Preliminary Findings Phase 1 Scoping of Multiple Drivers of Vulnerability, Water Stresses and Impacts: Thailand Case Study Project Meeting 12 September.

Preliminary FindingsPhase 1 Scoping of Multiple Drivers of

Vulnerability, Water Stresses and Impacts: Thailand Case Study

Project Meeting12 September 2013, Manila

Study AreaBangkok Metropolitan Region

Pathumthani Province

Samkhok District, Pathumthani

Study area: Krachang Communities

BMR•7,700 sq.km. area in central Thailand

including Bangkok and five adjacent provinces

• 10 million pop (2010), 55% of GDP

• NOT an administrative territory

Study Area: Krachang Villages•Sited in a low-lying land of Chao

Phraya Delta

•Having dynamics on land uses, social and economic activities + vulnerable to climate-related water stresses

Climate Changes and Peri-UrbanHow they Induce Vulnerability of Water Stresses in the Study Area

Climate Change Effects in Thailand

•Rainfall increase across all regions by 10-20%

•Max. and min. temp increases by 2 C.

•Natural disasters become common -- increasing damage records over years

•Recent critical years: 2005 drought affected 71 provinces – including

Rayong industrial area 2006 46 provinces were flooded. 47 people

killed and more than 2.4 million were affected.

2011 (the wettest year in the 61-years record), 65 provinces were flooded. More than 880 people killed and millions were homeless or displaced.

Krachang Villages

Low landRiver/canalPonds

Pathumthani Province

• Geography: low-lying areas of Chao Phraya Plain, around 2 meters above sea level. The river rises 50 cm. in rainy season causing floods.

• Water resources: Chao Phraya River + irrigation and natural canals of 1,060 kms. + underground water (not in good quality)

Prone to flood, high vulnerability zone to flood is on the western side (include the study area)

• Average Rainfalls: around 1,200-1,500 mm./ year. Concentrating in May-SepIn the past 15 years, major floods occurred in Y 1995, 2006, 2010 and 2011 BUT these years were not the top highest amounts of rainfalls

Year Amount of Rainfall (mm.)

Number of rainy days (days)

1998 1,189 1151999 [2nd] 1,752 1482000 1,459 1322001 1,285 1272002 1,131 1152003 [1st] 1,821 1342004 699 982005 1,320 1252006 1,432 1332007 1,309 1232008 1,421 1372009 1,412 1202010 [3rd] 1,673 1212011 [4th] 1,530 1492012 1,407 136

• Other factors intensifying floods:

water mgt in the upstream

Changing slopesObstacles of waterways

Absorbing capacity of soil….

Peri-urban characteristics

Effects of Peri-urban Characteristics on Water Stresses in the Study Area

WATER STRESSES

Rapid population increase +

weak planning & regulations

Inadequate water and WW

infrastructure

Increase pollution sources

Elimination of water ways

Ineffective water and WW mgt

PERI-URBAN CHARACTERISTICS

Land conversion from single to

mixed land uses

Unclear jurisdictions and inability of water mgt institutions

Socio-Economic Profile and Affects of Water Stresses in the Study Area

Two Villages in Krachang sub-district, Pathumthani Province

• 2.4 sq.km. on the western side of the Chao Phraya

• Three canals connecting to the river

• The main street (Bang Na-Bang Tei) constructed in 1996 and has been repeatedly increased of height. It now also functions as a dyke.

• Land-use is diverse. Factories along highway, local residents along the canals and rivers/ Gov. offices/ commercial houses along the streets/ real estate projects with new residents over 2,000 HHs/ few agricultural plots and a number of vacant lands

Population and sampling: • Total number of local residents is 305 HHs. All Buddhists, mostly Mon ethnic. Many

have resided in the area for few generations.

• Random survey conducted with 108 HHs. Most respondents were in the working age (30s-60s). Men and Women respondents were equal.

Socio-Economic Profile:

• HHs size: average 4-5 persons. Few have large numbers around 7-11 persons

• Registered heads of households

Female (42 registered HH-heads) Male (66 registered HH-heads)Wife Mother Single head

of householdHusband Father Single head

of household

8 16 18 57 5 4

• Education: half graduated from local primary schools. 35% obtained high school and 15% obtained vocational education

• Occupations and income:

General laborers,

27

Factory workers; 9

Company employees;

8

Government officers, 10

Small busi-ness owners,

23

Medium-large busi-

ness owners; 2

Farmers; 3

Unemployed, 26

• 15% in low income (<5,000 THB (160 USD)/ month/ HH), 35% have 300-600 USD,

50% in middle income having 800 USD.

• Different occupations different economic resources different level of vulnerability

• Full-time employments have regular income and job security even during the crisis (Gov officials have more benefits) WHILE general laborers, part-time factory workers and small-business owners lost all income. Unemployed became more dependence.

Motorbike/ taxi-drivers, construction workers, cleaning workers, wage laborers in farms

Elders, housewives, students, jobless

• Perceptions of Climate Change:

• Both men and women’ opinions were similar in perception of forms but women

reported to have more effects from the climate-induced impacts.

Increasing temperature decreasing rainfall Unseasonal rainfall

54

33

25

52

27 28

Male Female

Temp. tends to rise every year

increasing unseasonal rainfalls

rainy season is shorter but the rainfalls is higher

Water Stresses in Krachang Communities

October-early Dec annuallyRise of Chao PhrayaAverage flood level 20-50 cm

Seasonal flooding

Events in the past 30 yrs – 1995 flood 1 m. around 2 monthsConsidered (by the local) a moderate stress

2011 accumulation of rainfalls by 5 cyclones + release of overloaded dams. Pathumthani (and other peri-urban Bangkok) was used for diverting floodwater to protect BKKFlood 2-3 meters for 3-4 months

Extreme flood

Low water quality in

canal

High river level water gate closed/ Dry spell no dissolved water pollutionHigh health risk, esp. the poor HHs.

• Impacts of Water Stresses to Local Livelihoods:

Water stressHigh

impactLow

impactNo

impactTotal

% of respondents

Excessive Water

Annual flood 3 35 20 59 55%

Extreme event (2011 flood) 108 0 0 108 100%

Water Pollution

Consequence of variation of precipitation 2 19 0 21 19%

High impact: the residents are unable to cope with it

Low impact: the residents perceive the risk, but they can mitigate some impacts

No impact: the residents perceive the risk and they can prevent themselves from the impact

High impact area

Low impact area

No impact area

Annual Flood:

** Level of water stress severity – a combined result of locational vulnerability and political and socio-economic conditions of the HHs.

Extreme Flood:

Very high impact area

High impact area

Water pollution:

High impact area

Low impact area

Main pollution source

Gender Analysis on Impacts of Water Stresses

Overload of work for the care givers during water stress situations•During floods, the care giving tasks become very tough and tiring – preparing food with out

kitchen, keeping good sanitation without toilets and waste collection

•Esp. for poor families with sick members

Poor Female-headed HH: the most vulnerable group •To cope with stresses would require physical strengths (as lifting up belongings) or technical

skills (as fixing electricity) which they are lacking.

Gender differences in intra-household power relations over financial resources and flooding compensation•Limited access and control over financial resources in the HHs among the female members.

•Not the registered owners of the houses and thus cannot access compensation.

Gender differences in political power and accessing to government assistance•Men often contact formal agencies. Men reported for HH losses overlooking concerns of

women.

•Political space is also male dominated. Gender specific needs are not considered.

Thailand•Increasing rainfall 10-20%•Increasing temperature•More frequent natural disastersKrachang Communities (Residents‘perceptions)•Less numbers of rainy days but increasing amount of rainfalls•Increasing temperature•More frequent unseasonal rainfall

CLIMATE CHANGE

•Geographical vulnerability -- low-lying, flood-prone areas•Poor water management in the upstream reservoirs

OTHER DRIVERS OF VULNERABILITY

WATER STRESSES

Annual and extreme floods

Poor water quality

•Damage to houses, appliances/ vehicles•Loss of aqua products•Loss of income•Stresses/ sickness•Local conflicts

•Serious water-borne disease/ skin infection•Stresses/ sickness•Local conflicts

Different levels of impacts and vulnerabilities among communities’ members due to: •Different economic statuses•Different genders •Different power relations and political influences

IMPACTS OF WATER STRESSES

•Rapid pop increase

Inadequate water and WW infrastructure

Increase pollution sources

Elimination of water ways

Ineffective water and WW mgt

PERI-URBAN CHARACTERISTIC

•Land conversion to mixed land uses

•Unclear jurisdictions and inability of water mgt institutions

DRIVERS OF VULNERABILITY at the Community Level

SUMMARY:

Your feedbacks are welcome. Thank you.