PRELIMINERARY FACT FINDING MISSION: THE UNITED NATIONS ... · VENEZUELA – Mission Report September 2009 5 collaboration. Preliminary Finding 5: There is a lack of systematization

September 2009 VENEZUELA – Mission Report

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PREPARED BY HUMANITARIAN FUTURES PROGRAMMEPREPARED BY HUMANITARIAN FUTURES PROGRAMMEPREPARED BY HUMANITARIAN FUTURES PROGRAMME

KING’S COLLEGE LONDONKING’S COLLEGE LONDONKING’S COLLEGE LONDON

DRAFT REPORT FOR CIRCULATIONDRAFT REPORT FOR CIRCULATIONDRAFT REPORT FOR CIRCULATION––– SEPTEMBER 2009SEPTEMBER 2009SEPTEMBER 2009


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Overview

The complexities, interrelationships, and dimensions of hu‐

manitarian threats over the next two decades will require an

approach for anticipating and responding to crises that is sig‐

nificantly different from that of the present. The greater the

agility and the more attention given to systematically thinking

along the lines of “what if” and to innovation and to collabo‐

ration, the more readily will organizations be able to antici‐

pate and adapt to what may occur.

The overarching objective of the Humanitarian Futures Pro‐

gramme (HFP) is to assist organizations to prepare for an in‐

creasingly complex humanitarian future. Towards this end,

the HFP works with a wide range of governmental, inter‐

governmental and non‐governmental organizations to en‐

hance their capacities to anticipate and address the main driv‐

ers of vulnerability, on the one hand, and opportunities to

offset such vulnerabilities, on the other.

The HFP Mission was undertaken at the request of the UN

Resident Coordinator with the aim of identifying opportuni‐

ties for how the UN Country Team (UNCT) can strengthen its

own capacity and that of Venezuela to anticipate and respond

to future humanitarian threats and crisis drivers. The mission

was conducted by a two person HFP team (Joanne Burke,

Philipp Shonrock) during the period of 27 July through 10 Au‐

gust 2009, visiting Caracas and the State of Merida. The mis‐

sion included a series of group meetings, individual key infor‐

mant interviews and the completion of the HFP question‐

naire: Organizational Self‐Assessment Tools (OSAT).

A total of 41 people were interviewed during the mission of

whom 22 were UN staff. Additionally, two focus groups were

conducted. External participants included representatives

from the Government, donors, academia and the scientific

and technical community. Given that the private sector and

non‐governmental organizations do not have active humani‐

tarian roles in Venezuela, they were not targeted to partici‐

pate in the discussions.

Preliminary Findings and Recommenda‐

tions

The HFP’s work with the UNCT in Venezuela was guided by a

similar premise to other UNCTs assessed by the HFP. This

premise is based on the belief that a UN country system of

the future will need to have the capacity to understand and to

address issues that relate to a confluence of shocks and is‐

sues, short and long‐term. Additionally, in contexts that are as

uncertain and politically challenging as Venezuela, the UN will

need to be able to adjust its approach to programming and

adapt its frameworks for change accordingly, in order for it to

remain relevant and to demonstrate added‐value.

Due to the rapidly changing and complex nature of the na‐

tional context and the preliminary nature and short time

frame of the mission, the HFP team is cautious about drawing

any definitive conclusions or making a set of “prescriptive”

recommendations on the way forward.

That said, overall, the HFP team believes that the UN country

team in Venezuela is well positioned to serve as a pioneer and

a role model within the region and the broader UN system

for:

• How the UN can effectively support governments with

high capacity to address both short‐term shocks and

long‐term threats in a systematic, coherent and for‐

ward looking manner,

• How the strengthening of futures capacities can en‐

hance the UN’s own added‐value in middle‐income

countries with complex humanitarian contexts,

• How to develop creative working models and relation‐

ships within a very complex and polarized political en‐

vironment.

This report consists of eight preliminary findings and ten sce‐

narios for strengthening futures capacities. They are formu‐

lated around the following four HFP capacities:

• Long‐term strategic thinking and planning

• Systematic information gathering and synthesis

• Adaptation and innovation

• Collaboration, networks and partnerships

Executive Summary


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Capacities for Long‐term Strategic Thinking and

Planning

Preliminary Finding 1: In 2008, the United Nations Develop‐

ment Assistance Framework (UNDAF) was signed by the Gov‐

ernment for the period 2009‐2013. Venezuela has not re‐

ported on its progress and achievements of the Millennium

Development Goals (MDGs) in the last four years, nor has it

been forthcoming in providing any matching funds for the

UNDAF’s implementation. There is a concern that the neces‐

sary ownership for the UNDAF’s implementation is lacking on

the part of the Government. The general nature of the UN‐

DAF per se does not provide for a clearly articulated vision for

change that can be measured against systematically tested

crisis drivers. Nor is there a common set of principles for the

UNDAF’s implementation; one that guides the work of all the

UN organizations against which targets, outcomes and impact

could be measured and resources allocated. The UN needs to

have a clear message (or set of messages) that “brand” the

UN’s role and work in Venezuela.

Preliminary Finding 2: The top six crisis drivers identified in

the OSAT Questionnaire included: increasing numbers of ur‐

ban poor, climate induced disasters, water access, collapse of

state structures, declining food availability, and resource scar‐

city driven by conflict. The potential for interstate conflict

was also cited. Given that up to 80% of Venezuela’s popula‐

tion resides in urban contexts and that up to 75% of its food is

imported, crisis risks associated with these drivers, along with

climate change, need to be very well mainstreamed into the

UNDFAF’s implementation.

Preliminary Finding 3: Current programming and funding

cycles do not allow for systematically thinking about and plan‐

ning for the future. There is a high degree of speculation

about “what might happen” in the future. However, planning

processes do not include regular monitoring of future crisis

drivers as the basis for forecasting or for developing plans to

specifically mitigate impact. Responding to the immediate is,

no doubt, important. But, working in a complex environment

also means that the UN’s work needs to be guided by plan‐

ning models and frameworks for change that are sensitive to

context and highly attuned to what the future may bring.

Scenario 1: Undertake a futures capacity audit of the UNCT’s

Programme

A scenario planning exercise could be a first step to

strengthen the UN’s capacity to understand and to anticipate

long‐term threats in a systematic way. The exercise would

“futures test” the UNDAF against one or more long‐term crisis

drivers. The exercise would serve as a type of audit to help

identify which UNDAF objectives and which UN programmes

can incorporate a futures perspective.

Scenario 2: Undertake a futures capacity audit of one UN

programme

A scenarios planning exercise could be organized with one or

more UN organizations or with the UNETE. The purpose of

the exercise would be to test a specific crisis driver for one of

the five UNDAF objectives. Such an exercise would need to be

undertaken in collaboration with key external partners, per‐

haps organized at the State or municipal level.

Scenario 3: Futures capacities training for the UNCT

The UN could develop a training module to build capacities on

future humanitarian threats. The training could be designed

around core competencies for long‐term strategic thinking,

information gathering and analysis, strategy and operational

alignment, and innovation and collaboration. The UN would

then have a package of tools that it could adapt and use in the

context of its own work.

Scenario 4: Redesign the UN Venezuela’s webpage

The website can help to “brand” the UN’s work in Venezuela.

It could be more user‐friendly in terms of language and navi‐

gation. The information could be better tailored to an exter‐

nal audience that needs to understand what the UN system

does in Venezuela and whom it partners with. The webpage

could include a futures section that speaks directly to the

UN’s work and partnership with the Government to address

long‐term threats and crisis.

Capacities for Systematic Information Gathering

and Analysis

Preliminary Finding 4: The current context in Venezuela is

not considered to be conducive to systematic and transparent

information gathering, exchange and dissemination. The gen‐

eral feeling was that the UN’s own internal capacity for crisis

trend monitoring, analysis and forecasting is weak. Having

good evidence of risk and threats is essential in order to an‐

ticipate and plan for long‐term crisis drivers that could have

negative humanitarian consequences. The UN’s work with

the National Institute of Statistics serves as a good example

both of the UN’s added‐value in the area of information and

knowledge management and as a good model for internal UN


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collaboration.

Preliminary Finding 5: There is a lack of systematization of

humanitarian experience, including the experience of the UN.

If another event were to occur in Venezuela, some of the

same internal UN coordination problems that occurred in Var‐

gas in 1999 would be likely to resurface. Currently, Venezuela

does not count with any central information platform whose

function is to collect, systematize and make accessible the

rich array of research, good practice and information re‐

sources that are available in the country on humanitarian, risk

and crisis threats. Nor is research on future crisis drivers un‐

dertaken. Venezuela has a high capacity to respond after a

hazardous event. The UN needs to rethink its disaster role to

be more oriented to prevention and risk reduction.

Scenario 5: Establish a platform for humanitarian informa‐

tion and for research on long‐term crisis drivers.

Through the UNETE the UN could establish an information

portal that serves as a central repository where information

on crisis and humanitarian risks can be organized, stored. ac‐

cessed and disseminated. The web platform could also serve

as a widely accessible portal to promote exchange and net‐

working on future crisis drivers. It could be structured in a

way that taps into information services within the broader UN

system and makes that available.

Scenario 6: Establish a futures early warning system

A “Futures Early Warning system” would strengthen the UN’s

internal capacity to anticipate long term future threats and

opportunities. The purpose of the system would be to iden‐

tify and analyze factors in the future that may impact on the

UN’s work and the communities it serves in a positive and

negative way. The system would use horizon scanning and

trend monitoring, linking with sectors outside the traditional

humanitarian and development contacts, including the mili‐

tary, sciences, the technological and corporate sectors.

Scenario 7: Establish a Futures Group

The UN could establish a Futures Group comprised of natural

and social scientists, principally from academic and research

centers and organizations. These individuals could inform the

UN’s work to monitor and integrate future crisis trends and

drivers into its ongoing work, and to identify emerging tech‐

nologies or new innovations to support strategic program‐

ming. Collaborating in this way with external actors would

also serve to capitalize on the UN’s convening role and its role

in promoting dialogue between scientists, policy makers and

programmers. Having a Futures Group could also serve to

bring in resources that few UN organizations would have the

capacity to develop internally.

Capacities for Adaptation, Innovation and

Collaboration

Preliminary Finding 6: Working successfully in an uncertain

and complex landscape requires flexibility and agility and the

ability to programme to this changing context. Many UN or‐

ganizations have good capacity to work adaptively and inno‐

vatively. However, in terms of how these capacities apply to

the UN’s humanitarian work, the findings are less clear.

Preliminary Finding 7: The UN organizations have invested in

working more inclusively and collaboratively and the Resident

Coordinator’s efforts in furtherance of this were acknowl‐

edged. That said, the different organizations work more inde‐

pendently relating mainly with their own counterparts. The

UNETE is the main inter‐agency mechanism with potential for

strengthening the UN’s collaboration for its humanitarian

work and futures capacity. Now, the UNETE lacks resources

and has limited external outreach or visibility.

Preliminary Finding 8: There are few opportunities for di‐

verse actors to engage in dialogue and to debate humanitar‐

ian and crisis risk issues. The UN is well regarded for having a

neutral, convening role. External actors want the UN do more

of this type of work. External stakeholders also want the UN

to help with making information available, providing tools for

crisis management, particularly for early warning and for use

at the community level. Information produced by the UN

would be considered to have a high degree of analytical inde‐

pendence.

Scenario 8: Create a capacity development initiative for ur‐

ban crisis issues

Through the UNDAF the UNCT can create a pilot capacity de‐

velopment initiative to support the Government to have a

more coherent approach for addressing urban crisis, disaster

risk and human vulnerability issues and through a futures

lens. The results of the pilot could be applied to other high

risk urban contexts and help inform the UN’s humanitarian

role in middle‐income and urban contexts.


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Scenario 9: Make south‐south and triangular cooperation a

cross‐cutting element for the UN’s humanitarian and futures

crisis drivers work.

South‐south cooperation is already a successfully tried and

tested strategy of the UN and is an approach to which the

Government, for the most part, is receptive. Venezuela could

benefit from having stronger links with expertise in the region

for addressing risk and crises threats in a futures sensitive

way. Additionally, Venezuela is an emerging donor country for

humanitarian assistance and has expertise and experience

that would be of benefit to other countries inside and outside

the region. The UN needs to make south‐south and triangular

cooperation as a core and cross‐cutting element of the UN’s

future humanitarian work.

Scenario 10: Undertake an inter‐agency, futures crisis drivers

project

The UN could undertake an inter‐agency project to see how

such joint activities can be developed. A project could be de‐

signed in the context of the work for UNDAF objective five

that already calls for an inter‐agency approach. Some exam‐

ples could be to develop a joint futures oriented project with

the National Institute of Statistics, the UN’s work with the

Ministry of Gender, UNHCR and OIM’s border work with dis‐

placed persons. UNDP’s disaster risk reduction work in Me‐

rida or its work in the Sustainable Local Human Development

Project could also have promising potential for an inter‐

agency initiative.


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The Humanitarian Futures Programme team would like to

thank the United Nations Resident Coordinator, Mr. David

McLachlan‐Karr and his colleagues for the assistance and gen‐

erous support that they provided. We wish to give special

thanks to the representatives of the UN organizations who

contributed meaningfully to our visit and to this report. In

particular we wish to convey our gratitude to Carlos Sanchez,

Ricardo Petit, Luisana Montoya, Eduardo Caldera Petit and all

the other staff at UNDP for making us feel so welcome and for

all help during our mission. Also, thanks to Delia Martinez of

UNICEF for organizing the focus group meeting with the Min‐

istry of Education.

Acknowledgements


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Foreword............................................................................................................................... ?

Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... ?

Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................... ?

Table of Contents ................................................................................................................... ?

Section I: Introduction ........................................................................................................... ?

Section II: Overview of the Context ...................................................................................... ?

Section III: Preliminary Findings. ........................................................................................... ?

Section IV: Scenarios for Strengthening Futures Crisis Capacity. ......................................... ?

Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. ?

Annexes

A – Terms of Reference for HFP mission to Venezuela .......................................................... ?

B – List of Interviewees .......................................................................................................... ?

C – Newspaper Article: HFP visit to the State of Merida ........................................................ ?

D – Scenarios planning information ....................................................................................... ?

E – Futures Group Information............................................................................................... ?

F – Glossary of Terms ............................................................................................................. ?

Images .................................................................................................................................... ?

End Notes ............................................................................................................................... ?

Table of Contents


9

This report summarizes the findings of a preliminary fact find‐

ing mission by the Humanitarian Futures Programme (HFP) of

King’s College, London to Venezuela, 27 July ‐7 August, 2009.

The mission was undertaken by a team of two at the request

of the UN Resident Coordinator. Venezuela is the sixth mis‐

sion that the HFP has undertaken with the United Nations

country teams: Central Africa Republic (2007), the Philippines

(2007), Ecuador (2007), Tajikistan (2008) and the Comoros

(2009).

The purpose of the Venezuela mission was to identify oppor‐

tunities for how the UN Country Team can strengthen its own

capacity and that of Venezuela to anticipate and respond to

future humanitarian threats and crisis drivers. In keeping

with the request of the Resident Coordinator the brief for the

mission was broad, looking at issues of existing and potential

human vulnerability. These issues were analyzed from a fu‐

tures perspective, in the context of the UNDAF and the UN’s

development, human rights and humanitarian assistance

work. To a lesser extent these same issues were assessed with

selected Government’s counterparts. Up to 80% of the popu‐

lation of Venezuela is estimated to live in urban areas. During

the mission this emerged as an important lens for the analysis

of future crisis risks and human vulnerability.

The timing for the HFP mission coincides with the implemen‐

tation of the UNDAF which was signed with the Ministry of

Popular Power for Development and Planning, for the period

of 2009‐2013. The singing of the UNDAF was the successful

result of more than two years of negotiation. The UNDAF

identifies five broad areas for cooperation that correspond

directly to national development priorities and to the Govern‐

ment of Venezuela’s own National Development Plan for the

period of 2007‐2013. These five priorities include:

• Promotion and protection of human rights, with an

emphasis on vulnerable and marginalized populations.

• Reduction of maternal and child mortality, the preven‐

tion of HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted dis‐

eases, with an emphasis on sexual and reproductive

rights.

• Poverty reduction, social injustice and strengthening of

the national information system and local community

participation.

• Capacity development with a focus on school educa‐

tion and elimination of gender barriers for primary and

secondary levels.

• Crisis risk management and humanitarian assistance.

The UN country team in Venezuela includes the Office of the

Resident Coordinator, UNDP, UNFPA, UNICEF, PAHO/WHO,

FAO, OIM, UNHCR, UNIFEM, UNAIDS, UNDSS, UNU‐BIOLAC

and UNESCO. The HFP team met with representatives of all

the UN organizations, with the exception of UNAIDS, UNU and

UNESCO.

The UN system itself is in a period of transition with the immi‐

nent departure of the Resident Coordinator, the foreseen

departures of the Resident Representatives for FAO and for

UNHCR later this year, and the pending approval by the Gov‐

ernment of the credentials for the new Resident Coordinator.

UNDP is also facing an imminent workforce reduction which

could have negative implications for its capacity in the event

of a crisis event.

During the two‐week mission, 27 July ‐7 August, the following

activities were undertaken:

• Two briefing meetings and a key informant interview

with the UN Resident Coordinator

• Key informant and group interviews with 22 UN per‐

sonnel, 19 representatives of government, academic

and scientific community, donors and partners

• Two focus group meetings, Ministry of Education in

Caracas and in the State of Merida.

• Completion of a Spanish “lite”version of the HFP Or‐

ganizational Assessment Questionnaire (OSAT) with a

total of 15 returned (13 UN staff, 2 external partners)

• Meeting with the UN Disaster Management thematic

group (UNETE)

• Two day field mission to the state of Merida to meet

with personnel of UNDP’s project on Urban Risk Man‐

agement Planning for the Municipality of Antonio Pinto

Salinas

This report includes four sections. Following this introduction,

Section II provides some general observations on the crisis

context in Venezuela and the UN’s role.

Section III summarizes the preliminary findings from the dis‐

cussions and the completion of the OSAT “lite”.

Section IV makes a set of recommendations in the form of

Section I: Introduction


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future scenarios, short and long‐term. The scenarios speak to

what the UN system itself can do to enhance its own thinking

and practice to more effectively integrate long‐term humani‐

tarian threats into its organizational processes. A second set

of scenarios offers ideas on actions that can be taken through

the UNDAF to strengthen Venezuela’s capacity to address

future crises.

Adjoining annexes include the TOR for the Venezuela mission,

a list of participants interviewed, the Merida newspaper arti‐

cle on the HFP visit, and information on two of the HFP’s basic

tools: Scenarios Planning and Futures Groups.

The HFP team is cautious about drawing any definitive conclu‐

sions or making a set of “prescriptive” recommendations in

this report. This is due to the complexity of the national con‐

text, the preliminary nature and short‐time frame of the mis‐

sion, the small sample size of interviews and limited number

of completed OSAT questionnaires.

The report should be seen as a starting point for further dis‐

cussion on how the UN can make the future more immediate

in its own work and how capacities for anticipation, adapta‐

tion, collaboration and innovation can be strengthened. The

report emphasizes ways that capacities can be strengthened

through the execution of the UNDAF.

The HFP team believes that UN country team in Venezuela is

well positioned to serve as a pioneer and a model within the

region and, for that matter, the broader UN system for:

• How the UN can effectively support governments

with high capacity to address both short‐term

shocks and long term threats in a systematic, co‐

herent and forward looking manner and,

• How the strengthening of futures capacities can

enhance the UN’s own added‐value in middle‐

income countries with complex humanitarian con‐

texts.

• How to develop creative working models and rela‐

tionships within a very complex and polarized po‐

litical environment.


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General Observations

The HFP team found it easy to engage participants in discuss‐

ing future challenges that could have humanitarian conse‐

quences in Venezuela. UN personnel and other stakeholders

readily shared their perceptions on current and future crisis

threats and the impact that these challenges may have on

their work in the future. Participants also freely shared their

perceptions on capacity requirements to effectively address

those complexities. These reflections are summarized below

in the form of observations:

• The context and landscape in Venezuela is politically

sensitive, increasingly centralized, and polarized. Cur‐

rently there are 27 designated ministries comprised of

more than 600 agencies. Increasingly Government

functions are being centralized and the private and

productive sectors are being nationalized. The last

round of elections in 2008 resulted in 17 states won by

candidates supporting the Government, with six states

taken by the opposition. Within Caracas itself, 3 of the

5 municipalities are held by the opposition. Were a

humanitarian event to occur in any areas held by the

opposition, this political polarization and fragmenta‐

tion would further exacerbate the situation.

• The Government has shown a lack of consistent in‐

volvement with and commitment towards many inter‐

national initiatives (e.g. Kyoto Protocol, Paris Declara‐

tion, etc.). Venezuela’s preference and priority is to

work bilaterally, with partner countries that share a

common political vision, such as Cuba, Nicaragua, Bo‐

livia and Ecuador and further afield Russia and Libya.

Venezuela has started to assume a donor role for hu‐

manitarian assistance, providing aid following natural

disasters in the Andean region, the Caribbean and Af‐

rica. However, this assistance has been provided out‐

side the international disaster architecture. The multi‐

lateral agenda appears to be losing its relevance with a

diminishing and unclear role for the international com‐

munity in Venezuela. Understandably, this is of con‐

cern.

• The UN’s work is regularly and negatively impacted by

the shifting within ministries and chronic transfer and

turnover of personnel in Government at all levels, of‐

ten with little to no notice. Projects are often stopped

in the middle of execution without any explanation.

During the HFP mission the Minister for Health was

replaced, thirty radio and media stations were shut

down and the Venezuelan ambassador to Colombia

was recalled. This constantly uncertain political dy‐

namic makes for a highly complex and challenging en‐

vironment within which the UN system needs to posi‐

tion its development, human rights and humanitarian

assistance work.

• The last major disaster event to occur in Venezuela

was in 1999 –the floods and landslides in Vargas where

an estimated 30,000 people were killed. Humanitarian

issues are a high priority of the UN. One of the five

UNDAF objectives is to address humanitarian threats

and issues through an inter‐agency approach. The

UNCT has an active UNETE which meets monthly,

chaired by UNDP. At the national level, the UN has had

difficulty establishing an ongoing working relationship

with the Office of Civil Protection (OCP). While Vene‐

zuela is reported to have good capacity for prepared‐

ness and response, in terms of performance its capac‐

ity is also influenced by the current, changing political

dynamic.

• There is a high degree of speculation about what may

happen in the future. In respect to crisis, the UN and

Government’s emphasis has been on known natural

hazard events and contingencies, floods, earthquakes,

drought and, more recently, on the potential for a pan‐

demic. When probed, a number of other crisis drivers

were identified, particularly those related to risks in

urban contexts. The potential for convergence of the

different urban crisis risks is high, e.g. earthquake, in‐

creasing street violence, high inflation, poverty and

income disparity, poor infrastructure, lack of access to

water and electricity, lack of employment. This conver‐

gence applies to both large and smaller urban areas.

But, it does not seem that it is really being discussed.

• The different UN organizations recognize the benefits

for the UN to have a “unified” image and message that

clearly summarizes its added‐value and promotes its

achievements. External stakeholders, particularly

those in Government, do not have a high level of un‐

derstanding on the UN system’s role in Venezuela. In

fact, in some cases, the opinion expressed about the

Section II: Venezuela in a Crisis Context and the UN’s Role


12

A. Future crisis drivers

The following eight preliminary findings relate specifically to

futures‐capacity which are organized around four broad HFP

capacities:

1. Capacity for longer‐term strategic thinking and

planning

2. Systematic information gathering and synthesis

3. Adaptation and Innovation

4. Collaboration, networks and partnerships

The findings include seven graphs derived from the OSAT

questionnaires, completed by 13 UN personnel. For logistical

reasons only 2 OSAT’s were returned from external stake‐

holders. Thus, the findings speak primarily to the UN’s capac‐

ity to address future humanitarian challenges and, secondar‐

ily, to that of the Government.

Summary: Preliminary Finding 1

Long‐term strategies that define clear end states and change

outcomes for the future that can readily translate into a co‐

herent message on the UN’s role and added value need to

be formulated.

The MDGs serve as the optimal strategic framework for the

UN’s programme in Venezuela. A comprehensive Common

Country Assessment exercise in 2006 provided the foundation

for the formulation of the UNDAF for the period of 2009‐

2013. For the UNDAF’s formulation, UN colleagues focused on

ensuring that the five objectives directly aligned with the Gov‐

ernment’s own development plan for this same period.

The general and organizational nature of the UNDAF per se

does not provide for a clearly articulated vision for change

that can be monitored and tested against systematically iden‐

tified future crisis drivers. The UNDAF could be strengthened

by having an overarching and clearly articulated vision for

change contextualized to Venezuela which incorporates

threats from future crisis drivers.

The five UNDAF objectives are conceived to be consistent

with Government priorities. However several participants

questioned the extent to which there is Government owner‐

ship of the UNDAF. There have not been any matching funds

from the Government for the UNDAF’s implementation and

Venezuela has not reported in the last four years on its

achievements for the MDGs.

The UN organizations do not have a common approach for

the UNDAF’s implementation. Participants cited many good

examples of principles that could serve as the basis for devel‐

oping commonality, e.g. give preference to working with

states and municipalities rather than the institutional or na‐

tional level, or have a common emphasis on south‐south and

triangular cooperation, etc. This could then be reflected in

annual, organizational workplans, against which targets and

outcomes could be measured and resources mobilized or allo‐

cated. As one participant noted, “It is important to be strate‐

gic about what you try to do with the Government as it is easy

for things to fail.”

The UN also needs a clear message that “brands” the UN’s

role and promotes its work in a Venezuela. This could elevate

the UN’s external image and its added‐value. The recently

created UNCT webpage for Venezuela (www.onu.org.ve) is an

excellent resource which could be easily modified to serve as

a key outreach and advocacy mechanism for a broad external

audience.


Future crisis drivers considered to be of high importance

need to be better reflected in organizational policies and

operational activities and overall capacity needs to be

strengthened.

Key informant interviews and the OSAT questionnaire can‐

vassed perceptions on the most important drivers of future

crisis in Venezuela.

The top crisis drivers prioritized in the OSAT include:

1. Increasing numbers of urban poor

2. Climate induced disasters

3. Water access

4. Collapse of state structures

5. Declining food availability

6. Resource scarcity driven conflict

Section III: Preliminary Findings

http://www.onu.org.ve


13

Figure 1: summarizes the top

crisis drivers in terms of their

perceived importance, as well

as their probability and im‐

pact. Increasing urban poverty

ranks as the highest future

crisis driver. This is consistent

with the information provided

in the key informant inter‐

views that highlighted the

urban composition of Vene‐

zuela. Climate change is seen

to be a serious threat, despite

the lack of concurrence by the

Government on the relevance

of climate change to Vene‐

zuela.

The findings on crisis drivers stimulate several questions:

• To what extent was the UNDAF’s formulation informed by these different crisis drivers?

• To what extent can the drivers be integrated into implementation strategies for the five UNDAF objectives?

• What would need to change in order for this to occur?

Figure 2: Climate change induced disas‐

ters rank the highest in terms of their

future probability and impact. While

the relationship between climate in‐

duced disasters, increasing urban pov‐

erty and human vulnerability was not

explored in great depth during the mis‐

sion; further analysis on these linkages

would be useful. Two additional areas

for further study could be a) the extent

to which disaster risks are integrated

into the UN’s climate change work, e.g.

UNDP’s Global Environment Facility,

FAO, and/or b) the potential to which

UNDAF priority five should specifically

have disaster risk reduction issues due

to climate change as one of its focus

areas.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Other future crisis drivers that were identified in the key informant interviews include: potential for interstate conflict; fire; chemical and tech‐

nical accidents associated with the oil and chemical sectors; lack of a national job creation/employment scheme for the graduating university

population; an economic base that is over‐dependent on oil; the absence of growth oriented industrial and food production sectors; land ten‐

ure issues; rapidly escalating levels of urban crime and violence; the high population growth rate of the urban poor including teenagers; the lack

of investment in internal infrastructure such as the electricity sector; brain drain.

Displaced populations and the potential for increased migration due to climate issues, human security threats and disasters were reported to

be two “silent” but potentially powerful future crisis drivers. On the part of Government officials, the crisis drivers they identified ranked earth‐

quakes as the first (including tsunamis), followed by human security and declining food availability.


14


Figures 3 and 4: For the majority of the crisis drivers, capacity is considered to be lower than their perceived importance. The capacity to re‐

spond to threats from climate changed induced disasters was ranked the highest. This could be a positive reflection on the UNETE’s recent pre‐

paredness work, though this has focused more on known contingencies e.g. floods and earthquakes. The perception that there is high capacity

to address climate induced disasters could also reflect the fact that environmental issues, including climate change, is a major thrust of UNDP’s

and FAO’s work. OIM and UNHCR both work with conflict displaced populations in the border areas. They noted that security issues and in‐

creased migration due to climate change could very well impact their future work and have capacity implications for their organizations.

Figure 4: Climate change induced

disasters rank as the crisis driver

for which there is high capacity

and which is incorporated into

organizational policy and opera‐

tional planning. The nature of

the crisis drivers suggest that any

efforts to enhance capacity to

address the drivers need to be

conceived in a way that takes into

account their changing nature

and their inter‐relationship to

one another, from a technical,

economic, social and political

perspective. This would help to

devise integrated solutions to

complex issues such as lack of

access to water and food in a

highly urbanized context. It

would, however, necessitate, that

the crisis drivers are well inte‐

grated into policy and planning

frameworks and operational

processes.

Figure 3

Figure 4


15


Short‐term planning frameworks do not provide incentives

for or adequate space for staff to plan for the future or for

the long‐term.

Anticipation is the ability of organizations to look ahead and

to identify and understand threats and opportunities on the

horizon. Two contrasting views were expressed about antici‐

pation. One view was skeptical about the value of trying to

plan for the long‐term in an environment that is in constant

flux and change. A second opinion was that in a complex envi‐

ronment such as Venezuela, the UN needs to think very stra‐

tegically and have the capacity to address vulnerability issues

from a holistic and from a futures perspective.

The graph below suggests that that there is a lack of dedi‐

cated time for planning for the future. Current planning and

funding cycles, along with a perceived need to respond to the

immediate are not conducive to promoting strategic thinking

and the type of long‐term planning (5 years or more) that

working effectively in a highly complex environment, in fact,

demands.

On the part of Government it was noted that its own short‐

term planning frameworks do not allow for managing more

cumulative disasters that can occur. For example, heavy rains

can easily generate a humanitarian crisis for which the Gov‐

ernment does not necessarily have in place the required plan‐

ning or crisis management measures. Lack of access to avail‐

able information on risks and improvised and weak response

roles at the State level were of concern to the external techni‐

cal experts that were interviewed.


Current capacity for systematic trend analysis and informa‐

tion gathering needs to be strengthened to anticipate and

plan for longer‐term, future crisis drivers.

Currently, there is a high discrepancy between the time

needed and the actual time that is available to do long‐term,

futures orientated planning. There needs to be a better bal‐

ance between a focus on the “here and now” and more long‐

term, strategic thinking and planning.

The correlation between long‐term planning and having good

evidence of crisis threats was understood by those inter‐

viewed. There was a general feeling that the UN’s own inter‐

nal capacity is weak for trend monitoring and analysis and for

anticipating longer‐term crisis drivers that could lead to major

humanitarian crises.

The current context in Venezuela is not conducive to trans‐

parent information gathering, exchange and dissemination.

The Government’s current position does appear to place a

high value on information reliability and transparency. Poor

intra and inter‐ministerial coordination mechanisms foster

compartmentalization of information, a lack of dialogue and

poor communication. Overall the dissemination of informa‐

tion was reported to be problematic and that which is pro‐

duced is not considered to be reliable. Note was made that in

2006 the Ministry of Interior stopped publishing figures and

that the second report on progress for the MDGs has not

been produced (it was due in 2005). These factors make it

difficult for the UN to establish acceptable benchmarks and to

measure impact. Figure 5

Figure 6


16

That said, the UN has very successfully forged a strong work‐

ing relationship with the National Institute of Statistics to help

modernize the information and knowledge management sys‐

tem and to support the implementation of its Strategic Plan,

2009‐2013. This work involves several UN organizations in‐

cluding UNDP, PAHO, UNIFEM, and FAO. This relationship

provides a good example of inter‐agency collaboration and

how the UN can “brand” its image.

The respective UN organizations have their own information

sources and networks. Many have strong links with well es‐

tablished scientific and technical resources within the country

and the region. All the UN organizations interviewed noted

the strength of the UN’s convening role and its unique ability

to provide a neutral space for dialogue on important issues

without politicizing them.

The limitations to more robust trend analysis and monitoring

were perceived to be: short‐term planning frameworks, lack

of incentives, competition between UN organizations, lack of

capacity, lack of networking outside one’s own community or

thematic area, lack of matching funds from the Government

for the UNDAF’s implementation.


Information on crisis drivers and humanitarian threats

within Venezuela and the UN is not well systematized, easily

accessible or sufficiently shared.

In the HFP meeting with the UNETE participants commented

on the fact that there is a lack of systematization of the UN’s

own humanitarian experience. The lack of harmonization of

different organizational disaster plans was given as one exam‐

ple of this fragmentation of the UN’s crisis experience. Citing

the UN’s response to the Vargas floods, the view was that if

another event were to occur the UN would be likely to experi‐

ence the same internal coordination problems as they did in

1999. UNETE members were also of the view that if a major

hazard event were to occur in Venezuela, the UN’s relief and

response role would probably be limited. Similar to the Var‐

gas event, the Government will be very selective about the

support it will accept from the UN, due to its own high capac‐

ity and to political reasons.

Currently, Venezuela does not count with any central infor‐

mation platform or repository whose function is to collect,

systematize and make accessible the rich array of research,

good practice, and information resources that are available in

the country for humanitarian, risk and crisis threats. Also,

there does there appear to be any systematic research under‐

taken to better understand future crisis drivers. The lack of a

central, reliable mechanism contributes to and further exacer‐

bates perceived problems related to duplication of effort,

reinventing the wheel, compartmentalization of information,

and an overall lack of dialogue and exchange between differ‐

ent key stakeholders.

Venezuela’s high disaster response capacity and reluctance to

accept “outside” assistance, suggests that the UN may want

to rethink its disaster role to be more oriented to prevention

and risk reduction and less to response. Several participants

advocated that the UN should fill the information repository

gap for humanitarian and futures crisis matters, recognizing

that capacity and resource issues for this would need to be

secured.


UN organizations demonstrate a high capacity for innovation

and for adaptation as core competencies for working effec‐

tively in a complex environment.

Adaptation relates to the ability of organizations to act once a

threat has been identified and to modify direction in response

to changing environments. Innovation is the capacity to iden‐

tify and take on new ideas from a wide range of sources that

have the potential to provide solutions to new and changing

threats. This includes not only technologies but also new

types of processes, approaches and systems.

Several UN organizations spoke about their capacity to adapt

to the changing and unpredictable landscape. The key to

working successfully is to be agile, flexible and to be able to

programme to context. The organizations that work in crisis

issues spoke to the how their emergencies work actually

helped them to work more flexibly and innovatively. Several

emphasized the need to stay focused on the UN’s mission and

the need to do this in a way that appears to be consistent

with Government priorities. The following “good practices”

for innovation and adaptation were shared:

Innovations and Adaptations

• Work on a small scale, not too big, not at too high a

level, not regionally. Think small and think local.

• Work with middle ranking government representatives,


17

The factors that constrained working effectively in the current

context included: perceived lack of compatibility of the UN’s

organizational mandate with Government’s priorities; compe‐

tition between UN organizations and differences in capacity

and resources; lack of guidance from headquarters on the

UN’s development and humanitarian role in middle income

countries; lack of sensitivity at headquarters on what it re‐

quires to work in highly complex political context; lack of re‐

wards and incentives for risk taking, adaptation and innova‐

tion; lack of feedback and systematization of what works in

practice; dependence on programming and change models

that do not readily adapt to contexts that are complex and

less predictable.

In respect to how the UN’s capacity for innovation and adap‐

tation translates to its humanitarian work and to addressing

future crisis drivers, the findings are less clear. Further analy‐

sis could identify how the UN’s capacity for working flexibly

and with agility can apply to its crisis and humanitarian re‐

lated work. It would also be useful to identify how technology

does and could support the UN to be innovative in its humani‐

tarian work.

Collaboration


The UN needs to strengthen its internal collaboration in or‐

der to address the challenges of the future.

Being collaborative means being able to work with a range of

actors to jointly address future crises. Collaboration can in‐

volve different kinds of relationships from sharing information

or expertise to joint programming or pooling of resources.

There are many good examples of the UN’s internal collabora‐

tion for programming. These include, the UN’s work with the

National Institute of Statistics for gender and for knowledge

management; the inter‐agency composition of the UNETE and

joint programme initiatives for UNDAF priority 5; and the har‐

monization of annual workplanning and budgeting processes

by UNDP, UNIFEM and UNFPA. Steps are also underway to

have common administrative services to increase cost‐

effectiveness. The RC’s efforts to strengthen UN collaboration

were noted.

While there is an openness to collaborate on the part of the

UN organizations, this capacity needs to be strengthened in

order for the UNCT to work in a more futures oriented way for

its humanitarian work. This could start with the harmoniza‐

tion of the different disaster plans, including their alignment

with the UN’s overall disaster response plan.


External stakeholders would like to see the UN assume a

stronger role in building relationships and providing tool for

crisis management for use at the local level

External partners felt that UN could assume a stronger role in

building partnerships, networking and collaboration. In the

current climate of low transparency for information gather‐

ing, dissemination and exchange, there is a need for tools for

early warning on crisis management and for information to be

produced with a degree of analytical independence.

The current climate is also not conducive to setting up mutual

cooperation frameworks between national and sub‐national

actors, where there is high need. These relationships are criti‐

their personnel turnover is not as constant as high rank‐

ing officials

• Maintain a low profile in your work but maintain a high

profile for what you are doing by promoting successes

and evidence of what works.

• Keep a good paperwork trail of what’s been done so

when new counterparts or authorities are appointed

they can be easily briefed and brought up to speed.

• Cultivate and maintain an extensive network of informal

and technical contacts at multiple levels; relationships

are of utmost importance in areas where you seek to

deliver services and with your counterpart ministry.

• Focus on key issues but in a manner that does not be‐

come political.

• Consistently show a willingness to collaborate as an

equal partner and if this requires being pro‐active and

lobbying with the Government –you need to do it.

• Have clear change objectives about what will be done.

• Be attentive to where and with whom you work.

• Give emphasis to south‐south approaches and triangular

cooperation that will capitalize on the capacity that re‐

sides in Venezuela.

• Take advantage of emergent opportunities ‐“when the

Ministry of Health called WHO/PAHO to help with the

swine flu –they were ready to help.”


18

cal to foster the emergence of stronger consent, commitment

and credibility, and to build trust among peers around com‐

mon crisis issues and concerns.

The UN has made repeated overtures to collaborate with the

Office of Civil Protection (OCP). That said the prevailing view

was that the UN and OCP do not have a strong working rela‐

tionship at the national level. At the same time, one partici‐

pant commented “you cannot wait until something happens

to establish a relationship with your key counterpart”, sug‐

gesting that the UN needs to be more pro‐active with OCP

and more strategic about the collaboration. In the HFP meet‐

ings with OCP in Caracas and Merida staff expressed a high

level of receptivity to working with the UN, particularly for

earthquake preparedness. Philipp Shonrock (left) HFP, Marilin Machego‐ Ingeomin, Luis Diaz‐

Director OCP, Marisol Uzcategui‐ Ingeomin, Ricardo Petit‐ UNDP.

Figure 7: In the future, UN organizations feel that they will work more with NGOs and Red Cross, regional organizations, acade‐

mia and Government. The increased collaboration with NGOs could reflect the Government’s preference to work through volun‐

tary and community organizations and the potential for the UN to work more closely with these actors, e.g. firefighters.

The graph also shows that some think that there will be a decreased level of collaboration with the Government in the future, as

well as with internet based groups and with the private sector. Currently, the private sector does not seem to be well positioned

in Venezuela. This may account for its low ranking as a future collaborating partner for the UN’s humanitarian work. Academics

interviewed were very receptive to working more closely with the UN.

Figure 7


19

The following ten recommendations are for the consideration

of the UN RC and the UNCT. The HFP team offers these sce‐

narios to stimulate further thinking and dialogue within the

UNCT for on how to strengthen futures capacities. Any ap‐

proach to strengthening futures capacity will likely be an in‐

cremental one, consisting of a mix of short and long‐term

interventions. For any of the proposed scenarios, the HFP is

available to work in a partnership capacity with the UN.

The scenarios comprise three types of actions:

• Those that strengthen the UN’s internal capac‐

ity to make long‐term humanitarian threats

more immediate in the context of its own work.

(Recommendations: 1, 3,4,6,7),

• Those that strengthen collaboration between

the UN, Government and other key counter‐

parts within the context of ongoing pro‐

grammes and/or relationships

(Recommendations: 2, 9,)

• New initiatives to strengthen Venezuela’s ca‐

pacity to better address long‐term crisis threats

and humanitarian gaps (Recommendations 5, 8)

Capacities for Strategic Thinking and Long‐term

Planning Capacity

1. Conduct a futures audit of the UNCT

A first and easy step to strengthen the UN’s capacity to antici‐

pate long‐term threats in a systematic way is a scenarios plan‐

ning exercise. The purpose of the exercise would be to

“futures test” the UNDAF against one or more of the long‐

term crisis drivers identified during the HFP mission, e.g. hu‐

man security and vulnerability in the event of a major earth‐

quake in an urban context.

Scenario planning can support organizations to plan for uncer‐

tainty by testing assumptions and strategic priorities against a

range of possible futures. The scenario exercise would include

an assessment of what the UN is currently doing to address

the specific crisis drivers and what it could be doing in the

future, including the formulation of follow‐up strategies.

The UNCT can form a small inter‐agency planning group

(perhaps the UNETE) tasked with selecting and researching

the crisis drivers, designing and implementing the exercise,

and coordinating follow‐up.

2. Conduct a futures audit of one or more UN organiza‐

tions and their key counterparts

A scenarios planning exercise could also be organized with

one or more UN organizations or, for that matter, the UNETE.

The exercise could be undertaken with the participation of

key Government counterparts and other partners. It would

test out a specific crisis driver and its potential impact, e.g.

disaster risk/climate change and food security or crisis drivers

related to youth or for displaced populations, etc.

The exercise could be organized at the State or municipal

level. The outcomes from the scenario exercise could be the

formulation of strategies and measures that the UN and its

partners can take to better address long‐term crisis drivers in

the context of their joint work. The exercise should be guided

by the work of a multi‐stakeholder planning group.

3. Futures capacities training for the UNCT

A training module on humanitarian futures could build capaci‐

ties for strategic thinking on longer–term humanitarian

threats. The training could be designed around core compe‐

tencies for long‐term strategic thinking, information analysis,

enhanced collaboration and innovative practices. The training

could be developed in a way that produces a tools package

that UN organizations can then adapt and use in the context

of their own work, including how to design and run futures

scenarios exercises.

4. Redesign the UN Venezuela’s webpage

The webpage can benefit from a redesign to be a more user‐

friendly portal in terms of language, graphics and navigation.

The webpage could showcase the UN’s partnerships, its col‐

laboration with Government and the capacity that resides in

Venezuela. In fact, the webpage could include a futures sec‐

tion that speaks to the UN’s partnership with Venezuela to

address long‐term crisis threats.

Section IV: Scenarios for Enhancing Futures Crisis Capacity


20

Capacities for Information Gathering and Analysis

5. Establish a platform for humanitarian information and

long‐term crisis drivers

A web‐portal was felt to be the best way of publicizing the

different initiative processes and results. This proposed infor‐

mation system to be developed and maintained by UNETE.

The information platform framework is based on improving

the information sharing, planning, prioritizing and coordina‐

tion of crisis management initiatives, in order to meet the

demands of the different stakeholders within Venezuela. The

key national stakeholders are: government, public institu‐

tions, universities, civil society organizations, media and the

general public. All stakeholders would be able to use the in‐

formation platform as an input for their activities. The data

may be drawn from all types of sources but they should com‐

plement one of the following topics:

Themes: risk identification and assessment on poverty,

crisis drivers research, urban vulnerability and

risk issues, governance and risk reduction, risk

reduction and sustainable development, the

economic impact of disasters, preparedness,

response and recovery for specific hazard and

crisis threats, innovation for crisis management

and humanitarian assistance, gender and risk

reduction, etc.

Tools: collection, organization, peer review and access

to tools, techniques, instruments and method‐

ologies that have been produced by different

organizations, e.g. risk assessment, vulnerability

reduction, programming to context, community

resilience and preparedness, mainstreaming of

risk and crisis drivers into development pro‐

gramming, simulations and scenario planning

tools, technology for crisis management, inno‐

vative practices, etc.

Dialogue: forums to showcase national and sub‐national

experiences in Venezuela, dialogue processes

between scientists, technical personnel and

humanitarian policy makers and planners to

discuss futures crisis issues’ good practice fo‐

rums to share innovative practices for crisis

management.

6. Establish a futures early warning system

Having a “Futures Early Warning System” would strengthen

the UN’s capacity to anticipate long‐term future threats and

opportunities. This could be coordinated through the Infor‐

mation Platform (Recommendation 5), drawing on expertise

from within the UN organization, within Venezuela and the

region. The purpose of the system would be to identify and

analyze factors that may impact on the UN’s work and the

communities it serves in the future, in a positive or a negative

way. The system would use horizon scanning and trend moni‐

toring, scanning sectors outside the traditional humanitarian

and development would include military, sciences, techno‐

logical and the corporate sector.

The system could be designed in a way that draws upon con‐

ventional models and methods for early warning and futures

methodology, up to a two decade perspective. It needs to

incorporate an effective system of prioritization, communica‐

tion of issues and clear dissemination of information for effec‐

tive decision making and strategy‐operational alignment. The

system could be guided, in part, by the Futures Group (see

the next scenario).

7. Establish a Futures Group

The UN could establish a Futures Group comprised of natural

and social scientists, principally from academic and research

centers and organizations. These individuals could inform the

UN’s work to better monitor and integrate future crisis trends

and drivers into its ongoing work and to identify emerging

technologies or new innovations to support strategic plan‐

ning. Collaborating in this way with external actors capitalizes

on the UN’s convening role and its role in promoting dialogue.

It would also help to elevate the UN’s public image and to

bring in resources that few UN organizations would have the

capacity to develop internally that will be necessary to ad‐

dress long‐term, complex and uncertain future issues.

Capacities for Adaptation, Innovation and

Collaboration

8. Create a capacity development pilot for urban future

crisis drivers

This could be a pilot activity at the State or municipal level to


21

test out an approach for how the Government can enhance

its capacity to holistically address urban risk issues. The work

would need to be undertaken through some form of an inter‐

institutional coordination mechanism, existing or new, in part‐

nership with key actors in Venezuela. The findings from this

pilot could then be scaled up to other urban areas in Vene‐

zuela and could inform the UN’s humanitarian work in urban,

middle‐income contexts.

Activities within the pilot could include: organizational capac‐

ity assessment for urban risk crisis drivers, organizational and

cross‐organizational training on the four HFP capacities, multi‐

stakeholder dialogue forums for developing urban risk reduc‐

tion strategies and/or developing implementation plans for

risk reduction policy frameworks, south–south cooperation,

organizational network strengthening, etc. UNDP’s Capacity

Development Group in Panama could be a potential partner

for this work.

9. Make south–south and triangular cooperation a cross‐

cutting element of the UN’s humanitarian and futures

crisis drivers work.

South–south cooperation is already a successfully tried and

tested strategy of the UN and one that is viewed favorably,

for the most part, by the Government. Venezuela could bene‐

fit from greater access to the expertise and good practices of

others in the region for crisis and risk management. For exam‐

ple, Cuba is perceived as a role model by Venezuela and is

well regarded for its preparedness system. Venezuela could

also benefit from the experience of other countries that are

signatories to the Hyogo Framework for Action and that have

good national disaster risk reduction programmes with an

urban focus, e.g. Bangladesh, India, China, etc.

This scenario would make south‐south and triangular coop‐

eration a key element of UNDAF Objective 5. UNISDR in Pa‐

nama could be approached to assist with this work. This could

strengthen the UN’s leadership role and capacity for south‐

south cooperation for humanitarian and risk related issues.

10. Undertake an inter‐agency futures crisis drivers project

Within the context of its work to implement UNDAF Objective

5 the UNCT, through the UNETE, and under UNDP’s leader‐

ship, could jointly undertake a futures oriented project on an

issue of longer‐term vulnerability. An inter‐agency project

could look at disaster risk issues in the context of the UN’s

work with the National Institute of Statistics or the Ministry of

Gender. Or, a promising opportunity might be with UNDP’s

Sustainable Local Development work in 13 States, focusing on

income generation and the prevention of violence with low‐

income women and men.

A joint project could present the UN organizations with an

opportunity to see how such inter‐agency activities could be

developed. The project could serve as a pilot to test out an

inter‐agency approach for addressing crisis drivers in a futures

oriented way that makes effective use of the resources and

expertise of the UN system.


22

Introduction:

At the invitation of the UN Resident Coordinator in Venezuela,

the Humanitarian Futures Programme, King’s College, Lon‐

don, has been invited to undertake a study of future humani‐

tarian threats that might affect Venezuela and the efforts that

the Government of Venezuela is making to address such

threats. In requesting this study, the UN Resident Coordinator

hopes to identify ways in which the UN Country Team can

support the long‐term disaster crisis mitigation efforts of the

Government.

Background:

The Humanitarian Futures Programme [HFP], King’s College,

London, through its multi‐donor funded project, the Inte‐

grated Action Programme [IAP], has worked with UN Country

Teams in Africa, South America, South Asia and the Far East to

strengthen their capacities to anticipate and prepare for long‐

term humanitarian threats. In so doing, the IAP assumes that

central to anticipating and preparing to deal with long‐term

humanitarian crises are the governments of vulnerable coun‐

tries. At the same time, the IAP also assumes that UNCTs, in

assisting governments, should benefit far more from the UN

system as a whole, and towards this end the IAP has worked

closely with the Inter‐Agency Standing Committee [IASC] and

its members.

It is in this context that the UN Resident Coordinator has in‐

vited HFP to undertake a preliminary mission to ascertain the

long‐term humanitarian crisis concerns of the Government of

Venezuela and the measures that the Government is taking to

anticipate and prepare for such crises.

Venezuela is prone to a wide range of potential humanitarian

threats, and the Government has taken determined measures

to address these. Yet, in light of the demands of the immedi‐

ate, there may be issues which the Government needs to con‐

sider that have longer‐term humanitarian implications. In part

the source of such potential threats may fall well outside the

ability of the Government to address. In this category pan‐

demics are a case in point. In part potential threats may not

have been recognised for their humanitarian consequences,

and in this category large‐scale systems collapse arising out of

cyber failures is a case in point.

Yet, in noting such examples, the issue is not to predict the

future, but to assess the capacity of institutions to anticipate

what might be. In other words, governments like all with hu‐

manitarian roles and responsibilities need to have effective

anticipatory capacities to be sensitive to factors that might

create disasters in the future and also that might mitigate

their impacts. In a related vein, they, too, must have the ca‐

pacity to be adaptive, or, in other words to be able to readily

adjust humanitarian prevention, preparedness and response

programmes and policies to new types of humanitarian crises

and means to offset them.

IAP in the Venezuelan context

HFP has been requested to undertake a preliminary analysis

of the long‐term humanitarian concerns and issues of rele‐

vant ministries and departments of the Government of Vene‐

zuela. The overall objective of this initiative is to determine

ways in which the UNCT might be able to support Govern‐

ment efforts to deal with potential long‐term threats that

could create large‐scale humanitarian crises within the coun‐

try within a decade and a half timeframe.

Specific Objectives

1) in discussions with relevant Government ministries and

departments, to identify those potential humanitarian

threats which could generate substantial disasters and

emergencies for a significant portion of the Venezuelan

population, or the region, within a fifteen year time

frame;

2) to review with appropriate authorities how such po‐

tential humanitarian crisis drivers are currently identi‐

fied and monitored. This objective would also involve

communities of natural and social scientists as well as

other bodies that influence the Government’s percep‐

tion of long‐term humanitarian threats;

3) based on #2 above, to develop an understanding about

how Government and related authorities are preparing

for such long‐term humanitarian threats. This objective

also includes an effort to see how present Government

prevention and preparedness initiatives relate to its

perceptions of long‐term humanitarian threats;

4) to explore the regional dimensions of major humani‐

Annex A: TOR for the HFP Mission to Venezuela


23

tarian threats, and the linkage between prevention and

preparedness initiatives within Venezuela and the ca‐

pacity of the Government to support disaster manage‐

ment and disaster risk reduction in a regional context;

5) in collaboration with relevant Government ministries

and departments as well as with relevant authorities,

to identify possible humanitarian crisis threats that are

not incorporated into the Government’s prevention

and preparedness plans and programmes. In so doing,

to suggest possible synergies between on‐going Gov‐

ernment plans and programmes and new types of hu‐

manitarian threats;

6) based upon the preliminary analysis outlined in #1‐4,

above, to determine in collaboration with UNCT mem‐

bers the relationship between HFP’s initial findings and

the on‐going programmes and projects of UNCT mem‐

bers. It is assumed that this exercise will clarify possible

ways that the work of the UNCT could be adjusted to

meet the identified long‐term humanitarian prevention

and preparedness needs of the Government.

Project Objectives

1) The principal output of the proposed preliminary as‐

sessment will be a report which identifies:

[a] perceived long‐term crisis threats;

[b] Government prevention and preparedness ac‐

tivities already underway that relate to addressing

such threats, both within Venezuela and the re‐

gion;

[c] long‐term threats that may need to be consid‐

ered by the Government;

[d] UNCT programmes and projects that directly or

indirectly support on‐going Government preven‐

tion and preparedness activities;

[e] possible ways that UNCT programmes and pro‐

jects – now and in the future – could help the Gov‐

ernment to deal with potential humanitarian

threats not incorporated in present Government

plans;

2) Should the Government of Venezuela wish to hold a

follow‐up workshop to explore the issue of future crisis

threats and the role of the UNCT in supporting its ef‐

forts, HFP would be able to assist by providing appro‐

priate documentation, based primarily on the prelimi‐

nary assessment report.

Project Outcomes

1) Based upon this preliminary assessment, it is hoped

that the following outcomes would result:

[a] agreement on ways that the UNCT could assist

the Government of Venezuela to identify and

monitor long‐term humanitarian threats;

[b] adjustment wherever feasible of present UNCT

programmes and projects to strengthen crisis pre‐

vention and preparedness both in the immediate

and longer‐term;

[c] proposals on ways that new UNCT initiatives

could address long‐term crisis prevention and pre‐

paredness.

Methodology

1) The methodology for the preliminary assessment

would be based principally upon in‐depth interviews

with relevant Government ministries and departments.

Further interviews would be undertaken with other

bodies, including relevant scientific and social scientific

research institutes and non‐governmental organisa‐

tions;

2) In parallel with the interview process, HFP would un‐

dertake a preliminary desk‐top study intended to iden‐

tify major works that identify present and future crisis

threats that pertain to Venezuela;

3) A tailored version of the HFP’s Organisational Self‐

Assessment Tool [OSAT] will be distributed to an iden‐

tified group of UNCT members and Government offi‐

cials to be completed during the course of the mission;

4) The HFP preliminary assessment process will initially

involve a two week mission to Venezuela to undertake

interviews and to distribute the OSAT. HFP will rely

almost entirely upon the office of the UN Resident Co‐

ordinator for appointments with relevant Government

ministries and departments as well as with members of

the UNCT.


24

Annex B: List of Interviewees Key informant interviews, UNETE Meeting and OSAT completion

Agency Name Position/ Title OSAT KII UNETE

Meeting

1 UNDP David McLachlan‐Karr Resident Coordinator

2 UNDP Carlos Sanchez Programme Officer, Disasters x x

3 UNDP Ricardo Petit Programme Officer, Environment

4 UNDP Alberto Fuenmayor Programme Officer, Information x x

5 UNDP Rosa Paredes Human Development Officer x

6 UNDP Yves Sassenrath Deputy Resident Representative

7 PAHO/WHO Jorge J. Jenkins Chief of Mission x

8 PAHO/WHO Jackeline Sanchez x x

9 UNICEF Amanda Martin Acting Chief of Mission x

10 UNICEF Ives Cunill Operations Official x

11 UNICEF Delia Martinez Adolescents Official x x x

12 FAO Francisco Roberto Arias Milla Representative/Chief of Mission x x

13 FAO Carlos Miguel Mendoza Assistant Representative x

14 FAO Maria Elisa Centeno Lugo Programme Assistant x x

15 FAO Victor Urbina Operations Manager x

16 OIM Marisol Fuves Chief of Mission x x x

17 UNHCR John Fredrikson Regional Representative x

18 UNHCR Enrique Ochoa Regional Programme Officer x

19 UNHCR Rosalina Carmeno Programme Officer, Local Development x x

20 UNFPA Jesus E. Robles V. Auxiliary Representative x

21 UNDSS Eduardo Zubillaga Local Security Advisor x x x

22 UNDSS Tim Mitchell Head, Local Security x

23 UNDSS Andreina Carrillo Local Security Assistant x x

24 Virginia Jimenez Diaz UNDP Consultant, Geography and Risk Management

x

25 Geographic Institute

Alicia Moreau Climatologist (retired) x

26 European Union Mark Fiedrich

First Secretary x

Table cont. over page


25

28 British Embassy

Michael Groves

Second Secretary, Political Affairs x

29 INAMEH‐IDEA (Hydro/Met)

Hector Fuenmayor x

30 FM Center Caterina Valentino Journalist x

31 Ministry of Envi‐ronment

Sergio Rodriguez Vice‐Minister x

32 University of Cen‐tral Venezuela

Abraham Salcedo and Maria Teresa Martelo

Researchers and Professors x

33 INGEOMIN Avilio Lavarca President x

34 INGEOMIN Maryln Machego Coordinator, Science Mission x

35 Mayor B Ludmila Gomez Office of Security Management, Chacao x

36 FUNVISIS Daniel Moreno Chief of Documentation & Information x

37 FUNVISIS Antonio Aguilar Professor, Seismic Prevention x

38 FUNVISIS Juan Luis Guzman Expert x

39 FUNVISIS Niurka Vizcaya Sociologist x

40 UNDP consultant Mayor Alcadia de Santa Cruz de Mora x

41 Office of Civil Protection

Luis Diaz Director x

27 European Union Paolo Oberti Cooperation, Operations Sector x

Table continued...

Focus Group, 4 August, 2009, Caracas

FUNVISIS, Bomberos, Ministerio de Educacion, Protecion Civil, Corpovargas, Ministerio de Ambiente, Sociedad Venezolana de

Tecnicos Superiores, Universitarios en Manejo de Emergencias and Accion Contra Desastres (SOVETSUMEACD).

Focus Group, 10 August, 2009, Merida

Fundacite, Universidad de los Andes, Gobernacion de Merida, Ingeomin, Proteccion Civil.


26

PHILIPP SCHONROCK: "PREVENIR DESDE EL FU‐

TURO LO QUE PUEDE VENIR"

El profesor Philipp Schonrock, representante de la misión pre‐liminar del Programa Futuros Humanitarios del Kingś College de Londres, visitó la ciudad de Mérida para sostener un en‐cuentro en Fundacite‐Mérida con instituciones, actores y estudiantes ligados al tema de la Gestión de Riesgo.

Durante la sesión de trabajo participaron y expusieron sus experiencias los representantes de las siguientes insti‐tuciones: Fundación para el Desarrollo de la Ciencia y la Tec‐nología de Mérida, Fundacite Mérida; Centro de Investigación en Gestión Integral de Riesgos, Cigir; Fundación Venezolana de Investigaciones Sismológicas, Funvisis; Fundación para la Prevención del Riesgo Sismico, Fundapris, Universidad de los Andes, ULA; Instituto Universitario Tecnológico de Ejido, Iute, Comision Regional de Educación Preventiva Escolar, Crepe, Oficina de Proyectos de la Gobernación del estado Mérida, así como estudiantes ligados al tema.

Schonrock fue invitado a Venezuela por el coordinador resi‐dente de las Naciones Unidas en Venezuela, para conocer las experiencias locales con miras a apoyar futuras iniciativas que se puedan generar en Venezuela frente a temas humanitarios, tanto desastres naturales como desastres tecnológicos, en la busqueda de cómo se puede prevenir mejor desde el futuro.

El profesor Schonrock, quien lleva dos semanas en el país, refirió acerca de su visita “Estamos haciendo un trabajo de contextualización de información, para escuchar las voces vivas de Venezuela que trabajan en la gestión de riesgos, aprender de ellos sobre sus mejores prácticas e intercambiar información a todos los niveles. Buscamos conocer cuales pudieran ser futuros escenarios de trabajo para Naciones Uni‐das y también para Venezuela”.

El Programa Futuros Humanitarios está diseñado para poten‐ciar las capacidades de anticipación y adaptación de las or‐ganizaciones que son responsables de prevenir, prepararse para y responder a las crisis humanitarias. El objetivo superior es ayudar a las organizaciones que intervienen en respuestas humanitarias a ser más eficaces al responder a futuras crisis más complejas. El Programa es apoyado por un creciente número de auspiciadores bilaterales, multilaterales, no guber‐namentales y del sector corporativo, trabajan en Africa, Asia Pacifico, Europa del Este y Latinoamerica, apoyados por la

Cruz Roja Internacional.

Es importante recordar que en Venezuela el crecimiento po‐

blacional se ha desarrollado de manera desordenada y poco

regulada y una de las consecuencias que esto acarrea es que

más del 80 % de la población vive sobre una franja estrecha

conocida como el sistema de fallas principal de Venezuela,

integrada por la falla de Bocono, el sistema de fallas de San

Sebastian y el sistema de fallas del Pilar. Todas nuestras prin‐

cipales ciudades están colocadas sobre ese sistema de fallas,

con la excepción de Maracaibo. Es por ello que se están lle‐

vando a cabo esfuerzos coordinados tanto de instituciones

públicas como de organizaciones no gubernamentales para

despertar mayor conciencia en la población sobre la impor‐

tancia de la gestión de riesgos y la acción humanitaria para

atender eficazmente los posibles desastres tanto naturales

como tecnológicos.

Annex C: Newspaper Article on Philipp’s Visit to Merida


27

Joanne do a summary from doc and shared drive and insert

here

Annex D: Description of Futures Scenario Planning


28

Annex E: Information on the Futures Group Joanne do a summary from doc and shared drive and insert

here


29

Annex F: Glossary of Terms BCPR Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recov‐

ery

DRR Disaster Risk Reduction

FAO UN Food and Agriculture Organisation

FG Futures Group

GEF Global Environment Facility

HFP Humanitarian Futures Programme

MDGs Millennium Development Goals

NGO Non‐Governmental Organisation

OCP Office of Civil Protection

OIM Office of International Migration

OSAT Organisational Self‐ Assessment Tool

PAHO/WHO Pan American Health Organisation/

World Health Organisation

RC (UN) Resident Coordinator UN System

TOR’s Terms of Reference

UNAIDS Joint UN Programme on HIV/AIDS

UNCT United Nations Country Team

UNDAF United Nations Development Assistance

Framework

UN DMT UN Disaster Management Team

UNDP United Nations Development Pro‐

gramme

UNDP/CDG UNDP/Capacity Development Group

UNDSS UN Department of Safety and Security

UNESCO UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural

Organisation

UNETE UN Technical and Emergency Team

UNIFEM UN Development Fund for Women

UNFPA UN Population Fund

UNHCR UN High Commissioner for Refugees

UNICEF United Nations International Children’s

Emergency Fund

UNISDR UN International Strategy for Disaster

Reduction

UNOCHA UN Office for Coordination of Humanitar‐

ian Affairs

If you would like more information about the Humanitarian Futures

Programme, please contact our offices on +44 (0)20 7848 2869, and

speak to one of our HFP team members.

Alternatively contact us at info@humanitarian futures.org, or go to

our website at www.humanitraianfutures.org

If you would prefer to write to us, please do so via the Programme Co‐

ordinator:

Humanitarian Futures Programme

School of Science and Public Policy

King’s College London

138‐142 Strand

London

PRELIMINERARY FACT FINDING MISSION: THE UNITED NATIONS ... · VENEZUELA – Mission Report September 2009 5 collaboration. Preliminary Finding 5: There is a lack of systematization

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