NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Techno-economic and Market Analysis of Pathways from Syngas to Fuels and Chemicals TC Biomass 2013 – Chicago, Illinois Michael Talmadge, Abhijit Dutta & Richard Bain September 4, 2013
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NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
Techno-economic and Market Analysis of Pathways from Syngas to Fuels and Chemicals
TC Biomass 2013 – Chicago, Illinois
Michael Talmadge, Abhijit Dutta & Richard Bain
September 4, 2013
2
Objective
Assess the economics of producing fuels and chemicals from
biomass-derived synthesis gas.
• Process economics based on literature (consistent TEA assumptions)
• Perform more rigorous TEA on promising pathways
o Biochemical conversion of syngas to ethanol and higher alcohols
o Ethanol and higher alcohols to infrastructure-compatible hydrocarbons
• Simple product market analyses
What can we do with syngas?
3
• Simplified TEA model
• Inputs from literature sources o Feedstock rate and properties (heating value) o Product yields o Operating costs (variable & fixed) o Capital costs
• Common scaling assumptions o Capital scaling exponents o Economies of scale for fixed operating costs
• Operating and financing assumptions for nth plant and pioneer plant
• Minimum Product Selling Price literature values average, standard deviation & 90% confidence intervals
Site development costs 4% of ISBL Installed Capital
Working capital 5% of Fixed Capital Investment
Indirect costs for capital project 60% of Total Direct Costs
Capital equipment capacity scaling exponent 0.70
5
• Internal Rate of Return (IRR): 10% – 25%
• Capital Costs: Pioneer Plant Escalation 210% of nth Plant Estimates (Merrow et al, Rand, 1981)
• Reliability of Operations / On-Stream Factor: Initial value of 0.5 (Merrow et al, Rand, 1981)
Increasing to 0.9 per experience curve (Heinen, SRI Consulting, 2001)
Pioneer Plant Assumptions O
n-St
ream
Fac
tor
Year of Plant Operation
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
~
6
Fuel Pathways Explored
Ethanol & C3+ Alcohols
Hydrocarbons (FT Gasoline, Diesel,
Jet, Lubricants)
Synthetic Natural Gas
Dimethyl Ether (DME)
Syngas
Gasoline (MTG)
Triptyls Olefins (MTO)
Ethanol
Methanol
Syngas Fermentation Butanol
2,3-Butanediol
7
Chemical Pathways Explored
Hydrocarbons (FT Lubes, Waxes)
Acetic Anhydride
Propylene (MTO)
Formaldehyde
Ethylene (MTO)
Hydrogen
Ethyl Acetate
Formic Acid
Methyl Formate
Ethylene Glycol
Acetic Acid
Acetic Acid
Syngas Fermentation
PHA (Polyhydroxyalkanoates)
Syngas
Methyl-Amines
Methanol
Urea
Ammonia
DME Aldehydes (Oxosynthesis)
8
Major Pathway Categories Explored
• Synthetic Natural Gas via Methanation of Syngas
• Ethanol
o Catalytic Mixed Alcohol Synthesis
o Syngas Fermentation *
• Hydrocarbons
o Fischer-Tropsch
o Methanol to Naphtha Hydrocarbons
o Ethanol & Higher Alcohols to Hydrocarbons *
• Hydrogen via Steam Reforming, WGS & Purification
• Methanol via Catalytic Methanol Synthesis
* Pathways explored by NREL through Aspen modeling and rigorous TEA.
9
Synthetic Natural Gas • Methanation of Syngas
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Pricing History
Synthetic Natural Gas 20
11 $
/ M
Scf
Historical Pricing Data Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. U.S. Natural Gas Citygate Price (Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet). Release Date: 7/31/2013.
Process Sources Min. Selling Price Range ($ / MScf)
Syngas to SNG via methanation
McKeough & Kurkela, 2007 Mozaffarian et al, 2004 van der Drift et al, 2005
Average Product per Ton Biomass 11,440 Scf / Ton U.S. Consumption (EIA, 2012) 25.5T Scf / Year
10% of U.S. Natural Gas Market 2.55T Scf / Year Equivalent Biomass Consumption 223 MMTon / Year
Equivalent Biorefineries 310 2,000 Tonne / Day Facilities
29.80 ± 2.10
53.50 ± 5.70
IRR = 10% 25%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
12
Ethanol • Catalytic Mixed Alcohol Synthesis
• Syngas Fermentation *
* Pathways explored by NREL through Aspen modeling and rigorous TEA.
13
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Pricing History
Ethanol via Mixed Alcohol Synthesis
Historical Pricing Data Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. U.S. Total Gasoline Rack Sales Price by Refiners (Dollars per Gallon), EIA Table 5.22 (2011 AEO) and Table 112 (2009 AEO).
Process Sources Min. Selling Price Range ($ / Gal GE)
Syngas to ethanol via catalytic mixed alcohol synthesis
Dutta et al, 2011 Dutta & Phillips, 2009 Dutta et al, 2010 He & Zhang, 2011 Villanueva Perales et al, 2011
nth Plant 2.87 – 4.83
Pioneer 10% IRR 5.67 – 9.64
Pioneer 25% IRR 11.27 – 19.20
2011
$ /
Gal
lon
GE
Pioneer 10% IRR 8.05 ± 2.08
nth Plant 4.16 ± 1.06
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Pricing History
Ethanol via Syngas Fermentation
Historical Pricing Data Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. U.S. Total Gasoline Rack Sales Price by Refiners (Dollars per Gallon), EIA Table 5.22 (2011 AEO) and Table 112 (2009 AEO).
Process Sources Min. Selling Price Range ($ / Gal GE)
Ethanol via syngas fermentation
Putsche,1999 van Kasteren & Verbene, 2005 Piccolo & Bezzo, 2007
nth Plant 3.67 – 5.08
Pioneer 10% IRR 6.11 – 8.99
Pioneer 25% IRR 11.07 – 17.02
2011
$ /
Gal
lon
GE
Pioneer 10% IRR 7.14 ± 1.82
nth Plant 4.32 ± 0.83
15
Ethanol via Syngas Fermentation
NREL TEA Model
• Design Report NREL/TP-5100-51400 utilized as basis through clean compressed syngas from biomass.
• Yield structures based on publications from LanzaTech & INEOS Bio.
• Capital costs for fermenters, seed train and cell recovery developed by Harris Group Inc.
Ethanol
C3+ Alcohols
Acetic Acid
Power
Syngas Cleanup
BiomassGasification
Feed Handling & Preparation
Flue Gas
Woody Biomass
Syngas Fermentation
Seed Train
Product Recovery
Heat Integration, Power Generation & Other Utilities
* Pathways explored by NREL through Aspen modeling and rigorous TEA.
18
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Pricing History
Fischer-Tropsch Hydrocarbons
Historical Pricing Data Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. U.S. Total Gasoline Rack Sales Price by Refiners (Dollars per Gallon), EIA Table 5.22 (2011 AEO) and Table 112 (2009 AEO).
Process Sources Min. Selling Price Range ($ / Gal GE)
Hydrocarbons via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis
Hamelinck et al, 2003 Larson et al, 2009 McKeough & Kurkela, 2007 SRI PEP Yearbook, 2009 Udengaard, 2011 Byrne, 2011 Freeman, 2011
nth Plant 2.52 – 4.19
Pioneer 10% IRR 4.75 – 7.43
Pioneer 25% IRR 9.08 – 13.52
2011
$ /
Gal
lon
GE
Pioneer 10% IRR 5.63 ± 1.53
nth Plant 3.09 ± 0.96
19
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Pricing History
Methanol to Hydrocarbons
Historical Pricing Data Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. U.S. Total Gasoline Rack Sales Price by Refiners (Dollars per Gallon), EIA Table 5.22 (2011 AEO) and Table 112 (2009 AEO).
Process Sources Min. Selling Price Range ($ / Gal GE)
Hydrocarbons via methanol synthesis and methanol conversion
Phillips et al, 2011 Hindman, 2010 SRI PEP Report 191A, 1999 Udengaard, 2011 Jones & Zhu, 2009 Ahn et al, 2009
nth Plant 2.61 – 3.84
Pioneer 10% IRR 4.67 – 6.47
Pioneer 25% IRR 8.61 – 11.38
2011
$ /
Gal
lon
GE
Pioneer 10% IRR 5.37 ± 1.09
nth Plant 3.24 ± 0.81
20
Ethanol & Higher Alcohols to Hydrocarbons
NREL TEA Model
• Ethanol (and higher alcohol) intermediates for hydrocarbon fuel production.
• Eliminates constraints of renewable ethanol blend limits.
• Technology development taking place in academia, national labs and industry.
Co-Product(s)Syngas
CleanupBiomass
Gasification
Feed Handling & Preparation
Flue Gas
Woody Biomass
Alcohol Synthesis
Heat Integration, Power Generation & Other Utilities