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Predictive Analytics Sara Gaeta-Anguiano
Chief, Predictive Analytics
Los Angeles County
The Book… Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game
The Movie… Moneyball
Moneyball focuses on the team's analytical, evidence-based, sabermetric approach to assembling a competitive baseball team.
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Oakland A’s management radically departed from the norm for how baseball players are selected…
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Payers: • Never-Aided Case • NCP age 35-40 • Youngest DP age 6-15 • NCP Employed • No – Bankruptcy, Prison, DV • Monthly Support Order of $250 • NCP Email on file
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Model-building using IBM SPSS Modeler
Case outcomes predicted and confidence scores using Modeler
Year 1 – Prediction Accuracy
Payer Non-Payer
Predicted Correctly 30.2% 54.8% 85%
Predicted Incorrectly 6.8% 8.2% 15%
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• Treating all cases equally • Reactive rather than pro-active
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Predictive Analytics in Child Support
Steven Eldred, Director Director
County of Orange Department of Child Support Services
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