PREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF PEST PREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF PEST ESTABLISHMENT BY COMPARING SOURCE ESTABLISHMENT BY COMPARING SOURCE AND DESTINATION ENVIRONMENTS AND DESTINATION ENVIRONMENTS by by Dr. Erhard John Dobesberger, Dr. Erhard John Dobesberger, Plant Health Risk Assessment Unit, Plant Health Risk Assessment Unit, Ottawa, Canada K2H 8P9 Ottawa, Canada K2H 8P9
29
Embed
PREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF PEST ESTABLISHMENT BY COMPARING SOURCE
PREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF PEST ESTABLISHMENT BY COMPARING SOURCE AND DESTINATION ENVIRONMENTS by Dr. Erhard John Dobesberger, Plant Health Risk Assessment Unit, Ottawa, Canada K2H 8P9. Logistic Risk Curve. Pest or Disease Progress Curve. -1. Y = [1 + exp(-ß1 - ß2*X)]. Risk Curve. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
PREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF PEST PREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF PEST
ESTABLISHMENT BY COMPARING SOURCE ESTABLISHMENT BY COMPARING SOURCE
AND DESTINATION ENVIRONMENTSAND DESTINATION ENVIRONMENTS
byby
Dr. Erhard John Dobesberger, Dr. Erhard John Dobesberger, Plant Health Risk Assessment Unit, Plant Health Risk Assessment Unit,
Ottawa, Canada K2H 8P9Ottawa, Canada K2H 8P9
PREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF PEST PREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF PEST
ESTABLISHMENT BY COMPARING SOURCE ESTABLISHMENT BY COMPARING SOURCE
AND DESTINATION ENVIRONMENTSAND DESTINATION ENVIRONMENTS
byby
Dr. Erhard John Dobesberger, Dr. Erhard John Dobesberger, Plant Health Risk Assessment Unit, Plant Health Risk Assessment Unit,
Ottawa, Canada K2H 8P9Ottawa, Canada K2H 8P9
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 70 90
Expected Damage Level (%)
Cu
mu
lati
ve P
rob
abili
tyLogistic Risk CurveLogistic Risk Curve
-1Y = [1 + exp(-ß1 - ß2*X)]
Pest or Disease Progress CurvePest or Disease Progress Curve
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
0 15 30 45 70 100
Time or Environmental Indicator
% P
op
ula
tio
n D
en
sit
y
NORMAL ABUNDANCEOCCASIONAL ABUNDANCEPOSSIBLE ABUNDANCE
Hardiness zones in Canada which correspond Hardiness zones in Canada which correspond to US hardiness zones of North Americato US hardiness zones of North America
China: China:
Key Key
to to
HardinessHardiness
ZonesZones
Zones Zones
CorrespondCorrespond
to US to US
hardiness hardiness
zoneszones
Hardiness zones in Canada which correspond Hardiness zones in Canada which correspond to US hardiness zones of North Americato US hardiness zones of North America
ECOREGIONS OF THE WORLD (after BAILEY 1998)ECOREGIONS OF THE WORLD (after BAILEY 1998)
FVV, WORLD VEGETATIONVEGETATION COVER
Huke:Huke: Agroclimatology for South, Southeast, and East Asia, Length of Dry Agroclimatology for South, Southeast, and East Asia, Length of Dry
and Wet Seasonsand Wet Seasons
Ecodistricts of Canada - 1961 - 1990 Climatic Normals Ecodistricts of Canada - 1961 - 1990 Climatic Normals