Predicted change in global SOA in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow University of California, Berkeley ([email protected]) Daven Henze, Larry Horowitz, Johannes Feddema, Jean- Francois Lamarque, Alex Guenther, Peter Hess, Francis Vitt, Allen Goldstein, Inez Fung, John Seinfeld Chemistry-Climate Working Group, CCSM Workshop June 19, 2007
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Predicted change in global SOA in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral.
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Predicted change in global SOA in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use
change
Colette L. HealdNOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow
Daven Henze, Larry Horowitz, Johannes Feddema, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Alex Guenther, Peter Hess, Francis Vitt, Allen Goldstein, Inez
Fung, John Seinfeld
Chemistry-Climate Working Group, CCSM WorkshopJune 19, 2007
HOW WILL SOA FORMATION RESPOND TO A FUTURE CLIMATE?
Biogenic Emissionsof precursors:T/light/moisture
Anthropogenic Emissions:Increasing aromatic emissionsMore surface area for aerosol condensation
Precipitation:Changes in removal?
Oxidant levels:Affected by
hydrological cycle and anthropogenic
pollution levels
Using a coupled land-atmosphere model
(NCAR CAM-CLM)
Temperature:Reduced production
Anthropogenic Land-use Change:Growth of non-emitters (crops)
MODELING FRAMEWORK
Community Land Model (CLM3)Datasets: Lawrence and Chase [2007]
Feddema et al. [2007]
LAI (MODIS)Plant Functional Types
Soil moistureVegetation Temperature
BVOC Algorithms[Guenther et al., 1995; 2006]
Monterpenes: GEIAIsoprene: MEGAN
Community Atmospheric Model (CAM3)
ChemistryTransportRadiation
BVOC Emissions
VegetationMeteorology
RadiationPrecipitation
SOA production2-product model from oxidation of:1. Monoterpenes [Chung and Seinfeld, 2002]2. Isoprene [Henze and Seinfeld, 2006]3. Aromatics [Henze et al., 2007]
AnthropogenicEmissions,
GHG concentrations,SST
CHANGES IN TOTAL SOA CONCENTRATIONS IN 2100 (A1B) FROM PRESENT-DAY
Surface SOA
Zonal SOA
Δ AnthropogenicEmissions
Δ BiogenicEmissions
Δ Climate
+19%Global Burden +17% ~neutral
CHANGES IN SOA CONCENTRATIONS IN 2100 FROM PRESENT-DAY DUE TO LAND-USE CHANGE (A2)
SOA (TOTAL)BVOC emissions
Feddema et al. [2007] Projections
Expansion of croplands (low BVOC emitters) at the expense of broadleaf trees OVERALL SOA BURDEN: -12%