Pragmatical solving of uncertainties on production flow

Pragmatical solving of uncertainties on production flow Daniela Gfu1,2, Mirela Teodorescu 1 Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Computer Science, 16, General Berthelot St., 700483, Iai [email protected] 2 University of Craiova, Center for Advanced Research in Applied Informatics, 13, A.I. Cuza St., 200585, Craiova, Romania ABSTRACT Achieving a high quality product corresponding consumer requirements involves organizing and supportingtheproductionprocesswithasuitableandflexiblelogisticsprocess.Astheprocess/ productionflowisbetterorganized,dividedintosubdomains(production,maintenance,quality),each withclearlydefinedindicatorsandresponsibilities,themoretheprocesswillbemorestable,easierto follow and to intervene on perturbations that can appear. In a stable system disturbance variables can be controlled, thus losses can be reduced. Everybody is looking for "the optimal process", "best method" that would remove the uncertainty, ambiguity, defect, doubt, error. Thisstudyaimstopresentwaysofcorrectingtheuncertaintiesarisinginproductionsystems throughstandardization,communication,wasteawareness,efficientlogistics,statesincertitude interpretation, analysisand performance indicators,applying neutrosophy theory, because aproduct that has several options increases the grade of uncertainty in the manufacturing process.

Keywords: production flow; uncertainty; neutrosophy; logistic; communication procedure; 1. INTRODUCTION Marketisdesignedtoprovideproductstoconsumers,thesameproductisinseveral variants, the consumer has the possibility to choose the desired product according to the quality-price ratio. Of course a quality product is backed by a steady process, a controlledprocess by the errorinpresetlimits,advancedequipmentthatmaintainstability,synergybetweenthe productionprocess,equipmentmaintenance,productqualityassurance,logisticsprocesses, humanresources.Asmorecomplexproductis,alsomanufacturingprocedures,qualitycontrol, equipment maintenance, personal training more complex are.The automotive industry is one of the most complex because one type of product can be manufactured in many variants, body color,color harmony with seats and interior, engine type, gearboxtype,tiretype,mirrorstype,roof...choicesandoptions.Eachoptiongeneratesan uncertainty on the production line, thus having 10 options can produce 2 ** 10 i.e. 1024 versions ofthesamemodelinoneshiftofday.Therearemanyplantsthatconfrontthisproduction volume.This situation requestsan optimal production flow logistic.In principle all plants use the same conceptfor over 100 years, Henry Ford invented andit was improved along time. To see the system disorder it is important to have the same type of indicators, production process standardization, eithermaintenance, or quality, or human resources, or logistics standardization. There are indicators that relate to security and safety work, product quality, production volume,productcosts,maintenance,humanresource,environmentandothers.Theseindicatorsare followed as part of the process of each department integrated as a system. The system is divided into input, output, processing and feedback. By parameters setting, can be determined the target deviations and threats that lead to uncertainties, defects, deviations, errors. 2. LOGISTICS Logisticsisthefieldof studyfocusedonthedesign,control,andimplementationofthe efficient flow and storage of goods and services, and other related information from the point of origin to the point of final consumption with an aim to satisfy the requirements of its existing and prospective customers. Themanagementoflogisticsinvolvestheintegrationofinformation,transportation, inventory, warehousing, material handling, packaging, and often security. Fig. 1 Logisticsmanagementrepresentsthesupplychainmanagementcomponentthatisusedto meetcustomerdemandsthroughtheplanning,controlandimplementationoftheeffective movementandstorageofrelatedinformation,goodsandservicesfromorigintodestination. Logisticsmanagementsupportscompaniestoreduceexpensesandenhancecustomerservice. Logisticsmanagement:understandstheroleoflogisticsinanenterprise;definescustomer service;describeselectronicandotherlogisticsinformationsystems;explainsinventory management;explainsmaterialsmanagementwithspecialreferencetoJapanessesystems; definessupplychainmanagement;explainsmethodsoftransport;illustratesthecalculationof transport cost; illustrates the types and cost of warehousing; explains electronic aids in materials handlingcostandpricedeterminationofpurchases;explainshowlogisticscanbeorganised; explains methods for improving logistics performance; Information System is an applied discipline that studies the processes of the creation, operation,socialcontextsandconsequencesofsystemsthatadministrateinformation.Creationand operationofsuchsystemsrequiresthesub-processesofsystemsanalysis,design,development and management which are bracketed at the beginning. Logistics Information SystemsDesign and implementation of the efficient flow and storage of goodsDesign, development,installment , and application of information system+Unified logistics and InformationSystems Fig. 2 Logisticsisthefieldofstudythatfocusesonthedesignandimplementationofthe efficient flow and storage of goods from the point of origin to consumption. Information System isthefieldofstudytodealwithproblemsagainstthedesign,development,implementation, applicationofinformationsystem.LogisticInformationSystem(LIS)isthedisciplinethat unifies Logistics and Information Systems. Information acts in all logistic functions, holdingthe systems together and coordonating allcomponentsoflogisticsoperations,havingtwomajorcomponents:planningand coordination; operation. Planning/CoordinationOrder processingTransportation and shippingProcurementStrategic objectivesCapacity ConstraintsLogistics requirementsManufactury requirementsProcurement requirementsForecastingInventory deploymentOperationsLogistic information requirementsInventory managementDistribution operationsOrder assignement Fig.3 Theprimarydriversofsupply-chainoperationsarestrategicobjectivesfrommarketing and financial goals. These initiatives detail the nature and location of customers that supply chain tosupportinventory,receivables,facilities,equipment,andcapacityoperationsseektomatchplannedproductsandservices.Thiswillincludecustomerbases,breadthofproducts,services andpromotions.Thefinancialaspectofstrategicplandetailsresourcesthatarerequired (Farahani,Rezapour, Kardar, 2011). Capacityconstraintsidentifymanufacturingandmarketdistributionlimitation,barriers, or bottlenecks. It also helps to identify when specific manufacturing or distribution work should beoutsourced.Theoutputofcapacityconstraintplanningistime-phasedobjectivesthatdetail and schedule facility utilization, financial resources, and human requirements. For each product capacity plans determine the where, when and how much for production, storage, and movement. Usinginputsformforcasting,promotionalscheduling,customerorders,andinventorystatus, logistic requirements identify the specific work facilities, equipment, and labour forces required tosupportthestrategicplan.Logisticrequirementsmustbeintegratedwithbothcapacity constraints and manufacturing requirements to achieve the best performance. Inventorydeploymentinterfaceswithinventorymanagementbetweenplanningand coordinating and operations as shown in Fig.3, (Farahani,Rezapour, Kardar, 2011) . Thedeploymentplandetailsthetimingofwhereinventorywillbepositionedto efficientlymoveinventorythroughthesupplychain.Fromtheinformationperspective, deployment specifieswhat, where, and when actions are appropriate for the logistics processes. Inventorymanagementisperformedfromadaytodaybasis.Manufacturingrequirements determine planned schedules. The traditional deliverable is a statement of time phased inventory requirementthatisusedtodrivemasterproductionscheduling(MPS)andmanufacturing required planning (MRP). The involvement of logistics leads to satisfying the client and reducing costs. In order to accomplishthisperformance,itisrecommendedtousefourorganizingprinciples,namely: knowingandacceleratingtheflowsofinformation;knowingandacceleratingtheflowsof products;knowingandcomplyingwiththemutualcommitments;knowingandmanagingthe risks (Dima, Vladutescu, 2012). Thepointsofviewregardingtheevaluationoflogisticsaroundtheassessmentare:the components which logistics acts upon; the suggestion of a modality of action; the four logistical subsystems; the three possible levels of action; the size of the logistical family in the company; the logistical organization in the company. Fig. 4 Takingintoaccountthecommercialevolutions,thethreecomponents(dimensions)ofthe operational management can be highlighted, which logistics is based upon, such as: management oftheflowsnecessaryforansweringtotheintensificationofthecommercialexchanges;the managementoftheinterfacesusedforrespondingtotheproblemsoccurredandcreationof networks; the management of for sustaining the product, having as aim the improvement of the service at the client (Fig. 4), (Dima, Vladutescu, 2012). 3. LEAN MANUFACTURING Inordertogathertheproductionsystemtools/elementsandprocessestosupportalean manufacturingenvironmentwehavetotakeintoconsiderationthreekindofaspects:physical, operationalandcultural.Logisticshasanimportantrolefor:safety,sign-insheet, objectives/observations,evaluation,housekeeping,agenda,parkinglot,groundrules(Dima, Vladutescu, 2012). Groundrulessupposestartandstopontime,beopenmindedandhonest,one conversationatatime,takeresponsibilityforyourself,norankinclass,everyoneisentitledto theirownopinion,challengeyourownpersonalthinking,therearenodumbquestions. Objectives/outcomes suppose that the participants to be able to have a general understanding of theValueStreamMappingProcess,toidentifythe7wastes,understandwhatpolicydeployis andhowitaffectseveryone,tohaveageneralunderstandingofwhatisaMasterSchedule (Tenescu, Teodorescu, 2014). Formany,leanisthesetof"tools"thatassistintheidentificationandsteadyeliminationof waste(Teodorescu,Gifu,Ionescu,2014).Ifthewastesareeliminated,thequalityimprove productiontimeandcostsarereduced.Toaccomplishthisgoalareimplementedmany procedures,methods,rulessuchas:ValueStreamMapping(methodforanalyzingthecurrent stateanddesigningafuturestatefortheseriesofeventsthattakeaproductorservicefromits beginning through the customer),5S (a list of operations: Sort, Systematize, Shine, Standardize, Self-discipline),Kanban(schedulingsystemforleanandjust-in-time(JIT)production),poka-yoke (error proofing, active involvement by workers in trouble shooting and problem solving to improvequalityandeliminatewaste),TotalProductiveMaintenance(aconcepttoincreasethe productivityofplantandequipment),onepieceflow,smallbatchproduction,synchronizedto shippingschedules,defectpreventionratherthaninspectionandrework,productionplanning drivenbycustomerdemand,teambasedworkorganizationswithmultiskilledoperators empoweredtomakedecisionsandimproveoperations,closeintegrationofthewholevalue stream:supplier&customer(WomackJamesP,DanielT.Jones,2003;Tenescu&Teodorescu, 2014 ). Leanculture.Atraditionalorganizationischaracterizedbytopdownmanagement,weak feedback,poorownershipandinitiative,limitedimprovementactivity,dilutedcommunication, narrow roles and responsibilities, poor utilization of resources while a lean organization, affects wholeorganization,nonvaluesupportsvalueadd,twowaycommunication,rolesand responsibilitiesareclearandbroad,improvementdrivenbyalllevels,workgroupfocuseson internal improvements (Dima, Vladutescu, 2012; Tenescu, Teodorescu, 2014). Lean is a culture of continuous improvement practiced at every level of the organization and by every team, lean means respect for people,lean is the elimination of waste in all its forms, lean is add value to your customers, lean is a work environment that assures the quality and safety of allworkforbothclientsandstaff,leanisafocusonimprovingtheworkprocessandnoton blamingpeopleorcreatingfear,leanisacultureofteamwork,sharingresponsibility,leanisa culture that returns the joy to work, lean is flow,from beginning to end without interruption.Fundamental concepts of lean manufacturing Fig. 5 Step 1.IdentifyValue: in Lean Production, the value of a product is defined solely by end user customer, the product must meet the customers needs at both a specific time and price, to view valuethroughtheeyesofthecustomerrequiresmostcompaniestoundergodifficultand comprehensivereorganizationofpeople,theirmindsetandbehaviorsandbusinessprocesses, specifyingvalueininterpersonalrelationshipmeanssimplytounderstandthewantsand expectationsofthepeoplethatweinteractwith(Dima,Vladutescu,2012;Teodorescu,Gifu, Ionescu, 2014; Tenescu, Teodorescu, 2014). Step 2. Mapthe ValueStream: identifyingthe value in lean production means to understand all theactivities required to producea specific product, and then to optimize the whole process fromtheviewoftheend-usercustomer,identifyingthevaluestreaminindividualorgroup behavior means to understand what people do and why they do it (Tenescu, Teodorescu, 2014). Step3.CreateFlow:Inleanproductionmeanstoprocesspartscontinuously,fromraw materials to finished goods, one operation or one piece at a time; In behavioral context means to behave in a manner thatminimizes or eliminates delays or stoppages in the work performed by others. Step4.EstablishPull:theconceptofpullinleanproductionmeanstorespectthepull,or demand,ofthecustomer;inbehavioralcontextmeanstorecognizethatpeopleoperateunder many different mental models which requires us to adjust our style or approach often; forecasting thebehaviorsofothersispurewastebecauseitistimeconsumingandofteninaccurate,and shouldthusbeeliminated.Practicingleanbehaviorsreducesambiguityandre-workin interpersonal relationships (Tenescu, Teodorescu, 2014). Step5.SeekPerfection:inleanproductionmeansthatthereareendlessopportunitiesfor improving the utilization of all types of assets; in behavioral context means to takeadvantage of thetransparencybroughtaboutbythefirstfourstepsinordertomoreeasilyidentifyand eliminate behaviors that donot create value (Bob Emiliani,2008). Lean implementation is therefore focused on getting the right things to the right place at the right timeintherightquantitytoachieveperfectworkflow,whileminimizingwasteandbeing flexible and able to change. The flexibility and ability to change are within bounds and not open-ended, and therefore often not expensive capability requirements. More importantly, all of these conceptshavetobeunderstood,appreciated,andembracedbytheactualemployeeswhobuild the products and therefore own the processes that deliver the value (Mark Rosenthal , 2002).The culturalandmanagerialaspectsofleanarepossiblymoreimportantthantheactualtoolsor methodologiesofproductionitself.Therearemanyexamplesofleantoolimplementation without sustained benefit, and these are often blamed on weak understanding of lean throughout the whole organization. Valueadded=processesthatchangetheproductfit,form,functiontomeetcustomer specifications; work that customer is willing to pay for (Teodorescu, Gifu, Ionescu, 2014). Waste=theelementofproductionthataddsnovaluetotheproduct,addingonlycostand/or time; work that the customer is not willing to pay for. The original seven wastes are: Transport (moving products that are not actually required to perform the processing) Inventory (all components, work in process and finished product not being processed) Motion(peopleorequipmentmovingorwalkingmorethanisrequiredtoperformthe processing) Waiting(waitingforthenextproductionstep,interruptionsofproductionduringshift change) Overproduction (production ahead of demand) Over processing (resulting from poor tool or product design creating activity) Defects (the effort involved in inspecting for and fixing defects),(Womack, Jones, 2003; Tenescu, Teodorescu, 2014) 4. MAINTENANCE INDICATORS Inautomaticalsystemsequipmentsoperatesincyclestimedefinedassumofstatus:Cycling time,Starvedtime,Blockedtime,Waitingauxparttime,Waitingattentiontime,Repairin progress time, Emergency stop time, Bypass time, Tool change time, Setup time, Break time, No comunications,Fig.6.ThesestatusesaredefinedinPLCforprocessanalyseandevaluation. Related on these statuses are proceeded also the maintenance indicators. Fig. 6 The OEE is measured as : (Availability)*(Performance)*(Quality) Where: Availability: The portion of the OEE Metric that represents the percentage of scheduled time that the operation is available to operate. Often is referred as Uptime. Performance:TheportionoftheOEEMetricthatrepresentsthespeedatwhichthe Work Center runs as a percentage of its designed speed. Quality:TheportionoftheOEEMetricthatrepresentstheGoodUnitsproducedasa percentage of the Total Units Started.Definitionofafailure:Afailureisdeclaredwhentheequipmentdoesnotmeetitsdesired objectives. Therefore, we can consider any equipment that cannot meet minimum performance or availability requirements to be failed. Similarly, a return to normal operations signals the end of downtime or system failure, is consideredto be non-failed. Mean Time to Repair (MTTR): This is the mean time the facility is in the status of Repair. Calculation: MTTR = Repair in Progress Time(min) / Repair in Progress Occurrences. Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF): This shows the amount of time the machine spends in production time as a percentage of all the states except Break and No Communications. Calculation: MTBF = (Time in Auto / Total Time) x 100 WhereTimeinauto=CyclingTime+BlockedTime+StarvedTime+WaitingAuxiliaryTime+ Bypass Time andTotal Time = Cycling Time + Blocked Time + Starved Time + Waiting Auxiliary Time + Bypass Time + Tool Change Time + Waiting Attention Time + Shutdown Time + Emergency Stop Time + Set Up TimeFailure MetricsTime to repairTime to failureTime between failuresProcessSystem failure ResumeProcess Operations System failure Fig. 7 Aprocessisstablewhenthereisnovariabilityinthesystem,whentheoutcomeisby design,asexpected.Thesystemsvariationwearetalkingaboutinthisstudyrefersto uncertainty, confusion that can occur in various situations in the manufacturing process so that, it willleadtoanotherproductthanexpectedoneorascrap.Theorythatmanageuncertainty, neutrality was developed by F. Smarandache, professor of mathematics at the University of New Mexico and is named Neutrosophy. Ithastobementionedthatintime,neytrosophyevolutionlookslike:Zadehintroduced the degree of membership/truth (t) in 1965; Atanassov introduced the degree of nonmembership /falsehood(f)in1986;Smarandacheintroducedthedegreeofindeterminacy/neutrality(i)as independent component in 1995 (published in 1998). Neutrosophyasananalyticalstudy,isrelatedtomultiple-valuedlogicbecauseatone momentoneshowsthatastatementwasprovedtruebyaphilosopherXwhereaslatter anotherphilosopherYprovedtheoppositestatementwastrue.Therefore,both and were true. {Whence one can deduce that both and could be false.} Evenmore,usinganeutrosophicinterpretation,onecouldsaythatotherideasinbetween andandrelatedtothem,notedby,couldbetrueaswell.Thisrelatesto dialetheism, which saysthat some contradictions are true, to paraconsistent logic, tointuitionist logic,tillneutrosophiclogic(where,,andideasinbetweenthembelongingto could all be true or partially true) (Smarandache, 2005). Inaprocess,practicallycanoccursuchsituationswhenweareputinapositionof uncertainty that leads to the process variation by instability, by errors. Below are presented two methods of analysis, evaluation and correction of the process: the Ishikawa diagrams and Pareto chart.Ishikawadiagrams(alsocalledfishbonediagrams,cause-and-effectdiagrams)arecausal diagrams created by Kaoru Ishikawa (1968) that shows the causes of a specific event (Womack, James P, Daniel T. Jones, and Daniel Roos,1990; Holweg, Matthias 2007). Common uses of the Ishikawadiagramareproductdesignandqualitydefectprevention,toidentifypotentialfactors causing an overall effect. Each cause or reason for imperfection is a source of process variation. Causesareusuallygroupedintomajorcategoriestoidentifythesesourcesofvariationsuchas: people, methods, machines, materials, measurements, environment (Ishikawa, Kaoru, 1976). Relatedtothesecategoriescanbeextendedtodetaileditemslikeanyoneinvolvedwiththe process,howtheprocessisperformedandthespecificrequirementsfordoingit,policies, procedures,rules,regulationsandlaws,anyequipment,computers,tools,etc.requiredto accomplish the job, raw materials, parts, pens, paper, etc. used to produce the final product , data generated from the process that are used to evaluate its quality, the conditions, such as location, time,temperature,andcultureinwhichtheprocessoperates(Juran,J.M.,&Gryna,F.M. (1970). Fig. 8 Paretoanalysis isastatisticaltechniqueindecision-makingusedfortheselectionofalimited number of tasks that produce significant overall effect. It uses the Pareto Principle (also known as the 80/20 rule) the idea that by doing 20% of the work you can generate 80% of the benefit of doing the entire job. How to use the Pareto charts Step1:Identifyandlistproblemsthatoccurinmanufacturingprocesswiththehighest frequency and concern the process. Step 2: Identify the root cause of each problem for each issue it is important to identify the fundamental cause. The used methods can be: Brainstorming, 5 Whys, Cause and effect analysis, and Root cause analysis. Step 3: Score problems scoring each problem depends on the sort of problem that it has to be solved, for quality, safety, efficiency, cost. Step4:Groupproblemstogetherbyrootcausesimilarlyproblemsbelongtothesame group. Step 5: Add up the scores for each group assign scores to each group of problems.Step6:Takeactionisthemomenttodealwiththetoppriorityproblem,groupofproblems and also the purpose that you want (Montgomery, 1985). Pareto Chart45.45%67.27%81.82%90.91%96.36%100.00%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%120.00%051015202530Procedures errorsBad parts Missing partsOperators errorsEquipment faultOthersFrequencyRelative frequency %Cumulated frequency % Fig. 9 Inthisexampletherearefewissuesthatappearinprocess.ExaminingOperators errorswecanmakethedecisionthathumanerrorscanbediminishedbyanITapplication, automatisation,toreducehumandecision.Itistruethatinaprocessinwhichcanappear confusionofchoicingtheappropriatepart(forexamplebetweenleftandright),itcangenerate errors.Automatisationofprocesscanavoidhumanerror,sustainedbyappropriateIT applications,andons,operatorstraining.Analysingacausethatgenerates20%oferrors,and eliminate it by investing in process, it can solve 80% of issues. TheemergenceofRFID(RadioFrequencyIdentification)technologyhasbeengreatly increased efficiency in the production process management, material flow management, logistics andtransport,retailanddistribution,andotherfieldsofthenationaleconomyindustries, including electronic information industry. RFID may eventually replace the ubiquitous bar code inthefutureandbecomethemaintechnologyinlogisticsandsupplychainmanagementfield (Singer, 2006). Comparedwiththepopularbarcodetechnology,electronictaghasmanyadvantages: omittingthemanualcontrol,waterproofing,antimagnetic,bearingthehightemperature,along service life and widereading distance. Moreover, on theelectronic label,data mayencrypt, the storagecapacityisbigandthecanneddatacanbechanged.Thus,ithaswiderandmore convenientapplicationthanthebarcode.ThepopularizationandtheapplicationofRFIDwill bring revolutionary changes to the retail and logistics industry. AutomotiveindustryusesRFIDadvantagesinproductionflow,inautomaticalprocess for safety and security of manufacturing management. CONCLUSIONS Accordingtothereasontohaveastableprocess,accuracyproducts,efficiencyflowof theprocessitisimportanttosolvetheuncertaints,alltypesandfromallplaces.Applying organizationalmethodssuchasleanmanufacturing,standardizationofindicatorsorIT technologyareonlyfewsamples.Eachproducerhasitsownmethodtoimplementimproving conceptsderivedfromabovementioned.TPS(ToyotaProductionSystem)isthebasically concept, based on principles such as continuous improvement, respect for the people, long-term philosophy, the right process will produce the right results, add value in organization, continuous solving root problems drives organizational learning. Reference [1]RezaZanjiraniFarahani, ShabnamRezapour, LalehKardar,LogisticsOperationsand Management: Concepts and Models, 2011 Elsevier Inc. 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