Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email protected]www.melanieswan.com July 28, 2010 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Collective Intelligence Live Prediction Markets Simulation Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/ “The future is something which every one reaches at the rate of sixty miles an hour, whatever he does, whoever he is.” - C. S. Lewis SU Prediction Market: https://gsp10.inklingmarkets.com SU Online Polling: http://www.rwpoll.com/
Prediction markets are a tool for collecting and aggregating opinion using market principles. Enterprise prediction markets (social business intelligence) are in use in 100-200 large organizations for project management and revenue forecasting. Consumer prediction markets are becoming widely used for event prediction (election results, product sales, box office receipts).
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July 28, 2010Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga
Collective Intelligence Live Prediction Markets Simulation
Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/
“The future is something which every one reaches at the rate of sixty miles an hour,
whatever he does, whoever he is.”- C. S. Lewis
SU Prediction Market: https://gsp10.inklingmarkets.com SU Online Polling: http://www.rwpoll.com/
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Prediction MarketsJuly 28, 2010
About Melanie Swan
Hedge fund manager, futurist, entrepreneur, founder DIYgenomics
Work experience: Fidelity, JP Morgan, Arthur Andersen, iPass, RHK/Ovum
MBA, Wharton; BA, Georgetown University Sample publications
Swan, M. Multigenic Condition Risk Assessment in Direct-to-Consumer Genomic Services. Genet. Med. 2010, May;12(5):279-88.
Swan, M. Translational antiaging research. Rejuvenation Res. 2010, Feb;13(1):115-7.
Swan, M. Engineering Life into Technology: the Application of Complexity Theory to a Potential Phase Transition of Intelligence. Symmetry 2010, 2, 150:183. [Summary of Singularity University technology and implication synthesis]
Swan, M. Emerging patient-driven health care models: an examination of health social networks, consumer personalized medicine and quantified self-tracking. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2009, 2, 492-525.
Source: http://melanieswan.com/publications.htm
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Prediction MarketsJuly 28, 2010
Summary
Prediction markets are a tool for collecting group opinion using market principles
Enterprise prediction markets (social business intelligence) are in use in 100-200 large organizations for project management and revenue forecasting
Consumer prediction markets are becoming widely used for event prediction (election results, product sales, box office receipts)
Image: http://www.inklingmarkets.com
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Prediction MarketsJuly 28, 2010
Futurist toolkit for collaborative intelligence
Short term (0-5 yrs): some degree of insight and certainty Forecasting Scanning Business intelligence Trend analysis Market research Outlier identification Technology evaluation
checklist
Long term (5-20+ yrs): uncertainty, discontinuity Scenario planning Simulation Frameworks Wild-carding Longitudinal studies
Multiple time frames Prediction markets Image: Bill Frymire
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Prediction MarketsJuly 28, 2010
Crowd-sourced toolkit for collaborative intelligence
Value: leading indicator, expose hidden information
Pay-off: monetary, reputational, indirect
Accuracy: better than conventional forecasting1
1Source: Arrow, K.J. et al “The Promise of Prediction Markets” Science, 2008, 320, 5878, 877-878 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/320/5878/877
Iowa Electronic Markets: 2008 US Democratic Convention Market
BIO – Biotech, Bioinformatics, Medicine & Neuroscience
You are the world’s leading social venture capitalists Seeking ideas with social, environmental & economic impact 5 teams, $1 billion to invest Alongside prediction market registering opinion on outcomes
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Prediction MarketsJuly 28, 2010
Futures simulation workshop
Image: Natasha Vita-More, Primo Posthuman
2010 – 2020 Each team creates two
plausible future technology ideas to pitch to the other teams
Each person votes by investing in the top technologies
Winning teams and technologies are those that garner the most investment
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Prediction MarketsJuly 28, 2010
Future simulation workshop: 2010-2020 Each team creates two plausible future technology ideas
to pitch to the other teams, for example Technology, product Startup, research group, non-profit organization, NGO Policy, social shift, new governance/economic model Strategy undertaken by existing companies/countries Water/food/upcycling/space/energy or not
Criteria Novelty Social, environmental & economic impact Trade-off: high-impact idea vs. practical realizability
Present to the group Concept soundbite (‘eBay for Genomes’) 1-2 minute pitch summarizing the idea
Image:http://bit.ly/csxwqv
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Prediction MarketsJuly 28, 2010
Team formation & Inkling intro
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Prediction MarketsJuly 28, 2010
Futures simulation workshop - debrief
What did you realize thinking about energy in 2020? AI in 2030?
How did earlier technology developments influence future outcomes?
How is it best to think about multiple technology areas together?
What did you notice about the simulation and the prediction market together? Reliable?
In what situations could you see using prediction markets? SU?
Image: http://van.embl.de/htfg/img/htfg_logo.png
What did you learn about trying to predict innovation development in long time frames with high uncertainty?