Monday 28 November, 2016 Powering Sydney’s Future Workshop 1
Monday 28 November, 2016
Powering Sydney’s Future Workshop
1
Welcome Gerard Reiter
Executive General Manager, Asset Management
TransGrid
2
Powering Sydney’s Future - Introduction
Sydney is the most
important load in the
country and it is growing
TransGrid and Ausgrid’s
electricity networks are
critical to support this growth
3
High load areas
• CBD
• Inner suburbs
• Transport corridors
Key customers
• Sydney CBD
• Sydney Airport
• Port Botany
• Major rail and road links.
Powering Sydney’s Future - Introduction
Powering Sydney’s Future - Introduction
Complex network built in the 60s and 70s
Networks’ abilities to meet growing need is
degrading
Timing is critical. To have a solution in
place to meet the need we have to act
now
TransGrid and Ausgrid are committed to
an open and open-minded process to find a
reliable and efficient solution
5
Powering Sydney’s Future – 2014 consultation
• 400 stakeholders representing the public, researchers, industry, government and
regulators participated in a workshop.
• TransGrid and Ausgrid committed to:
o Developing responsive network options – in the PSCR
o Grow demand management using non-network options - in the PSCR and EOI
o Playing active roles in the refinement of standards for a reliable supply at an
efficient cost - engaged with IPART
o Continue to engage and collaborate – we have and continue to do so today
6
Powering Sydney’s Future Ausgrid drivers
Matthew Webb
Manager Network Risk and Planning
Ausgrid
• Approx. 200MW load
from new large
customers
• Estimated 150 ~250MW
from future large scale
redevelopment
Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers
Sydney – growth and additional loads
Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers
Sydney – growth
Forecast demand
growth peak
• Return to demand
forecast growth seen
in 2015 and 2016
• New large customer
loads driving future
growth
• Ausgrid base forecast
is consistent with BIS
Shrapnel forecast
Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers
Deteriorating fluid filled cables
• Ausgrid’s 132kV fluid filled
cables mostly installed in
1960’s and 1970’s
• Ausgrid has approx. 350km
• Repairs are complex and
time consuming
• Ausgrid has an MOU with
the EPA for reducing fluid
leaks over time
Failure
history Leaks
Test
Results
Predictive unavailability model
- History of cable failures with repair times getting longer
- Consistent leaks and poor test results requiring repairs
- All contributing to poor cable availability
Repair
Times
Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers
Deteriorating fluid filled cables
• Total cable unavailability
over past 4 years of
approximately 17%
• Cable fluid loss from leaks
has been significant
• Maintenance
requirements continue to
increase
Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers
Deteriorating fluid filled cables
Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers
Planning based on community benefit
• Network energy delivery
capacity is declining
• Customer demand for
energy is increasing
• Shortfall is expected
unserved energy (EUE)
• Trigger point - where
accumulated value of
EUE is greater than cost
of project
Project Trigger Point
TransGrid driver, proposed reliability standard and this process Anthony Englund
Group Manager, Investment Strategy and Solutions
TransGrid
14
Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process
• Not operating to its full capacity
o Cable 42 CMS showed higher TR (2000s)
o Backfill sampling (to 2009)
o 1st derating - Anders & Orton review (2011)
o Full backfill sampling program (to 2016)
o 2nd derating – Anders (2016)
o Cable and joint sampling (now)
15
Driver 3: Cable 41
• One of two 330kV cables, 20 km long,
built in 1970s, 40 year nominal life
Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process
Proposed new reliability standard
• About fine-tuning price/service level balance
• IPART: ‘Modified n-2 + 0.6 minutes EUSE per year at average demand’
• EUSE equivalent of 20MW (UNSW or Kensington) one hour per year
• An important, evolutionary change but…
• Capacity reductions and load growth put us in deficit from 2017
• Challenge to supply energy, major challenge to supply appropriate capacity
• Key message: we need to know what non-network solutions can deliver
16
Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process
Project trigger point
Energy shortfall (MWh)
Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process
Capacity shortfall (MW)
Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process
Process
2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23
RIT-T process
Environmental planning process
Implementation phase
Design phase
19
• PSCR subs due 13 Jan 2017
• PADR Mar/April 2017
• PADR subs due May/June 2017 (6 weeks)
• PACR July/Aug 2017
Considering all options Nalin Pahalawaththa
Group Manager, Power System Analysis
TransGrid
20
Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
The planning process considers:
Reliability
Cost
Environment
21
Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
In situ replacement of cables
330 kV cable replacement:
• Cable Outage – up to 2-5 years
• High costs – similar to new cable
development
• Access issues
• 4 x the capacity of 132 kV cable
132 kV cable replacement:
• Environmental risk – crossing harbour
• High costs – similar to new cable
development
• Limited improvement to network capability
22
Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
23
New Cables – 330 kV Vs 132 kV
• Limited Capability enhancement from
132 kV option
load growth
Network Development flexibility
• 132 kV = higher costs ($/MW)
• 132 kV = higher community &
environmental impact
132 kV Option
330 kV Option
Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
New cables – 330 kV vs 132 kV
• Limited Capability enhancement from
132 kV option:
o Load growth
o Network development flexibility
• High costs ($/MW)
• Community and environmental impact
24
Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
Route selection: Sydney’s East
• 3 out of 6 possible route options were
considered feasible (approx. 26km)
• Environmental impact on national parks
and harbour crossing
• Significant high costs due to the
geography of the area.
• Network limitations: overloading
Sydney’s North to East via 330 kV lines
Sydney
East
Sydney
North
Rookwood
Road
Sydney
West
Sydney
South
Beaconsfield
Haymarket
25
Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
Route selection: Sydney’s North
• 4 out of 7 possible route options
were considered feasible (tunnels,
overhead lines, combinations)
• Environmental impact on national
parks and harbour crossing
• Significant costs due to the
geography of the area and the
length of the route
Sydney
East
Sydney
North
Rookwood
Road
Sydney
West
Sydney
South
Beaconsfield
Haymarket
26
Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
Route selection: Sydney’s South
• 3 out of 9 possible route options were
considered feasible (tunnels, overhead
lines, combinations)
• Diversity issue:
o Concentrate of 330 kV supply to
CBD from one location
o Part of route is along existing 330kV
cables
• Environmental and community impact on
Georges River National Park and high
density residential area
• Similar costs to Rookwood Road option
Sydney
East
Sydney
North
Rookwood
Road
Sydney
West
Sydney
South
Beaconsfield
Haymarket
27
Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
Route selection: Rookwood Road
• 13 possible route options were considered
feasible (tunnels, overhead lines,
combinations)
• Provided diversity to supply CBD area
• Utilised existing 330 kV supply capacity from
Sydney’s West to Rookwood Road
• Low costs compared with the Sydney North
and East options
• Relatively low community and environmental
impact
Sydney
East
Sydney
North
Rookwood
Road
Sydney
West
Sydney
South
Beaconsfield
Haymarket
28
Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
Rookwood
Road
Options
Options 2 x 330kV
cables in
stages
2 x 330kV
cables at
once
Remediate
Cable 41
Retire
Cable 41
Operate
Cable 41
at 132kV
Decommission
Ausgrid cables
– 2 stages
Decommission
Ausgrid cables
– 1 stage
1
2
3
4
5
6
29
Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
Storage Curtailment of load Embedded
generation
Alternatives to network augmentation which address a potential shortage in electricity supply
Network Solution
Non-Network Solutions
30
The possiblity of non-network
David Bones
Service Group Manager – Power Strategy and Economics
GHD
31
Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network
Non-network comprises of:
• Generation
• Storage
• Demand Management
Non-network components are
1. Unserved energy at risk
2. Project deferral
3. Part of the integrated project solution
32
Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network
Inner Sydney’s daily
demand profile
33
Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network
Expected
unserved energy
in 2020-23
without Powering
Sydney’s Future
project
34
Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network
Examples of
non-network
options
35
Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network
36
Non-network case study – 60MW, 12 Hr, 8 week options
Existing Standby Generation Central Battery Central Power Station
Powering Sydney’s Future Workshop
37