Pre-Event Estimate of the Economic Impact of Super Bowl LII on Minneapolis-St. Paul Net Contribution to Jobs, GDP, Wages, & Tax Receipts Prepared for: Minneapolis Super Bowl Host Committee April 2016 Kenneth McGill Managing Director, Rockport Analytics Chief Economist, Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) [email protected]+1 (610) 213-2558
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Pre-Event Estimate of the
Economic Impact of Super
Bowl LII on Minneapolis-St.
Paul
Net Contribution to Jobs, GDP, Wages, & Tax Receipts
Source: University of New Orleans, Coates and Humphreys, UCLA/LA Sports Council, Price waterhouse Coopers, Depken and Wilson, Rishe, Greater Miami Convention and Visitors Bureau, San Diego Citizen’s Task Force, Rockport Analytics Houston SBLI and Minneapolis SBLII are pre-event estimates. Source: Rockport Analytics
“The Super Bowl's economic impact: Super-hype? “ CBS Moneywatch, January 2015
“Is Hosting the Super Bowl Worth It?” U.S. New & World Report, Jan 2016
“Your City Will Never Get Rich Hosting the Super Bowl”, Mother Jones, February 2016
“Super Bowl host cities always lose the money game”, MarketWatch, February 2016
“The NFL’s Super Bowl Con: Hosting the Big Game Isn’t an Economic Score For Cities”, Daily Beast, Jan 2014
• Different authors, methodologies, data integrity -
some more conservative than others
• Estimates vs. Hard Data: Level of cooperation from
NFL, Fox, CBS, ESPN, corporate sponsors, municipal
authorities, etc.
• Time: inflation naturally lifts the value of all visitor &
operations spending
• Relative Cost of Living -MSP’s cost of living is higher
than some other host cities (e.g. Dallas, Indianapolis)
• Minneapolis previously hosted Super Bowl XXVI in
1992 –economic impact estimated @ $176 million
($364 million in today’s dollars)
Miami
New Orleans
Tampa
MSP SBXXVI
Pasadena
Atlanta
Miami
Tempe
New
San Diego
Miami
Atlanta
Tampa
New Orleans
San Diego
Houston
Jacksonville
Detroit
Miami
Phoenix
Miami
Dallas
Indianapolis
New Orleans
New York
Phoenix
MSP SBLII
$150
$250
$350
$450
$550
$650
$750
1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018
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illio
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of
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f To
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DP
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Super Bowl Economic Impact 1989-2018
Source: University of New Orleans, Coates and Humphreys, UCLA/LA Sports Council, Price Waterhouse Coopers, Depken and Wilson, Rishe, Greater Miami Convention and Visitors Bureau, San Diego Citizen’s Task Force, Rockport Analytics * Houston SBLI and Minneapolis SBLII are pre-event estimates. Source: Rockport Analytics
Past studies of game attendee/visitor spending were used to derive likely MSP SB LII outlays on hotel, F&B, rental car, shopping, etc. Estimates of total expected SB visitor volume was derived using stadium capacity, past surveys of game attendee-to-total visitor ratios, and MSP hotel room inventory. Spending per diems were adjusted for: (a) cost-of-living differential between MSP and other host cities and (b) overall inflation by category to 2018.
• Indianapolis, Dallas, New Orleans, and San Diego studies
• Smith Travel Research • Meet Minneapolis • D.K. Shifflet & Associates (DKSA) • US Census Bureau, BLS • Past NFL, Media, & Corporate expenses
Estimate SB-initiated MSP Game & Event Operations Spending
Each major operations entity was estimated using two approaches: (1) imputing MSP using past SB data covering individual line item expenses and (2) direct input from Minneapolis Host Committee’s budget. Organizations include NFL, ESPN, various Corporate sponsors, municipal authorities, NBC, local airport authorities, and local DMOs.
Spending streams for visitors and operations by detailed category are inputted into the latest (2013) IMPLAN economic model of the MSP metropolitan statistical area. Contributions to GDP, jobs, wages, and taxes are estimate by the model. IMPLAN is a non-proprietary model of the regional economy that is widely used by to assess the economic impact of public or private investments.
• IMPLAN (www.implan.com)
Calculate Minnesota & MSP transactional taxes
Taxes directly applicable to visitor & operational transactions are calculated using the categorical spending described above alongside appropriate current tax rates. Exemptions for items identified in the tax law are also factored (e.g. state sales tax on food & clothing)
• Minnesota Department of Revenue • Meet Minneapolis collection of key tourism
taxes and rates
Estimate displaced tourism & calculate net SB LII impact
SB LII will displace regularly occurring tourism during Jan-Feb 2018. This tourism impact was estimated and subtracted from the gross SB LII impact calculations mentioned above towards a net benefit. Displaced tourism was estimated by prorating regular annual tourism spending for the winter season and using past studies to derive the 10-day late Jan-early Feb portion of average spending.
• Meet Minneapolis visitor profile and tourism spending estimates
• DKSA MSP trip budget averages • STR daily hotel activity during SB XLVI • IMPLAN model of MSP