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Annex Predicting bankruptcy Source: www.bnkruptcyaction.com/bankpred2.htm The above mentioned link provides the software that handles the calculation. The authors claim that this Bankruptcy Predictor has proved to have an accu- racy rate of over 88 percent for small businesses (average asset size US$2.5 mil- lion) and an accuracy rate of over 83 percent for very large businesses (average asset size US$63.4 million). A negative score predicts bankruptcy. Variable Current Assets Interest Expense Profit or loss before taxes Performance level Variable Sales Total Assets Current liabilities Calculate score Performance level The higher the score, the more financially sound is the company. The lower the score, the greater the danger of the company becoming insolvent. This technique should be considered complementary to other tools. The formula used is the "Springate Formula" developed at Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia. 171
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Page 1: Predicting bankruptcy - Springer978-0-230-28865-2/1.pdf · Predicting bankruptcy Source:  The above mentioned link provides the software that handles the calculation. ...

Annex

Predicting bankruptcy

Source: www.bnkruptcyaction.com/bankpred2.htm

The above mentioned link provides the software that handles the calculation. The authors claim that this Bankruptcy Predictor has proved to have an accu­

racy rate of over 88 percent for small businesses (average asset size US$2.5 mil­lion) and an accuracy rate of over 83 percent for very large businesses (average asset size US$63.4 million). A negative score predicts bankruptcy.

Variable

Current Assets

Interest Expense

Profit or loss before taxes

Performance level Variable

Sales

Total Assets

Current liabilities

Calculate score

Performance level

The higher the score, the more financially sound is the company. The lower the score, the greater the danger of the company becoming insolvent. This technique should be considered complementary to other tools. The formula used is the "Springate Formula" developed at Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia.

171

Page 2: Predicting bankruptcy - Springer978-0-230-28865-2/1.pdf · Predicting bankruptcy Source:  The above mentioned link provides the software that handles the calculation. ...

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Index

Abu Dhabi, 65, 159 achievement motivation, 130, 131-2

characteristics and attitudes, 114 action program, 23 actualization, 101, 102 Africa, 51, 60, 81 Air France, 60 Al Habtoor Group, 159-60 Al Tomooh and Sheik Moh Ben

Rashid Foundation, 145 Albert, M., 109 Algeria, 83 American venture capital firm, 144 Anglo-Saxon model, 109 Ansoff, 1., 3, 27, 29 Ansoff's growth matrix, 16, 17-18 Anthony, R., 24, 75 Arab entrepreneur, 117

bright side, 129-30: achievement motivation, 131-2; locus of control, 132-3

call it quits, 162-3: performance­related sign of trouble, 164; personal goal, 163-4; person­related sign of trouble, 165; re­entry, 168; seriousness of issue, 165-6; situation, 168-9

dark side, 129, 130: distrust of environment, 133-4; propensity to enterprise, 134-5

entry barriers: biased business choice, 124; conditions for exit, 125; finance, 125; lack of identity, 124; minority status, 124; motivation, 123; non­guided entry, 124-5; non­guided project choice, 124; regulation, 123-4; understanding and choosing technology, 125

exit barriers: cost, 127; lack of alternatives, 127; restart, 127; social stigma, 127

propensity to enterprise, 119-21 self-employment, 118-19 small business sickness, 121-2:

source, 122; types, 127-8 survival barriers: administrative and

regulatory requirement, 125; daily conduct, 125; finance, 126; market information, 126; technology shifts, 126; unfair competition, 126

Asia, 60, 79, 109 Asian entrepreneur, 143 Asian model, 109 Australia, 60, 131

Bahrain, 69, 155 Bahrain Monetary Agency, 144 balanced score card, 24, 75 BeG portfolio analysis, 18-19 Boulding, K., 32, 105 Brazil, 72 British Airways, 60 Buckman, R., 150 business performance-related

problems, 166, 167

capital in Dubai, 43 in Singapore, 45

capital market, 35 capitalism, 32

quasi-European type, 38-9 capitalist thinking system

177

entrepreneurial behavior root, 105: breeds, 108-9; inputs, 105-7; outputs, 108; transformation mechanism, 108

in Syria, 32: breed, 38-9; disabling conditions, 37-8; enabling conditions, 37; feedback, 37; GDP growth, 37; input, 35; output, 33, 37; system-specific quantitative parameters, 34;

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178 Index

capitalist thinking system - continued transformation mechanism, 33,

36-7 Chief Executive Officer (CEO)

of family firms, 159-60 succession, 21

China, 52, 70, 72, 149 venture capital: corporate VC fund,

152; government as enabler, 151; managed intervention, 153; provincial government VC fund, 152-3; structure, 150-1; unique products, 151-2; university VC fund, 152

China New Technology Start-up Investment Company, 150

Clausewitz, Carl von, 6 competitive rivalry, 63 contemporary, 91, 101 core competency fitness test, 77 corporate culture, 22-3 corporate governance, 10 created value added, 110 creative destruction, 32, 99 culture's consequences and

dimensions, 130, 133, 134, 168, 169

detachment, 4, 28 distrust of environment, 133-4 diversification, 18, 63, 64 Drucker, P., 99-100, 101, 109, 110 Dubai, 40, 160

analytical framework, 41-2 capita!, 43 demand condition, 43 firm strategy, 44 government, 43, 60 infrastructure, 42 investment climate, 43 labor, 42 labor market, 42, 43 learn form Singapore's mistakes,

49-50 relatedness and supporting

industry, 43-4 and Singapore, comparative

view, 47-9

Dubai Chamber of Commerce, 155 Dubai Islamic Bank, 145 Dutch petrochemical corporation

(DSM),69

economically active population, 111, 120

efficiency objectives, 13, 30 learning objectives, 15 productivity objective, 15

Egypt, 57, 83, 86-7, 121, 130, 131, 132-3

external orientation parameters, 87-8

government, 88-9 public enterprises, competitiveness,

88 strategic choice, 88-9

El Namaki, M., 9, 23, 52, 53,111, 119-20, 121, 123, 131, 134, 135

Emirates Airlines, 59-60 business model, 61-2 competitive profile, 60-1 strategic behavior, 63 strategy, 62-4; effectiveness,

64-7 employer, 111, 119 entrepreneur, 99, 100-101

function, 101-3 see also Arab entrepreneur

entrepreneurial behavior root capitalist thinking system, 105:

breed, 108-9; input, 105-7; output, 108; transformation mechanism, 108

entrepreneurial traits, 103-5 entrepreneurship, 99-100

capitalist thinking, implication, 109-10

demand-side perspective, 113 free market thinking, implication,

109-10 measurement, 111-12 supply-side perspective,

112-13 Etihad Airways, 65 Europe, 60, 79, 109, 156 European mode!, 109

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family business, 155 in GCC state: case studies, 158-60;

conglomeration, 161; divergence areas, 157-8; explicit SCA, absence, 162; exploiting opportunities made by national development strategy, 160-1; innovation or R&D, 161; manufacturing or processing, connection with, 161; respect scale, 161-2; response to government strategy, 161; share and management, 156-7

Far East, 60, 90 financial growth objectives, 13-14 Flanagan, M., 64-5 Ford, 74-5, 78, 79 Foreign Direct Investment (FOI), 45,

46, 149, 151 formalization, 4, 28 France, 156

Gao,]., 151 Geleen,69 Gelsenkirchen, 69 GEM (Global Entrepreneurship

Monitor) report, 112, 139, 142 Germany, 156 Global Emerging Markets Group, 144 globalization, 10 Goldsmith, A., 4, 29 Goodman, J. B., 84 Govindarajan, V., 24, 75 growth objectives, 12-13, 30

financial growth objectives, 13-14 market growth objectives, 14

Gulf Air, 60 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)

state, 138-9 family business, 155: case studies,

158-60; conglomeration, 161; divergence areas, 157-8; explicit SCA, absence, 162; exploiting opportunities made by national development strategy, 160-1; innovation or R&D, 161; manufacturing or

Index 179

processing, connection with, 161; respect scale, 161-2; response to government strategy, 161; share and management, 156-7

venture capital in, 139-40: case studies, 144-5; experience, 142-3; growth, 147-8; investor, 140-2; small business finance, 139, 145-6; types, 143-4

Gulf Finance House (GFH), 144

Handy, C. B., 22 Harvey, v., 46 Hill, Charles W. L., 24, 75 Hofstede, G., 130-1, 133, 168 HSBC fund, 145 hyper-competition, 10

ILO (International Labor Organization), 111, 118, 119

India, 70, 72 individualism, 130, 169 industry fitness test, 76-7 infrastructure, 57

in Dubai, 42 in Saudi Arabia, 71 in Singapore, 45

Injazat Technology Fund, 144-5 instability in Middle East, 71 international market

Libya's strategic position, 50-1: SBAs, 51-3, 54-7; starting position, 53-5

International Monetary Fund (IMF), 83,85

intrapreneurship, 100 investment climate

in Dubai, 43 in Singapore, 45-6

Iran Foreign Investment Corporation (IFIC), 145

Iraq, 59 Ireland, 117 Irish Development Authority (IDA), 117 Islamic Corporation for the

Development of the Private Sector (ICD), 144

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180 Index

Islamic Development Bank (IDB), 144

Japan, 117 Jayid, A. Ahmed, 83 Jones, G. R., 24, 75 Jubail United Petrochemical Co., 69

Kaplan, R. S., 24, 75 Ketz de Vries, M., 100, 129, 136 Khalaf Al Habtoor, 159 KLM,60 Kodak, 74, 78 Korea, 177 Kuwait,155

labor in Dubai, 42

labor market in Dubai, 42, 43

learning objectives, 15 Lebanon, 59, 160 Libya, 50-1, 155

government, 51 SBAs, 54-7: energy, 56-7; global

positioning, 51-3: tourism, 57 starting position, 53-5

Liedkta, ]., 8 locus of control, 132-3 logistics, 71 long-term orientation, 130 Loveman, G. W., 84 Lufthansa, 60

Malaysia, 117, 126, 138 management, 101, 122, 152 managerial role, of entrepreneur,

102-3 Mandel]., 107 market development, 18,63 market growth objectives, 14 market penetration, 17, 63 masculinity, 130 McClelland, D., 100, 113, 114, 130,

131 Mexico, 72 Middle East, 59, 60, 63, 67, 69, 71, 81,

90 military strategy, 6 Mintzberg, H., 3, 4, 27-8, 100, 102

Misr Spinning and Weaving, 79-81, 88

Mohammed Al Habtoor, 160 Mohieddin, Mahmoud, 81 Morocco, 121, 155 motivational need

types, 113-14

the Netherlands, 38, 41, 73, 75, 163 Nordhaus, D., 107 Norton, D. P., 24, 75

Omar Effendi, 83 open skies policy, 60-1 organization culture, see corporate

culture organizational complexity, 10 own account worker, 111, 119

paid employment, 110, 121 Palestine, 59 person-related problems, 166, 167 petrochemical industry, 68, 69-70,

72-3 Pettijohn, T. E, 132 Phang,Sock-Yong,44 planning model

fallacy, 4, 28 Polaroid, 74, 78-9 Porter, M. E., 4, 10,27,41,62, 70 Porters "Diamond Analysis", 27, 41,

42 potential fitness test, 76 power distance, 130, 169 power of buyers, 63 power of suppliers, 62 predetermination, 4, 28 private equity finance, see venture

capital privatization, 83, 84

in Egypt, 86-7: external orientation parameters, 87-8; public enterprises, competitiveness, 88: strategic choice, 88-9

in Saudi Arabia, 92: external orientation parameters, 92-3: public enterprises, competitiveness, 93-4; strategic choice, 94-5

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privatization - continued strategic options matrix, 85-6 in Syria, 89-90: external orientation

parameters, 90; public enterprises, competitiveness, 91; strategic choice, 91-2

product development, 18, 63 productivity objective, 15 propensity to enterprise (PTE), 111,

119-21, 131, 134-5

Qantas,60

raw material supply, 71 Ray, ].]., 131 "Reach" program, 70 resource fitness test, 77 return on investment (ROI), 12,

15-16, 30 The rise and fall of strategic planning, 4,

27-8 Russia, 72

Samuelson, P., 107 Saudi Arabia, 67, 73,90,92, 121, 131,

132-3 competitive advantage, 70-1 external orientation parameters, 92-3 government, 68, 94 public enterprises, competitiveness,

93-4 strategic choice, 94-5

Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABlC), 67-70, 93-4

base chemical, 73 competitive advantage real, 73 down stream, 73 issue of size, 74 vision and strategy, 71-3

Saudi Economic and Development Company (SEDCO), 145

Saudi Telecommunication Co (STC), 83, 92

Schumpeter,]., 32, 99, 100, 115 self-employment, 111, 118-19 shared services organization, 69, 72 Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum,

64-5, 159 Shirley, M., 83, 86

sickness, 121-2 source, 123 types, 127-8, 165

Index 181

Singapore, 38, 40, 41, 44 analytical framework, 41-2 demand condition, 46 and Dubai, comparative view, 47-9 firm strategy, structure and rivalry,

46-7 foreign direct investment, 45 government, 46 infrastructure, 45 investment climate, 45-6 relatedness and supporting industry,

46 strong workforce, 45 venture capital, 45

small business, 117, 141, 146 sickness, 121-2: source, 123; types,

127-8 small business finance, 139, 147-8

needs, 145-6 South Korea, 52 Spreng, D., 143 Steiner, G., 3, 27, 29 strategic behavior,S, 18

drivers, 9-11, 30 levels, 26

Strategic Business Arenas (SBAs) energy, 56-7 global positioning, 51-3 tourism, 57

Strategic Business Unit (SBU), 17, 24-5, 52, 69, 159

strategic choice, 16-17 for Egypt's textile industry, 88-9 for Saudi Arabia's SABlC, 94-5 for Syria's telecommunication

industry, 91 Strategic Competitive Advantage

(SCA),162 strategic control, 10-11,23-4, 74, 75

Arab illustration, 79-81 core competency fitness test, 77 industry fitness test, 76-7 versus management control, 76 non-Arab case illustration, 78-9 potential fitness test, 76 resource fitness test, 77

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182 Index

strategic management, 4, 6-7 strategic planning, 3, 6, 27-8 strategic shift

major strategic shift, 20, 21 minor strategic shift, 20

strategic thinking, 7-8 attribute, 8

strategy, 6 definition, 3-4

strategy analysis, 9, 29 strategy formulation, 16-17,27,28

corporate level, 25 macro level, 26

strategy implementation, 19,20,22 strategy making, 3

business level, 24-5 environment level, 25-7 strategic behavior, 5, 18: drivers,

9-11,30; levels, 26 strategy analysis, 9, 29

Structural Adjustment Policies (SAPs), 85

substitution effect, 62 sustainable competitive advantage,

9-10 SWOT analysis, 11-12, 13,30 Syria, 89-90, 121

capitalist thinking system in, 31: breed, 38-9; disabling conditions, 37-8; enabling conditions, 37; feedback, 37; GDP growth, 37; input, 35; output, 33, 37; system-specific quantitative parameters, 34; transformation mechanism, 33, 36-7

external orientation parameters, 90 public enterprises, competitiveness,

91 strategic choice, 91-2

Syrian Korean Company (SKC), 91 Syrian Telecommunications

Establishment (STE), 91

Taiwan, 52, 117 Tan, Kim-Song, 44 Thailand, 38,90, 117, 121, 138 threat of entrants, 62 Total Entrepreneurial Activity, 111-12 Tunisia, 57, 83

UAE, 41, 130, 131, 132-3, 140, 160 uncertainty avoidance, 130, 169 United Kingdom, 41, 131, 156, 160 United States, 38, 70, 73, 109, 123,

135, 139, 142-3, 147, 156

venture capital, 45, 139-40 in China, 149: corporate VC fund,

152; government as enabler, 151; managed intervention, 153; provincial government VC fund, 152-3; structure, 150-1; unique products, 151-2; university VC fund, 152

in GCC, 138-9: case studies, 144-5; experience, 142-3; growth, 147-8; investor, 140-2; small business finance, 139, 145-6; types, 143-4

venture capital Bank of Bahrain, 144 Ville roy & Bosch, 157 vision and visionary zeal, 9

Welch, ]., 28 White, S., 151 Wilken, P., 100, 114-15 William Clarke & Sons, 157 World Bank, 53, 83, 85, 134 World Economic Forum, 47

Global Competitiveness Index, 41 World Trade Organization (WTO),

49-50,51,92

Yemen, 121

Zhang, W, 151