NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wade December 2009 SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS n o i t u b i r t n o C m o r F e g n a h C y l l a n o s a e S e g n a h C x e d n I h t n o M t s a L l e v e L d e t s u j d A t n e n o p m o C x e d n I Plans to Increase Employment -3% -2 * Plans to Make Capital Outlays 16% -1 * * 0 % 3 - s e i r o t n e v n I e s a e r c n I o t s n a l P Expect Economy to Improve 3% -8 * * 2 % 2 - r e h g i H s e l a S l a e R t c e p x E * 1 % 2 - y r o t n e v n I t n e r r u C * 0 % 8 s g n i n e p O b o J t n e r r u C * 1 % 5 1 - s n o i t i d n o C t i d e r C d e t c e p x E Now a Good Time to Expand 8% 1 * * -3 % 3 4 - s d n e r T s g n i n r a E * -9 e g n a h C l a t o T Based on a Survey of Small and Independent Business Owners Column 1is the current reading; column 2 is the change from the prior month; column 3 the percent of the total change accounted for by each component; * is under 1 percent and not a meaningful calculation.
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NFIB SMALL BUSINESS
ECONOMIC TRENDSNFIB SMALL BUSINESS
ECONOMIC TRENDS
William C. DunkelbergHolly Wade
December 2009
S M A L L B U S I N E S S O P T I M I S M I N D E X C O M P O N E N T S noitubirtnoC morF egnahC yllanosaeS
egnahC xednI htnoM tsaL leveL detsujdA tnenopmoC xednIPlans to Increase Employment -3% -2 * Plans to Make Capital Outlays 16% -1 *
* 0 %3- seirotnevnI esaercnI ot snalPExpect Economy to Improve 3% -8 *
Now a Good Time to Expand 8% 1 * * -3 %34- sdnerT sgninraE * -9 egnahC latoT
Based on a Survey of Small and Independent Business Owners
Column 1is the current reading; column 2 is the change from the prior month; column 3 the percent of the total change accounted for by each component; * is under 1 percent and not a meaningful calculation.
During the last three months, was your firm able tosatisfy its borrowing needs?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Do you expect to find it easier or harder to obtain yourrequired financing during the next three months? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
If you borrow money regularly (at least once every threemonths) as part of your business activity, how does therate of interest payable on your most recent loan comparewith that paid three months ago? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
If you borrowed within the last three months for businesspurposes, and the loan maturity (pay back period) was 1year or less, what interest rate did you pay? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
At the present time, do you feel your inventories are toolarge, about right, or inadequate? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Looking ahead to the next three months to six months,do you expect, on balance, to add to your inventories,keep them about the same, or decrease them? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
During the last six months, has your firm made any capitalexpenditures to improve or purchase equipment, buildings,or land? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
If [your firm made any capital expenditures], what wasthe total cost of all these projects? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Looking ahead to the next three to six months, do youexpect to make any capital expenditures for plantand/or physical equipment? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
SUMMARYOPTIMISM INDEXThe Index of Small Business Optimism lost 0.8 points, falling to 88.3 (1986=100), 7.3 points higher than the survey’s second lowest reading reached in March (the lowest reading was 80.1 in 1980:2). In the 1980-82 recession period, the Index was below 90 in only one quarter and quickly surged to a record high level in early 1983. In this recession, the Index has been below 90 for six quarters, indicative of the severity of this downturn.
LABOR MARKETSIn November small business owners reported a decline in average employment per firm of 0.58 workers reported during the prior three months, a big improvement from May ‘s record loss of 1.26 workers per firm - but still a loss of jobs. Nine percent of the owners increased employment by an average of 2.3 workers per firm, but 21 percent reduced employment an average of 4.2 workers per firm (seasonally adjusted). The “job generating machine” is still in reverse. Sales are not picking up, so survival requires continuous attention to costs – and labor costs loom large. But, job reductions are fading and job creation could cross the “0” line by the end of the year.
CAPITAL SPENDING
The frequency of reported capital outlays over the past six months dropped one point to 44 percent of all firms, revisiting the record low reading set in September (data first collected in 1979). Capital spending is on the sideline. Plans to make capital expenditures over the next few months fell one point to 16 percent, revisiting the 35 year record low. Consumer spending is weak and there is nothing on the table in Washington to make owners more optimistic about the future, a recipe for depressed expectations and spending plans.
INVENTORIES AND SALESThe net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher sales in the past three months remained negative at negative 31 percent, unchanged from October and only three points above the record low set in March and revisited in June and July. The net percent of owners expecting real sales gains improved two points to a negative two percent of all owners, still negative but 27 points better than the March record low level. Small business owners continued to liquidate inventories and weak sales trends gave little reason to order new stocks. A net negative 25 percent of all owners reported gains in inventory stocks, one point better than October and only two points better than the record low of negative 27 recorded each month from April through July. For all firms, a net negative two percent (a one point improvement) reported stocks too low. Plans to add to inventories (on purpose) were unchanged at a negative three percent of all firms (seasonally adjusted). Only a pick-up in sales will turn this around.
This survey was conducted in November 2009. A sample of 3,938 small-business owners/members was drawn. Eight hundred twenty-five (825) usable responses were received – a response rate of 21 percent.
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INFLATIONThe weak economy continued to put downward pressure on prices. Ten percent of the owners reported raising average selling prices, but 29 percent reported price reductions. Widespread price cutting is a major factor driving the reports of lower nominal sales. Seasonally adjusted, the net percent of owners raising prices was negative 17 percent (unchanged), far more cutting prices than raising them. Plans to raise prices fell one point to a net seasonally adjusted four percent of owners, 34 points below the July 2008 reading. On the cost or input side, the percent of owners citing inflation as their number one problem (e.g. costs coming in the “back door” of the business) rose one point to three percent and only four percent cited the cost of labor, so neither labor costs nor materials costs are pressuring owners.
PROFITS AND WAGESReports of positive profit trends are at a net negative 43 percentage points, three points worse than October. The persistence of this imbalance is bad news for the small business community and a contributor to the reported difficulties in obtaining credit. Not seasonally adjusted, 10 percent reported profits higher (down two points), but 51 percent reported profits falling (unchanged). Spending or hiring will not increase until these trends reverse. Owners continued to reduce compensation at a record pace, with 10 percent reporting reduced worker compensation. Reports of increased compensation fell two points to nine percent. Seasonally adjusted, a net three percent reported raising worker compensation, down one point from October and a revisit of June’s record low reading. For those reporting lower earnings compared to the previous three months (51 percent, down one point), 61 percent cited weaker sales, four percent each blamed rising labor costs and higher materials costs, two percent blamed higher insurance costs, and eight percent blamed lower selling prices. Four percent blamed regulatory costs. Poor sales and price cuts are responsible for much of the weakness in profits.
CREDIT MARKETS For those who want to borrow, getting a loan continues to be difficult, with a net 15 percent reporting loans harder to get than in their last attempt. Twenty-four months of recession have sapped the financial strength of many small firms. Thirty-three (33) percent reported regular borrowing, typical of the post-1983 period, unchanged from October. Historically weak plans to make capital expenditures, to add to inventory and expand operations also make it clear that many potentially good borrowers are simply on the sidelines, waiting for a good reason to make capital outlays and order inventory and take out the usual loans used to support these activities. Twenty-nine (29) percent reported all their borrowing needs met (unchanged) compared to 10 percent who reported problems obtaining desired financing (up one point, not seasonally adjusted). The recession is now 24 months old, straining the financial resources of more and more small firms. The economy may have turned, but it is a “slow turn” so far.
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COMMENTARYOwner optimism remains stuck at recession levels. The proximate cause is very weak consumer spending, better than a year ago, but that was pretty bad. Fifteen (15) percent reported gains, while 43 percent reported weakness. With weak consumer spending, there is little need to invest in inventory (and borrow money to support inventory investment). Inventory investment plans are at historically very low levels. Similarly capital spending is on hold, with actual outlays and planned outlays at record low levels along with the demand for loans to finance the outlays. More firms still plan on reducing employment than plan on adding to their payrolls. Inventory reductions are still widespread, eight percent reported accumulation, 33 percent reported reductions. This sets the stage for new orders in future periods, but does not help much now. The construction industry, bloated during the bubble is still in shambles, there are too many houses in too many places (like Florida and California, significant parts of our economy).
But the other major concern is the level of uncertainty being created by government, the usually source of uncertainty for the economy. The “turbulence” created when Congress is in session is often debilitating, this year being one of the worst. Themes including “tax more,” “tax the rich even more,” “VAT taxes,” higher energy costs due to Cap and Trade, mandates and taxes for health care, threats of “stimulus II,” incomprehensible deficits, and a huge pool of liquidity created by the Federal Reserve Bank that threatens price stability and higher interest rates. The list goes on and on. There is not much to look forward to here and good reason to “keep your powder dry.” Uncertainly is the enemy of the real economy as well as financial markets.
Pent up demand (cars, for example) is restarting the economy, house prices have stopped falling in many areas, the stock market is better, and this will encourage the top 20 percent of the income distribution, which accounts for half of consumption spending, to “pick up the pace.” Santa Clause did deliver some nice revisions to the jobs numbers that will cheer everyone up as we watch the change in employment cross the “0 line” maybe by the end of the year (private sector jobs will finally take the lead).
But there are still many uncertainties ahead (most in Congress) that need to be resolved and plenty of “income redistribution” yet to come as we continue to clean up our financial system - all which creates major headwinds for the economy.
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tOVERVIEW - SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM
OPTIMISM INDEX
Based on Ten Survey Indicators(Seasonally Adjusted 1986=100)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2004 105.8 102.6 102.6 105.3 104.5 103.0 105.9 102.9 104.5 103.9 107.7 106.1
NFIB OWNER/MEMBERS PARTICIPATING IN ECONOMIC SURVEY
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tNFIB RESEARCH FOUNDATION SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC SURVEY
SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY QUESTIONS PAGE IN REPORT
Do you think the next three months will be a good time for small business to expand substantially? Why? . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
About the economy in general, do you think that six months from now general business conditions will be better than they are now, about the same, or worse? . . . . . . . . . 5
Were your net earnings or “income” (after taxes) from your business during the last calendar quarter higher, lower, or about the same as they were for the quarter before?. . . . . . . . . . 6
If higher or lower, what is the most important reason?. . . . . . . . . . 6
During the last calendar quarter, was your dollar sales volume higher, lower, or about the same as it was for the quarter before?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Overall, what do you expect to happen to real volume (number of units) of goods and/or services that you will sell during the next three months?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
How are your average selling prices compared to three months ago?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
In the next three months, do you plan to change the average selling prices of your goods and/or services? . . . . . . . . . . 8
During the last three months, did the total number of employees in your firm increase, decrease, or stay about the same?. . . . . . . . 9
If you have filled or attempted to fill any job openings in the past three months, how many qualified applicants were there for the position(s)?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Do you have any job openings that you are not able to fill right now?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
In the next three months, do you expect to increase or decrease the total number of people working for you? . . . . . . . . . 10
Over the past three months, did you change the average employee compensation?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Do you plan to change average employee compensation during the next three months?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11