$6.99Winter 2015WHOS WHOIN THEMIKE DUFFY TRIALWINTER 2015THE
HILL TIMES & EMBASSYHILLTIMES.COM/POWERINFLUENCEWHAT ITS REALLY
LIKE TO WORK IN THE PMOby Keith BeardsleyHOW 30 NEWHOUSE SEATS will
change thegame in 2015by Alice FunkeOTTAWABEER CITYby Rachel
Aielloby Mark BurgessINSIDE THEWINE CAUCUSby Asha HingoraniHES GOT
THE POWERJoe Olivers about to deliver the election budgetby Mark
BurgessELECTION 2015Behind Conservative,NDP, Liberal campaignsby
Abbas Rana, Laura Ryckewaert and Rachel AielloWHOS ADVISING HARPER
ON IRAQby Chris Plecashby Leslie MacKinnonHAIRSTYLIST TO POLITICAL
STARSHARPERS INACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE IRRATIONALTHIS YOGA CLASS
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yourself to the modern conveniences of our Club Room featuring free
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AMEaton.indd 1 14-10-02 4:35 PMPower & Inf luence Winter
20151ContentsWinter Issue Vol. 4 No. 1Editors note P. 2PMO Former
deputy chief of staff to the Prime Minister, Keith Beardsley,
offers a candid take on what its really like to work in the PMO.
Its hard work and crazy, long hours. P. 3 Criminal Trial Senator
Mike Duffys trial promises to be one for the history books. P. 50
New seats Game changer: how the new electoral map will create new
political realities. P. 6 The campaigns With the first fixed-date
election, all federal parties have been preparing for the 2015 trip
to the polls earlier than usual, nominating candidates and raising
money with added urgency. We take an inside look at some of the key
people behind the Conservative, NDP and Liberal campaigns. P.
9PollsPolitical public opinion polls might be more self-fulfilling
prophecy. P. 20 Foreign affairs Whos advising Harper on Iraq and
the Middle East. The top players. P. 22 Environment The Harper
governments inaction on climate change is irrational. P. 48With the
Tory election strategy bulls-eye on Justin Trudeau and the attempts
to characterize him as the in-over-his-head risky leader who thinks
the budget will balance itself, Finance Minister Joe Oliver, the
occasionally brusque ex-banker, is a suitable foil. p. 27 P&I
cover and contents page photographs by Dave ChanThe Top 100The 100
most powerful and influential peoplein government and politics in
2015. P. 23LobbyingAfter being written off by some in the wake of
the sponsorship scandal, Earnscliffe Strategy Group, which
celebrated its 25th anniversary last fall, regrouped around an
approach to lobbying that made it unique when it launched in 1989.
P. 52 Style Stefania Capovilla is hairstylist to many MPs,
including Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Foreign Affairs
Minister John Baird. P. 59WineInside the Conservative wine caucus.
P. 60BeerOttawas tapping in to craft beer. P. 62MusicFrom amateurs
to touring songwriters, music helps the countrys federal lawmakers
unwind, relate to constituents, and to one another.P. 64YogaEvery
Monday night when the House is sitting, about 10 NDP MPs meet for a
yoga class in the Parliamentary Precinct. In the toxic Hill world,
it helps their minds, bodies, and political souls. P. 71Power &
Inf luence Winter 20152About eight years ago, I thought of the idea
of publishing a list of the top 100 people who inuence the federal
government and politics in Ottawa, after reading Washington-based
Foreign Policy magazines 100 Top Global Thinkers. Foreign Policy
ran more than 70 pages of well-written, gritty, and insightful
proles along with some massive, beautiful photos and drawings. It
was a great, gutsy read. So, we started running our own Canadian
list annually in The Hill Times. In 2012, we decided to turn it
into a full-blown glossy magazine. We put John Baird on the cover
and called it Power & Inuence. It took off. In 2012, we
published one issue. In 2014, we added two more to the top 100 in
politics list: one led by Embassy editors Carl Meyer and Kristen
Shane exploring the top 100 people inuencing Cana-das global
future, and the other, led by The Lobby Monitor editor Simon Doyle,
who looked at the top 50 business leaders inuencing politics and
policy. This year, the magazine will be published four times.
P&Is underlying theme is constant: to shed light on the most
powerful and inuential people in Canada. Mark Burgess, deputy
editor of The Hill Times, compiled this years top 100 people in
federal politics and government, after spending two months talking
to political staffers, strategists, and lobbyists. It wasnt easy to
do and its never an exact science. People come and go, events take
over, and things can change on a dime. His list changed a few
times, but the 2015 top 100 list is solid and smart. Burgess
learned a few tricks of the trade from Bea Vongdouangchanh, former
deputy editor of The Hill Times, and our new online editor, who had
compiled the top 100 list for the previous six years. Burgess goal
was to, as accurately as possible, identify the top people who will
be inuencing government policy, decision-making, and public opinion
in 2015, including politicians, political staffers, bureaucrats,
lobbyists, and media. This years list was also done looking through
the lens of the 2015 fall federal election. But there are still
only 24 women and three visible minorities on the list. Again, this
is a reection of the government and of how power and inuence in
politics, government and media are still mostly dominated by white
males. Thats not our choice. Our own wish list of 100 would look
quite different. Burgess considered the uncertain state of federal
politics in 2015 when formulating the list, with those running
campaigns highly represented.In this issue, Abbas Rana, Laura
Ryckewaert and Rachel Aiello report on the Conservative, NDP, and
Liberal campaigns. Pundits Guides Alice Funke looks at how the 30
new ridings will change the game and 308.coms ric Grenier unpacks
the polls. But theres plenty more.Starting in the very next issue,
Vongd-ouangchanh will be the full-time editor of our Power &
Inuence magazine. It will be in excel-lent hands. Enjoy the read.
byKATEMALLOYEditors notePower and influence in Ottawa: 2015Editor
Kate Malloy Deputy Editor Mark Burgess Assistant Deputy EditorAbbas
RanaContributorsDerek AbmaRachel AielloLaura Beaulne-StuebingKeith
BeardsleyDenis Calnan Mike De SouzaAlice Funkeric GrenierPeter
HendersonAsha HingoraniAnja KaradeglijaLeslie MacKinnonLaura
RyckewaertChris Plecash PhotographersDave ChanSam Garcia Jake
Wright Vice President, Sales and DevelopmentDon
Turner,613-688-8825|[email protected]
CoordinatorAmanda KeenanCorporate Account Executives Craig
Caldbick, 613-688-8827|[email protected] Macdonald,
613-688-8841|[email protected] Reaume,
613-688-8836|[email protected] and Sponsorship
Executive Ulle Baum,613-688-8840|[email protected]
ManagerBenoit DenaultSenior Graphic and Online Designer Joey
SabourinJunior Graphic Designer Melanie BrownWeb Developer Chris
Ross General Manager, CFOAndrew Morrow Finance/AdministrationTracey
WaleReceptionAlia Kellock HewardCirculation Manager Chris
PeixotoDirector of Reader Sales Ryan ONeillReader Sales Executive
Matthew CybulskiPublishersAnne Marie Creskey Jim Creskey Ross
Dickson Published by Hill Times Publishing 2015 Hill Times
PublishingAll Rights Reserved. Power & Inuence is published
four times a year.69 Sparks Street, Ottawa, ON K1P 5A5(613)
232-5952 hilltimes.comThe editorial team: Pictured left to right,
front row: The Hill Times photographer Jake Wright; Embassy
reporter Laura Beaulne-Stuebing; Parliament Nows editor Asha
Hingorani; and Hill Times reporters Rachel Aiello and Laura
Ryckewaert. Back row: The Wire Reports Derek Abma and Peter
Henderson; Embassy reporter Chris Plecash; The Hill Times editor
Kate Malloy; The Hill Times deputy editor Mark Burgess; and The
Hill Times assistant deputy editor Abbas Rana. P&I photo by Sam
GarciaPower & Inf luence Winter 20153I started working in the
Prime Ministers Oce right afer the 2006 election and lef in 2008.
Working in the PMO was both a privilege and an honour. Te
invitation to work there usually comes afer years of hard work and
progressive responsibility, and promotion to the PMO should mean
that you have the political smarts to do the job. Te style and tone
of every PMO is dierent. It is set by the Prime Minister and his
chief of sta and will vary with their personalities. Stephen
Harpers rst chief of sta, Ian Brodie, successfully managed a pretty
diverse group of senior sta members. We were not an easy bunch to
handle. We had very dierent skill sets and levels of experience,
plus the party was freshly minted and the years of inter-party
political warfare werent that far behind us. Mr. Brodie was able to
blend our talents together and turn us into a strong, co-ordinated
group of se-nior sta members. Not always an easy job.Te general
public rarely understands the true size of the PMO. When you say
you work in the Prime Ministers Oce they envision a regular oce
with just a few sta members. Most are shocked to hear that it could
have more than 100 staers. Te number seems high but its not,
considering the volume of work done there. If you thought juggling
a dozen les in opposition was tough, you can easily double that
number in the PMO.BYKEI THBEARDSLEYWhat itsreally liketo work in
the PMOIts like being passed through a meat grinder: you go in
fresh, whole, and full of ideas, and by the time you leave it, you
are changed forever. But thats in every PMO and if youre a
political staffer, the PMO is where you want to be.Keith Beardsley
was a ministerial chief of staff in the Mulroney years, worked in
PC leader Peter MacKays ofce in 1997, joined Stephen Harpers OLO
after the merger of Progressive Conservative and Canadian Alliance
parties, and went to work in the PMO from 2006, right after the
election, until 2008. P&I photograph by Jake WrightPMOPower
& Inf luence Winter 20154PMOIf you are a political staer, the
PMO is where you want to be. Politically, it is the centre of your
universe and a goal that most want to achieve while on the Hill. Te
question remains what happens once you get there.I regard working
in the PMO as being passed through a meat grinder. You go in fresh,
whole and full of ideas, and by the time you leave it, you are
changed forever into something or someone friends and family nd
unrecognizable as they wonder what happened to the old you. Te
trouble is that you are so buried in your work that you have no
idea you have changed so much.Your rst few days there are pretty
heady ones: suddenly you are a somebody. You have made it. Youre a
big shot now. If youre not careful, it can go to your head and you
can become unbearable and quite full of yourself. It is sad to say,
but I have seen far too much of that over the years. For example, I
went from being the direc-tor of research and issues management and
Question Period in the Opposition Leaders Oce to deputy chief of
sta for issues man-agement and Question Period in the PMO. I had a
brand-new, fancy title, but changing titles didnt endow me with new
political su-perpowers and vision. Smart PMO staers try to stay
grounded and remind themselves that what has really changed is the
job titlethey are no more intelligent or experienced than before
they walked into the Langevin Build-ing. Too few remember that and
they act as if mere acceptance of the job has suddenly blessed them
with increased powers of obser-vation and political knowledge that
has taken others years to earn. Tis is most evident with the way
some PMO staers treat MPs who, in many cases, have spent double or
triple the time in political life. And MPs have to face
re-election, they arent appointed.For some, it can be a real power
trip to know that ministers, MPs, and sta now have to listen to
every word you say. All too ofen it becomes the PMO issuing orders
as opposed to exchanging ideas with ministe-rial sta, who quite
ofen know more about the le than you do. In some cases, it is a
crutch used by PMO sta to hide their own lack of experience and
knowledge.We had a good mix of senior sta blending experience and
enthu-siasm. It helped that some had plenty of experience, plus a
long corporate memory that made it easier to evaluate issues and
oer advice to the Prime Minister. Over time, you develop the
ability to look at an issue and know which ones have to be dealt
with and which ones will go away due to a lack of information or
media interest. Experience teaches you that not every issue is a
crisis or big deal. Not every issue needs someone coming down on a
person like a ton of bricks. Tat is where your seasoned senior
political sta come in. You have to have a few grey hairs with the
experience to know when and how to act, i.e. some adult supervision
for the boys and girls in short-pants. Partisan fervour can be a
good thing, but constantly going over the top doesnt work either.
Experience also allows you to disagree with the Prime Minister.
When you think he is approaching something the wrong way, you have
to be able to tell him so. Afer all, he hired you to give him
advice. You are no use to him if you are a yes man who sits there
applauding every word he says or decision that he wants to make.
Disagreeing with the boss can make for some pretty uncomfort-able
moments in a meeting or one on one, but every Prime Minister has to
have the condence in you to respect that when you push back and
there are very good reasons for doing so. On a couple of occasions,
Mr. Harper joked that he kept Bruce Carson and me around because we
had advised every Conservative leader since Sir Robert Borden. Not
quite true, but there was a lot of seasoned political experience
between the two of us.While the senior staers get all the
rec-ognition, media attention, and wield quite a bit of power
within the environs of the Hill and party, they couldnt do it
without the dedicated group of junior staers working in the PMO.
With a sta of roughly 100, most PMO personnel fall into the junior
sta category, but they are key to getting the job done. You learn
very quickly who you can rely on and who is spinning their The one
constant throughout my time in the PMO was the pressure and stress.
It never goes away and it is so constant that, over time, you
forget it is there.Power & Inf luence Winter 20155PMOwheels or
a blowhard that promises a lot but never delivers. I am pleased to
say that I had excellent sta and it stayed pretty well intact in
both the OLO and the PMO.Like the senior sta, the workday of the
junior sta is exceptionally long. My sta was online checking the
news as early as 5 a.m., with our rst meeting at 7:15 a.m. Our day
would end afer the 10 p.m. news, pro-viding we didnt have something
urgent to deal with. Tere was a never-ending supply of emails
coming in and untold numbers of les to handle and review and act on
every day of the week. To have a couple of hours o on a weekend was
a blessing and we counted the days lef before the House recessed,
hoping the pressure and volume of work would slacken a bit.Many of
the junior sta go unrecog-nized in the hallways when passed by
senior staers. Teir hard work is translated into memos that lter up
through the approval process to land on the desk of the chief of
sta or perhaps the PM. By then their names have usually disappeared
from the document and no recognition of the work they put into it
remains. I always felt putting my name on someone elses work was
unfair and insisted that their name stay in place. I recall one
oc-casion when the PM was reading a note and he wanted to know who
the person was that had written it, as he didnt think that he had
met the person. An order went out for the staer to appear in the
PMs oce at once. Expecting the worst, the staer was instead
congratulated on the quality of work he pro-duced. Its a little
thing, but I can guarantee that staer will never forget that
meeting and his morale got a huge boost.Staers became adrenalin
junkies, going from highs to lows throughout the day as issues
emerged or were dealt with. I nd that looking back, it all blends
together and it is hard to put a date on anything that happened.
Instead you remember issues, crises or eventsthe days remain a
blur.Emails were the bane of our existence; your BlackBerry was
glued to your hand. Te sheer volume of email was stagger-ing, each
urgent according to the sender, leaving it to the receiver to
triage them. On one trip to Montreal, I counted 120 coming in from
the time I lef Ottawa until I arrived at my destination.My day
always centered around Ques-tion Period: my two key meetings were
the brieng and practice session for the PM and the following one
prepping the Cabinet ministers. Tose bring back the best memories
as you had a chance to meet them, discuss issues with them as well
as learn more about them and the issues they were handling.Te one
constant throughout my time in the PMO was the pressure and
stress.It never goes away and it is so constant that, over time,
you forget it is there. You become oblivious to it but its still
there, wearing you down. You are never more than one decision away
from a politi-cal disaster and severe consequences for the Prime
Minister. Something as simple as giving a wrong or poorly thought
out answer to a minister can result in horrible media coverage. A
mistake can land the PM on the hot seat in Question Period for days
on end, hurting both his and the partys image. You live with it and
think you have it under control, but you never really do. Burnout
is something that every-one has to watch for.Eventually it all
comes to an end and you walk away from it. Your name will quickly
be forgotten as the PMO meat grinder is always looking for
replacement sta to feed it. But you have the satisfac-tion of
knowing that you did your part and that you worked in one of the
toughest buildings in the country.It doesnt matter which party you
rep-resent, working in the PMO can be a life changing experience.
It is also interesting to note that in your post-political world,
such a shared experience translates into a pretty good relationship
with other former PMO members, regardless of which politi-cal party
or leader they worked for. Like the senior staff, the workdayof the
junior staff is exceptionally long. My staff was online checking
the news as early as 5 a.m., with our first meeting at 7:15 a.m.
Our day would end after the 10 p.m. news, providing we didnt have
something urgent to deal with.Power & Inf luence Winter
20156How will the 30 new ridings change the game in Canadian
politics? Three com-peting trends will play out in the ght for the
redrawn electoral map in the next federal electionand theyll make
it one for the ages.Lack of incumbency: Between 66 and 75 of the
338 House of Commons seats that will be up for grabs in 2015 will
not have an incum-bent Member of Parliament on the ballot. At press
time, 38 MPs had announced their retire-ment, with two vacant seats
and eight others yet to declare their intentions.Add those to the
30 new federal ridings created through electoral redistribution,
and you have a lot of wide-open races.New ridings in high-growth
areas: Many of the seats that have been added are found in areas of
rapid population growth, with new housing developments and an
underdevel-oped sense of community and belonging. Vot-ers in these
areas will be reached as individu-als rather than as members of an
established community. Incumbency and name recogni-tion will be of
little value, even in the few new seats that will have an elected
MP on the ballot. They are the air war seats.Ripple effects on
other ridings: The ad-dition of new seats in Ontario has also
caused a drop in the average population of the remaining ridings,
making some previously urban-rural seats more urban and therefore
changing the nature of those contests.In Saskatchewan, the end of
the eight so-called rurban, pie-shaped ridings that joined four
quarters of Regina and Saskatoon with their rural rings in favour
of ve urban and one rurban seat is expected to change the bal-ance
of representation in that province for the rst time in 15 years.A
similar pattern could be repeated in Edmonton, whose ridings also
became more urban, while the impact of in-migration on electoral
contests in other parts of Alberta, such as Calgary and Fort
McMurray, also Game changer: how the new federal electoral mapwill
create new political realitiesThere are no straightforward answers
when it comes to deciphering the 30 new federal ridings, but there
are a lot of very interesting questions.Its on: The Danforth in
Toronto, Ont. Three competing trends will play out in the ght for
the redrawn electoral map in the next federal election, and theyll
make it one for the ages: new ridings in high-growth areas, lack of
incumbency, and ripple effects on other ridings.BYALI
CEFUNKEELECTION2015CHALLENGE THE WAY YOU THINK.Potential.
Weallhaveit. At Trent University, webelievetheway you learn is the
key that unlocks your future. Here you explore new ideas,
innovative ways of thinking and diferent perspectives. Its a voyage
of self-discovery where interests are revealed and passions are
ignited, inspiring you to reach new heights and nd your place in
the world.FIND THE YOU YOU DIDNT KNOW WAS IN YOU.CAN IPICK YOUR
BRAIN? WHY YES. YES, YOU CAN.CHALLENGE THE WAY YOU
THINK.PETERBOROUGH .OSHAWATrent_Brain_HillTimes_PI.indd 1 11/12/14
10:04 AMCHALLENGE THE WAY YOU THINK.Potential. Weallhaveit. At
Trent University, webelievetheway you learn is the key that unlocks
your future. Here you explore new ideas, innovative ways of
thinking and diferent perspectives. Its a voyage of self-discovery
where interests are revealed and passions are ignited, inspiring
you to reach new heights and nd your place in the world.FIND THE
YOU YOU DIDNT KNOW WAS IN YOU.CAN IPICK YOUR BRAIN? WHY YES. YES,
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14-12-17 10:21 AMPower & Inf luence Winter
20158ELECTION2015remains an open question. These are the ground war
seats.Lets consider each factor in greater detail.Lack of
incumbencyWe call a riding with no incumbent MP on the ballot an
open seat. 2015 will see a lot of open seats, though not a record
high.Two other elections stand out in recent history as having high
open seat counts:n1993, when it became clear that the Mulroney
governments unpopularity would force many government MPs into
opposition if they even survived the campaign (all but two did
not), and;n2004, which saw the changing of the guard from Jean
Chrtien to Paul Martin within the Liberal Party, a newly re-united
Conservative Party, and an ambitious and energetic new NDP leader,
all set to do battle on new riding boundaries, including seven new
seats.nBoth of those elections heralded major changes in the
federal political party system in Canada and had an outsized impact
on the future of political debate in the country. This year can be
expected to do no less.Its also worth noting the above-average
number of rst-term incumbents heading into their rst attempt at
re-election when the writ drops:nThe majority are wearing NDP
colours in the province of Quebec. While theyll face greater
competition, particularly in anglo- and allophone Montreal and in
Qubec City ridings, one thing they wont have to worry about is the
residual strength that Bloc Qubcois incumbents showed in 2011.
Expect that residual Bloc vote to shrink in 2015, some to stay
home, and some to bolster the NDP in their ght with the resurgent
Liberals.nAnother group is the Conservatives who won seats around
the ring of Toronto, and whose election gave the government its
coveted majority, but whose provin-cial counterparts are mainly
Liberals after last springs election.New ridings in high-growth
areasMany of the new ridings around the out-skirts of Ontario are a
completely clean slate. Consider that what were two ridings in 1988
York North and Markham-Whitchurch-Stouffvillebecame ve seats in
1997, six seats in 2004, and stand at nine ridings today.These
commuter ridings around Toronto dont have a long electoral track
record, have brand new local riding associations, and will be
heavily inuenced by both the competing narratives of the national
campaign and the very individualized targeting initiatives using
the modern digital tools honed south of the border.Another driver
of population growth in these ridings in Ontario and B.C. is
immi-gration, so the ability of the parties to target and integrate
these new cultural communi-ties in their campaigns will be
vital.The uncertainty in these ridings has actu-ally seen many
incumbent Conservative MPs choose to run in safer adjacent ridings
rather than test the new waters. In doing so, theyve stripped
whatever residual benet there might have been from their name
recognition and put into question many observers early assumptions
that the new seats were a boon for the governments majority
re-election.Ripple effects on other ridingsOutside the areas of
rapid growth in Ontario, the rural seats will become more rural and
the small-town urban seats will become more urban, particularly in
the southwest. Seats like Oshawa, Brantford, Cambridge, Sarnia, and
Essex will see the balance shift somewhat away from the
Conservatives and become more competi-tive for the rst time in
several elections.In Saskatchewan, expect to see a more competitive
playing eld in Regina-Lewvan, Saskatoon West, Saskatoon University
and Saskatoon Grasswoodthe urban seatsand
Desneth-Missinippi-Churchill River in the north, which has lost
some of the agricultural areas in the south that vote
Conservative.Alberta will see a little more competi-tion in open
seats in the highly urban areas as well, including Edmonton
Griesbach, Edmonton Centre, Calgary Centre and Calgary
Confederation.Vancouver Island in British Columbia is one area
where the new seats are causing signicant boundary changes that
will in-crease competitiveness mainly between the Conservatives and
NDP, while the addition of new seats in South Surrey and the lower
Fraser Valley can be expected to merely up the Conservatives seat
count.Other factors to considerWhen the new electoral map was
published, Elections Canada transposed the 2011 voting results onto
the new boundaries and calculated how the parties would do in each
seat.This calculation is called the 2011 Transposition, and while
its an interesting starting point for any analysis of a new ridings
prospects, baked into the cake are a number of outdated factors
that tell us more about where the puck was going four years ago
than where its headed next time out.Nominal winners: A
transposition calcu-lates the nominal winner of a seat, but one
that doesnt always make common sense given who the current
incumbent is. For example, Winnipeg North Liberal MP Kevin
Lamou-reux will be running for re-election as the incumbent MP in a
newly-drawn riding with the same name that takes in most of his
cur-rent seat, but for which the nominal winner is the NDP. Yet
most observers expect him to be re-elected because of a second
factor.Assimilation effects: The portions of Kildonan-St. Paul,
Man., which is a Liberal-Conservative contest, when added to
Winnipeg North, which is a Liberal-NDP race, probably showed a
higher Conservative vote for MP Joy Smith than they would do in a
battle between Mr. Lamoureux and an NDP competitor. A similar
example exists in suburban greater Vancouver, where incum-bent NDP
MP Fin Donnelly is running for re-election in a riding the
Conservatives nominally win, but the margin would have been drawn
from Conservative MP James Moores inordinate popularity, and hes
now running next door.Campaign effects: The perception of
win-nability in a seat will affect the parties interest in
targeting it for local organization support. Ridings such as the
rurban Regina and Saska-toon seats, or some of the seats on
northern Vancouver Island, are quite sensitive to bound-ary
changes, and would not have been as heav-ily targeted by the
opposition parties last time around as they will be this
time.ConclusionCanadian federal elections have been clas-sied as
being either transformative or incre-mental in terms of the way
they changed the number, strength and regional support for our
national political parties.The year 1993 saw the rise of the Reform
Party and Bloc Qubcois. The year 2004 saw the right unite, and 2011
saw the end of the Bloc Qubcois.Will 2015 prove the 2011 upheaval
to have been transitory or permanent? You cant answer that question
without consider-ing the new electoral map, and as weve seen, there
are no straightforward answers, but a lot of very interesting
questions.Three competing trends will play out in the fight for the
redrawn electoral map in the next federal electionand theyll make
it one for the ages.ELECTION2015byABBASRANABehind the Conservative
2015 electioncampaignPrime Minister Stephen Harper is now the sixth
longest serving Prime Minister in Canadian history. In November
2014, he surpassed former Progressive Conservative prime minister
Brian Mulroneys eight years and 281 days in ofce and if he runs and
wins the next election, he will be the rst Conservative prime
minister to win four consecutive mandates.Hes in. Its on.Stephen
Harper pictured Feb. 27, 2014, on Parliament Hill. P&I
photograph by Jake WrightThe next election is not supposed to take
place until Oct. 19, 2015, but in the era of permanent campaigning,
all parties have already put their election readiness in high gear.
Two critical questions, however, are hampering the opposition
par-ties: Will Prime Minister Stephen Harper lead his party to seek
a fourth straight mandate in 2015? And, if hes planning on
remaining the leader, will he respect his own xed-date election law
or pull the trigger when the timing is more favourable? Pundits
have been all over the map in answering these ques-tions but Mr.
Harper and his senior Cabinet ministers all say in on-the-record
interviews that the Prime Minister will lead the party in the next
election, and that it will take place as scheduled on Oct. 19.The
agenda Ive been planning takes us through to the end of June,
Government House Leader Peter Van Loan told reporters on Dec. 11. I
dont have any plans, Im not working with any assumption of an early
election.We have an election identied for October and were working
on that basis.In a year-end interview with the CBC on Dec. 17,
2014, Prime Minister Harper did not rule out the possibility of an
early election.Well, I wouldnt say theres nothing that could change
it [Oct. 19] but theres nothing on the horizon that I see changing
that. We xed that date and were planning on it like everybody else,
Mr. Harper said. Mr. Harper also said in the same interview that he
would lead his party in the next election.Some senior Conservative
staffers and MPs in not-for-attribution interviews say one key
hurdle in pulling the plug early is how to justify breaking the
xed-date elec-tion law in a majority government. If the
Conservatives decide to go early, the two principal reasons would
be to avoid the Mike Duffy trial, which begins April 7, and to ride
the current wave of momentum thats brought Conservatives neck and
neck with the Liberals in the national public opinion polls after
the October shootings in the Parliamentary Precinct and family tax
cut announcements.But proponents of going early say the timing
would only be an issue for the rst few days of the campaign.As far
as strategy goes, yeah, sure, you take a hit for the rst week or so
and then people move on to other issues, says Keith Beardsley,
former deputy chief of staff to Prime Minister Harper.Every
election is a high-stakes game for all the party leaders,
especially incumbent prime ministers, but failing to win another
majority would likely lead to Mr. Harpers leadership being called
into question, and he could decide that he isnt interested in
running another minority government. After setting high
expectations for himself in the last election by winning a
majority, Conservative sources say he will have to meet those again
or hes out. In the 2011 election, Conservatives won their majority
with 166 seats in the 308-seat House. In 2015 there will be 338
seats up for grabs, requiring 170 seats for a majority. Polling
trends suggest this will be a hard number to reach, even more so
because with the NDP in Opposition, its the rst election in recent
memory where there will be three parties with a shot at forming
gov-ernment. How the three-way vote will play out is anybodys guess
but given the current polling trends, the winning party is likely
to form a minority government. The 2015 election is going to make
or break Mr. Harper, Mr. Beardsley says. If he wins it, then he
goes out in style but if he doesnt, then he becomes just another
defeated Prime Minister.Tim Powers, vice-chairman of Summa
Strategies, says the outcome of the next general election has
consequences not only for Mr. Harper but also for the opposition
leaders.Conservative Party spokesman Cory Hann declined to be
interviewed for this article, saying that We dont comment on stafng
matters so any speculation on who will be lling what role would be
just that. But Conservative sources tell The Hill Times that the
next Conservative campaign will be run by the same senior staffers
who worked on the majority-winning run in 2011. The main
playersJenni Byrne, deputy chief of staff to the Prime Minister,
will serve as campaign manager while Guy Giorno, Mr. Harpers former
chief of staff, will serve as campaign chair. Both held the same
positions in the 2011 election campaign. Party sources say that
senior Conser-vatives are still in the midst of nalizing the stafng
details and that process will Power & Inf luence Winter
201510Jenni Byrne, pictured left, deputy chief of staff to the
Prime Minister, will serve as campaign manager, while Guy Giorno,
Stephen Harpers former chief of staff, will serve as campaign
chair. Both held the same positions in the 2011 election campaign.
ELECTION2015Ray Novak, left, chief of staff to the Prime Minister;
Jason MacDonald, top centre, director of communications to Mr.
Harper; Dustin Van Vugt, top right, executive director of the
Conservative Party; Fred DeLorey, above centre, director of
political operations of the Conservative Party, and Cory Hann will
all be working on the Conservative campaign. P&I photos by Jake
Wright and handouts
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AMPower & Inf luence Winter 201512ELECTION2015continue until
the election is called. The reason, they explain, for not nalizing
all the positions at this time is that if the election happens in
October, some staff-ers may no longer be available for the campaign
for family or work reasons.Within the party circles, Ms. Byrne is
known as a no-nonsense, hyper-partisan, ruthless campaign operative
who is never shy about dressing down any staffer or party
candidates who fail to follow the na-tional campaign instructions
in letter and spirit. In the 2004, 2006, and 2008 election
campaigns, she worked closely with the late Doug Finley, who played
a key role in building a formidable election machine for his party.
Mr. Giorno, a partner at the Fasken Martineau law rm, who currently
is also the Conservative Partys legal advis-er, in the past served
as chief of staff to former Ontario premier Mike Harris. Others
expected to serve in senior roles in the next election campaign
include: Ray Novak, chief of staff to the Prime Minister; Bill
Hawkins, principal secretary to Mr. Harper; Sean Speer, spe-cial
adviser to the Prime Minister; Jason MacDonald, director of
communications to Mr. Harper; Dustin van Vugt, executive director
of the Conservative Party; Fred DeLorey, director of political
operations of the Conservative Party, and Mr. Hann. Mr. Novak, who
has been serving as a political aide to the Prime Minis-ter since
2001, is the longest-serving member of the Harper inner circle. He
even lived in a loft above the detached garage at Stornoway. As
executive assistant to Mr. Harper, Mr. Novak used to spend almost
all his waking hours with the-then Opposition leader and his
family. Though hes the top staffer in the Harper government, he has
always preferred to keep a low prole. As in the last four election
campaigns, he will be part of the Prime Ministers tour team and
travel with Mr. Harper.Mr. MacDonald is also expected to travel
with the Prime Minister in the next campaign. As the chief
spokesman, he will be assisted by junior commu-nications staffers
on the plane. Prior to joining the PMO in Sept. 2013, Mr. MacDonald
headed Aboriginal Affairs Minister Bernard Valcourts
commu-nications shop. Before that he served as a spokesman for the
CBC and also ran unsuccessfully in the 2011 Ontario provincial
election as a Progressive Con-servative Party candidate.
Conservative MPs Not RunningRiding % Won In2011
ElectionConservative MP Diane AblonczyCalgary-Nose Hill, Alta.
70.2%Conservative MP Mike AllenTobique-Mactaquac, N.B.
62.7%Conservative MP Ray BoughenPalliser, Sask. 47%Conservative MP
Garry Breitkreuz Yorkton-Melville, Sask. 68.9%Conservative MP Barry
Devolin Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Ont.60%Conservative MP
Peter Goldring Edmonton East, Alta. 52.%Conservative MP Laurie
HawnEdmonton Centre, Alta. 48%Conservative MP Russ HiebertSouth
Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale, B.C. 54.6%Conservative MP Gerald
Keddy South Shore-St. Margarets, N.S. 43.1%Conservative MP Greg
Kerr West Nova, N.S. 47%Conservative MP Ed Komarnicki Souris-Moose
Mountain, Sask.74%Conservative MP James LunneyNanaimo-Alberni,
B.C.46.4%Conservative MP Colin Mayes Okanagan-Shuswap,
B.C.55.4%Conservative MP Rob Merrield Yellowhead,
Alta.77%Conservative MP Gordon OConnor Carleton-Mississippi Mills,
Ont.57%Conservative MP Rick NorlockNorthumberland-Quinte West,
Ont.53.8%Conservative MP LaVar Payne Medicine Hat,
Alta.71.5%Conservative MP Joe PrestonElgin-Middlesex-London,
Ont.57.5%Conservative MP Gary Schellenberger Perth-Wellington,
Ont.54.5%Conservative MP Brian Storseth Westlock-St. Paul,
Alta.77.8%Conservative MP Maurice Vellacott Saskatoon-Wanuskewin,
Sask.58.4%Conservative MP Pat Davidson Sarnia-Lambton, Ont.52%Mr.
Speer is taking the lead role in writing the Con-servative Partys
election plat-form. Conservative sources told The Hill Times that
most of the campaign promis-es will be taken out of the governments
2015 budget, to be tabled by Finance Minister Joe Oliver in the
coming months. Before joining the PMO, Mr. Speer worked for the
Fraser Institute as an as-sociate director, and as policy director
to former nance minister Jim Flaherty.Mr. Hawkins, who moved from
being the chief in International Trade Minister Ed Fasts ofce to
principal secretary in the Prime Min-isters Ofce in December, is
expected to travel with the PM in the next election campaign. In
2011, he ran the Conservative Partys second-ary election tour in
which Cabinet ministers travel outside their ridings to boost other
candidates.Mr. van Vugt is current-ly overseeing the Conser-vative
Partys nomination process across the coun-try. During the election
campaign, hes expected to work closely with Mr. De-Lorey to put out
political fires and oversee the overall campaign operations.Mr. van
Vugt, former chief of staff to Bal Gosal, minister of state for
amateur sport, was appointed to the top party job in July. He
succeeded Dimitri Soudas, who was let go after he made national
headlines for using his party position to support his ance,
Conservative MP Eve Adams, nomination campaign. Mr. DeLorey, a Nova
Sco-tia native, in the past served as the Conservative Partys
director of communications.Mr. Hann, who joined the party
headquarters as communications director in 2013, was an exempt
staffer to then-democratic reform minister Tim Uppal and former
intergovernmental affairs minister Peter Penashue.Tory MPs Not
Running In 2015 So Far:Conservative Partys 2011 Election Campaign
ExpensesParty electionexpense limit: $20,995,088.91Total spent on
election: $19.4-millionAdvertising: Radio & Television:
$10.4-million Other:$167,904 Election surveys & research:
$369,263 National campaignoffce expenses:$397,044 Professional
Services: $2,345,324 Leaders Tour:$2,661,660 Travel
(ExcludingLeaders Tour):$29,708 Salaries and wages:
$758,210Other:$2,319,393September 2014 Quarterly:Contributions:
$4.2-millionNumber of Contributors: 35,2012014 Financial Returns to
date: Total Fundraised: $14.6-millionTotal Donors:102,803Compiled
from Elections Canada nancial returns.Power & Inf luence Winter
201513ELECTION2015The NDP will run its biggest campaign yet in
2015, with a focus on emphasizing Thomas Mulcairs leadership and
providing voters with concrete examples of what a rst-ever NDP
federal government would look like. This will be a bigger campaign
than we have run before. It will be more complex, it will be
larger, it will have more moving pieces and it will have all of
those advantages of having provided the level of united and
disciplined opposition that weve been able to provide, says Anne
McGrath, the NDPs national director and national campaign director
for 2015.byLAURARYCKEWAERTBehind the NDPs 2015Since stepping into
the role of offcial opposition for the frst time in 2011, the NDP
has done much to revamp and ramp up its internal operations, hiring
new party pollsters and a new advertising company, setting up new
voter information database software to replace its old NDP Vote
system, and seeking new expertise on how to reach out to
voters.election campaignNDP Leader Tom Mulcair pictured in Ottawa
in April 2014 with adviser Geoffrey Chambers, left, and staffer
George Smith. P&I photograph by Jake WrightPower & Inf
luence Winter 201514Since stepping into the role of ofcial
opposition for the rst time in 2011, the NDP has done much to
revamp and ramp up its internal operations, hiring new party
pollsters and a new advertising company, setting up new voter
information database software to replace its old NDP Vote system,
and seeking new expertise on how to reach out to voters. Overseeing
this work is NDP matriarch Ms. Mc-Grath, former chief of staff to
the late NDP leader Jack Layton, who was recruited back to party
headquarters as national director last April after a stint at
Ottawa lobby rm Ensight Canada. All three major parties have
already unofcially kicked off the 2015 campaign, which is expected
to be a three-party race. For the NDP, thats meant sending Mr.
Mulcair on the road to meet with Canadians and make specic,
concrete policy announcements, like the $15-a-day national
childcare program announced back in October. The party has also
been moving closer to the centre with its policy stances in an
effort to reach out to new voters, recently supporting the
Canada-Korea free trade agreement, for example. With so many new
ele-ments, including a new leader in Mr. Mulcair, Ms. McGrath
brings a sense of continuity and familiarity to the cam-paign. Shes
expected to be an asset in helping the party keep connected with
its past, navigate regional quirks and develop a policy platform
that gels with the base, particularly given recent efforts to move
the party closer to center and the negative effect such efforts had
recently with Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath. Shes very good at
listen-ing to and reading people, she understands nuance in people.
For the NDP, thats very important because its a party made up of
people who are real true believers, says Robin Sears, a former NDP
strategist whos now a principal at Earn-scliffe Strategy Group.At
the beginning of December, the NDP had 45 candidates nominated and
roughly 100 candidates were nominated by January. The core campaign
team is already in place, says Ms. McGrath. But the partys keeping
mum on names.The NDP campaign teamNDP MPs Alexandre Boulerice and
Jean Crowder are the campaign co-chairs, while party president
Rebecca Blaikie is the Quebec cam-paign manager and has a key role
to play on the road to forming government. As campaign co-chairs,
Ms. Crowder and Mr. Bouler-ice have been serving as liai-sons
between the party and the federal caucus on policy and campaign
ideas.New Democratic Partys 2011 Election Campaign ExpensesParty
electionexpense limit: $21,025,793Total spent on 2011 election:
$20,319,567Advertising: Radio & Television: $9,511,705
Other:$1,444,937 Election surveys & research: $1,543,619
National campaignoffce expenses:$633,098 Professional Services:
$156,770 Leaders Tour:$4,314,365 Travel (ExcludingLeaders
Tour):$430,452 Salaries and wages: $1,866,640
Other:$417,977September 2014 Quarterly
Contributions:$1.7-million2014 Financial Returns to date Total
Donors 67,290 Total Fundraised:$5,759, 729ELECTION2015**Limit is
calculated by multiplying the number of names on the preliminary
list of electors for each riding in which the party is running a
candidate by $0.70 (as set out in the Canada Elections Act).
Compiled from Elections Canada Returns12 34689571. Jeremy Bird.2.
Veteran staffer Karl Blanger.3. Media staffer Marc Andr Viau.4. NDP
MP Alexandre Boulerice.5. NDP MP Jean Crowder.6. NDP president and
Quebec campaign manager Rebecca Blaikie.7. NDP digital director
Michael Roy.8. National campaign director Anne McGrath9. Senior
staffer George Soule.P&I photos by Jake Wright and handoutsThe
NDP has been actively working with former advisers from U.S.
President Barack Obamas 2008 campaign against Hillary Clinton for
the Democratic nomination, specifically Jeremy Bird and his firm,
270 Strategies.Power & Inf luence Winter 201515When the writ
drops, Mr. Boulerice, whos become well known among Quebec voters
since rst being elected in 2011, will be an active spokesperson and
public face for the party in the province (alongside Ms. Blaikie),
while Ms. Crowder, whos already announced she wont seek
re-election, will be working to support the campaign, including
helping out the partys new can-didates in southern B.C.George
Soule, associate director of media for the party, is expected to
play a senior communications role. James Pratt, who worked as a eld
organizer for the par-ty prior to 2011 and after the last election
spent time focused on MP set-up and support before taking on his
current role as the partys director of organization, will play a
leading role.Veteran NDP staffer Karl Blanger, currently principal
secretary to the leader, is expected to play a senior role, and the
partys digital director since June, Michael Roy, is also set to be
part of the core cam-paign team.Danielle Sampson, previously the
Ca-nadian Federation of Students Nova Scotia national
representative whos recently been doing eld organization work at
party head-quarters, will join the campaign team, as will David
Hare, another CFS alumnus whos now the partys director of eld
operations. Recently-departed senior caucus press secretary
Marc-Andr Viau, now working for the party out of Quebec, is
expected to work on the campaign, as are most staff cur-rently
working in the NDP leaders ofce.The partys central campaign war
room will be located in party ofces at Bank Street and Laurier Ave.
West. The building is owned by the NDP, with its ofces on the top
oor, and also serves as collateral for the party should it need a
loan. Some help from Obama in the fundraising battleThe NDP has
done much to increase its fundraising operations since 2011 and is
bringing in more per quarter than in years past, and from more
donors. But Conser-vative and Liberal fundraising operations have
also improved, and the NDP has con-sistently been raising less. The
NDP paid off the last of its roughly $5-million 2011 campaign debt
in 2013-14.As the party is quick to point out, it raised and spent
right up to the expense limit last election. But with the election
already unofcially underway, pre-writ spending is more important
than ever and the cash-rich Conservatives have already begun lling
the radio airwaves with political ads.You need a big pot of gold to
play in that [pre-writ] game, says Mr. Sears. Far from burying its
head in the sand, the party has been working to counter an
antici-pated nancial disadvantage through planning, and has been
actively working with former advisers from U.S. President Barack
Obamas 2008 campaign against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic
nomination, specically Jeremy Bird and his rm, 270 Strategies. Mr.
Obamas comparatively cash-strapped 2008 nomination campaign used
innovative tactics, enabled by social media, to encourage a large
and enthusiastic grassroots campaign connecting supporters by
common interests across electoral districts and encouraging them to
work together to get Mr. Obama elected. The discussions have been
more than discussions. There have been very active training
sessions where theyve been trying to help the Obama people
understand the peculiarities of the Canadian system in or-der to
translate the American learnings into a Canadian context, says Mr.
Sears. But its not all good news for the NDP. While the party will
benet from a larger incumbent slate, the popularity of the Liberals
and the undeniable advantage the Conservative party holds in
standing alone on the right present big challenges to the NDPs
hopes of forming government. Despite the NDP being ofcial
oppo-sition, Conservative rhetoric this past year has focused on
attacking Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, and the NDP has similarly
worked to attack Liberals on the policy front and establish itself
as the only real progressive alternative to Prime Minsiter Stephen
Harper, something the Liberals are also aiming to do as a split
vote on the left means a victory for the right.Byelections
throughout 2014 suggest some cause for NDP concern. The party lost
a coveted downtown Toronto seat, Trini-ty-Spadina, to the Liberals,
and its share of the popular vote was down from 2011 in ve others.
The NDP also consistently trailed behind the third-party Liberals
in political polls last year and the party hasnt fared well in a
number of recent provincial elections. But Ms. McGrath says the NDP
was down in the polls ahead of the last election as well.One thing
polls cant account for are swing voters, and experts predict a
volatile electorate in 2015. Undecided voters often avoid politics
until the writ ofcially drops, says Greg Lyle, owner of Innovative
Research Group. One of the jobs of the NDP campaign at the
beginning of the new writ is going to be to introduce Mulcair to
people that hav-ent been paying attention, says Mr. Lyle.Specic
policy announcements not only t with the NDPs plan to give
Canadians a clear idea of what an NDP government would look like,
they also serve as import-ant practice runs for staff ahead of the
2015 leaders tour, says Shay Purdy, a consultant at Summa
Strategies who worked on the NDPs 2011 campaign.Were seeing a lot
of these cam-paign-style events and campaign-style tours taking
place in the lead-up to the campaign because its very important for
the leader and the team around him to nd that rhythm and nd that
level of perfor-mance thats going to be required right off the bat,
says Mr. Purdy.The NDPs 2015 leaders tour will also be shaped by
the fact the party has its largest-ev-er roster of incumbent MPs
heading into the election, even with recent MP departures.Thanks to
2013s electoral redistribu-tion, parties will be working with 30
new ridings and re-jigged riding boundaries in 2015, which have
improved the NDPs electoral chances with the creation of new, urban
ridings in Western Canada, particu-larly in Saskatchewan.The NDP
came a close second (with a vote margin of ten per cent or less) in
21 ridings across Canada in 2011, pre-dominantly in Quebec,
Saskatchewan and British Columbia, and the party has these ridings
and otherslike the newly-con-stituted riding of Edmonton-Griesbach,
Alta.in its crosshairs.Ms. McGrath says other target ridings
include Egmont, P.E.I., where former provincial NDP leader Herb
Dickieson has been nominat-ed as a candidate; as well as
Elmwood-Transco-na, Man., where Daniel Blaikie, son to former MP
Bill Blaikie and brother to current president Rebecca, is running
as a candidate. While the Liberals are polling high on a national
level, the NDP benets from more regionally concentrated support,
says Mr. Lyle.The NDP have never come into an election with such a
strong win in a previous election. Theyre clear second in terms of
seats, and thats important, says Mr. Lyle. Pollsters widely agree
that the NDP needs to hold onto a majority of its current 59 seats
in Quebec to maintain its ofcial opposition status, let alone win
government, and that gaining ground in seat-rich Ontario will also
be key, particularly in southern Ontario and the Greater Toronto
Area. ELECTION2015ELECTION2015The Liberals have decided their bid
to form government in the 42nd Parliament will be won on the
ground, with a focus on bringing in prominent candidates and making
use of a well-cur-ated data component. There has been a clear
switch in messaging from the rebuilding banners behind former
interim leader Bob Rae to building the team, building the plan that
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeaus team has coineda slight semantic
change that marks a signicant shift in approach. Nothing in
politics is accidental, especially in this elongated election
season, and the core team driving the bus for the Liberal Party
across Canada is planning each component. The decision not to
release policy yet, according to Liberal sources, has everything to
do with their runway of a year of good polling to comfortably
launch them into an election campaign, and less to do with the
notion that the party is soft on policy. The party insiders say
theyre condent that supporters know where Mr. Trudeau stands and
the rest of the country will know well in advance of marking their
ballots. The decision to recruit political newcomers is part of
bolstering the change narrative the party is banking on. From each
bullet point on party pamphlets and the gimmicks used in
fundraising emails, to the stops the plane will be making and the
focus of the federal debatethese are the core people behind the
decisions. Theyve all been advising Mr. Trudeau since his
suc-cessful leadership campaign in 2013, and will lead him into his
rst federal election as the Liberal leader. The A Team: Katie
Telford: National Campaign Co-Chair Katie Telford, according to
Liberals, is a good thinker and planner with a steady hand on the
numbers, gauging where support is coming from, or where the focus
should be. Described by National Party Director Jeremy Broadhurst
as having one of the best strategic pol-itical minds in the
country, she closely monitors the emails that come in and the
response garnered from the partys pitches, whether it be related to
policy or establishing what fundraising resonates. Shes also built
up what has been described as a quite brilliant micro-targeted
approach seen in emails to supporters, with subject lines like Can
you check this? making some political insiders think Ms. Telford
had person-ally emailed them for assistance. Katie Telfords ability
to modernize the anti-quated Liberal fundraising machine has been
quite remarkable, not just in its ability to raise money and
increase donors, but in terms of providing feedback about what
messages are working and who they are working with, says Greg
MacEachern, vice-president at Environics Communications and a
former Liberal Hill staffer. So some of those small donations are
actually perhaps more about indicating what policy or statements
are resonating with different groups. byRACHELAI ELLOThe key
players in the Liberals 2015 federal election campaignLiberal
Leader Justin Trudeau pictured on Parliament Hill. P&I
photograph by Jake WrightDan Gagnier: National Campaign Co-ChairDan
Gagnier has been in the political game for nearly as long as Mr.
Trudeau and many of the other Liberal staff have been alive. A
veteran hand out of Quebec, Mr. Gagnier has served as chief of
staff to former Quebec premier Jean Charest, as well as chief of
staff to former Ontario premier David Peterson. Mr. Gagnier has
also worked on many campaigns at various levels and spent time at
both the Privy Council Ofce and the Department of Foreign Affairs,
and in the private sector with the Energy Policy Insti-tute of
Canada, Alcan and Beer Canada. Hes the type of guy who has seen
many situations here in Canada and brings to the table all of that
experience so we can just turn to him and say, What do you think of
this, or what do you think of that? says Louis-Alex-andre Lanthier,
senior adviser at Summa Strategies and former aide and campaign
director to Mr. Trudeaus campaign in Papineau, Que. Mr. Gagnier is
able to tell the team what has and hasnt worked in the past, Mr.
Lanthier says, and he can also tap into a vast network of other
experienced strategists.Gerald Butts: Principal AdviserGerry Butts
is a long-time friend of Mr. Trudeau and his most trusted condant.
Hes known for being able to sit and talk an issue out with him,
with ease. Hes considered among Liberal insiders to be the big
thinker and is the go-to guy that many other top staff rely on for
advice or insight into how to handle situationsfrom managing a
story in the media to what policies and campaign platform planks
will be announced, and when. According to Liberal insiders, Mr.
Butts and Ms. Telford are the ones really pulling the strings and
calling the shots. He will be travelling alongside the Liberal
leader throughout the campaign and will play an integral role in
sculpting the election strategy. He, alongside Mike McNair and
Robert Asselin (each proled below), will hold daily policy briengs,
conferring both with Mr. Trudeau and over email or phone calls with
the team in the war room. Based in Toronto, Mr. Butts has a high
prole in Ottawa and online where, as Mr. MacEachern puts it, he
isnt afraid to mix it up with a Cabinet minister. There also seems
to be no more than six degrees of separation between him and other
top Liberal advisers, either from crossing paths at Queens Park
during his time as principal secretary to Ontario premier Dalton
Mc-Guinty or during his tenure as president and CEO of the World
Wildlife Fund (WWF). Mike McNair: Lead Policy AdviserMike McNair
will be the top man in the Liberal policy shop in the elec-tion.
Hes played a simi-lar role under both Mi-chael Ignatieff and Mr.
Dion, as well as acting as head of the Liberal research bureau and,
between 2011-2013, as a man-ager of strategy and operations
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Hes the man writing the policies and is known to be the go-to when
questions are asked about how the Liberals can best approach an
issue that aligns with the partys focus. Having a high prole within
the party over the last number of years and having been the policy
guy for two former leaders that werent success-ful will surely be
on his mind moving forward. Helping Mr. NcNair in the policy
drafting process will be caucus critics feeding information inside
as well as pulling in whats being heard as Mr. Trudeau meets with
groups across the country. As Mr. Broadhurst puts it, two people
holed up in the leaders ofce wont formulate the policy book. Expect
it to be encapsulated in their middle-class target.Robert
Asselin:Strategist and policy adviser Robert Asselin will have two
key jobs in the 2015 election. The rst is preparing Mr. Trudeau for
debates. The second is formulat-ing policy developments and big
ideas into bite-sized and franco-phone-friendly sound bytes to be
incorporated in speeches. The message should have broad appeal but
also answer the question, What would a Liberal government in Canada
in 2015 under Justin Trudeau look like? Mr. MacEachern says. Not an
easy task, but Mr. Asselin has experience as a senior ofcial in
past Liberal ministerial ofces, as well as in the PMO under Paul
Martin. He was re-cently appointed vice president of policy and
research at Canada 2020 think-tank.The other central players on the
campaign team all have an idea of the role they will be playing
when the writ drops, including a handful of Mr. Trudeaus ofce staff
who will be taking an unpaid leave to work on the campaign, on the
partys dime.There will be the concentrated team on the plane, the
top ve and possibly others to be determined, and then the remaining
40 or so people at campaign head-quarters, which turns into the
Liberals war room. Communications: Communications for the Liberals
during the election will be divided between Kate Purchase, left,
who will act as director of English communications, Mylne Dupr,
right, as director of Quebec communications, and Olivier
Duchesneau, upper right, communications manager and spokesperson
for the Liberal Party. Although not set in stone yet, it is
anticipated that Mr. Duchesneau will remain at party headquarters
and oversee the communications crew in the war room, while Ms. Dupr
and Ms. Purchase, who normally work in the leaders ofce, will be
involved managing the messaging along the campaign trail, dealing
with reporters and media appearances. Expect to see more of the
messaging the party has been rolling with since Mr. Trudeau was
elected. According to party insiders, hope and hard work isnt going
anywhere, and its likely other lines will come forward as policy
planks are revealed. Leaders Office:Other staff in the leaders ofce
expected to take leaves for the campaign trail include: Marlene
Floyd, as director of operations and outreach: Ms. Floyd will have
a big hand in planning the leaders tour, heading up the team of
current and new staff that will logistically sort out the ve Ws for
each leg of the campaign, from all the mundane necessities like
audio-visual equipment and feeding the journalists to ight or other
travel plans. Ms. Floyd left her position at Earnscliffe Strat-egy
Group to work for Mr. Trudeau. Marci Surkes, who is part of the
policy branch, will be working with Mr. McNair from a temporary
seat at the Liberal HQ. Kevin Bosch, senior research adviser, will
also be a part of the war room, as he has been for a number of
elections. Accord-ing to Liberal sources, it has yet to be
determined whether Mr. Trudeaus chief of staff, Cyrus Reporter,
will be moving into the war room for this election. He has previous
war-room experience from former prime minister Paul Martins 2005
election campaign.Ofcial photographer Adam Scotti will be
travelling alongside Mr. Trudeau throughout the campaign, as seen
throughout 2014s many byelec-tions, book signing stops and cultural
festivals. Mr. Trudeaus assistant Tommy Desfosss role has yet to be
solidied. The Data-Driven Duo: The Liberals have been working to
put in place a digital and data-driven get-out-the-vote system,
making key investments in the people they have and how its set up
to make sure theyre on the cutting-edge. The party has been
building Power & Inf luence Winter 201518ELECTION2015Liberal
Partys 2011 Election Campaign ExpensesParty electionexpense limit:
$21,025,793.18Total spent on election: $19.5-millionAdvertising:
Radio & Television: $8.3-million Other:$3.6-million Election
surveys & research: $1-million National campaignoffce
expenses:$1-million Professional Services: $168,775 Leaders
Tour:$3.5-million Travel (ExcludingLeaders Tour):$145,908 Salaries
and wages: $1.2-million Other:$578,258September 2014
Quarterly:Contributions: $3.3-million Number of Contributors:34,953
Liberal 2014 Financial Returns To Date: Total Donors: 102,170 Total
Fundraised: $11.3-millionCompiled from Elections Canada Returnsup
its expertise on Liberalist, a Wash-ington-originated,
sophisticated voter outreach system theyve been adding data to for
years, but in a more concentrated way in all 338 riding
associations since the nomination process began. According to
Liberal sources, Adam Carroll, whose formal title is national
cam-paign mobilization manager, will be involved. Hes one of the
LPC members who has been working on the get-out-the-vote system
(GOTV) since he joined the party staff in 2012, following his
dismissal as a Liberal Parliamentary staffer over the infamous
Vikileaks Twitter page. Described by party insiders as a smart guy,
its clear his role in the next election will be integral to making
the best use of the database. Working closely with Mr. Caroll will
be Richard Maksymetz, senior director for campaign mobilization,
who over the last number of months has been using each byelection
as a practice run to make sure things are ring on all cylinders, as
one source put it. Its a highly operational role and involves
guiding political organization through the use of digital and
data-sourced GOTV information. Social Media, Polls and Advertising:
Another component of the partys data focus, yet to be fully eshed
out, will be its approach to social media and the use of focus
groups. One of the key faces on this front will likely be Suzanne
Cowan, who worked for Mr. Trudeaus leadership campaign. Ms. Cowan,
the daughter of opposition leader in the Senate James Cowan, will
be working in some communications or advertising role. The
advertising rm the party will be using, according to sources, has
not been rmed up yet, although those who know were not were willing
to conrm publicly. In past elections the Liberals have used Red
Leaf. The pollster the party will be relying on is Toronto-based
Gandalf Group. David Herle, a former Liberal strategist for Paul
Martin and, most recently, Kathleen Wynnes 2014 election win, and
his team werent involved in the last federal election but were
brought in following their work on Mr. Trudeaus leadership
campaign.Fundraising: While some thought the partys early
fundraising success following Mr. Trudeaus leadership win was
little more than a honeymoon effect, the latest quar-ters numbers
indicate otherwise. Theyve been upping the number of donors, over
30,000 each quarter, for the last six quarters. The two people
pointed to as deserving the credit for the amount of money being
raised are Christina Topp, se-nior director of fundraising, and
Stephen Bronfman, chief revenue chair.Ms. Topp, who knows Mr. Butts
from their days fundraising at the WWF, will continue to be in
charge of developing the fundraising plan. Ms. Topp will also
report to Mr. Bronfman. As the head of his own investment rm, and
part of the Seagrams liquor family, Mr. Bronfmans signature at the
bottom of an email or letter goes a long way, or at least ensures
it gets opened, when trying to pull in big business or private
donors. Mr. Bronfman is considered to be at the top of the partys
fundraising chain.Power & Inf luence Winter 201519test.indd 1
14-12-17 10:19 AMELECTION2015Power & Inf luence Winter
201520POLLSPOLLS MIGHT BE MORE Public opinion: Protesters pictured
on Parliament Hill last year. On April 21, 2011, La Presse reported
on the results of a new poll from CROP. For the rst time in the
polling rms history, the New Democrats were polling in rst place in
the province. The Bloc had dropped into second. The political
landscape in Quebec was about to be transformed. P&I photo by
Jake WrightAs long as polls are done accurately, they directly and
indirectly provide the kind of information voters can choose to
take into account when casting a ballot. Infuential? You bet. But
with great power.byRI CGRENI ER Which came rst, the chicken or the
egg? Its a question that can be applied to the world of political
public opinion poll-ing. In an election campaign, do promising
polls for a party lead to strong results at the ballot box, or are
polls merely capturing a groundswell in public support?In the end,
polls might be more of a self-fullling prophecy.At the beginning of
the 2011 federal election campaign, the lay of the land was well
known. The Conservatives were aiming for a majority they were
unlikely to get. The Liberals had not managed to connect with
voters to any signif-icant degree and would struggle to seriously
challenge for government. The New Democrats were more of a thorn in
the Liberals side than a plausible alternative, while Gilles
Duceppes Bloc Qubcois looked on track to win a majority of Quebecs
seats, yet again.Of course, things did not turn out that way. And
the rst indication that they would not came on April 21.That day,
La Presse reported on the results of a new poll from CROP. For the
rst time in the polling rms history, the New Democrats were polling
in rst place in the province. The Bloc had dropped into second. The
political landscape in Quebec was about to be transformed.It was a
shock. At least one pollster had seen these numbers before CROP
did, but went back into the eld to double check before publishing
such a bombshell. From that moment on, the New Demo-crats had all
of the momentum and before long surpassed the Liberals in national
sup-port. On election night, the NDP nished 12 points ahead of the
Liberals, a party they were trailing by 10 points before the
campaign had started.How much inuence did the stronger poll numbers
for the NDP in Quebec have on the rest of the country? The surge in
NDP support occurred between April 18 and 19 in the province,
whereas the rest of Canada saw spikes in NDP support at different
times. In Atlantic Canada and the Prairies, the NDPs numbers inched
up slowly but consistently. In British Colum-bia, the uptick
coincided with the one in Quebec. But in Ontario, the New
Dem-ocrats only saw signicant growth after April 23, two days after
the CROP poll was published in La Presse.According to Google
Trends, more Cana-dians were searching for Ignatieff than they were
Layton at the outset of the campaign. Searches for Ignatieff were
more frequent than those for Layton straight through to April 18.
On April 19, however, the two search terms were tied, with Layton
being a slightly more popular search term on April 21, and
signicantly so from April 26. This would seem to suggest that the
polls may have had a positive effect on the NDPs
SELF-FULFILLINGPROPHECYsupport in the rest of the country, but that
the New Democrats were indeed seeing a shift before that CROP poll
was published. It was a benecial cycle for the partyincreased
support led to better polls, which led to even higher support. The
media picked up on the NDPs newfound challenger status, and the
campaign was transformed.Polls can have other effects on a
political race, however. The lead the Liberals put together in the
polls after Justin Trudeaus leadership victory undoubtedly boosted
their fundraising efforts and their ability to attract good
candidates. Would Adam Vaughan, who wrestled the riding of
Trinity-Spadina away from the NDP in a 2014 byelection, have taken
up the Liberal banner if the party was still mired in the low-20s
in public support, or if the New Democrats were leading in the
polls as they did in 2012?The 2014 provincial election campaign in
Quebec was also heavily inuenced by polling. The Parti Qubcois
identied the Charter of Values as a vote winner in part due to the
polls that showed strong support for the measure. Indeed, the PQs
re-election prospects improved only after the plans for the charter
were announced.But that surge in the polls had conse-quences for
the PQ. With the party poised to form a majority government,
questions about its plans for a third sovereign-ty referendum
suddenly be-came relevant. That the PQ was on track for victory
helped con-vince Pierre-Karl Pladeau to take the plunge as a PQ
candidate. The st he pumped into the air as he proclaimed his
intention to help make Quebec a country was the rst act in the PQs
disastrous campaign.The polls were there to record it, accu-rately
tracking the PQs fall from grace. But the polls are not always on
the money, as the 2013 provincial election in British Colum-bia
demonstrated. Even there, however, the inuence of the polls can be
strong. When asked in an Ipsos Reid survey conducted on election
day, before anyone knew what the results would be, almost half of
respondents said they expected the B.C. New Democrats to prevail.
Only a tenth thought the B.C. Liberals would win, as they did.
Green Party supporters, who might have otherwise cast a ballot for
the NDP to keep the Liberals out of power, overwhelmingly expected
the New Democrats to win.There can thus be both positive and
negative aspects to the inuence of public opinion polls. The media,
and many Cana-dians, would have missed a major story had polls not
recorded the surge in the NDPs support in Quebec in 2011. The polls
also encouraged important questions to be asked during the 2014
provincial campaign in the province. On the other hand, the polls
may have unduly inuenced turnout and the choices made in the
campaigns in British Columbia in 2013 and Alberta in 2012, when the
relatively untested Wildrose Party was on track to unseat the
Progressive Con-servatives, only to lose out on election day.But as
long as polls are done accurately, they directly and indirectly
provide the kind of information voters can choose to take into
account when casting a ballot. Inuen-tial? You bet. But with great
power...Power & Inf luence Winter 201521POLLStest.indd 1
14-12-19 2:46 PMThe media, and many Canadians, would have missed a
major story had polls not recorded the surge in the NDPs support in
Quebec in 2011.Power & Inf luence Winter
201522FOREIGNPOLICYAfter managing political survival throughout the
toughest years of Afghanistan, there was a sense of relief within
the Conservative government when the mission nally ended in March
2014. The Prime Ministers Ofce hoped to move military combat and
procurement off the agenda ahead of the 2015 election.Prime
Minister Stephen Harper was preparing for military downsizing in
the fall of 2012 when he appointed low-key General Tom Lawson as
chief of defence staff after a string of outspoken generals who
didnt hesitate to voice their displeasure with the government. When
Rob Nicholson replaced long-serving Defence minister Peter MacKay
in 2013, his job was more to see cuts through than to inspire
condence in the military, or the public. The 2014 budget laid out
plans to cut defence spending by more than $3-billion in the years
ahead.But the government received a rude awakening in the summer of
2014 when reports of mass atroci-ties began to emerge from areas of
Iraq under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
(ISIL). Already under pressure from NATO to increase its defence
budget, the Harper government was asked to lend its support to the
U.S.-led effort in Iraq.As opposition leader, Mr. Harper had
advocated for Canada to join the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.
More than a de-cade later, Prime Minister Harper nds himself in an
Iraq mission he would have preferred to avoid. One senior
government ofcial says that while the Prime Minis-ter was willing
to contribute air support and training to the latest Iraq mission,
he remains reluc-tant to have Canadian troops directly engaged in
combat.In terms of using the military as a combat arm of Canadian
foreign policy, hes evolved into a very suspicious, reluctant and
cau-tious leader, says Thomas Juneau, a former strategic analyst
for the Middle East at the Department of National Defence. The
government now nds itself in the position of lending legitimacy to
the U.S.-led mission in Iraq, he says.Canada has an obvious
interest in seeing the Islamic State weakened and defeated, but its
role is minimal. Whether were there or not will not change that
outcome. Our interest is in being perceived as a good ally to the
U.S. and the Europeans, says Mr. Juneau, now an assistant professor
at the Uni-versity of Ottawas School of Public and International
Affairs.Supporting castUltimately, its the Prime Minister who sets
the direction of Canadas foreign policy in the Middle East, but hes
backed by a supporting cast of political loyal-ists and
bureaucratic pragmatists.Within the PMO, Roy Rempel, the Prime
Ministers defence adviser, is responsible for providing Mr. Harper
with strategic advice, and would have been consulted on the
decision to join the latest mis-sion in Iraq. Hell continue to have
input as time runs out on the gov-ernments initial, six-month
com-mitment in Iraq and Mr. Harper is faced with deciding whether
or not to extend Canadas mission ahead of the 2015 election.Another
key PMO strategist is foreign affairs and trade ad-viser Meredith
Lilly, who joined the PMO as a policy adviser for social affairs in
2012, and took over as foreign policy and trade adviser from Andrea
van Vugt in 2013.Chief of staff Ray Novak and now former deputy
chief Jenni Byrne also have the Prime Min-isters ear when it comes
to the political side of foreign policy. Mr. Novak is very engaged
in for-eign policy, generally, while Ms. Byrne, who recently
returned to the Conservative headquarters, is on good terms with
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior members of the
Likud Party. When then-PCO foreign and defence policy adviser
Chris-tine Hogan had to cancel her ad-vance trip to Israel in
December 2013, it was Ms. Byrne who made the preparatory trip ahead
of the Prime Ministers entourage visit-ing Israel and Jordan in
2014. Whos advising Harper on Iraq and the Middle EastContinued on
Page 57BYCHRI SPLECASH21331. As opposition leader, Stephen Harper
had advocated for Canada to join the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of
Iraq. More than a decade later, Prime Minister Harper nds himself
in an Iraq mission he would have preferred to avoid. 2. Top
advisers Roy Rempel, Meredith Lilly, and Richard Fadden. 3. Foreign
Affairs Minister John Baird, Employment Minister Jason Kenney, and
Justice Minister Peter MacKay. P&I photos by Jake WrightThe Top
100MostPowerful & Influential People in Government &
Politics2015Power & Inf luence Winter 201524PEOPLE1. Stephen
Harper, Prime Minister2. Joe Oliver, Finance Minister3. John Baird,
Foreign Afairs Minister4. Jason Kenney, Employment and Social
Development Minister5. Janice Charette, Privy Council Clerk6. Jenni
Byrne, Conservative Party National Campaign Manager7. Justin
Trudeau, Liberal Party Leader8. Beverley McLachlin, Chief Justice
of the Supreme Court9. Richard Fadden, National Security Adviser to
the Prime Minister10. Thomas Mulcair, NDP Leader11. James Moore,
Industry Minister12. Ray Novak, PMO Chief of Staf13. Paul Rochon,
Deputy Minister of Finance14. Ed Fast, International Trade
Minister15. Diane Finley, Public Works Minister16. Bob Paulson,
RCMP Commissioner17. Daniel Nowlan, Chief of Staf to Finance
Minister Joe Oliver18. Yaprak Baltacioglu, Treasury Board
Secretary19. Laureen Harper, Prime Ministers Wife20. Gerald Butts,
Principal Adviser to Justin Trudeau21. Gary Doer, Canadian
Ambassador to the U.S.22. Sean Speer, PMO Special Adviser23.
Kathleen Wynne, Premier of Ontario24. Stephen Poloz, Governor of
the Bank of Canada25. Howard Anglin, PMO Deputy Chief of StafThe
Top 25Power & Inf luence Winter 201525613-744-5500417ST LAURENT
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N U A R Y 3 1s tWE ARE HERE1300 Michael St.test.indd 1 2014-12-18
4:27 PMBACKSTORYAs journalists, were told that every-one likes
lists. We arent just told this, we notice it as consumers of news
every day, lured by the same headlines that have most readers
biting: Top 10 jobs that attract psychopaths, Top 10 places worse
than Ottawa in January. This list takes a bit more care than your
average click-bait but the reader is, of course, free to con-sume
it as he or she chooses: as pleasurable infotainment, as
contemptible pseudo-social science, or as grounds for adding a line
to the CV and mailing copies of this magazine to relatives,
friends, and enemies.This list is subjective but not whimsical. It
was compiled through a series of off-the-record meetings with
multiple sources who generously gave their time and expertise to
talk about who will matter in 2015. One thing to notice while
consulting for these lists is what Freud called the narcissism of
minor differences. Opinions about those within the political tribe
are often sharper than those from without. For this reason, it was
important to consult staffers and insiders from different parties,
not only to get the scoop on the inner dynamics but to check with
an opposing party about whether people were being too harsh about
their own. And this cuts across all forms of identity politics,
which is why it was also important to consult a roughly equal
number of men and women.The list is forward-looking, taking into
ac-count a persons projected inuence in 2015, an important year in
federal politics. We dont go as far as considering potential
ministers in a future government, or future party leaders after the
election falloutan exercise that would not only make us look
foolish but would also make for dull readingbut those in positions
to signicantly impact the 2015 federal elections outcome are
especially inuential this year. Theres also a rather signicant
federal budget this winter that will feed directly into the
Conservative election platform and inuence the ballot question.
Those involved in the budgets craftingfrom the nance minister and
his key staffers to the PMO to the departmentalso have outsize
representation on the list.Without further ado, we bring you the
Eighth Annual Top 100 Most Powerful and In-uential list. We hope
you enjoy the read. Please feel free to let us know either
way.byMARKBURGESSHow the Top100 List is MadePower & Inf luence
Winter 201526TOP25If 2013 was Prime Minister Stephen Harpers most
mis-erable year of his nine and counting at 24 Sussex Dr., 2014 has
seen a gradual, and some would say improb-able, rebound. The year
began after a challenging fall in which neither a Throne Speech nor
a Conservative Party convention in Harper territory managed to
change the channel on the Senate scandal that had cost him
political capital and his valuable chief of staff, Nigel Wright.
Facing the daily QP pummelling from an invigorated Thomas Mulcair,
speculation persisted that Mr. Harper would step aside early and
let someone else reverse the partys fortunes in the 2015 federal
election. That speculation certainly hasnt vanished but it is
losing credibility. Mr. Harper spent the year playing the
interna-tional strongman in Ukraine and Israel, and slowly moving
the discussion on the Hill away from Senate expenses to justice,
national security and the economy, much more comfortable territory
for the incumbent. Since the Oct. 22 shootings at the National War
Memorial and on Parlia-ment Hill, Mr. Harper has been rising
steadily in the polls, and hes managed to make news by fullling
2011 election promises, most notably tax breaks for families at
campaign-style events in the Greater Toronto Area, while the
opposi-tion parties were left in Ottawa to answer questions about
some very unpleasant sexual harassment allegations. And Harper has
one big trick left: a budget early this year that will double as a
campaign platform, one whose once-substantial surplus will largely
be spoken for, hamstringing his opponents as they develop their own
pitches for the hustings. In his best-case scenario, 2015 will be a
year of history making, winning a rare, fourth-straight mandate; in
the worst case, it will be the year when the unthinkable
happenedlosing to a Trudeau.Prime MinisterStephen Harper 1Prime
Minister Stephen Harper, pictured with the Aga Khan in Ottawa on
Feb. 27, 2014. P&I photograph by Jake Wright Power &
Influence Winter 201527Theunlikely messengerWith the Conservative
election strategy bulls-eye on Justin Trudeau and the attempts to
characterize him as the in-over-his-head risky leader who thinks
the budgetwill balance itself, Joe Oliver,the occasionally
brusqueex-banker, is a suitable foil.Everyones eyes are on Joe
Oliver. Everyones hands are out, too. The former investment banker
who took the top economic job in the country last March has become
perhaps the most popular person in Ottawa in the lead-up to the
next federal budget. His caucus colleagues approach him several
times a day. On a ight home from Australia in November, two Air
Canada ight attendants wanted to know more about his