ppt 3 - Real-world population calamities in 'open-space' conditions

Real-worldpopulation calamities

in

seemingly “empty” environments?

(… possible implications for us…? )

Imagine a real-worldpopulation of organisms

surrounded by ‘vastamounts of open-space’

in surroundingsthat remain 99.998%

unoccupied

and which, visually-speaking, appears to remain

almost entirely empty

2/1000ths

of one percent

For the population in the above tiny white dot, the moment in time depicted

here was already “too-late”

End of part two

One must read population articles and graphs CAREFULLY

Some authors and websites, for example, invite their readers to assume that it is permissible to present a graph of human population growth as an “s-curve”

One must examine such graphs CAREFULLY, however.

For if we do so, we will notice that some authorscommonly do not BEGIN their graphs until

some recent decade such as the 1950s or 1970s

and then extend them several decades into the futureon the basis of their own

…bring them up to the present…

hopes, wishes, guesstimates, and suppositions

We note, however, that in SCIENCE it is not generally permissible to

OMIT

9,000 years of population data

in order to “force-fit” one’s data into a morepreferable theoretical outcome

It is possible and disquieting that the real-world worldwide human

population numbers that actually emerge

could turn out to be

than the contemplated medium-fertility U.N. estimates

shown here

very much larger

Although U.N. “medium-fertility”projections suggest trajectories toward

10 or 11 billion by the end of this century

Unexpected advances inlife-extension or unexpected

declines in mortality

or if worldwide fertility levelsstall or turn out to be just

½ child per womanhigher

than the U.N.’s“medium-fertility” estimates

Six-fold life-extensions have already been achieved in laboratory organisms

And an equivalent extension in humans would result in healthy, active 500-year-olds

We could find ourselves headed toward

by the end of this century

(as shown in this graph)

15.8billion

Even tiny fractional such extensions in hum

ans would toss

current U.N

. population projections right out the window

And since we are now beyond seven billion and

may be headed toward10, 11, 12, 13, 14, or 15.8

billion this century

and since each one ofour billions is

a truly enormousnumber (see appendix)

Some suggest that statistically-speaking, our “rate” of growth is “slowing” down.

There a potentially-calamitous “untruth” concealed in such assertions, however.

Response 1:

1981 – On a worldwide basis our population is growing larger at 80 million extra persons per year

2011 – On a worldwide basis our population is growing larger at 83 million extra persons per year

Imagine that you are on a bus headed off a cliff at 80 km/hr. The driver, however, who is a statistician, seeks to reassure you by informing you that

although the bus is now closer to the cliff and is now headed off the cliff at 83 km/hr, the ‘RATE’, he says, of increasingly heading off the cliff is “slowing

down” and is on a trajectory that could result in eventual stabilization

Quite reassuring, isn’t it?

Earth’s natural systems and life-support machinery might beforgiven, perhaps, for not considering that to be “slowing down?”

Response 2:

Back in 1981, Earth’s biospheric life-support machinery was being assaulted, damaged, and eradicated by roughly 4.5 billion persons supplemented by approximately 80 million extra persons per year

Since then, our worldwide totals have grown to more than 7 billion and our assaults, damages, and eradications are now being amplified and supplemented by 83 million extra persons per year

It is the fault of those silly natural systems, however, for never having taken a statistics course, isn’t it?

Otherwise, if they were so smart, they might realize that all of the damageand eradications that they think they are experiencing are just temporary

illusions?

Notice that these graphs are quintessential

examples of J-curves

(one of the most dangerous types of graphs in the world)

and since earth’s planetary carrying

capacity for amodern industrialized

humanity is onthe order of

TWO billion or less

There is a widely-held misperception within our societies that human population growth and overpopulation cannot be truly

serious so long as “vast amounts of open space”appear to remain theoretically-available

Key Ideas so far

Real-world examples of Climb-and-collapse in population systems

Collapse can and does occur in environments that appear to be almost entirely empty (.. less than 2/1000ths of one percent ..)

Real-world examples of 99% - plus die-offs

A graph of human population growth over the past two centuries appears to be both more-pronounced and more extreme than those seen in either of the cited reindeer examples

Part two– Key Ideas

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One would hope that we are collectively smarter thana mindless population of one-celled dinoflagellates

Given the current demographic challenge that these numbers

represent

(and with up to our 10th to 15th billions on-track to arriveby the end of this century)

that routinely show themselves capable of calamity while

occupyingless than 2/1000ths of 1% of the volume in which the population

sample resides

Invoking sobriety, however,we may actually be following

a trajectory that has aworrisome similarity to that

of the dinoflagellates

because our own species, like the red-tide dinoflagellates of marinehabitats, releases chemical wastes and toxins into our surroundings

Worse still, from at least one point of view, however, we may actually be on a

trajectory that is worse than thatof the dinoflagellates

and multiple orders of magnitude worse at that

for each dinoflagellate cell releases ONLY itsmetabolic and biological wastes into its surroundings

In our own case, however, we release not only our biological and

metabolic wastes

but also an unprecedented daily avalanche of societal and industrial

wastes that are worldwidein scope

and amplified by ourever-growing numbers

and increasing industrialization

Dinoflagellate red-tides are quintessential examples of population calamities arising from the release of wastes Dinoflagellate red-tide calamities, however, arise from their release of cellular and metabolic wastes into their surroundings

Because our own species also releases wastes into its surroundings,we may be following a trajectory that is provocatively similar to thatof an outbreak of dinoflagellate red-tide

1

2

3

Reviewing Several Key Ideas

Except, of course, our own species supplements its biological and cellular wastes with a daily worldwide avalanche of industrial and societal wastes

(A behavior that no other animals on earth exhibit – and has never previously happened in the entire history of the earth)

And lastly, while deadly outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide are localized events, our own population outbreak is a worldwide phenomenon and worldwide in its effects

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5

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Reviewing Several Key Ideas

Lastly, but not least, there are these

two graphsof our demographics

which are verymuch like

J-curves on steroids

Policymakers, academia, and the world’s rising generations of ‘Under-20s’ should accord

emergency-scale attention to these numbers

J-curves…

Biologically-speaking, anything even approaching

15.8 billion constitutes the demographic equivalent

of a collision trajectory with a near-earth asteroid

First, five additional billions in less than one human lifetime

since 1930

with the potential arrivals of billionsnumbers 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15(and 800 million more after that)

due by the end of this century

on a planet whose biospheric machinery was already beingdamaged at levels of five billion and six billion in 1987 and 1999

and whose planetary carrying capacity for a modern,industrialized humanity is on the order of two billion or less

sheer physical damageand eradication

alsoremembering the

levels of

that we inflict all around the world

We also suggest the PowerPoint shown below