1 Predicting Arrival Time Uncertainty from Actual Flight Information Maarten Tielrooij [email protected]
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Predicting Arrival Time Uncertainty from Actual Flight Information
Maarten Tielrooij [email protected]
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Flow Management Tactical ATC
24 hours 3 hours 20 minutes 0 min
boarding & departure en-route arrival
ATC
Airline
AMAN
1 hour
AMAN: Extending the Horizon
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Surveillance error
Schedule Deviation
Weather forecast error
Performance model error
Trajectory prediction modeling error
AMAN: Extending the Horizon
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19 busiest connections from Amsterdam (2013)
Stockholm
Milan
AMAN: Extending the Horizon
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Aircraft 6 (on ground)
Aircraft 6 (airborne)
AMAN: Uncertainty
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ETA
RTA
+ -
Stockholm
Milan
ETA Uncertainty # of replans
AMAN: Uncertainty
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AMAN: Using Uncertainty
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AMAN: Using Uncertainty
M. Tielrooij, et. al (2013) “Supporting arrival management decisions by visualising uncertainty” De Wit, et. al. (2014). “Supporting runway planning by visualizing capacity balances of arriving aircraft streams”
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𝜎𝑡 = �𝑓 𝜎1,𝜎2, . . . ,𝜎𝑛 𝑑𝑑𝑡
0
Predicting Uncertainty
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All flights with condition (x, y, z)
Predicting Uncertainty
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All sets of conditions
Predicting Uncertainty
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Flight Update Message
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- ETA - FLTSTATE - (HoD) - (DoY)
- Format according to standards - Has ARCID, ADEP, ADES, DOF - Inbound EHAM - FPL in first message - Not CNL, DIV, AFL, (CHG,
ACH)
- Last received estimate - WRT ATA
AFTN Extract & filter
Determine ATA
Database
Determine prediction
errors Interpolate
Select common group
Calculate distribution
Store distribution sets
- To fixed ETA values
Determine FLTSTATE
- Use EDEXP FLTSTATE - If not available use DEP
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Flight Update Message
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341757 Flights, 1724658 messages
Number of messages per flight
Message Analysis
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Message Analysis
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Error Analysis
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Error Analysis
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Error Analysos
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Johnson Normal
Error Distributions
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Error Distributions
Prediction Horizon
Flig
ht S
tate
(FI,
SI,
TA, A
A)
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Error Distributions
Prediction Horizon
Flig
ht S
tate
(FI,
SI,
TA, A
A)
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Error Distributions
Scheduled Arrival Time in Original Flight Plan
Flig
ht S
tate
(FI,
SI,
TA, A
A)
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Error Distributions
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Predicting Arrival Time Uncertainty from Actual Flight Information
Maarten Tielrooij [email protected]
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Effects of CDM
CDM
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