Powertrain Strategies for the 21 Century: Economy Demands2. Conventional powertrains – Game over ? Diesel Systems. The Oil Party is nearly over. Peak Oil Beyond Oil. Crude Oil Extraction

1 DS/ENS-NA | 07/12/2011 | 1185_163 | © 2011 Robe rt Bosch LLC and affilia te s . All rights re se rved.

Diese l Sys tems

Alexander Fre itagDirector Engineering Sys tems Development Robert Bosch LLC

Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century:Facing the Challenge of Dramatic Fuel Economy Demands

The Past – Present – Future of Clean Diesel

2

Conventional powertra ins – Game over ?

Diese l Sys tems

The Oil Party is nearly overPeak Oil Beyond Oil

Cru

de O

il E

xtra

ctio

n

Exa

Jou

le/a

Year

Odell

Campbell

Medium Scenario

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

D/ENS-NA | 07.12.2011 | 1185_163.ppt © 2011 Robe rt Bosch LLC and affilia te s . All rights re se rved.

3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2008 2012 2020

ICE (gasoline / diesel)

EV and PHEV

Hybrid Vehicles (HEV)

Others (FlexFuel, CNG, LPG)

volu

mes

[mio

. veh

icle

s]

4.8

3,0

4.2

*)

7082

103

0.60.002

7.21.90.3

9.4 10.2

6.03.0

19.2

New powertrains: Estimated world market volumes

Internal Combustion Engines will remain the predominant power train for the near futureDiesel Systems

D/ENS-NA | 07.12.2011 | 1185_163.ppt © 2011 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.

Conventional powertrains – Game over ?



Diesel Systems

Agenda

The FUTURE of Clean Diesel

The PAST of Clean Diesel

The PRESENT of Clean Diesel



Diesel Systems

The PAST-PRESENT-FUTURE of Clean Diesel

1897 1912 1930 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 2009/102006



Diesel Systems

Agenda






Diesel Systems

Consumer Consideration Index

Steady Increase in Consumer Consideration of Clean Diesel Technology

Source: CNW Research

Would you purchase a clean diesel ?

13% 14%

17%20%

23%24% 25% 25%

28% 29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11



Diesel Systems

Clean Diesel Technology achieved Take-Rate of > 30% in less than 2 years

Source: POLK Registration Data

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-

09Fe

b-09

Mar

-09

Apr-

09M

ay-0

9Ju

n-09

Jul-0

9Au

g-09

Sep-

09O

ct-0

9N

ov-0

9D

ec-0

9Ja

n-10

Feb-

10M

ar-1

0Ap

r-10

May

-10

Jun-

10Ju

l-10

Aug-

10Se

p-10

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec

-10

Jan-

11Fe

b-11

Mar

-11

Apr-

11

Cle

an D

iese

l Tak

e-R

ate

[%]

BMW X5 BMW 335d Audi A3 Audi Q7MB GL350 MB ML350 MB R350 MB E350Jetta Sedan Jetta Wagen Touareg GolfAvg. Trend

Clean Diesel Take-Rate PC/LD

Source: Polk

12%

34%



Diesel Systems

Alternative Powertrain Comparison

Clean Diesel Technology on par with other alternative Powertrains

Source: Polk / Edmunds

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Audi A3TDI

Audi Q7TDI

VW GolfTDI

VW JettaSE/SW TDI

VWTouareg

TDI

FordFusionHybrid

ToyotaHighlander

Hybrid

HondaCivic Hybrid

NissanAltimaHybrid

VWTouaregHybrid

12 PC/LD Models Average Take Rate : 30%

26 Models Average Take Rate : 5%*

Average Premium Paid for Advanced Technology Vehicle in NA (2010)

Diese l: 2,700 USD Hybrid: 6,300 USD

*Not incl. hybrid/e lectric only vehicles e .g. Toyota Prius , Chevy Volt, e tc.

10

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

1st year 2nd year 3rd year 1st year 2nd year 3rd year

Tota

l Life

cycl

e C

ost

Gasol ine Clean Diesel

DS/ENS-NA | 07/12/2011 | 1185_163 | © 2011 Robe rt Bosch LLC and affilia te s . All rights re se rved.


Diesel Systems

Total Cost of Ownership [TCO]

Clean Diesel offers TCO benefits (payback) in less than 18 months

Source: Carnegie Mellon University

3600 USD

Light Duty Passenger Car Medium Duty Pick Up Truck

3100 USD



Diesel Systems

Clean Diesel Launch Calendar

Clean Diesel Models will more than double within less than 3 years

Source: Bosch



Diesel Systems

Agenda






Diesel Systems

Powertrain diversification for Today and the Future

EV /range extender

EV / fuel cell

EV / battery EV (battery /fuel cell)

diesel

alternative fuels

hybrid

1997 2010 2015

gasoline

diesel

gasoline

diesel

alternativefuels

hybrid

dual fuel

gasoline

EV /range extender

?Variety of Technical solution needed to address energy reduction

14Diese l Sys tems

S tra tegies for T2B2/SULEV: Enhanced EGTN

MH

C [m

g/m

i]

Available vehicles already signific. below T2B5, measures for achieving T2B2 definedNOx [mg/mi]

0 20 140 1600

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90100

40 60 80 100 120 180

Tier2Bin5Full useful life

200

Tier2Bin5 Base:

EU5/6 Low NOx-Combustion+ Efficient DeNOx

Current Tier2Bin5 applications

w/ Bosch Common Rail

Tier2Bin2 (SULEV)


Full System Approach Required


Presenter

Presentation Notes

Key messages: Basis (red dots): Current U.S. Clean Diesel applications for T2B5 (BMW, AUDI, VW, DAI) T2B2 target box: main challenge is NOx, but also NMHC has to be cut by more than half 2 major contributes: Enhance efficiency of NOx EGT see measures named in box Support by reduction of engine-out HC see named measures in EU6/ EU7-discussion Only verbally: - Hint from Graham Hoare Hoare requests detailed explanation for the audience.

15Diese l Sys tems

Air Management

Swirl-/Throttle Valve

Turbo Charger/VGT*

Exhaust gas management Fas t Cata lys t Light-Off

(reduce thermal losses )

Diese l Particula te Filte r

NOx s torage ca ta lys t

Cata lys ts t temp control

Fuel Injection System New Genera tions Multiple Injections Reduced Tolerance Optimized Nozzle

Tolerance Reduction

Zero Fuel Calibra tion Fuel Balancing Control

Individual Cylinder Control

Optimizing the Diese l Sys tem Combustion Process Reduction of

compress ion ra tio Partly homogenous

combus tion



*VGT= Variable Geometry Turbo

Presenter

Presentation Notes

This might sound inappropriate for people who still base their perception of Diesel on what was unsuccessfully launched some 20 years ago. But today’s modern clean Diesel has with this misperception nothing in common any more.

16

SCR

DO

C

cDPF

AdBlue Dosing

NSC

DO

C

cDPF

HC Dosing

DO

C

cDPF

HC Dosing

DO

C

AdBlue Dosing

SCR

1

NS

C

cDPF

AdBlue Dosing

SCR2

3

4

+-

Improved se ries technology

Needs enhanced hea t up, FE , GHG

+

-

Add HC and NOx buffe r for low tempera tureComplex control s tra tegy required

+

-

Promises good low tempera ture e fficiencyPerformance depends only on therma lcritica l NSC (LNT)

+-

Promises robus tness and high e fficiencyComplex and expens ive

Sys tem Approaches for FTP SULEV compliance

Different approaches are investigated to indentify the best solution Diesel Sys tems



NSC= NOx S torage Cata lys tcDPF=coated Diese l Particula te Filte rDOC=Diese l Oxidation Cata lys tSCR=Selective Cata lys t Reduction

17Diesel Sys tems

Potentia l of Close-Coupled SCR

-

Exh

aust

Gas

Tem

p. [°

C]

0

100

200

300

400

Elapsed Time of NEDC [sec]0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Vehicle:• 4,700 lbsEngine:• EURO4-compliant

base engine• “conv. combustion

system”• 2.2 l 4-cylinder • 110 kW @ 4,000rpmBOSCH DNOX3.1

Close-coupled SCR yields to a significant improvement in NOx conversion due to higher SCR temperatures.

55 %

85 %



18Diese l Sys tems

S tra tegies for T2B2/SULEV: Current S ta tus

Improvements required:More thermally stable catalyst and more precise temperature control

After (thermal) life time aging: fa iled Thermal s tres s (high tempera ture due to DPF regenera tion & desulphuriza tion) causes aging of ca ta lys ts Need be tte r control of thermal events to prevent aging -> Model based temp monitoring

NS

C

cDPF

AdBlue Dosing

SCR

NM

HC

+ N

Ox

[mg/

mi]

de -greened life time aging(the rmal s tre ss )

NMHC NOx

0

20

40

70

80

10

50

60

30

FTP75

Example : PC, approx. 3750 lbs Results of Bosch SULEV Study (9.2010)

SULEV targe t met w/ degreened (low mileage) components



Presenter

Presentation Notes

Key messages: Out of feasible set-ups for NOx EGT, Bosch currently concentrated on set-up NSC – cDPF and SCR. IMPORTANT: Not as expensive as expected: Combines EU-solution (close-coupled NSC replaces DOC) w/ T2B5 (!) SCR-approach Status: de-greened EGT-system able to fulfil T2B2 target = NMHC + NOX less than 30 mg/mi, Aged EGT-system (approx. 120.000 mi) exceeds target� further measures to enhance thermal robustness needed see next slide Back-up info: life time aging significantly dependent on temperature control strategy. In diagram: assuming linear aging process, NMHC + NOX T2B2 target would be exceeded after approx. 30.000 mi. Only verbally: This MIGHT be an opportunity to better understand OEM’s willingness to apply GCS (Glow Plug Combustion Sensor). Even 1 sensor per bank could be very beneficial to reduce tolerances and thus e.g. define an engineering target closer to the 30 mg limit. Questions from Graham Hoare: Q: Ammonia slip: This is not an issue in the US since there is no legislation, while in EU6 (CV) there is a limit of 10ppm. What is Bosch’s recommendation on meeting this target? Ford wants to avoid expensive Ammonia sensor. A: - For all PC and CV with SCR: NOx sensor is mandatory for OBD compli-ance NOx Sensor + Bosch EDC Function (dosing quantity adaptation) is the recommended technology. No need for ammonia sensor for slip detection.�- Comment: Ammonia limit mentioned by GH, is only valid for CV-EU6 legislation: 10 ppm (as an average concentration via the cycle). �(The CV limit might serve as orientation value for PC applications).

19Diesel Sys tems

1000 2000 3000 4000

BM

EP [b

ar]

0

5

10

15

20

N [1/min]1000 2000 3000 4000

Engine Speed [rpm]1000 2000 3000 4000

BM

EP [b

ar]

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Engine Speed [rpm]1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

500500

500400 400

400300300

300270 270

270

230

230230

210

220

220

240 240

240

Fuel Consumption in g/kWh

BM

EP [b

ar]

0

5

10

15

20

Engine Speed [rpm]1000 2000 3000 4000

NOX

CO HC

Soot

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

eHybrid Drive Advantage

The Hybrid: Not only a Gasoline Alternative


20

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

Sta

te o

f Cha

rge

in W

h

Full Test (NEDC)Split Test (UDC + EUDC)

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200Time in s

Cum

ulat

ive

CO

2 Em

issi

on(p

er c

ent o

f con

venc

tiona

l)

Conventional VehicleHybrid - Full TestHybrid - Split test

Hybrid Technology Potentia l

Diesel Sys tems

UDC EUDC

(per

cen

t of c

onve

ntio

nal*

)

* Basis: CO2 Emission in gof Conventional Vehicle in NEDC

CO2 emission reductionby combining urbanwith extra urban driving

Split Test:Battery balance is also forced at the end of UDC

Vehicle Speed

~20 % CO2 reduction


NEDC=New European Driving CycleUDC=Urban Driving CycleEUDC=Extra Urban Driving Cycle



Diesel Systems

Clean Diesel Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential

Significant Potential in Greenhouse Gas reduction expected from Clean Diesel

CO

2re

duct

ion

Evolution

29%

Extr

eme

Dow

nsin

g to

4-c

yl.

Extremedownsizg.

ExtremeDownSizing

5%

Downsizing and –speeding- enabled by optimized CCS *

St/St***w/ ReCu

4-5%

ThM**

1-2%

Down-speed.

2-4%

oCC

S*

–P

acka

ge

22%

FrictionReduct.

1%

oCCS*

2-3%

9-11%

Down-sizeddis-

place-ment

* CCS= Conventional Combustion System | ** ThM=Thermal management | *** St/St=Start/Stop SystemSUV w/ 4605 lbs, Basis: 200 kW DI-Diesel, 700 Nm

oCC

S p

lus

DeN

Ox

24%

DeNOx

De-NOx

1-2% COMMENTS %-va lue is reduction

potentia l for s tand-a lone measures .

“optimized CCS” -Package: engine ( + mgmt.) meas . for low NOx combus tion

DeNOx–Package: Active DeNOx-sys tem (NSC NOx-trap or Se l. Ca ta lytic Reduction).

22

334

DS/ENS-NA | 07/12/2011 | 1185_163 | © 2011 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.


Diesel Systems

Clean Diesel Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential

eHyb

. TC

Die

sel

322

Gas

olin

e P

FI*

-30%

476

BaseGas E10

GDI T/Cdownsizedadvanced

Base Diesel

Well to wheel

CO

2 em

issi

ons

[g/m

i]

eHyb

rid

eHyb

rid

withHybrid

withHybrid

405-32%

289

CA

Gri

d

Plug-in Hybrid elec.

340

Significant Potential in Greenhouse Gas reduction expected from Clean Diesel

-15%

184*

Die

sel B

20

Base DieselB20 Fuel

Base DieselB20 Fuel

DownsizedEGT

-61%

eHyb

.

230

-52%

256*

-47%

U.S

. Gri

d

*estimated based on Bosch internal simulations

Source: EIA report based on GREET model



Diesel Systems

Summary

Clean Diesel well accepted by Consumers due to clear benefits

Clean Diesel an Economical solution for Today and Tomorrow

Clean Diesel shows potential to meet future emission regulation

Clean Diesel offers additional potential for GHG reduction

Rudolf Diesel (1897)

Turbo Diesel (2011)

Diesel Systems





Diesel Systems

THANK YOU

Powertrain Strategies for the 21 Century: Economy Demands2. Conventional powertrains – Game over ? Diesel Systems. The Oil Party is nearly over. Peak Oil Beyond Oil. Crude Oil Extraction

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