Predictive Media Buying - an analytical method to optimise media buying.

Predictive Media Buying - a Programmatic Approach to offline lead generation

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Who we are and Why this presentation

Key Principles

Traditional Methods

Programmatic Approach

Wrap Up

Contents

What do we do?• World first, disruptive solutions in the marketing and media

industries

• Providing efficiency gains and profit improvements in the tens of millions of Rands per year

• Known for tailor made, extremely accurate, proven approach to optimising marketing budgets and growing business

How?• The largest purely analytical media agency in Africa (40+

employees, offices in Cape Town, Johannesburg and Nairobi)

• A reputation for ingenuity and innovation as a result of:• an average of 2.5 degrees per analyst• consulting experience in over 50 countries• highly experienced senior • the brightest graduates from around Africa

• Level 2 BBBEE rating

Incline

Our clients• Industries Serviced

• Insurance (short and long term) • Banking• Retail Credit• NGO’s

• Predominantly South African but have clients in the Middle East and Africa

Assist clients withDesign and optimisation across all stages of the growth and account lifecycle:

• Direct marketing/media campaigns• Credit Risk• Account management• Client communications

• Development of flexible cost effective easily implementable solutions

• Integration of solutions with existing infrastructure

Television42%

Other Above the Line11%

SMS campaigns18%

Digital campaigns11%

Cold Modelled Leads18%

Sales potential (typical Insurance) Far more scalable than any other

marketing channel

Above The Line Media is …

?Why would this presentation be interesting?

POPI friendly

Doesn’t require customer data

Is very relevant in emerging markets

R100-R300

R150+

R50-R120

At high scale, a very cheap form of hot

leads & overall cost of acquisition

BUT : Historically, Media ROI has been difficult to quantify and impossible to predict results

What if we could predict what media placements would get us what volume & quality at what

cost?

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Key Principles

Traditional Methods


Wrap Up

Contents

What do I mean by Programmatic Approach? Traditional offline media planning is still similar to the approaches used

last century. Major advances in digital marketing are used as examples of how much more modern media planning is these days but the truth is, that science is typically applied only to online and direct channels

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media_planning for example refers predominantly to measures such as reach, cost per point, etc. which as measures have been shown to be unreliable and only useful in the absence of more modern data science data and techniques

The Programmatic Approach is a modern means to planning, executing and analyzing media campaigns using – Modern Data Science Analysis principles– Modern technology to enable key steps in the processesand informed and influenced by direct and digital marketing advances in knowledge and technology

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media_planning

Advantages achieved with Programmatic Approach

Reduced costs• Improved

predictiveness allows better and more consistent buying decisions

AccurateForecasting

• Long term media spend planning enabled and aligned to sales operations gearing

Effective Monitoring

• Technology enabled real-time monitoring -immediate reactions

• Media owners kept “honest”

Scheduling • Technology

enabled scheduling improves engagement with media owners

Cross channelsynergies

• Accurate comparisons across channels allows full channel co-ordination

Modern Marketing Key Principles

Plan• Strategy• Test and

learn

Target• Actualise

Strategy• Data• Indicators

Execute• Operations

Excellence• Time of the

essence• Technology

Enabled

Monitor• Operations

Negation• React

quickly• Technology

Enabled

Analyse• Clean test

results• Build

models• Qualify

learnings

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Key Principles

Traditional Methods


Wrap Up

Contents

Traditional Media Planning & Targeting **

** taken from 2012

Outcome: 20% correlation from GRP to

responses per advert

Typical Result

• Real life example, nearly 50% of leads sourced (via a TV campaign of R1.1 mil) never even attempted

Traditional Executing• Disconnect between

Marketing and Sales Operations activity

• No link to other online and offline marketing activities

VolumeResponders 9 721Total Calls 5 025Contactable 3 685Right Party Contact 3 522Sale 689

Traditional Monitoring• Typical buying spec:

• GRP• LSM• Age• Gender

• TV use own tools to find appropriate links• If unable to advertise at one place – just

replace with adverts elsewhere• Replacing adverts is left to people who (as

expected from human nature) can forget• No knowledge of the value of one advert to

another as long as GRP is similar

Typical Result

• Real life example, 2 436 (6%) leads were lost and even if the difference in invoicing regularized – still an overall loss

• Client was completely unaware that adverts were not being played as scheduled and corrective action below invoicing amount

Cost LeadsAdverts booked 3 935 891 40 000Adverts played as scheduled 3 463 584 35 200Adverts not played 472 307 4 800Adverts played not scheduled 460 755 2 436

Traditional AnalysisMicro-sampling

• Traditional sources of data use thousands to predict the behavior of millions

• For example, a study used 200 surveys used to predict behavior of 1.6 mil consumers

• Relevant because of the absence of useful data for the targeted metrics

Irregular

• Census data (once every 10 years)• Surveys slow and delayed• Reports often months behind• More frequent information is often

available but not used

How does this apply to Traditional Media Methods?

Plan• Strategy

based on miniscule sampling

• Pseudo-statistics

Target• Targeting

based on human experience and intuition

Execute• Very

bureaucratic• Old

fashioned• Non tech-

enabled

Monitor• Monitoring of

whether adverts flighted unimportant (just replace)

• 7 day delay

Analyse• Data

weighted out of reasonable use

• Gut feel predominant

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Key Principles

Traditional Methods


Wrap Up

Contents

Programmatic Approach Planning & Targeting

• Use modern statistical techniques to plan specific tests to maximize schedule information

• Models built show excellent correlations between predicted and actual responses

• Gen3-5 Models are able to predict daily response volumes with 90% and stronger accuracy

• Even Gen1 models are 3 times stronger than Traditional methods

Programmatic Approach: Executing

Lead Flow

Salesforce 2

Call Centre 2Call Centre 2

Branch 2Branch 2

Customers segment 2

ATL Media 1ATL Media 1

Digital Partner 2Digital Partner 2

Data Provider 2Data Provider 2

Branch 2Branch 2

Control Portal

Lead Generation Lead Optimisation Lead Conversion (Sales)

Branch 1

Data Provider 1

Digital Partner 1

ATL Media 1

Existing Customer DB 1

- Aggregate (all sources)- Dedupe (unique leads)- Enrich (append data)- Predict (model & segment)- Route (right salesforce)- Measure (CPL, ROI)- Compare (to predicted)- Dashboard (real-time monitor)- Insight (trends, optimise)- Test (new leads)

Call Centre 1

Branch 1

Field-force 1

LMSModule

End to End Management

DataModule

data

data

datadata

data

data

MediaModule

DigitalModule

Module Module Module

ModellingModule

Bureau Customer

Live ScoringModule

CommunicationModule

ModellingModule

Field Agent Partner 2Field Agent Partner 1

Programmatic Approach: Monitoring

Technology Enablement• No leads lost• Leads linked to source• Leads tracked throughout workflow• Problems noticed immediately

Lead Source Cost Leads generated Cost P Lead Sales Cost p SaleTV – SABC1 R 2 600 000 21 667 R 120 5 417 R 480TV – eTV R 833 333 4 630 R 180 1 157 R 720Print Campaign R 350 000 1 522 R 230 380 R 920Digital Provider 3 R 6 000 15 R 400 8 R 800Cold Calling R 70 000 23 333 R 3 117 R 600SMS campaign with script 5A R 1 500 000 13 636 R 110 3 409 R 440

SMS campaign with script 5B R 1 500 000 10 714 R 180 2 083 R 720

Marketing Source and Sales Operations effectiveness can be optimised

Terrible ResultCancel

Great Source Extend

Switch all SMSs to Script 5A

Programmatic Approach: Analysis• Build and rebuild the Models frequently

(every 3 months)• Book with media owners specifically at slot

level as opposed to generic rulesets• Continue to cherry pick based on human

expertise but restrict it to an agreed percent of your advertising spend

• Ensure you keep assigning budget for learning slots

• Embed technology to speed up optimization and scenario planning and testing

Typical Results

• Real Life Example: Significant drop in cost p lead once predictive models implemented

R 4

R 6

R 8

R 10

R 12

R 14

R 16

R 18

R 20

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Cost p Lead

Pre PA

Post PA

Programmatic Approach: Analysis• Operational Planning enabled when one can daily predict accurate media volumes• Synergy with other channels allows further marketing ROI improvements

• For example, sending SMSs to keep steady volume flow in call centre where known dips in lead flows are known – large improvement in call centre efficiency and effectiveness

How the Programmatic Approach operates

Plan• Strategy

based sound models & business goals (brand & sales)

• Experimental design

Target• Targeted

using models, cherry picking and learning goals

Execute• Technology

enables synergy with other online and offline channels

Monitor• Monitoring

drives optimal advertising

• Actual vs Predictive highlights issues quickly

Analyse• Models built

and rebuilt as learning paradigm improved

• Creatives & other channels integrated

But what about …?

Brand &Creative

Non Direct Response?

• Brand strength can have an enormous impact on customer response (we’ve seen up to 300% increased response rates)

• We’ve quantified that TV advertising has a “halo” effect on other channels

• Creatives appeal to different segments … require specific plans

• Not all “creatives” are equal

• Integration with electronic response channels extremely indicative of outcome

• 87% of website spikes were linked to TV adverts flighted within minutes of those spikes

• Less data means less accuracy, but even in its worst scenarios, the Programmatic Approach has much more data than Traditional methods

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Key Principles

Traditional Methods


Wrap Up

Contents

Wrap up• The programmatic approach to offline Media has led to significant

advantages to those who have adopted it:• Reduced costs of acquisition• Improved effectiveness and efficiency of operations (getting the

most bang for marketing buck)• Predictiveness both on micro (p day) and macro (12 months

planning) levels that allow for better business planning• Synergy across marketing channels allowing for true integrated

marketing• Links offline to online• Links sales and brand & creatives

• The Programmatic Approach can be achieved by applying modern marketing principles and modern technologies