Preparing for a Sea Change: A Strategy for Florida Coast

8/9/2019 Preparing for a Sea Change: A Strategy for Florida Coast

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A Strategy to Cope with the Impacts o Global Warming on the States Coastal and Marine System

Caribbean Conservation Corporation, Environmental Deense Fund, Gul Restoration Network, Natural ResourDeense Council, National Wildlie Federation, Ocean Conservancy, Ree Relie, Te Surrider Foundat

Florida Coastal and Ocean Coalitio


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Preparing For A Sea Change In Florida

Pre face

With more coastline, diversity o marine habitats and ofshore area than any state in the continental U.S., Floridais the epitome o an ocean state. Yet Floridas coastal and ocean heritage stands to be severely harmed by globawarming. Indeed, scientic evidence shows that damage to our coastal and marine systems is inevitable. TeFlorida Coastal and Ocean Coalition, ormed in 2006, is committed to addressing this threat and, with the releaseo this report, calls upon our leaders to take the necessary steps to address the expected impacts o global warmingon the states unique coastal and marine resources.Te good news is that Florida is in a powerul position to emerge as a bold leader in the environmental efort topreserve natural resources in the ace o global warming, both by taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissionand by implementing sound coastal and ocean policies. Te Governor, through his Action eam on Energy andClimate Change, and the Legislature have set the stage or Florida to lead with vision on the critical issue ocoping with global warming. Responsible actions undertaken now can ensure the continued vitality o Floridaenvironment and economy and can serve as an important model around the nation and the world.

Who We Are

Te Florida Coastal and Ocean Coalition is a group o organizations working together to conserve, protect andrestore Floridas coastal and marine environment. Our steering committee organizations represent millions ocitizens across the country and over 200,000 activists in Florida, all deeply concerned or the states unique coastaand marine resources.

Te Coalition emphasizes an ecosystem-based approach to coastal and ocean management, as well as recognitiono the crucial link between the health o Floridas economy and the health o its beaches and dunes, coral reesmangroves, sea grasses, wetlands and other natural resources.Te Coalition calls on Floridas Congressional delegation, Governor, Cabinet and Legislature or action and

leadership to achieve the goal o healthy coastal and ocean ecosystems. In 2006 the Coalition published FloridasCoastal and Ocean Future: A Blueprint or Economic and Environmental Leadership, which outlines the mospressing environmental issues impacting our oceans and coasts (the report is available at our website wwwcoastalandocean.org). Since its release, 160 coastal and ocean businesses, civic, outdoor, and conservationorganizations have endorsed the Blueprint.Tis current report is intended to provide guidelines or concrete, science-based action on the critical issues Floridaaces in light o global warming and to stimulate inormed debate or the preservation o the signature naturaresources that make her unique.


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Foreword

As a longtime Florida resident, as well as an ocean lover, explorer and scientist, I amdeeply aware o the essential role that the coasts and ocean play in the lie o this greatstate. From the coral rees in the Keys to the glorious Panhandle beaches, rom thequiet bays near Clearwater, where I grew up, to the oyster beds o Apalachicola Bay, the

surng beaches o the Atlantic and the estuaries o the Gul, Florida possesses a richcoastal and ocean heritage. Tis heritage is threatened today as never beore. Sea-leverise, extreme weather patterns, warming waters and increasing ocean acidicationare all predicted to result rom the build up o CO

2in the atmosphere. No state is

more likely to sufer these impacts than Florida, with its low-lying and ood-proneareas, extensive coastline and high coastal population density. Florida can and mustbe a leader not only in curbing the build up o CO

2and other greenhouse gases in the

atmosphere, but also in implementing smart, common-sense coastal and ocean policiesthat will help preserve the states natural coastal and ocean heritage. Tis guide, put

together with careul thought by an impressive coalition o conservation organizations,lays out a roadmap or State policymakers to ollow in preserving that heritage. Te pathway is clear; what is

needed now is action.

Sylvia A. Earle, marine biologist, is the ormer chie scientist o the National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationShe is chairman o Deep Ocean Exploration and Research and has served as explorer-in-residence at the NationalGeographic Society since 1998. She is a trustee o Floridas Mote Marine Laboratory and graduated rom St. PetersburgCollege and Florida State University (Duke PhD). She serves on various corporate and nonproft boards, including theOcean Conservancy, the Explorers Club and as honorary trustee o the Natural Resources Deense Council.

Sylvia A. Earle,Marine Biologist

Child Watching Dolphins Play, iStockphoto

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Acknowledgements

Special thanks to science icon, ocean adventuress, and longtime Florida resident Sylvia Earle or not only the oreword to thisreport but or her lies work committed to better understanding and conservation o our oceans.

Many thanks to Patty Glick, primary author o this report, or her patience, dedication, and hard work. Sincere appreciationas well to David Conrad, Senior Resource Specialist, National Wildlie Federation; Raychelle Daniel, Conservation ScientistOcean Conservancy; Robert E. Deyle, Proessor, Department o Urban and Regional Planning, Florida State University; erry

Gibson, Projects Editor, Florida Sportsman Magazine; Dennis Heinemann, Senior Scientist, Ocean Conservancy; CharlesPattison, President, 1000 Friends o Florida; Lisa Suatoni, Ocean Scientist, Natural Resources Deense Council; Craig QuiroloMarine Projects Director, Ree Relie; Amanda Staudt, Global Warming Scientist, National Wildlie Federation; and HaWanless, Proessor o Geology, University o Miami or providing meaningul comments and guidance in the developmento this report. In addition, thank you to John Wark with Florida Media Strategies or shepherding this report through nadesign and public release. Special thanks to World Wildlie Fund or contributing resources toward the reports release.

Te Steering Committee members o the Florida Coastal and Ocean Coalition each developed, directed, and authoredsignicant portions o this report. Steering Committee members are: Gary Appelson, Caribbean Conservation CorporationSarah Chasis, Natural Resources Deense Council; Ericka DAvanzo, Te Surrider Foundation; Paul Johnson, Ree Relie;Gerald Karnas, Environmental Deense Fund; Joe Murphy, Gul Restoration Network; and David White, Ocean ConservancyTe Steering Committee would like to thank and recognize its Coordinator, .J. Marshall, and his Assistant, Georgia Bell, ortheir proessional and dedicated work in keeping us on track and schedule in preparing this report.

Finally, the Steering Committee wishes to express its gratitude and appreciation to the Directors o the Elizabeth OrdwayDunn Foundation and the Curtis and Edith Munson Foundation. Teir belie in and generous support o the Coalitionsmission to conserve, protect, and restore Floridas unique coastal and marine environment made this report possible. We alsosincerely thank the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation or its generous support or this work and or their commitment todeveloping a meaningul national strategy to cope with the serious impacts o global warming.

About the Pr imary Author

Patty Glick, Senior Global Warming Specialist at the National Wildlie Federation (NWF), has more than 18 years experienceworking on the issue o climate change. She has developed a targeted campaign at NWF to build greater awareness andunderstanding o the known and potential impacts o climate change on North Americas sh and wildlie and identiy and

implement meaningul solutions. Ms. Glick has led several research studies on sea-level rise and coastal habitats in Floridathe Chesapeake Bay, and the Pacic Northwest, and she is the author or co-author o numerous public reports, includingAnUnavorable ide; Coral Rees and Climate Change;A Great Wave Rising; and Te Gardeners Guide to Global Warming. Ms

Glick has a Masters Degree in economics rom the University o North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Copyright 2008 by the Florida Coastal and Ocean Coalition

This report is printed on Forest Stewardship Council Certified Recycled Paper


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About the Author ing Or gan izat ion

Caribbean Conservation Corporation and Sea urtle Survival LeagueCaribbean Conservation Corporation (CCC), ounded in 1959 by Dr. Archie Carr and based in Florida, is theoldest sea turtle conservation organization in the world. It is dedicated to the conservation o sea turtles throughresearch, training, advocacy, education and protection o habitats. Learn about CCC and Floridas sea turtles awww.cccturtle.org.

Environmental Defense FundEnvironmental Deense Fund, a leading national nonprot organization, represents more than 400,000 membersSince 1967, Environmental Deense Fund has linked science, economics, law and innovative private-sectopartnerships to create breakthrough solutions to the most serious environmental problems. Visit us at www.ed.orgor www.oceansalive.org.

Te Gulf Restoration Network (GRN) is a network o environmental, social justice, and citizens groups andindividuals committed to restoring the Gul o Mexico to an ecologically and biologically sustainable condition. TeGRN was ormed in 1994 to raise awareness o environmental issues in Gul States and to increase communication

and coordination o member activities across the region. We are playing a pivotal role in providing our memberand partners with the technical inormation, Gul-wide networking opportunities, and communication thaempowers local communities to successully address the environmental threats that they ace. Visit us atwww.healthygul.org.

Natural Resources Defense CouncilNRDC (Natural Resources Deense Council) is a national nonprot environmental organization with more than1.2 million members and online activists. Since 1970, our lawyers, scientists, and other environmental specialisthave worked to protect the worlds natural resources, public health, and the environment. NRDC has o ces in NewYork City, Washington, D.C., Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Beiijing. Visit us at www.nrdc.org.

National Wildlife FederationNational Wildlie Federation inspires Americans to protect wildlie or our childrens uture. Trough a nationwidnetworka ederation o grassroots activists and wildlie enthusiasts dedicated to protecting wildlie and wildplaces, NWF has built a national coalition o members who carry our message to cities and rural communitieshomes and town halls, Congress and state legislatures, elementary schools and universities, courts and internationa

venues. Visit us at www.nw.org.

Ocean ConservancyOcean Conservancy works to protect ocean ecosystems and conserve the global abundance and diversity o marinewildlie. Trough research, education and science-based advocacy, Ocean Conservancy inorms, inspires, andempowers people to speak and act on behal o the oceans. Learn more at www.oceanconservancy.org.

Reef ReliefRee Relie is a nonprot grassroots membership organization dedicated to Preserve and Protect Living Coral ReeEcosystems through local, regional and international eforts. Visit us at www.reerelie.org.

Te Surfrider FoundationTe Surrider Foundation is a nonprot environmental organization dedicated to the protection and enjoymento the worlds oceans, waves and beaches or all people, through conservation, activism, research and educationRepresented by over 50,000 members and 64 local chapters in the U.S., the Surrider Foundation also has a liationin Australia, Japan, France, and Brazil. Visit us at www.surrider.org.


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Contents

Executive Summary 8

Global Warming and Florida 9 Meeting the Challenge

Conronting the Impacts o Sea-Level Rise 13

Beaches and Coastal Property 13Water Supplies and Water Quality 14Coastal Wetlands 15

Recommended Actions to Prepare or Sea-Level Rise 16

State/Local Government Actions 20Federal/Regional Government Actions 21

Conronting the Impacts o Extreme Weather Events 22

Recommended Actions to Deal with Extreme Weather Events 24


Conronting the Impacts o Higher Ocean Temperatures 26

Coral Bleaching and Diseases 26Shis in Species Ranges and Population Abundances 27

Recommended Actions to Reduce the Impacts o Higher Ocean Temperatures 28


Conronting the Impacts o Increased Ocean Acidifcation 31

Recommended Actions to Address Acidifcation 32


Conclusion 33

Reerences 34


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Execut ive Summar y

Florida is unique not only or her beauty and wealth o marine resources but her position o leadership and abilityto orge a path or coastal communities worldwide to proactively ace the looming and potentially devastatingimpacts o climate change. Te Florida Coastal and Ocean Coalition, a group o environmental organizationsworking together to conserve, protect and restore Floridas coastal and marine environment examines an ecosystem-based approach to coastal and ocean management in light o climate change, along with the important linkages

between the health o Floridas economy and the health o its beaches and dunes, coral rees, mangroves, seagrasses, wetlands and other natural resources.

Floridas coastal and marine habitats and the numerous ecological and economic resources they provide areinvaluable to the millions o people who live in Florida or visit the state each year. Te world class beaches generatetens o billions o dollars rom tourism and recreation and provide habitat or numerous species o birds, seaturtles, and other wildlie. Coastal marshes, mangrove orests, seagrass beds, and other habitats remove excessnutrients and pollutants, act as a bufer against ooding, and support the vast majority o Floridas marine shand shellsh. And the coral rees in the Southeast and the Florida Keys are home to thousands o marine speciessupport a thriving tourism industry, and protect Floridas coasts rom erosion and storm damage. Tese coastaland marine systems dene Florida and rame the lives o Floridians.

Unortunately, Floridas coastal and marine systems already have experienced serious degradation as a result oa variety o actors, including pollution, poorly sited coastal development, altered reshwater ows, and harmulshing practices. Numerous restoration and protection eforts have been undertaken to tackle these problems,but the uture o Floridas coastal and ocean resources also depends on addressing the very real threat o globalwarming. With Floridas human population expected to grow considerably in the coming decades, proactivelyconronting these challenges today is o paramount importance.

Leatherback Sea urtle Hatchlings Emerging From Teir NestSebastian roeng, Caribbean Conservation Corporation


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Global Warming and Florida

Few coastal states are as vulnerable to the consequences o global warming as Florida, and we are already startingto see its efects. Average temperatures in parts o the state have increased by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit sincethe 1960s (U.S. EPA, 1997). Without a signicant reduction in global emissions o carbon dioxide (CO

2) and

other heat-trapping greenhouse gases over the next ew decades, average temperatures in Florida will continue toincrease in the coming decades, with average low temperatures in winter increasing 3 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit andaverage high temperatures in summer increasing 3 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100 (Harwell, Gholz, and Rose2001).

Global warming means more than just hotter weather. It is contributing to higher ocean temperatures, more-extreme weather events, and rising sea levels. In addition, the higher concentration o CO

2in the atmosphere is

directly altering the chemistry o our oceans, causing the water to become more acidic (Kleypas, et al., 2005). Leunchecked, all o these changes will have a proound impact on Floridas coastal and marine ecosystems:

Rising sea levels will increase erosion o beaches, cause saltwater intrusion into water supplies, inundate coastamarshes and other important habitats, and make coastal property more vulnerable to storm surges.

More-extreme weather events, including intense rainall, oods, droughts, and tropical storms, will alter reshwater

ows into estuaries and lagoons, exacerbate polluted runo and water supply problems, and damage coastahabitats and property.

Higher ocean temperatures will cause extensive coral bleaching, enhance marine diseases, alter species ranges andpopulation abundances, and harm fsheries.

Higher ocean acidity will inhibit the ability o corals and other marine organisms to build up calcium carbonate,the substance that orms their protective skeletons.

Meeting the Challenge

While it may seem daunting, Florida has a real opportunity to conront these collective problems but it will takea concerted efort on two important ronts: minimizing global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissionsand preparing or changes that are already underway.

First and oremost, Florida and the rest o the nation must work to lessen the impact o global warming by reducingthe pollution causing it. In particular, the State o Florida, Congress and the Administration must place mandatorylimits on the nations global warming pollution to ensure we meet the necessary target o an 80 percent reductionin emissions below current levels by 2050 [see Box 1 on page 12].

However, even i we successully achieve critical greenhouse gas reduction goals, Florida is still acing impacts

rom climate change over the coming decades due to the continuing efects o greenhouse gases that are alreadyin the atmosphere and those that we will continue to emit while transitioning to new energy sources. New andenhanced ecosystem restoration and adaptation strategies will be needed.

Tis report outlines the issues and concerns, but more importantly, identies a series o recommended actions orlocal, state and ederal agencies to cope with the signicant challenges posed by rising sea levels, more-extremestorm events, higher ocean temperatures, and acidication o ocean waters. Some o the recommended actions


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will require Floridas Governor, Legislature, and Congressional delegation to provide the directives, undingmechanisms, and leadership to move orward. However, many programs and policies are already in place andcan be used to begin making adaptive changes to a warming world. Tese recommendations, more ully detailedwithin, can be summarized as ollows:

Preparing For Sea-Level Riseo prepare or sea-level rise, Florida and the ederal government must take steps to implement ecologically and

economically sound adaptive policies and strategies that discourage development in vulnerable areas and supporteforts to site structures arther landward o eroding shorelines. Tis is essential not only to help reduce the seriousrisks to human saety and well being o communities, but also to ensure the preservation o beaches, dunes, andother natural coastal habitats that are so important to our economy and quality o lie. For example:

Te state should undertake a comprehensive reevaluation o the Coastal Construction Control Line regulatory program to ensure that it is accomplishing the intended goals o protecting lie, property, and the beach/dunesystem.

Te Florida Department o Environmental Protection and other relevant agencies should develop state wetlandsconservation and restoration plans that promote designation o wetland migration as sea levels rise, therebyprotecting the valuable benefts they provide.

Federal, state, and local governments should replace economic incentives or private development in high riskcoastal areas with incentives to relocate and build in other areas and invest in coastal conservation.

Dealing With Extreme Weather Eventso deal with extreme weather events, such as heavy downpours and droughts, Florida and ederal agencies mustemphasize the protection and restoration o shoreline and streamside riparian vegetation and wetlands, upgradestormwater management to take account o more requent and heavier rainall events, and increase water usee ciency and opportunities or benecial reuse. For example:

Te Florida Department o Environmental Protection should upgrade stormwater regulations, taking the likelihoodo heavier rainall events into consideration. Policies should ocus on Low Impact Development methods, both ornew developments and retrofts in existing developed areas.

Te Florida Department o Environmental Protection should evaluate/revise the Florida Water Plan (and regionawater management plans) to explicitly address climate change.

Te States o Florida, Georgia, and Alabama should actively engage in a collaborative eort to develop andimplement a long-term regional water management plan that incorporates climate change and takes a morecoordinated approach to water management.


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Reducing The Impacts Of Higher Ocean Temperatureso reduce the impacts o higher ocean temperatures, Florida and ederal agencies must work to protect and restorecoastal and marine ecosystems in order to enhance their ability to deal with the additional stresses caused byclimate change. For example:

Te Florida Department o Environmental Protection should evaluate and monitor the eectiveness o the statescollective coastal and aquatic managed areas and coastal zone management programs in supporting biologicaldiversity among fsh and wildlie species and should develop strategies to strengthen these programs.

Te Fish and Wildlie Conservation Commission should promote the rebuilding o depleted coastal and oceanfsh populations since depleted populations will have a harder time dealing with the additional stresses posed byclimate change and warming waters.

Congress should enact climate adaptation legislation that would provide unding as well as require ederal andstate agencies to protect and strengthen the health o coastal and ocean ecosystems.

Addressing Acidificationo address acidication, Florida and the nation must be leaders in eforts to minimize global warming throughsignicant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, in addition to supporting research and monitoring eforts toassess and mitigate the impacts o acidication on sh and wildlie. For example:

Federal and state agencies should make monitoring o ocean pH and calcifcation rates a part o the coral monitoringplans in the ortugas Ecological Reserve, the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, Biscayne National Parkand Oculina Bank Habitat Area o Particular Concern.

Relevant ederal and state agencies should invest in studies to better understand the ecological impacts o oceanacidifcation.

By implementing these and the other recommendations, we can help change the orecast or Floridas coastal andocean resources and ensure that the economic opportunities, ecological benets, and outdoor traditions theyprovide will endure or generations to come.


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[Box 1]

Avoiding Catastrophe

Scientists are optimistic that the impacts of global warming can be lessened if significant action is taken now and within

the next few decades to reduce the emissions of CO2

and other greenhouse gases to stabilize their concentrations in the Earths

atmosphere. Without such action, the projected impacts are likely to be catastrophic for people and wildlife alike.

Research shows that 20-30 percent of species worldwide are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in

average global temperatures exceed 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above pre-industrial levels (IPCC, 2007b). These extinctions will be

accompanied by major changes in the structure and function of ecosystems. This 3.6 degree Fahrenheit threshold is also critical

to the ultimate survival of the worlds coral reefs, including those in Florida and the Caribbean, which are threatened by extensive

bleaching due to higher ocean temperatures as well as acidification of ocean waters (Hoegh-Guldberg, 2007).

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the only way to keep temperatures from increasing

more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit in the next century is to take substantial steps immediately to reduce global warming pollution.

To have a reasonable chance of staying below 3.6 degrees of warming, greenhouse gases in the atmosphere need to stay below 450

parts per million of CO2

equivalent (IPCC, 2007c). To reach this level, the growth in global greenhouse gas emissions will need to

be halted within the next ten years and overall emissions cut by 50-85 percent below current levels within the next 50 years. For

industrial nations, particularly the United States, this will mean a reduction on the order of 80 percent below current levels by mid-

century, followed by further reductions toward zero by 2100.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist has taken a critical step forward by signing Executive Order 07-127, which established a

set of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for the state of Florida, culminating in a reduction by 80 percent of 1990 levels by

2050. The recommendations from the Governors Action Team on Energy and Climate Change in its November 1, 2007 Phase 1

report to the governor, an important first step to achieve that goal. By October 1, 2008, the Phase 2 report is due and will include

recommendations for reducing or sequestering greenhouse gas emissions, identifying opportunities to promote energy-efficient

technologies and renewable resources that will enhance economic growth, and the development of adaptation strategies to combat

the projected adverse impacts of climate change to society, the economy, and natural systems. These policy recommendations will

form the basis for Floridas comprehensive Energy and Climate Change Action Plan. An Adaptation Technical Work Group has been

formed to provide input into the Action Teams formulation of adaptation recommendations.

Coastal Erosion Aer Hurricane Jeanne, FEMA


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Confront ing the Impacts o f Sea-Leve l R i se

Global warming is causing sea levels to rise due to a combination o thermal expansion o the oceans and rapidlymelting glaciers and ice sheets.Te average global (eustatic) sea level rose about 6.7 inches over the 20th century.Tis was 10-times aster than the average rate o sea-level rise during the last 3,000 years (IPCC, 2007a). In thecoming decades, the rate o sea-level rise is expected to accelerate. With its vast expanse o coastline, low-lyingtopography, and growing coastal population, Florida is one o the most vulnerable places in the nation to the

impacts o sea-level rise. Relative sea-level rise (which incorporates localized changes in land elevation) in parts oFlorida has already outpaced the global average South Florida, or example, has seen a 9 inch rise since the 1930s(Wanless, Parkinson, and edesco, 1994).

Te most recent estimates rom the 2007 IPCC assessment show an additional 7 to 23 inch rise in global averagesea level by the 2090s (IPCC, 2007a). However, scientists are becoming increasingly concerned that the rate oglobal sea-level rise in the coming decades and beyond will be considerably greater than these projections, asseveral new studies have determined that the ice sheets o Greenland and parts o Antarctica are melting muchmore rapidly than previously thought (Otto-Bliesner, et al, 2006; Overpeck, et al., 2006; Rignot and Kanagaratnam2006). According to Dr. James Hansen, Director o NASAs Goddard Institute or Space Studies, i greenhouse gasemissions continue to increase on a business-as-usual trajectory, we could ultimately see a disintegration o the

West Antarctica ice sheets. Tis has the potential to yield a sea-level rise on the order o 5 meters this century(Hansen, 2007). Indeed, sea-level rise o this magnitude would have enormous global consequences.

Even at the lower range o projected sea-level rise or the coming decades, Florida will see signicant and costlyimpacts, including inundation o coastal property and inrastructure, greater vulnerability to storm surges anderosion, and the destruction o vital coastal habitats. According to the Miami-Dade County Climate ChangeAdvisory ask Force (CCAF) in its January 2008 Statement on Sea Level in the Coming Century, A urther2-oot sea-level rise by the end o the century, as projected in the 2001 IPCC report, would make lie in southFlorida very di cult or everyone (Miami-Dade County CCAF, 2008a).

Beaches and Coastal PropertySea-level rise will increase beach erosion and associated shoreline recession and have a proound impact on Floridasbeaches, the beach using public, and the tourism industry. Indeed, beaches are one o the states most importanteconomic engines, generating tens o billions o dollars in annual revenues (Florida Atlantic University, 2005).A healthy beach/dune system protects upland property rom storm damage. Floridas beaches provide criticalhabitat or endangered sea turtles, shorebirds, invertebrates, orage sh, and other species that are part o the statesinvaluable natural heritage.

Unortunately, Floridas beaches are already disappearing due to a combination o actors, including developmentand armoring on the beach in the active littoral system, sediment starvation due to inlets and jetties, coastal

storms, and sea-level rise. Te Florida Department o Environmental Protection (DEP) estimates that nearlyhal o Floridas 825 miles o beaches are currently critically eroded (DEP, 10/26/2007). Much o this erosion isattributable to the states navigation inlets and the jetties used to stabilize those inlets, which interrupt the naturalow o sand along beaches by causing sand to accumulate in the inlet channel, against the jetties, or within shoalsat the mouth and interior o the inlet.

In addition, shoreline development on eroding beaches establishes a line in the sand that property owners oen tryto deend with seawalls and other armoring structures. Seawall construction reduces a beachs natural resiliency

1 Eustatic (also referred to as global) sea-level rise refers to the changes in ocean volume due to thermal expansion and melting glaciers and ice sheets. Atthe localized level, the amount ofrelative sea-level rise can vary due to factors (both natural and human-influenced) that determine changes in vertical land elevation,

such as land subsidence, sedimentation, and marsh accretion.


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to respond to coastal storms by diminishing the beach/dune systems ability to retreat or eed downdri beachesduring storm events (ait and Griggs, 1990). Armoring may also increase the vulnerability o adjacent unarmoredproperties to storm damage by reecting wave energy around the structures. Studies have ound that the alterationo sandy beaches by coastal armoring can signicantly reduce the diversity and abundance o macroinvertebratesshorebirds, and other sh and wildlie species that depend on beach habitats (Dugan and Hubbard, 2006). Recentstorm events have already increased pressure or seawall development in parts o Florida. For example, aerHurricane Dennis in 2005, Walton County in the Florida Panhandle issued nearly 250 permits to coastal propertyowners to allow installation o temporary armoring structures. Ultimately, this resulted in the installation o

several miles o solid seawalls (Gibeaut, 2006).

One o the primary ways in which Florida has addressed beach erosion is through beach re-nourishment, whichinvolves the repeated use o dredged materials to replace lost sand. While such projects can help maintain someo the economic benets o beaches, including recreational use and protection o coastal property, there isconsiderable evidence that it diminishes important sh and wildlie habitat by burying shallow rees, temporarilydepressing sea turtle nesting, and reducing densities o invertebrate prey or shorebirds, sur shes, and crabs(Peterson and Bishop, 2005). Some areas o Florida are already running out o beach-quality sand and the costso re-nourishment and locating distant sand sources are rising substantially. In all likelihood, pressures or beachre-nourishment and coastal armoring will be exacerbated by sea-level rise given the signicant added risk o beach

inundation and erosion.

Te loss o beaches and coastal property associated with sea-level rise will have enormous economic costs orFlorida, let alone incalculable ecological consequences (Schlacher, et al., 2007). A recent analysis o the potentiaeconomic costs o sea-level rise and associated storm damage in six Florida counties ound that severe stormevents and associated damage costs are likely to increase signicantly during this century, with coastal propertylosses likely to double under a sea-level rise scenario o 2 eet by 2080, which is within the range o sea-level riseprojected by the IPCC (Harrington and Walton, 2007). In addition, researchers at us University ound thata scenario o a 27 inch sea-level rise would make 9 percent o Floridas current land area (4,700 square miles) vulnerable to inundation (Stanton and Ackerman, 2007). Tey predict that continued sea-level rise and othechanges due to climate change could ultimately cost the state $327 billion (in 2006 dollars) by 2100 due to lost

tourism revenue, hurricane damages, and at-risk real estate. Furthermore, as the threat o erosion continues toincrease, the demand or beach re-nourishment is likely to increase as well as will its cost to Floridas taxpayers.One early study published by the U.S. EPA estimated that it would cost Florida close to $1.7 billion to replenishsand beaches lost to a 1/2 meter (19.7 inch) rise in sea level and up to $11.8 billion or a 2 meter (78.7 inch) risein sea level (Leatherman, 1989).

Water Supplies and Water Quality

Inundation and saltwater intrusion into reshwater supplies is a concern or many coastal communities, particularlyin South Florida, where water resources are stretched thin by competing needs and the low-lying aquiers are the

primary reshwater supply or the regions wells (willey, et al., 2001). Extensive water use in some areas, combinedwith pervasive drought conditions, has already lowered the water table and contributed to saltwater intrusion intolocal water supplies, a problem that is likely to worsen with sea-level rise.

While studies to date have been limited, a preliminary estimate o the impacts o sea-level rise on the regionalwater resources o Southeastern Florida suggests that a sea-level rise o 6 inches by 2050 (which is well within therange o projected sea-level rise by mid-century) will likely contribute to increased potential or ooding and agreater need or water-use cutbacks to maintain the aquier (rimble, Santee, and Deidrauer, 1998).


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Coastal Wetlands

In addition to threatening coastal beach property and inrastructure, sea-level rise will have a signicant impact onFloridas salt marshes and swamps, mangrove orests, and other coastal and estuarine habitats and the numerousecological and economic resources they provide. O particular concern is the act that many o the states importantcoastal habitats have already been damaged or destroyed by extensive dredging, coastal modications, pollutionand other development. Tis makes remaining habitat all the more important or sh and wildlie and underscoresthe importance o conservation and restoration eforts, including the multi-decade, multi-billion dollarComprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). o be successul, however, sea-level rise and other climatechanges must be taken into consideration in developing and implementing relevant coastal wetland conservationstrategies, as these systems ace changes in the coming decades that are ar greater than the context accounted orin past restoration planning (willey, 2007).

Tere is evidence that sea-level rise is already afecting coastal habitats in many areas (Krueger and Pittman, 2008).For example, along Floridas Gul Coast, saltwater intrusion rom a combination o sea-level rise and reduced

reshwater ows due to extreme droughtconditions has contributed to a signicantdecline in regeneration o cabbage palm, red

cedar, and other coastal trees (Desantis, et al.2007). And in parts o the Everglades, sea-level rise has led to the upland migration omangrove orests, which have been able totake advantage o changing habitat conditionsin areas previously dominated by reshwatermarsh (Walker, Smith, and Whelan, 2003)Changes such as these are projected to becomeeven more signicant as the rate o sea-levelrise accelerates in the coming decades.

A 2006 study o the potential impacts osea-level rise at nine o the most importantsportshing areas along Floridas coast oundthat, with a moderate 15 inch eustatic sea-leverise, nearly 50 percent o critical salt marsh and84 percent o tidal ats at these sites would belost, while mangroves are expected to expandinland, increasing in area by 36 percent (Glick2006). Te area o dry land is projected todecrease by 14 percent, and roughly 30 percent

o the areas ocean beaches and two-thirds oestuarine beaches would disappear. Te vastmajority o Floridas marine sh and shellshspecies depend on salt marshes, tidal ats, andother habitats ound in the states bays andestuaries, so the projected changes to thesehabitats due to sea-level rise are likely to havea considerable impact on Floridas commercialand recreational sheries.

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Coastal Mud Flats At Low ide, iStockPhoto


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In some cases, marshes may be able to accommodate moderate changes in sea level through natural sedimentationand marsh accretion (the build-up o organic and/or inorganic matter). However, studies have shown that therates o sedimentation and accretion or many o Floridas marshes are ailing to keep pace with the rate o sea-level rise. For example, the relative rate o sea-level rise in the Big Bend region has been slightly higher than theglobal average due to marsh subsidence, which has been at least in part the result o insu cient riverine sedimentsupply (Cross, et al., 2001).Tis disparity is expected to worsen as the rate o sea-level rise accelerates with globawarming (Morris, et al., 2005). Similarly, the extensive re-plumbing o South Florida has signicantly reducedows o reshwater through the Everglades and into Florida Bay and altered plant productivity, making the system

less able to build soils through accretion (willey, 2007). One study suggests that the maximum rate o sea-levelrise that mangroves can sustain is 9 inches or less over the next century, which is lower than the current rate andconsiderably lower than the projected rates o sea-level rise under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions(willey, 1997).

In addition, while some new wetlands are likely to be created in low-lying upland coastal zones as sea-level rises,eforts to minimize land loss and protect roads, buildings, and other structures will likely lead to more armoringo shorelines, precluding the development o new wetlands in those areas (itus, et al., 1991). Unless major efortsare implemented to enable migration o wetland habitats as sea-level rises, the loss o these habitats will have asignicant adverse impact on Floridas ecology and economy. idal wetlands help protect coastal water quality

and stabilize shallow water and intertidal zones. Many game sh and other species depend on coastal marshes andseagrass beds or spawning, eeding, and protection. Wetland loss would also reduce essential habitat or importantprey species, including shrimp, crabs, and smaller sh, which would have ripple efects throughout Floridas marineood web. With thoughtul planning it is possible to allow over time or expected wetland migration.

Recommended Act ions to Prepare for Sea-Leve l R i se

Sea-level rise due to global warming is one o the greatest threats to Floridas coast in the coming years. Fortunatelywe have the opportunity to minimize the risks and ensure that Floridas precious coastal resources and the ecologicaland economic benets they provide will endure or our children and grandchildren. But there is no time or delay

Many o the decisions we make today rom where and how we build our homes, businesses, and highways, tohow much and what kinds o energy we use will have a signicant impact on our resources, land use, and evenour climate or many decades to come.

Failure to take sea-level rise into consideration in these decisions will not only place many o Floridas coastalcommunities at risk, but it would have costly and irreversible consequences or human and natural systemsCertainly many o the ederal and state procedures or planning and assessing conditions or coastal and shorelinedevelopment ail to incorporate efects o sea-level rise, climate change, and uture development associated witha rapidly growing human population. Now is the time or Florida (and relevant ederal agencies) to develop acomprehensive strategy to conront sea-level rise in a way that reduces the risks to communities by discouragingbuilding in vulnerable areas, and increases the resiliency and protection o coastal habitats by a) steering away rom

structural armoring o Floridas shorelines; b) avoiding beach re-nourishment projects where especially harmulor ecosystems, and c) restoring and protecting natural bufers.

Several coastal communities have made an important start. Since 2000, the U.S. EPA has been working with anumber o Floridas Regional Planning Councils mapping how sea-level rise would afect the states coastline in theuture, and identiy those areas in which communities are most likely to invest in structural protection measures(reasure Coast Regional Planning Council, 2005). In addition, both Southwest Florida Water ManagementDistrict Wetland Restoration Program and Miami-Dade County are developing plans to address sea-level rise intheir jurisdictions. o be successul, however, these plans must explicitly address coastal ecosystem protectionsand actions must be coordinated across the state.


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Deyle, et al., (2007) identied uncertainty about sea-level rise scenarios and impacts as the biggest constraint toplanning or sea-level rise. Clearly, state and ederal agencies, universities, and other relevant organizations shouldcontinue to invest in eforts to assess the vulnerability o Floridas coasts to sea-level rise though improved mappingincluding using the latest Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) coastal elevation data, ecosystem modeling, andother activities. However, uncertainty about exactly when and how much sea-level rise will occur should not beused as an excuse or inaction. Rather, the very act that there is signicant risk and the potential or irreversibledamages necessitates precautionary action.

Floridas coastal management and coastal development policies currently do not pro-actively take sea-level riseinto consideration. Tere is no mention o climate change or sea-level rise in Floridas 2007 Strategic BeachManagement Plan (DEP, 2007). Similarly, there is an immediate need to reassess the states Coastal ConstructionControl Line (CCCL) program, the oundation o Floridas coastal management policies. Te current CCCLprogram was established in 1978 to preserve and protect Floridas beach/dune system rom imprudent constructionand still provide reasonable use o private property. Te design and placement o construction seaward o theCCCL, which corresponds to the landward reach o a 100-year storm surge, is regulated by DEP and authorized bystatute. Te program does not take sea-level rise scenarios into consideration. In addition, there is no specic duneprotection setback ensuring the protection o coastal dunes. Surprisingly, there is also little coordination betweenthe Department o Community Afairs (DCA), DEP, and Regional Planning Councils on climate change issues

including integration o respective agency policies to better protect coastal and marine resources and planning todevelop efective adaptation and relocation strategies to protect these resources.

Deying long term planning needs in the ace o climate change, Florida continues to encourage, allow, andsubsidize high risk coastal development in several ways. For example, DEP, in accordance with state law, regularlyissues permits or beach-ront construction at risk o damage by erosion. While the CCCL regulatory programgenerally prohibits construction seaward o a line equal to where annual wave events are projected to reach in30 years, loopholes oen render this sensible setback inefective, such as by allowing development on the rontal

Condo Under Construction and Almost in theSur Zone, Singer Island. Photo: CCC


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dunes o the most erosive beaches in the state (Levina, E., et al. 2007). Exemptions or building seaward o the30-year erosion line are mandated or single amily homes on lots plated beore 1985 and are routinely grantedi there is an existing line o construction or a pending beach nourishment project. Te 30-year erosion line isessentially waived or moved seaward a distance based on the projected unding commitment or continual re-nourishment. Structures are allowed to be built on land known to be washing away based on long term undingor re-nourishment and not on the expected lie o the re-nourishment project. In addition, the CCCL permittingprogram does not account or the potential or extreme erosion associated with hurricanes such as occurred in2004 and 2005 which can result in permitted structures on the beach.

Although the primary ocus o the state-nanced Citizens Property Insurance Corporation (CPIC) is to providecoverage or wind damage rom storms, the general availability o CPIC also results in a subsidy or ill-advisedconstruction in coastal high hazard areas ronting vulnerable and eroding beaches. Insurance coverage is providedregardless o whether development is thousands o eet rom the shore or adjacent to the most seaward line odunes on eroding beaches. In addition, CPIC coverage is provided to builders, investors, and homeowners alongthe coast regardless o the historical erosion rates, storm history, or requency o repeat claims.

In specic situations, CPIC coverage may actually be working to undermine ederal and state eforts to protectcoastal resources, such as those ofered by the Coastal Barrier Resources Act (CBRA), which was established in

1982. CBRA denies ederal subsidies such as ood insurance to development projects on undeveloped areas onbarrier islands prone to erosion and ood damage. Its goals were to minimize loss o lie, stop wasteul expenditureso ederal unds, and protect coastal resources (Bush, et al., 2004). CPIC coverage is provided or development inCBRA zones irrespective o consistency with the ederal prohibition. CPIC also ails to consider specic stateinitiatives to protect coastal resources. For example, the CCCL is periodically reevaluated aer storm events toensure the regulatory line is unctioning as intended to protect property and the beach/dune system. When theCCCL is deemed inadequate due to coastal erosion it is reset landward. Tis process can take several years. Betweenthe time the state determines the line to be inadequate and the time it is reestablished, homes may be constructedand sited improperly. CPIC coverage is not withheld awaiting reestablishment o the line, thereby supportinginappropriate coastal development. It is also questionable whether coverage should be provided or rebuildingseaward o the 30 year erosion projection line.

Tese policies not only place buildings and inrastructure in harms way but, in an era o increased coastal erosionand rising seas, threaten the unctioning o the beach/dune system and coastal wetlands and increase theirvulnerability to coastal storms and high tides. Tis, in turn, increases demand or more beach nourishment andmore bulkheads and seawalls (itus, 2000). Such a scenario points to a grim uture or one o Floridas mostvaluable natural resources, its coastal system.

Similarly, many ederal agencies have thus ar ailed to incorporate efects o accelerating sea-level rise and reasonablyoreseeable efects o climate change into their procedures, such as incorporating likely uture conditions intomapping o oodplains, storm surge zones, or ood elevations afected by increasing impervious development inwatersheds in the Federal Emergency Management Agencys (FEMA) National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)and the planning o ood damage reduction projects by the Army Corps o Engineers (ACE). Current proceduresare based almost entirely on looking backwards at past records only, rather than incorporating current climatescience. Such updating is needed across the nation, as well as here in Florida.


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Failure to proactively address these concerns would be increasingly costly. On a national level, ood damagescurrently cost an alarming $6 billion per year triple what they were in the early 20th century (in adjusted dollars). Asignicant portion o these losses are rom propertieswith repetitive ooding histories. In 1995, Floridaranked sixth among states in NFIP repetitive-lossproperties (those with at least two ood insuranceclaims paid within a 10-year period since 1978). Atthe time, Florida had 3,087 such properties, having

cost the NFIP $95.5 million in claims payments(Conrad, et al., 1998). As o February 29, 2008,Florida ranked third in the nation, behind Louisianaand exas, with 14,888 (non-mitigated) repetitiveloss properties and total NFIP payments o $1.15billion (FEMA, 2008). Te majority (14,334) arelocated in the states coastal counties, with paymentsthere totaling more than $1.12 billion (see able1). Currently, the NFIP nds itsel in a virtuallyinsurmountable debt to the U.S. reasury o more

than $17 billion, and interest payments o morethan $700 million annually. Increased attentionmust be paid to substantially reducing the numbersand risks associated with ood prone properties,including making signicantly greater investmentsin meaningul mitigation strategies.

Te State o Florida and the ederal governmentmust take steps to implement ecologically andeconomically sound adaptive policies and strategiesthat discourage development in vulnerable areas and

support eforts to site structures arther landwardo eroding shorelines. Tis is essential not onlyto help reduce the serious risks to human saetyand well being o communities, but also to ensurethe preservation o beaches, dunes, and othernatural coastal habitats that are so important to oureconomy and quality o lie. A number o strategiesare possible, including rolling easements, targetedcoastal land acquisition, tax incentives or landwardrelocation o development, transer o developmentrights, conservation easements, buyouts, strictersetbacks with various strategies to compensate or takings claims, restrictions on rebuilding aer storm destructionmeaningul dune protection setbacks, improved comprehensive planning, and other possible policies. Te ollowingrecommended actions would provide Florida with the much-needed opportunities and guidance to capitalize onthese important measures.

[Table 1] Florida Coastal County Repetitive Loss Totals

(Non-Mitigated Properties) as of February 29, 2008

County Total Cumulative Losses

Bay County 51,328,481

Brevard County 4,628,864

Broward County 20,641,299

Charlotte County 4,457,875

Citrus County 20,111,500

Collier County 2,831,377

Dixie County 3,098,573

Duval County 13,796,212

Escambia County 256,321,525

Flagler County 617,407

Franklin County 6,124,677

Gulf County 3,494,990

Hernando County 5,528,585

Hillsborough County 21,396,674Indian River County 21,363,484

Lee County 30,281,034

Levy County 3,798,260

Manatee County 13,558,311

Martin County 16,052,691

Miami-Dade County 156,195,550

Monroe County 58,372,730

Nassau County 617,501

Okaloosa County 121,774,398

Palm Beach County 14,924,802

Pasco County 28,641,530

Pinellas County 63,207,524Santa Rosa County 101,798,005

Sarasota County 14,129,084

St. Johns County 1,748,256

St. Lucie County 27,310,443

Taylor County 1,050,479

Wakulla County 8,072,996

Walton County 26,007,241

TOTAL $1,123,282,358

Source: FEMA


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State/Local Government Actions

Te state should require local coastal governments to consider sea-level rise when amending their comprehensiveplans or land use, open space, wetland protection, public inrastructure siting and maintenance, and other relevantactivities. Tis should include expanding relevant local comprehensive planning horizons beyond the current 5-10year period.

Te state should assess, restrict, and/or reduce state unding, tax breaks, and other incentives or private developmen

in coastal areas at high risk rom erosion and storm surges.Te state should undertake a comprehensive reevaluation o the CCCL program to ensure that it is accomplishingits intended goals o protection o lie, property, and the beach/dune system. Te reevaluation should consider,among other things: (1) the adequacy o existing coastal setbacks and post-storm redevelopment policies in light oprojected sea-level rise scenarios, and (2) the need or expediting reestablishment o the CCCL when, due to coastaerosion and storm surges, the line no longer provides adequate regulatory control over shoreline development.

CPIC coverage should be consistent with the goals o ederal and state policies aimed at protecting coastalresources. CPIC coverage should be evaluated to determine i changes are warranted and whether coverage or newdevelopment should be restricted in CBRA zones and in areas seaward o the CCCL when DEP has determinedthe line is no longer eective and needs to be reset landward.

Te Strategic Beach Management Plan should incorporate a range o sea-level rise scenarios over at least a 50 yeartime horizon.

DEP, DCA, and the states Regional Planning Councils should jointly develop, assess, and recommend or local governments a suite o planning tools and climate change adaptation strategies to maximize opportunities toprotect the beach/dune system, coastal wetlands, and other coastal resources in an era o rising seas. Tese toolsshould include strategies to encourage the landward siting and relocation o structures and public acilities in areaadjacent to receding shorelines through acquisition, rolling easements, transer o development rights, strongersetbacks, and tax incentives.

DEP should be unded to support the design and implementation o inlet management plans or all o the statesmodifed inlets and undertake all reasonable eorts to maximize inlet sand bypassing.

DEP and other relevant agencies should develop state wetlands conservation and restoration plans that promotedesignation o wetland migration corridors or wetland migration as sea levels rise, thereby protecting the valuablebenefts they provide by buering coasts against storms and erosion, improving water quality, and supporting fshand wildlie.

DEP, Water Management Districts and local and regional planners should evaluate and prepare or relocationand/or protection o drinking water well felds and ground water recharge areas rom salt water intrusion.

Te Florida Department o Emergency Management (DEM) should incorporate sea-level rise and increasing stormsurge impacts into its eorts to remap potential hazard areas in coastal zones. Revised hazard areas should betterreect the added risks to communities associated with climate change and allow reevaluation o the suitability or

development in these areas.Te state Legislature should place a priority on coastal land acquisition through the Florida Forever program, aseparate dedicated unding source, and/or through other means. Greater incentives should be provided to locagovernments and private organizations to acquire and manage ecologically important coastal lands, including


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upland buers in vulnerable areas. Acquisition eorts should be strategically targeted in order to protect coastaresources, reduce insured risk, and reduce the impacts o climate change on both ecosystems and communities.

Te Florida Division o Community Planning (DCP) should explore using the Floridas Areas o Critical StateConcern (ACSC) Program as a way to provide special assistance in planning and redevelopment or areas o thestate at high risk o change due to sea-level rise.

Te Florida Fish and Wildlie Conservation Commission (FWCC) should incorporate sea-level rise into the coastahabitat restoration and protection strategies o the Florida Wildlie Legacy Initiative.

Federal/Regional Government Actions

Congress should amend the Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA) to require relevant state agencies to considersea-level rise in coastal management plans in order to qualiy or ederal unding assistance; prohibit ederasubsidization o inrastructure development and coastal armoring in areas subject to sea-level rise; and encouragepublic and private land acquisition o coastal habitats and upland buers.

Congress should establish policies to restrict ederal ood insurance (via NFIP) or new construction andrebuilding in high hazard coastal areas. Congress should also provide increased unding and technical support orhazard mitigation by states, communities, and building owners through oodplain management; establishment ogreenways, open space, and building setbacks; and use o voluntary buyouts and relocations o high risk propertieshigher building elevations, ood proofng, and other techniques. Congress should oppose eorts to expand ederalsubsidies or wind insurance and natural catastrophe insurance in coastal high hazard areas subject to stormsurges, sea-level rise, and eroding shorelines.

Congress should replace economic incentives or private development in high risk coastal areas with incentives torelocate and build in other areas and invest in coastal land conservation, such as by allowing tax exempt fnancingor acquisition o properties in the hazard areas.

Te Army Corps o Engineers should incorporate sea-level rise projections and other climate change impacts intothe CERP to ensure that important ecological unctions o the system will endure over the long-term.

Congress should amend the Interstate Land Sales Act to require disclosure o possible consequences o buying orbuilding in coastal hazard areas. Congress should also stimulate ull disclosure by removing the private oeringexemption in Section 4(2) o the Securities Act o 1933 or proposed private investment and development in unitso the Coastal Barrier Resources System and in V Zones (the most hazardous ood area) identifed by NFIP.

Congress should resist eorts to exempt areas or roll back protections or coastal barriers that are included inCBRA. Coastal barriers designated under the act are ineligible or direct or indirect ederal fnancial assistance

that might support development.


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Confront ing the Impa cts of Ex treme Weather Event s

Global warming is disrupting the planets climate system, causing widespread changes in regional temperaturesprecipitation, and wind patterns (IPCC 2007a). In particular, these changes are maniesting themselves as anincrease in the requency and intensity o extreme weather events like heat waves, droughts, oods, and severestorms. According to the IPCC, since 1950, the number o heat waves has increased around the world, as has theextent o regions afected by droughts due to warmer conditions and increased evaporation (IPCC 2007a). Global

warming is also contributing to an increase in the requency and number o very heavy precipitation events andooding in many areas, a trend that is attributed to higher levels o moisture in the atmosphere (Difenbaugh2005; Groisman, 2004; renberth 2003).

Climate models project a continued increase in average regional air temperatures in Florida in the coming decades,including more requent and severe heat waves, which can exacerbate drought conditions (IPCC 2007a). Currentmodels are less certain in identiying how global warming will afect changes in average precipitation patterns ona local and regional level. For example, two o the more prominent climate models the Hadley Centre Modeland the Canadian Climate Centre Model difer in their projections or overall precipitation changes in FloridaTe Hadley model projects a decrease in average annual rainall amounts or the state, while the Canadian modeprojects an increase in rainall, especially in South Florida (willey, et al., 2001). Both models do agree, however,

that Florida will see greater precipitation extremes, including more intense rainall events and more droughts(willey, et al., 2001).

A Storm Coming Over Miami, iStockPhoto


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Several studies also have ound a correlation between warmer average ocean temperatures associated with globawarming and an increase in the intensity o tropical storms and hurricanes (renberth, 2007; Webster, et al., 2005Emanuel, 2005). Based on this evidence, a number o scientists believe that the trend toward more-intense stormswill continue in the coming decades as our oceans warm urther (renberth, 2007; Oouchi, et al., 2006; Knutsonand uleya, 2004; Walsh, Nguyen, and McGregor, 2004). However, there are many actors that contribute to boththe requency and intensity o hurricanes, and some uncertainty remains about how these storms will be afectedby global warming in the uture (Pielke, et al., 2005). Regardless o whether or not global warming will have adirect impact on hurricane requency and intensity, there is little question that these storms will become more

destructive in the uture due to a combination o increased coastal development as well as higher storm surgesexacerbated by sea-level rise (Anthes, et al., 2006). 2

Over the last decade, extreme weather has been prevalent in Florida, which ofers a compelling example o whatthe state will need to prepare or in the decades to come. Te hurricane seasons o 2004 and 2005 were enormouslydestructive and costly to the state, revealing the potential toll o more-intense storms due to global warmingBeyond the unathomable human and ecological toll, insured losses in Florida over the period totaled more than$35 billion (Florida O ce o Insurance Regulation, 2006).

A general trend toward heavier rainall events (whether or not associated with tropical storms) will likely contribute

to a decline in coastal water quality due to enhanced stormwater runof. Tis is a problem that has already beenexacerbated by the destruction o wetlands, orests, and other natural bufers (which help store water and trappollutants and sediments) and expansion o impervious suraces associated with urban development and roadsOne o the potential impacts o additional runof is an increase in the duration and/or extent o coastal hypoxiaevents caused by eutrophication (excess nitrogen and other nutrients in coastal waters rom sources such asagricultural ertilizers, sewage discharges, and septic tanks) (Justic, Rabalais, and urner, 2003). Tis nutrientloading leads to excessive algae growth that contributes to a depletion o oxygen in afected waters, a conditioncalled hypoxia. Similarly, anoxia is a condition in which all oxygen is depleted, which can lead to dead zones areas in which most marine organisms cannot survive (Joyce, 2000).

In addition, several record-breaking droughts have plagued Florida and other parts o the Southeast in recent

years (including events in 2001-2002 and again in 2006-2007). Tese droughts have placed considerable strainon reshwater resources throughout the region. I global warming contributes to worsening drought conditionsas projected, it will become increasingly di cult to provide enough water resources to meet the needs o shwildlie, and a growing human population without a longer-term, more coordinated approach to water resourcemanagement.

While neither hypoxia nor anoxia are new phenomena, their prevalence has become much more widespread inrecent decades, which scientists attribute in part to global warming (Boesch, 2007; Dybas, 2005; Kennedy, et al.,2002). Tis is because heavier precipitation ushes greater amounts o nutrients and other pollutants into coastawaters. In addition, heavy runof decreases water mixing in estuaries as less dense resher water rides over the topo the denser saltier water, inhibiting the mixing o water and the replenishment o oxygen in deep waters. Reducedwater quality associated with excess stormwater runof has already plagued Floridas coastal waters, contributingto declines in seagrass coverage, mortality o ree-building corals, and other serious environmental problems(omasko, et al., 2005; Ginsburg, Gischler, and Kiene, 2001).

2 If global warming does contribute to more intense hurricanes, they will likely bring more rainfall and contribute to flooding and stormwater runoff(Knutson and Tuleya, 2004). This underscores the importance of preparing for greater extremes in flood and stormwater management highlighted in this section.

Recommendations to prepare for the consequences of higher storm surges are addressed in the section on sea-level rise.


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Recommended Actions to Deal with Extreme Weather Events

As Florida aces greater extremes in precipitation events, including heavier rainall and the possibility o more-intense coastal storms, improving stormwater management will be critical to meeting important goals to reduceeutrophication and other pollution problems in Floridas coastal waters as well as reduce the risks rom localizedooding. For both new developments and redevelopment projects, or example, greater emphasis should be placedon preventive measures employed through land-use planning, such as placing limits on areas o impervious

suraces, and requiring restoration and protection o natural riparian bufers. Such Low Impact Development(LID, sometimes also reerred to as green inrastructure) measures are coming into widespread use in states andmunicipalities around the country, and are encouraged by U.S. EPA as a cost-efective stormwater managementapproach (U.S. EPA, 2007).

LID generally reers to systems and practices that use or mimic natural processes to inltrate, evapotranspirate(the return o water to the atmosphere either through evaporation or by plants), or reuse stormwater or runofon the site where it is generated, rather than traditional hardscape collection, conveyance, and storage structures.LID approaches currently in use include greenroos, trees and tree boxes, rain gardens, vegetated swales,pocket wetlands, inltration planters, porous and permeable pavements, vegetated median strips, reorestation/revegetation, and protection and enhancement o riparian bufers and oodplains. Tese methods are most efective

when supplemented with other decentralized storage and inltration approaches, such as the use o permeablepavement, and rain barrels and cisterns to capture and re-use rainall or watering plants or ushing toilets.

Even where engineering solutions to stormwater management are warranted, such as retrotting culverts, retentionponds, and storm drains, it will be prudent to establish runof-reduction goals that account or greater extremesthan are reected in historic trends and consider expanding the capacity o these systems now rather than beingaced with having to re-invest in urther retrots in the coming decades. oday, Floridas stormwater managementstrategies largely rely on historical rainall trends as a guide or determining their likely efectiveness, which couldresult in the development o inrastructure and approaches that are inadequate to deal with the heavier rainallevents associated with global warming (Harper and Baker, 2007).

Florida must also work with other states in the region to better manage water resources during droughts. Techallenges o water resource management in the region have recently been brought to light by the ongoing battlebetween Florida, Alabama, and Georgia over water owing rom the Chattahoochee and Flint Rivers into theApalachicola River and, ultimately, Apalachicola Bay. Water diversions or urban consumption, ood control, andother activities upstream have signicantly reduced the amount o reshwater entering the bay, which has led to aconsiderable decline in coastal water quality. A decrease in available water resources due to global warming willexacerbate the situation.

On the whole, Florida still wastes considerable resh water resources given the lack o more rigorous conservationand reuse opportunities. Ocean outalls, deep well injection, and lack o advanced treatment and reuse o wastewater

and stormwater result in billions o gallons o resh water wasted daily in Florida. Among other things, Floridashould place greater emphasis on implementing measures to increase water-use e ciency among major userssuch as cities and arms, as well as encourage use o seasonal and long-term projections or riverows in watermanagement decisions. Tis will not only provide needed water or drinking and other human uses, but it willenable protection o minimum water levels and ows or ecosystems and wildlie.


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DEP should upgrade stormwater regulations, taking the likelihood o more requent heavy rainall events intoconsideration. Emphasis should be placed on natural buers and requiring adequate long-term capacity andinrastructure or stormwater and sewage (taking projected climate change into consideration) prior to issuingnew development permits. Policies should also ocus on implementing LID methods, both or new developmentsand retrofts in existing developed areas.

DEP should enhance protection and restoration o wetlands and riparian oodplains to help remove nutrients

and reduce eutrophication and hypoxia, both o which are likely to be made worse as a result o global warmingHomeowners should be encouraged to protect and restore riparian vegetation along key watersheds to increaseabsorption o stormwater.

DEP should evaluate/revise the Florida Water Plan (and regional water management plans) to explicitly addressclimate change. State and local water managers should: move away rom relying on historic trends to determineuture water availability; place signifcantly greater emphasis on reducing demand (increasing e ciency in waterdelivery and water use); und strategies to make better use o reclaimed water, including through decentralized LIDapproaches; and expand eorts to implement recommendations established under the Florida Water ConservationInitiative.

DEP should redouble eorts to reduce nutrient loading and set numeric criteria or nutrients. Tis should

include: requiring perormance-based treatment systems (new technology that signifcantly reduce nutrientsand other pollutants) in coastal and other sensitive areas or consider piping into nearby existing systems; reducingphosphorous and nitrogen in the Everglades by lowering otal Maximum Daily Loads (MDLs); building Storagereatment Areas (SA); and setting a nitrogen standard or CERP.

DEP Water Management Districts and local governments should work together to address wastewater treatmentupgrades and to identiy reuse opportunities throughout the state.

Local governments should review land use, zoning, building, and related codes to remove or amend provisions thamay inadvertently discourage or prevent the use o LID, and to a rmatively promote LID in new developmenand redevelopment projects.


Congress should require all ederal water resource-related agencies to incorporate modern climate and sea-leverise projections into their water resources planning procedures and programs.

o reduce eutrophication (and other pollution) associated with heavier rainall events and runo, U.S. EPA shouldrevise its stormwater management rules under the Clean Water Act to discourage development in or near coastaland stream riparian buers, wetlands, and other sensitive areas.

Te States o Florida, Georgia, and Alabama should actively engage in a collaborative eort to develop and

implement a long-term regional water management plan that incorporates climate change and takes a morecoordinated approach to water management, including water conservation and reuse, in order to meet the needso people and the fsh and wildlie they depend on or ood, jobs, and recreation.


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Confront ing the Impacts of Higher Ocean Temper atures

Average sea surace temperatures have increased over the latter hal o the 20th century, providing another importantindication o global warming (IPCC 2007a; AchutaRao, et al., 2007). On average, the temperature o the upper 300meters o the worlds oceans has risen about 0.56 degrees Fahrenheit since the 1950s, a trend that scientists havedetermined is a direct result o human activities (NOAA, 2000; Santer, et al., 2006). Te increase has been evengreater in the ropical Atlantic region, where the average sea surace temperature has risen 1 degree Fahrenheit

over the past three decades (Barnett, Pierce, and Schnur, 2001). I global warming pollution continues unabatedaverage ocean temperatures are projected to rise by an additional 2.7 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit beore the end othe century, with potentially devastating consequences or coastal and marine ecosystems (IPCC 2007a).

Te primary impacts o rising sea-surace temperatures in Florida include coral bleaching, exacerbation o marinediseases, and shis in the ranges and population abundances o sh and other marine species.

Coral Bleaching and Diseases

Te scientic community largely agrees that increased sea temperatures pose one o the greatest threats oextinction to coral species and coral rees (IPCC, 2007b). Bleaching occurs in stony, calcareous (calciying and

ree-building) corals, so corals and in some important calcareous macro algae species. Coral rees are the mostbiologically diverse ecosystems on earth and provide essential ood and habitat to more species than any otherecosystem (Roberts, 2003). In addition, coral rees provide ood, tourism, and recreational opportunities romboating, shing, and diving.

Coral bleaching is a direct consequence o unusually warm water (Jokiel, 2004). When temperatures exceed thethresholds that they have evolved to tolerate, coral polyps, which are animals, expel their zooxanthellae. Te latter areunicellular yellow-brown (dinoagellate) algae which live symbiotically in the inner lining, or gastrodermis, o ree-building corals. Zooxanthellae give corals their colorul pigment; hence bleaching corals turn pale. Zooxanthellaealso provide or their hosts by removing nutrients that attract harmul algae, by providing corals with ood in the

Black Band Disease, Florida Keys, NOAA


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orm o photosynthetic products (sugars), and by providing oxygen. In turn, corals provide protection and accessto light or the zooxanthellae. In general, bleaching is a highly traumatic event or most coral species. Tey can dieo malnutrition or sufocate. Oen, the bleaching event itsel is not atal but weakens the colonys immune systemenough or deadly inections to invade coral tissues (Harvell, 2007).

Te number o massive bleaching events around the world has increased considerably since the 1980s, correspondingwith a trend o increasingly warmer ocean temperatures combined with pollution and other human-imposedstressors (Wilkinson, 2004). Troughout the Florida Keys and the Caribbean, coral bleaching has contributed

to a signicant decline in stony coral diversity and cover (Causey, et al., 2005). In 2005, thermal stress to theregions corals due to high sea surace temperatures reached a level greater than the previous 20 years combinedcontributing to a mass coral bleaching event that afected as much as 90 percent o coral cover in parts o the region(Donner, Knutson, and Oppenheimer, 2006). As temperatures continue to rise, coral bleaching events are expectedto occur much more requently within the next ew decades (West and Salm, 2003). For corals to survive in thisera o rapid, human-induced global warming, we must increase the resiliency o coral colonies by reducing otherstressors to the greatest possible extent (Westmacott, et al., 2000).

Scientists also agree that global warming will extend disease seasons. Warmer ocean temperatures are asignicant actor in the growing incidence, range, and severity o a number o coral diseases, including black band

disease, white band disease, white plague and white pox (Harvell, et al., 1999). While pathogens that cause thesediseases occur naturally in coral tissues, studies have ound that heat triggers a shi rom benecial bacteria to anovergrowth o opportunistic microbes. For example, recent research on elkhorn (Acropora palmata) corals oundthat surace mucus on healthy corals inhibited growth o potentially invasive microbes - including pathogens thacause white band disease - by up to 10-old (Ritchie, 2006). Te study ound that this antibiotic activity was notoccurring during a summer bleaching event. Mortality events rom white band disease and several other diseaseshave been signicant problems throughout Florida and the Caribbean. In 2006, two species o coral elkhornand staghorn ( Acropora cervicornis) were listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act given theirrecent, widespread decline (Aylesworth and Bruno, 2008). Eleveated sea level, surace temperatures, hurricanesand diseaseall linked to global warmingare considered major threats to these corals. Critical habitat or thesecorals was proposed in February 2008.

Shifts in Species Ranges and Population Abundances

For most marine species, average ocean temperature on a broad scale is a major actor in determining viable habitatand preerred temperature ranges can vary considerably among diferent species (Cheung, Lam, and Pauly, eds.,2008). In act, optimal temperatures are so important or many sh that commercial and recreational shermenwill oen reer to requently-updated sea surace temperature maps to determine where a particular species orgroup o species might be at a given time.

Changes in average ocean temperatures can afect actors such as metabolism, reproduction, and predator-prey

interactions, which in turn can alter species ranges and population abundances (Roessig, et al., 2004). Whilehighly-mobile species may be able to move to nd more avorable conditions, more sedentary species such ascorals and mollusks will be orced to bear the changes where they occur. In the northern Gul o Mexico, orexample, much o the popular shing occurs in summer months rom May to October, when many species thatpreer warmer waters migrate north. Higher average ocean temperatures due to global warming may expandopportunities or shing or some species such as snook and tarpon, assuming other essential habitat actors suchas salinity levels and ood sources are also avorable (Sargeant, 2006). On the other hand, there is considerableconcern that warmer waters would acilitate expansion o many opportunistic non-native plant and animal specieswhose current range may be limited primarily by temperatures (Scavia, et al., 2001). Many non-native species such


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as the Indo-Pacic lionsh thrive in warmer conditions and already are out-competing native species in Floridascoastal areas (Markham, 2001).

For other species that are already at the upper end o their preerred temperature range, however, warmer averagewater temperatures may be detrimental, particularly in the northern Gul o Mexico, where opportunities or thosespecies to retreat arther north in search o cooler waters is physically limited by the coastline. A study o potentiaefects o higher water temperatures in Apalachicola Bay due to global warming suggests that several importantshery species, including crabs, shrimp, oysters, and ounder, might not be able to survive in the estuary beore

the end o this century because water temperatures would exceed their thermal tolerance or an extended period otime (Livingston, 1989). Larval and juvenile blue crabs, which have a relatively low tolerance or high temperaturescould see close to 100 percent mortality in the estuary, while spotted seatrout, oyster larvae, pansh, and oundercould see 60 to 90 percent mortality.

Similarly, northern Florida is on the southern edge o the habitat range or striped bass, which cannot toleratehigh water temperatures (Coutant, 1990). Higher average temperatures in the region due to global warming mayeliminate both anadromous and landlocked striped bass rom the region altogether. Given the important roles alnative species play in their respective ecosystems, it is possible that major changes in species composition due toglobal warming will signicantly alter the nature o our coastal and marine systems.

Higher water temperatures can exacerbate hypoxia events, as well, because warm water holds less dissolved oxygenthan cooler water does. For each degree Fahrenheit in temperature increase, waters ability to dissolve oxygendecreases by about one percent (Najjar, et al., 2000). Higher water temperatures also accelerate the bacterial decayo organic matter present in the water, thereby consuming more oxygen and intensiying hypoxia. High watertemperatures and resulting loss o oxygen have been identied as a leading cause o sh kills among coastal states(Lowe, et al., 1991).

Recommended Actions to Reduce the Impacts of Higher Ocean

Temperatures

Lessening the impacts o higher ocean temperatures due to global warming will require strategies that increase theoverall resiliency o ecosystems. It is necessary to reduce the negative impacts o a broad range o human-inducedstressors on coastal and marine ecosystems in an efort to help them resist and/or recover rom disturbances suchas coral bleaching, disease outbreaks, or anoxia events (Grimsditch and Salm, 2005). Placing signicantly greateremphasis on habitat protection and ecosystem-based management (EBM) approaches to managing sheries, coralrees, and other coastal resources will set an important oundation on which to cope with the multitude o stressorsafecting them.

In particular, sh and wildlie managers and other relevant decision makers should ocus on protecting the diversity

o species and habitat types that characterize the state and regions ecological systems (Worm, 2006), as well asrestoring or preserving habitat connectivity (Nystrm and Folke, 2001). For example, restoring or maintaining thepresence o algae-grazing species o sh and invertebrates can help limit the overgrowth o harmul, opportunisticalgae on rees damaged by coral bleaching (Nystrm, Folke, and Moberg, 2000). In addition, improvingconnectivity both within and between coral rees can acilitate distribution o larvae and help maintain geneticdiversity among corals (Nystrm and Folke, 2001). Tese actors should be an important consideration in theestablishment and management o marine protected areas (MPAs), no-take reserves, and other coastal and marineconservation strategies. Furthermore, it will be important or researchers to continue to closely monitor coastalwater temperatures and develop strategic and nimble management responses to deal with extreme events such asmass coral bleaching and disease outbreaks (Marshall and Shuttenberg, 2006).


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DEP should amend the Southeast Florida Coral Ree Initiative Local Action Strategy to consider the added stresson coral rees due to global warming and develop an eective, coordinated management strategy to increase theprotection o the regions coral ree ecosystem.

DEP should evaluate and monitor the eectiveness o the states collective coastal and aquatic managed area andcoastal zone management programs in supporting biological diversity among fsh and wildlie species and should

develop strategies to strengthen these programs.DEP should discontinue the process o permitting the use o ocean outalls that discharge polluted wastewater intocoastal areas containing coral rees and require advanced wastewater treatment including nutrient removal andreuse o resh water supplies.

FWCC should promote the rebuilding o depleted coastal and ocean fsh populations since depleted populationswill have a harder time dealing with additional stresses posed by climate change and warming waters.

FWCC and other relevant agencies should expand research and monitoring o coral ree ecosystems, includingongoing assessments o actors such as water temperatures and coral bleaching, incidence and range o coraldiseases, damage and recovery rom storms, and assessment o water quality, including the calcium carbonatesaturation state and its eects on rees over time.


Congress should enact climate adaptation legislation that would provide unding as well as require ederal andstate agencies to protect and strengthen the health o coastal and ocean ecosystems [see Box 2 on page 30].

Congress should call or and support a National Academy o Sciences study, looking at the implications o climate

Preparing for a Sea Change: A Strategy for Florida Coast

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