Preliminary Results from Preliminary Results from CliPAS/APCC CliPAS/APCC Multi-Model Ensemble Hindcast Multi-Model Ensemble Hindcast Experiments Experiments Bin Wang and June-Yi Lee IPRC/ICCS, University of Hawaii, USA In-Sik Kang Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea Chung-Kyu Park APCC, Busan, Korea Acknowledge contributions from all CliPAS investigators
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Preliminary Results from CliPAS/APCC Multi-Model Ensemble Hindcast Experiments
Preliminary Results from CliPAS/APCC Multi-Model Ensemble Hindcast Experiments. Bin Wang and June-Yi Lee IPRC/ICCS, University of Hawaii, USA In-Sik Kang Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea Chung-Kyu Park APCC, Busan, Korea. Acknowledge contributions from all CliPAS investigators. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Preliminary Results fromPreliminary Results from CliPAS/APCC Multi-Model CliPAS/APCC Multi-Model
Bin Wang and June-Yi LeeIPRC/ICCS, University of Hawaii, USA
In-Sik KangSeoul National University, Seoul, Korea
Chung-Kyu ParkAPCC, Busan, Korea
Acknowledge contributions from all CliPAS investigators
APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation)
APCN(APEC Climate Network)
(APEC Climate Center)
APCC
About APCCAbout APCC
APEC Participating Member EconomiesAPEC Participating Member Economies
APCN (1999-2004)APCN (1999-2004)APCN, “The APEC Climate Network,” is a regional
climate program aimed at realizing the APEC vision of regional prosperity through mitigation of economic losses induced by abnormal climate.
APCN produces real-time operational climate prediction information based on a well-validated multi-model ensemble system (MMES).
APCC (2005-APCC (2005-In order to enhance the activities of APCN, Korea
proposed and the APEC Science and Technology Ministry endorsed establishment of APEC Climate Center (APCC) in Korea with a core staff of scientists and computing facilities.
The APCC Opening Ceremony will be held on 18-20th November 2005 during the APEC Summit Meeting in Bussan, Korea,.
Background: From APCN to APCCBackground: From APCN to APCC
APCC is an international institute and serves as a hub for
APEC regional climate research and prediction
APCC is an international institute and serves as a hub for
APEC regional climate research and prediction
To provide core facilities and man powers to accomplish
the vision.
To provide core facilities and man powers to accomplish
the vision.
To make an effort toward accomplishing the
WCRP/COPES vision
To make an effort toward accomplishing the
WCRP/COPES vision
APCCAPCC
CliPAS CliPAS Climate Prediction and ItsClimate Prediction and Its
Application to SocietyApplication to Society
A Joint US-Korea Research Project A Joint US-Korea Research Project in Support of APCCin Support of APCC
ObjectivesObjectives Investigate a set of core scientific problems on
systems for intraseasonal and seasonal prediction Develop economic and societal application
models.
APCCAPCC
NCEPNCEPNCEPNCEP
IPRC- ICCS / UHIPRC- ICCS / UHCES/SNUCES/SNU
NASANASANASANASA
COLACOLACOLACOLA
KMAKMA
Participating Institutions in CliPASParticipating Institutions in CliPAS
FRCGCFRCGCFRCGCFRCGC FSUFSUFSUFSUGFDLGFDLGFDLGFDL
PIPI Bin Wang (UH/IPRC/ICCS)
Co-PI’sCo-PI’s J. Shukla (GMU/COLA), I.-S. Kang (CES/SNU), L. Magaard (ICCS/UH)
Co-IsCo-Is
J.-Y. Lee (UH/ICCS)B. Kirtman, J. Kinter (GMU/COLA)T. Krishnamurti, Steven Cocke (FSU), N.C. Lau, T. Rosati, W. Stern (NOAA/GFDL), M. Suarez, S. Schubert, W. Lau (NASA/GSFC),A. Kumar , J. Schemm (NOAA/NCEP), J.-S. Kug (CES/SNU), W.-T. Yun (KMA)C.-K. Park (APCC), S, Kar (APCC),J.-J. Luo (FRCGC/JAMSTEC), T. Yamagata (UT)J. Marsh (UH/ICCS), W.-D. Grossmann (GKSS/ICCS)
One-Tier 1 vs Two-Tier Anomaly PCC over AAM (JJA) One-Tier 1 vs Two-Tier Anomaly PCC over AAM (JJA)
ENSO vs PrecipitationENSO vs Precipitation SST vs. PrecipitationSST vs. Precipitation
Probabilistic forecast for above normal precipitation greater than 0.5 standard deviation
Probabilistic MMEPProbabilistic MMEPRange of Area of ROC Curve/ Above Normal PrecipitationRange of Area of ROC Curve/ Above Normal Precipitation
APCC DEMETER
JJA
DJF
Probabilistic forecast for above normal 2m air temperature greater than 0.5 standard deviation over ENSO Region
APCC DEMETER
Deterministic and Probabilistic MMEPDeterministic and Probabilistic MMEPPotential Economic Value/ Above Normal 2m Air TempPotential Economic Value/ Above Normal 2m Air Temp
Summary of the Preliminary Results
a. The CliPAS blended one- and two-tier MME hindcastshave skills comparable to DEMETER in precipitation andsurface temperature prediction, although their individualmodles’ performance is lower that those of DEMETERs.
b. The CliPAS MME is more effective due to their larger mutual independence as evidenced from their larger range of their skills .
c. The MME is more effective when and where individual models have moderate performances while potential predictability is large. MME is more applicable to the summer monsoon regions.
d. In A-A summer monsoon heavy precipitation regions, one-tier is superior to two-tier system due to increased feedback from the local surface SST and improved ENSO teleconnections.