Prepared by Robert B. Case, PE Presented to VTA Annual Meeting May 10, 2005 Cover Slide Elderly Transportation in 2030 Improving Mobility A Step in the.

Prepared by Robert B. Case, PE

Presented to

VTA Annual Meeting

May 10, 2005

Cover Slide Elderly Transportation in 2030

Improving Mobility

A Step in the Development of the Hampton Roads 2030 Regional Transportation Plan

2

Purpose of the Elderly/Handicapped Study

• To determine ways to improve the mobility of the elderly and handicapped population in the year 2030.– Is there a problem in elderly transportation?– If so, what can be done?

3

Age 65+, Hampton Roads

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,00019

70

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

per

son

s

“The impact of the baby boom will start to be felt

beginning in 2010, as the first wave of baby boomers turns 65.”

Source of quote: “San Francisco Bay Area Older Adults Transportation Study”, Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Dec. 2002

4

Expected Increase in Elderly

• In 2000, 10% of Hampton Roads’ population was 65 and older.

• In 2030, 19% of Hampton Roads’ population will be 65 and older, resembling Tampa today demographically, the second most elderly metro area in the nation (2000).

Source of HR data: Census and HRPDC 2030 forecast.

Source of national data: “Seniors in Suburbia”, William Frey, Milken Institute, Nov. 2001

5

Elderly (65+) Driver Status, US, NHTS, 2001

Drivers79%

Non-drivers21%

The majority of elderly persons are drivers.

6

Trips per Day, 65+, Drivers, NHTS, National Sample, 2001

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

Age

Trip

s/d

ay

The mobility of elderly drivers stays fairly high throughout the later years. The trip-making of drivers in their 80’s

is not greatly less than that of drivers in their late 60’s.

7

Driver Status, NHTS, 2001

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

6-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75 76-79 80-84 85+

Age

No, not a driver

Yes, a driver But, unfortunately, driver status drops significantly

above age 70.

8

Trips per Day, 65+, NHTS, National Sample, 2001

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

Age

Trav

el D

ay T

rip

s

drivers

non-drivers

Non-drivers make half as many trips as drivers.

9

Trips per Day, 65+, NHTS, National Sample, 2001

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

Age

Trip

s/d

ay

drivers

all

Therefore, the mobility of the elderly as a group

drops significantly and undesirably with age.

10

Trips per Day, 65+, NHTS, National Sample, 2001

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

Age

Trav

el D

ay T

rip

s

drivers

non-drivers

The greatest change in trip-making occurs when we stop driving.

The greatest change in trip-making does not occur as we age...

11

Driver Status, Elderly 65+, US

79%82%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Year 2000 Year 2030

% D

river

s

Although the percentage of

elderly persons who drive is expected to slightly increase…

12

Elderly in Hampton Roads, 65+

162,238

391,651

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Year 2000 Year 2030

…because the total number of elderly will more than double...

13

Non-drivers 65+, Hampton Roads

34,216

70,497

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Year 2000 Year 2030

…the number of elderly non-drivers will double by 2030,

totaling 70,000 persons.

14

Part 1A, Summary of Findings

• Is there a problem? – Do the elderly desire to travel more?

• Yes- the elderly are more likely to be non-drivers, and non-drivers travel half as much as drivers.

– How many of them will not be driving?• In 2030 in Hampton Roads there will be 70,000 elderly

non-drivers, twice as many as today.

15

Part 1B- Elderly Transportation in 2030-Improving Elderly Mobility

• What can be done to increase the mobility of elderly non-drivers?

16

National Experts

• Sandra Rosenbloom, Ph. D.– Director, Drachman Institute and Professor of Planning,

University of Arizona– Four Strategies should be considered for elderly mobility:

1. “promoting the centralization of a metropolitan area”2. “target public transit services…directly for the elderly”3. “support alternative transportation options, for example by

encouraging ride-sharing, introducing voucher programs, and strengthening the role of for-profit transportation providers”

4. promote safety by “improving the highway and street infrastructure” especially for pedestrians

Source: “Regional Report”, Sacramento Area Council of Governments, Nov. 2003, p. 5

17

Research Methodology

• Quantification of improvements to elderly non-driver mobility was not found in existing research.

• Therefore, original research was conducted for this HRPDC study using data from the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS).– The 2001 NHTS covered 66,000 households

across the U.S., including 4,230 non-drivers age 65+.

18

Statistically Significant in Elderly Non-Driver Mobility

1. Diary Completion2. Medical Condition that Limits Travel3. Travel Issues Considered a Problem4. Years Past Age 755. Surveying Firm6. Residential Density7. Workers in Household (other than self)8. Before/After Sept. 11, 20019. Education Level10. One Adult with Child/children in Household11. Day of the Week12. Gender

Using regression techniques, 12 variables were found to be significantly related to the trip-making of the 4,000+ elderly non-drivers surveyed:

19

Residential Density

• Of these 12 variables, the one over which local government has some control is “Residential Density”.– Therefore, after accounting for the other 11

variables, the impact of “residential density” was examined.

20

Impact of Residential Density on Tripmaking of Elderly Non-drivers, by mode

-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 up to1000

1000 upto 2000

2000 upto 3000

3000 upto 4000

4000 upto 5000

5000 upto 6000

6000 upto 8000

8000 upto 12000

12000 upto 16000

16000 upto 25000

25,000+

hthresdn1 (housing units / sqmi, tract)

resi

du

al, t

rip

mak

ing

var

iab

le (

0 tr

ips

= 0

; 1+

tri

ps

= 1

)

personal vehicle

bus-walk combo

walk

bus

densities of Hampton Roads tracts

As density increases, walking and bus-riding increases, reducing the need to ask for a ride…

21

Impact of Residential Density on Tripmaking of Elderly Non-drivers

-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 up to1000

1000 up to2000

2000 up to3000

3000 up to4000

4000 up to5000

5000 up to6000

6000 up to8000

8000 up to12000

12000 up to16000

16000 up to25000

25,000+

hthresdn1 (housing units / sqmi, tract)

resi

du

al, t

rip

mak

ing

var

iab

le (

0 tr

ips

= 0

; 1+

tri

ps

= 1

)

tripmaking,all modes

densities of Hampton Roads tracts

…and thereby increasing mobility.

22

Residential Density and Trip-making

• Probable reasons for higher walk/transit trips in dense areas:– Sidewalks are more likely to be available

– Destinations tend to be closer– Public transit is more likely to be available and more

likely to be attractive (e.g. higher frequency of arrivals)

23

Residential Density and Trip-making

• Existing research corroborates this density impact – “Seniors make a higher percentage of their trips by

walking than do other people…”– “One in three older non-drivers walks on a given day in

denser areas, as compared to 1 in 14 in more spread-out areas.”

– “More than half of older non-drivers use public transportation occasionally in denser areas, as compared to 1 in 20 in more spread-out areas;”

Source of first quote: “San Francisco Bay Area Older Adults Transportation Study”, Metro. Transp. Comm., Dec. 2002, p. 2-11

Source of second and third quotes: Aging Americans: Stranded Without Options, Linda Bailey, Surface Transportation Policy Project, April 2004, p. 2

24

At What Densities do These Effects Appear?

• For the elderly non-driver– bus-riding increases above

4,000 housing units per sqmi.

– walking increases above 6,000 housing units per sqmi.

– total mobility greatly increases above 8,000 housing units per sqmi.

Impact of Residential Density on Tripmaking of Elderly Non-drivers, by mode

-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 up to1000

1000 upto 2000

2000 upto 3000

3000 upto 4000

4000 upto 5000

5000 upto 6000

6000 upto 8000

8000 upto 12000

12000 upto 16000

16000 upto 25000

25,000+

hthresdn1 (housing units / sqmi, tract)

resi

du

al, t

rip

mak

ing

var

iab

le (

0 tr

ips

= 0

; 1+

tri

ps

= 1

)

personal vehicle

bus-walk combo

other

walk

bus

Impact of Residential Density on Tripmaking of Elderly Non-drivers

-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 up to1000

1000 up to2000

2000 up to3000

3000 up to4000

4000 up to5000

5000 up to6000

6000 up to8000

8000 up to12000

12000 up to16000

16000 up to25000

25,000+

hthresdn1 (housing units / sqmi, tract)

resi

du

al, t

rip

mak

ing

var

iab

le (

0 tr

ips

= 0

; 1+

tri

ps

= 1

)

25

Some existing areas in Hampton Roads have densities conducive to walking and bus-riding for elderly non-drivers.

26

Arlington and Alexandria in Northern Virginia have many areas with densities conducive to walking and bus-riding for elderly non-drivers.

27

Tripmaking of Elderly Non-Drivers

49%

58%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

average 8k-12k h.u. density

density of census tract, units/sqmi

mak

e tr

ips

on

giv

en d

ay

Density and Increased Mobility

At 8k units/sqmi, the mobility of elderly non-drivers increases by approximately one fifth.

28

1B: What can be done to increase mobility?

• Individuals can move to denser areas • For example, the downtown areas of Norfolk, Newport News,

Portsmouth, and Hampton are dense and well-served by transit.

• Local government can align infrastructure and services with land use– Local government can improve pedestrian facilities

(sidewalks, signal timing) and public transportation (frequency, speed, and options)

• focusing on dense areas where walking and transit work best.

– Local government can ensure that adequate portions of their localities are zoned for higher densities

• particularly areas conducive to walking and having existing or planned high levels of transit service.

29

Part 1C- Elderly Transportation in 2030-Adjusting Transit to Accommodate the Elderly

• Is there a need for transit service adjustment?• How can transit service be adjusted to accommodate

the elderly?

30

Non-Drivers, Hampton Roads

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2000 2030

non-

driv

ers

65+

55-64

35-54

20-34

16-19

Over the next three decades,

all of the increase in non-drivers

(a critical market for transit)

will be persons 65+.

31

Public Transit & Elderly- Current Situation

• The challenge:– “The elderly are less likely to be regular transit

users, even when transit is accessible…and when land use patterns are more favorable to transit.”

– “…transit use by older people fell by almost 50 percent between 1995 and 2001, when only 1.3 percent of all trips were made by transit.”

Source, first quote: Transportation in an Aging Society, TRB, 2004, p. 204

Source, second quote: “The Mobility Needs of Older Americans: Implications for Transportation Reauthorization”, Sandra Rosenbloom, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, July 2003, p. 4

32

The Need for Adjusting Transit

• The need exists for adjusting transit service to serve the elderly.– A large “market” for transit use will exist in the

elderly population in the future.– That market has been difficult to reach in the

past.

• How can transit better serve the elderly?

Source: “San Francisco Bay Area Older Adults Transportation Study”, Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Dec. 2002

33

Bus Trips, NHTS, 2001

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0:00

1:00

2:00

3:00

4:00

5:00

6:00

7:00

8:00

9:00

10:0

0

11:0

0

12:0

0

13:0

0

14:0

0

15:0

0

16:0

0

17:0

0

18:0

0

19:0

0

20:0

0

21:0

0

22:0

0

23:0

0

Trip Start Time, hour (strthr)

65+, Non-Drivers

All Bus Riders

Unlike the average bus-rider, whose travel peaks in the morning and

afternoon, these elderly persons travel by bus mostly in the middle of the day.

34

Community Buses

• “Some communities have been very successful with service routes and community buses—small accessible and scheduled buses in which the driver provides substantial assistance…. Community buses are also attractive because they are specifically routed to serve the origins and destinations of most interest to older people.” – “Many systems have found that those who ride community buses are

relatively healthy older people who are new to public transit or who used it only infrequently prior to the new services.”

Source: “The Mobility Needs of Older Americans: Implications for Transportation Reauthorization”, Sandra Rosenbloom, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, July 2003, p. 14

35

Summary of Part 1C- Adjusting Transit

• Adjusting Public Transit to Serve Elderly– Higher frequency in middle of day– Drivers providing assistance– Routes designed to serve origins and destinations

of elderly– Vehicles designed for the elderly– Marketing to the elderly

36

Window of Opportunity

• “The impact of the baby boom will start to be felt beginning in 2010, as the first wave of baby boomers turns 65.”

Source: “San Francisco Bay Area Older Adults Transportation Study”, Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Dec. 2002

37

Summary of Findings to Date

• Is there a problem? – Yes- the elderly are more likely to be non-drivers, and non-

drivers travel half as much as drivers.• What can be done to increase the mobility of elderly non-drivers?

– Local governments can improve pedestrian facilities and transit service,

• focusing on dense areas.

– Local governments can ensure that adequate portions of their localities are zoned for higher densities,

• particularly areas conducive to walking and having existing or planned high levels of transit service.

– Local governments can adjust transit service to accommodate the elderly.

• time of day, drivers, route design, vehicle design, marketing

38

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