict postsecondary educational attainment and earnings, and for whom? Princeton, NJ: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. (p. 21, TABLE IV.1)NOTE: Only the values at or above the red line were statistically significant.

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39© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

The screening test for electrician The screening test for electrician apprenticeshipsapprenticeships

Source: National Joint Apprenticeship and Training Committee for the Electrical Construction and Maintenance Industry, http://www.njatc.org/training/apprenticeship/index.aspx

Page 40: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

40© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Trades becoming more technical, Trades becoming more technical, requiring stronger math & readingrequiring stronger math & reading

“Don't be influenced by those who see the electrical construction trade as an occupation requiring only a strong back and a weak mind. The electrical trades are becoming more technical each day.”

—Website of the Electrical Training Institute of Southern California

“If you want to work in the real world, if you want to wire buildings and plumb buildings, that's when it requires algebra.”

—Don Davis, executive director of the Electrical Training Institute of Southern California (Los Angeles Times, January 30, 2006)

Page 41: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

41© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Trades becoming more technical, Trades becoming more technical, requiring stronger math & readingrequiring stronger math & reading

ACT Study: The math and reading skills required for electricians, construction workers, upholsterers, and plumbers same as what’s necessary to succeed in first-year college courses!

… but those skills are also increasingly important OUTSIDE of jobs!

ACT, Readiness for College and Readiness for Work: ACT, Readiness for College and Readiness for Work: Same or Different, Iowa City, IA. 2006 Same or Different, Iowa City, IA. 2006

Page 42: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

42© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Financial planning: Major shift in Financial planning: Major shift in retirement coverageretirement coverage

11%

61%

28%

60%

17%

23%

0%

75%

Defined benefit only Defined contribution only BothPe

rcen

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ate

se

cto

r w

ork

ers

with

pen

sio

n c

ov

era

ge 1980 2004

Source: Munnell, A. H., Haverstick, K., & Sanzenbacher, G. (2006, October). Job tenure and the spread of 401(k)s. Boston, MA: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. (p. 1, Figure 1)

Page 43: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

43© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Health care: Numeracy mattersHealth care: Numeracy matters

Have worse understanding of risks and make worse decisions about the benefits of mammography and experimental cancer treatments ;

Have a harder time taking prescribed medications (inhaled steroids, anticoagulation drugs) and as a result worse health outcomes and more hospitalizations ;

Have a harder time comprehending nutrition labels important for patients with chronic illnesses like hypertension and diabetes ;

Have a harder time comprehending information about health coverage options and make less informed choices about health plans ; and

Choose lower quality hospitals than more numerate patients when given the same information on medical outcomes.

Patients with lower math literacy:

Page 44: Preparing Students for the 21st Century-Jerald

44© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Stronger literacy, more job success and Stronger literacy, more job success and more more civic engagement!civic engagement!

68%73%

45%

73%76%

86%

57%

84%

45%41%

18%

54%56%62%

31%

57%

0%

100%

Employed Earn $500+ per week Volunteered in pastyear

Voted in lastpresidential election

Pe

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U.S

. ad

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e li

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lev

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Below basic Basic Intermediate Proficient

Source: Kutner, M., Greenberg, E., Jin, Y., Boyle, B., Hsu, Y., & Dunleavy, E. (2007). Literacy in everyday life: Results from the 2003 National Assessment of Adult Literacy. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education.

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64%

66%

67%

67%

74%

74%

75%

75%

63%

64%

64%

64%

50% 75%

Foreign languages

Self-direction/Lifelong learning

Written communications

Ethics

Work ethic

Oral communications

Leadership

Handling diversity

Creativity/Innovation

Teamwork/Collaboration

Information technology application

Critical thinking/Problem solving

Percent of employers who believe skill will become more important over next five years

Broad competencies: Employers Broad competencies: Employers expect them to become more expect them to become more importantimportant

Source: Conference Board. (2006). Are they really ready to work? (p. 49, Table 12)

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46© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Broad Competencies: Which are Broad Competencies: Which are most critical? The 3 C’s!most critical? The 3 C’s!

Critical thinking and problem solving► Labor economists Levy & Murnane call it “expert thinking”

Communication/Collaboration► Levy and Murnane call it “complex communications”

Creativity

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47© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Solve This ProblemSolve This Problem

Suppose you are a doctor faced with a patient who has a malignant tumor in his stomach. It is impossible to operate on the patient, but unless the tumor is destroyed the patient will die. There is a kind of ray that can be used to destroy the tumor. If the rays reach the tumor all at once at a sufficiently high intensity, the tumor will be destroyed. Unfortunately, at this intensity the healthy tissue that the rays pass through on the way to the tumor will also be destroyed. At lower intensities the rays are harmless to healthy tissue, but they will not affect the tumor either. What type of procedure might be used to destroy the tumor with the rays, and at the same time avoid destroying the healthy tissue?

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Critical Thinking & Problem Critical Thinking & Problem Solving: Important for high school Solving: Important for high school grads entering workforcegrads entering workforce

Nearly 60% of employers rate critical thinking and problem solving as “very important” for h.s. grads entering the workforce … yet 70% of employers rate them “deficient” in those skills.

While 73% of school superintendents think h.s. grads meet expectations for “problem solving,” only 45% percent of employers think so.

78% of employers expect critical thinking/problem solving to become even more important in the near future.

Sources: 1) Conference Board. (2006, October). Are they really ready to work? New York: Author. (p. 21, Table 3 and p. 32, Table 6)2) Conference Board. (2008, March). Ready to innovate: Are educators and executives aligned on the creative readiness of the U.S. workforce? New York: Author.

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Here’s another problemHere’s another problem

A small country was ruled from a strong fortress by a dictator. The fortress was situated in the middle of the country, surrounded by farms and villages. Many roads led to the fortress through the countryside. A rebel general vowed to capture the fortress. The general knew that an attack by his entire army would capture the fortress. He gathered his army at the head of one of the roads, ready to launch a full-scale direct attack.

However, the general then learned that the dictator had planted mines on each of the roads. The mines were set so that small bodies of men could pass over them safely, since the dictator needed to move his troops and workers to and from the fortress. However, any large force would detonate the mines. Not only would this blow up the road, but it would also destroy many neighboring villages. It therefore seemed impossible to capture the fortress.

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Did you see the pattern?Did you see the pattern?

Both problems have essentially the same answer: Dispersal of strength and re-gathering of strength at the point of attack.

Solving problems is hard because you get stuck on the surface facts and don’t see the deeper patterns and relationships.

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51© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Critical Thinking & Problem Critical Thinking & Problem Solving: Require deep content Solving: Require deep content knowledgeknowledge

Cognitive scientists used to believe that “thinking skills” could be taught directly and then applied to any situation.

Now they believe that’s wrong. Critical thinking is not a generic skill, but rather tied closely to contextual knowledge—deep understanding of the topic in question.

What is “deep knowledge”? Getting below the surface:► WHATs: Factual knowledge about the field, and► WHYs & HOWs: How those facts fit together, how and why

things are the way they are, and how things work the way they do.

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Communication & Collaboration: Which Communication & Collaboration: Which interpersonal skills need most work?interpersonal skills need most work?

47%

21%

12%

28%

10% 8%

81%

35%

54%

0%

100%

Written communications Oral communications Teamwork/collaborationPe

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rs r

ati

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en

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as

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H.S. grads 2-yr college grads 4-yr college grads

Source: Conference Board. (2006, October). Are they really ready to work? New York: Author. (pp. 32-34, Tables 6-8)

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53© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Communication & Collaboration: Communication & Collaboration: What are the most critical sub-skills?What are the most critical sub-skills?

Source: Conference Board. (2006, October). Are they really ready to work? New York: Author. (pp. 32-34, Tables 6-8)

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Creativity: Superintendents and Creativity: Superintendents and employers define it differentlyemployers define it differently

23%

48%

14%

47%

24%

37%

0%

60%

Problem identification orarticulation

Problem solving Comfort with "no rightanswer"P

erc

ent

ch

oo

sin

g s

kill

am

on

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op

th

ree

fo

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on

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Employers Superintendents

Source: Conference Board. (2008, March). Ready to innovate: Are educators and executives aligned on the creative readiness of the U.S. workforce? New York: Author. (p.7)

Top choice Top choice

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55© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Creativity: Superintendents and Creativity: Superintendents and employers have different views of employers have different views of H.S. grads’ creativity skillsH.S. grads’ creativity skills

57% 58%

75%

33%35%

56%

0%

80%

Comfort with "no rightanswer"

Ability to identify newpatterns of behavior ornew combinations of

action

Fundamental curiosityPe

rcen

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say

H.S

. gra

ds

me

et

ex

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cta

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ns Employers Superintendents

Source: Conference Board. (2008, March). Ready to innovate: Are educators and executives aligned on the creative readiness of the U.S. workforce? New York: Author. (p.7)

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III. Implications for schoolsIII. Implications for schools

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57© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009© Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

Five big takeawaysFive big takeaways

Students who obtain more education will be at a great advantage; increasingly, some postsecondary education or technical training is essential for an opportunity to support a family or secure a middle-class lifestyle.

The need for traditional knowledge and skills in school subjects like math, language arts, and science is not being “displaced” by a new set of “thinking skills”; in fact, students who take more advanced math courses and master higher math skills, for example, will have a distinct advantage over their peers.

At the same time, for success both on the job and in their personal lives, students must also better learn how to apply what they learn in those subjects to deal with real world challenges, rather than simply “reproduce” the information on tests.

Students who develop an even broader set of in-demand competencies—the ability to think critically about information, solve novel problems, communicate and collaborate, create new products and processes, and adapt to change—will be at an even greater advantage in work and life.

Applied skills and competencies can best be taught in the context of the academic curriculum, not as a replacement for it or “add on” to it; in fact, cognitive research suggests that some competencies like critical thinking and problem solving are highly dependent on deep content knowledge and cannot be taught in isolation.

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And when it comes to competencies And when it comes to competencies … clarity counts!… clarity counts!

1) Is there a shared definition of [critical thinking/collaboration/creativity] in your district, or is everyone free to define it however they want?

2) Does the definition match the real world demand for that skill, e.g., the way employers define it?

3) Is the definition detailed and specific enough so that teachers and students and other stakeholders really understand what is expected of them?

4) Are these skills incorporated into the curriculum, or have you just asked teachers to “address them” somehow?

Don’t assume “everyone knows” what [critical thinking/collaboration/creativity] is. Ask these questions:

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A few policy implicationsA few policy implications

Curriculum► Integrate into curriculum instead of purchasing stand-alone

“thinking skills” programs: They don’t work.► Where is the time for deeper understanding, real world

application, problem solving?► Focus: U.S. tends to have a curriculum that is “a mile wide

and an inch deep”—shallow and repetitive EG, U.S. math textbooks cover almost twice as many topics

per grade as Singapore’s. In Singapore, students expected to complete about one thorough lesson on a single topic per week; in U.S., about one lesson on a narrowly focused topic each day

► More time to explore subjects through open ended problems, collaborative projects, creativity

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A Few Policy ImplicationsA Few Policy Implications

Assessment► Teaching to the state test is too narrow:

EG, Recent study found that math tests in 10 states had too few complex problem solving questions to even measure whether there is a gender gap in such skills let alone whether students are being adequately prepared for real world work.

► Supplement with more challenging local assessments (other countries do that).

► Find early ways to gauge college preparedness, EG ACT’s EPAS system.

► For problem solving and applied literacy, key is to challenge students with less structured, more open ended problems in each subject. OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) framework and items can be helpful.

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Craig D. Jerald, Break the Curve Craig D. Jerald, Break the Curve ConsultingConsulting

NSBA 2009 Federal Relations ConferenceNSBA 2009 Federal Relations Conference

Washington, DC Washington, DC February 1, 2009 February 1, 2009

Preparing Preparing StudentsStudents

for thefor the

21 21 stst CenturyCentury