Potential Nordic Issuers 2018 15 December 2017 Investment Research www.danskebank.com/CI This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors. Senior Analyst Mads Rosendal +45 40 44 67 56 [email protected] Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report.
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Potential Nordic Issuers 2018
15 December 2017
Investment Researchwww.danskebank.com/CI
This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research
reports prepared for retail investors.
Senior Analyst
Mads Rosendal
+45 40 44 67 56
Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report.
2
Methodology and assumptions
We aim to provide an overview of potential Nordic corporate issuers in 2018.
For the sake of simplicity, we limit ourselves to the Danske Bank DCM Research coverage universe and we
exclude Financials and distressed issuers.
We use a two-tiered approach based on funding surplus (deficit) and upcoming redemptions.
The funding surplus (deficit) is defined as:
– cash and equivalents (including marketable securities) + CFO (E) – capex (E) – ST debt – dividends.
We disregard short-term debt composition and acknowledge that, in many cases, ST debt will be rolled without
issuing bonds (e.g. CPs or deposit funding).
For listed companies, we use Bloomberg consensus estimates for CFO and capex, for unlisted companies we
use Danske Bank DCM Research estimates and company guidance.
Our list of upcoming redemptions is pulled from Bloomberg using <SRCH>GO and picking Nordic corporate
bonds maturing between 15 January 2018 and 30 June 2019. (We have extended the maturity period relative to
previous versions of this research piece due to expectations of high pre-funding levels in 2018.)
To assess the likelihood of replacement, we measure the redemption size (in LCY) relative to total debt.
Disclaimer: due to time constraints, data provided by Bloomberg has not been cross-checked and conclusions
from this analysis are based on the premise that the data provided is correct.
3
Theoretical funding surplus (deficit)*
*Estimated using Bloomberg consensus, and company data. Funding surplus (deficit) defined as: Cash and equivalents + CFO (E) – capital expenditures (E) – dividends – short-term debt
Source: Bloomberg, company data, Danske Bank DCM Research estimates
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
91%
71%
57%55%
52% 50%
42%39%
37%
31% 30%26%
23%19%
15% 14%
8% 6% 6% 4% 2% 1%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
EU
Rm
Estimated Funding surplus (deficit) incl. Credit facilities (EURm) Estimated Funding surplus (deficit) ex. Credit facilities (EURm) Theoretical RCF usage (%)
Nordic bond maturities by currency (15/01/2018 - 30/06/2019)*
*Excluding Financials and distressed issuers and limited to names under coverage by Danske Bank DCM Research. Source: Bloomberg SRCH<GO>
5
EUR redemptions
6.3%
2.7%0.8%
18.6%16.5%
4.3%3.7%5.3%
2.7%4.7%
1.5%
12.3%
4.4%4.5%4.3%3.1%
8.4%
44.6%
3.5%
7.7%8.3%
5.1%
17.6%
3.9%
21.7%
5.7%
1.8%1.8%
10.8%
5.8%
2.5%2.3%2.3%
6.2%
10.5%
19.7%
3.8%
15.9%
26.3%
10.7%
2.3%
8.8%11.1%
5.3%
8.8%
11.5%
58.8%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000
Te
len
or
AS
A (1
5/0
1/2
018)
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (1
9/0
2/2
01
8)
Sto
ra E
nso O
YJ (2
2/0
2/2
018)
TD
C A
/S (2
3/0
2/2
018)
Securita
s A
B (1
4/0
3/2
018)
Sta
tkra
ft A
S (1
5/0
3/2
01
8)
Sto
ra E
nso O
YJ (1
9/0
3/2
018)
SA
TO
Oyj (
20/0
3/2
018)
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (0
3/0
5/2
01
8)
Mets
o O
YJ (1
3/0
5/2
01
8)
Sto
ra E
nso O
YJ (2
3/0
5/2
018)
SK
F A
B (2
5/0
5/2
018)
Vatte
nfa
ll A
B (1
8/0
6/2
018)
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (2
0/0
6/2
01
8)
Neste
Oyj (
29/0
6/2
018
)
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (0
3/0
8/2
01
8)
Fin
na
ir O
YJ (2
9/0
8/2
018)
Kesko
OY
J (1
1/0
9/2
018)
Investo
r A
B
(17/0
9/2
018)
Spon
da O
YJ (0
9/1
0/2
018)
Scania
CV
AB
(2
4/1
0/2
018)
Essity A
B (2
7/1
1/2
018
)
G4S
In
tern
ational F
inan
ce P
LC
…
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (1
2/1
2/2
01
8)
SR
V G
roup O
YJ (1
8/1
2/2
018)
Vatte
nfa
ll A
B (3
1/0
1/2
019)
Ste
na
AB
(0
1/0
2/2
019
)
Ste
na
AB
(0
1/0
2/2
019
)
Te
olli
suu
den V
oim
a O
yj…
Nokia
OY
J (0
4/0
2/2
019)
Scania
CV
AB
(1
3/0
2/2
019)
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (1
3/0
2/2
01
9)
Te
lia C
o A
B
(18/0
2/2
019)
Sto
ra E
nso O
YJ (0
7/0
3/2
019)
Mets
a B
oa
rd O
YJ (1
3/0
3/2
019
)
Atlas C
opco A
B (1
5/0
3/2
019)
AP
Molle
r -
Maers
k A
/S…
Fo
rtum
OY
J (2
0/0
3/2
019)
Ram
irent O
YJ
(21/0
3/2
019)
Sta
tkra
ft A
S (0
2/0
4/2
01
9)
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (0
3/0
4/2
01
9)
Sw
ed
ish M
atc
h A
B (0
3/0
4/2
019)
SS
AB
AB
(1
0/0
4/2
01
9)
SA
TO
Oyj (
16/0
4/2
019)
Ors
ted A
/S (0
7/0
5/2
019)
Kem
ira O
YJ (2
7/0
5/2
019)
St1
Nord
ic O
y (0
4/0
6/2
019)
Red
em
pti
on
am
ou
nt
rela
tive t
o t
ota
l d
eb
t
EU
R
Source: Bloomberg <SRCH>GO
6
SEK redemptions (1 of 3)
1%1%
3%
1%
4%
2%
0%
7%
1%1%0%
5%
3%
2%
0%
9%
1%0%
6%
2%
5%
3%
6%
4%
1%
21%
11%
10%
1%
3%
0%0%0%
1%1%
10%
3%3%
7%
2%
1%
0%1%
3%
1%1%
9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
35,000,000,000
Vasakro
na
n A
B (1
7/0
1/2
01
8)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (2
2/0
1/2
01
8)
Sw
ed
ish M
atc
h A
B (0
1/0
2/2
018)
Sw
ed
ish M
atc
h A
B (0
1/0
2/2
018)
Sw
ed
avia
AB
(0
5/0
2/2
018)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (1
4/0
2/2
01
8)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (2
0/0
2/2
01
8)
AP
Molle
r -
Maers
k A
/S (2
6/0
2/2
01
8)
AP
Molle
r -
Maers
k A
/S (2
6/0
2/2
01
8)
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (2
6/0
2/2
01
8)
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (2
6/0
2/2
01
8)
Klo
ve
rn A
B
(04/0
3/2
018)
Akeliu
s R
esid
ential P
ropert
y A
B…
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (0
9/0
3/2
01
8)
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (0
9/0
3/2
01
8)
Skanska F
inancia
l S
erv
ices A
B…
Hem
so F
astig
hets
AB
(1
2/0
3/2
018
)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (1
6/0
3/2
01
8)
Fo
rtum
OY
J (2
0/0
3/2
018)
Fo
rtum
OY
J (2
0/0
3/2
018)
Fa
stP
art
ner
AB
(2
1/0
3/2
01
8)
Sta
tne
tt S
F (2
3/0
3/2
018)
Ele
ctr
olu
x A
B
(26/0
3/2
018)
Ele
ctr
olu
x A
B
(26/0
3/2
018)
Caste
llum
AB
(2
6/0
3/2
01
8)
Bill
eru
dK
ors
nas A
B (2
7/0
3/2
01
8)
Bill
eru
dK
ors
nas A
B (2
7/0
3/2
01
8)
Core
m P
ropert
y G
roup A
B…
SS
AB
AB
(0
3/0
4/2
01
8)
Klo
ve
rn A
B
(04/0
4/2
018)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (0
4/0
4/2
01
8)
Meda
AB
(0
5/0
4/2
018
)
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (1
3/0
4/2
01
8)
Hem
so F
astig
hets
AB
(1
7/0
4/2
018
)
Hem
so F
astig
hets
AB
(1
7/0
4/2
018
)
Jern
huse
n A
B (2
3/0
4/2
01
8)
Wih
lbo
rgs F
astighete
r A
B…
Jern
huse
n A
B (2
3/0
4/2
01
8)
Getinge A
B (2
1/0
5/2
018)
Getinge A
B (2
1/0
5/2
018)
Fa
stighets
AB
Bald
er
(21
/05/2
01
8)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (2
1/0
5/2
01
8)
Sand
vik
AB
(2
3/0
5/2
018)
Ola
v T
hon E
iendom
ssels
kap A
SA
…
Vasakro
na
n A
B (2
8/0
5/2
01
8)
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (3
0/0
5/2
01
8)
Sw
ed
avia
AB
(0
4/0
6/2
018)
Rela
tive t
o t
ota
l d
eb
t
SE
K
Source: Bloomberg <SRCH>GO
7
SEK redemptions (2 of 3)
6%5%
3%1%1%1%1%
2%1%
19%
1%1%2%1%0%
21%
0%
2%2%4%3%2%
7%
1%2%
4%3%
1%1%1%0%
10%
2%0%
6%
2%1%
17%
7%
2%0%
50%
1%3%
1%2%4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
Husqvarn
a A
B (0
4/0
6/2
018)
Arl
a F
oods F
inance A
/S…
Arl
a F
oods F
inance A
/S…
Caste
llum
AB
(0
4/0
6/2
01
8)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (0
7/0
6/2
01
8)
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (1
3/0
6/2
01
8)
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (1
3/0
6/2
01
8)
Hem
so F
astig
hets
AB
(1
4/0
6/2
018
)
Hem
so F
astig
hets
AB
(1
5/0
6/2
018
)
Nynas A
B (2
6/0
6/2
018)
Sand
vik
AB
(2
2/0
8/2
018)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (2
3/0
8/2
01
8)
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (2
4/0
8/2
01
8)
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (2
4/0
8/2
01
8)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (2
4/0
8/2
01
8)
NC
C T
reasury
AB
(3
0/0
8/2
018)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (1
0/0
9/2
01
8)
Te
olli
suu
den V
oim
a O
yj…
Te
olli
suu
den V
oim
a O
yj…
Hexago
n A
B (1
7/0
9/2
01
8)
Hexago
n A
B (1
7/0
9/2
01
8)
Fo
rtum
Va
rme H
old
ing s
am
agt…
Sw
ed
ish M
atc
h A
B (1
9/0
9/2
018)
Caste
llum
AB
(2
6/0
9/2
01
8)
Caste
llum
AB
(1
0/1
0/2
01
8)
Skanska F
inancia
l S
erv
ices A
B…
Hem
so F
astig
hets
AB
(2
4/1
0/2
018
)
Hem
so F
astig
hets
AB
(2
4/1
0/2
018
)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (2
4/1
0/2
01
8)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (0
2/1
1/2
01
8)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (0
5/1
1/2
01
8)
Fin
gri
d O
YJ (1
9/1
1/2
018)
Jern
huse
n A
B (2
1/1
1/2
01
8)
Scania
CV
AB
(3
0/1
1/2
018)
Vic
toria
Park
AB
(0
3/1
2/2
018)
Scania
CV
AB
(0
3/1
2/2
018)
Scania
CV
AB
(0
3/1
2/2
018)
Saab
AB
(1
0/1
2/2
018)
Saab
AB
(1
0/1
2/2
018)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (1
2/1
2/2
01
8)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (1
8/1
2/2
01
8)
Jefa
st H
old
ing A
B (2
4/0
1/2
019)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (2
4/0
1/2
01
9)
Hem
so F
astig
hets
AB
(2
5/0
1/2
019
)
Hem
so F
astig
hets
AB
(0
4/0
2/2
019
)
Sw
ed
ish M
atc
h A
B (1
5/0
2/2
019)
Wih
lbo
rgs F
astighete
r A
B…
Red
em
pti
on
am
ou
nt
rela
tive t
o t
ota
l d
eb
t
SE
K
Source: Bloomberg <SRCH>GO
8
SEK redemptions (3 of 3)
1%
2%
1%0%0%
4%
1%
8%
1%
11%
2%
7%
3%
1%1%1%
1%
3%
2%
19%
14%
2%
1%
5%4%
1%
8%
2%
1%0%
1%1%1%0%
2%
6%
2%
1%
6%
2%
4%
2%
1%
7%
4%4%
2%3%
8%
10%
1%2%1%
10%
4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
Hem
so F
astig
hets
AB
(1
9/0
2/2
019
)
SS
AB
AB
(2
5/0
2/2
01
9)
SS
AB
AB
(2
5/0
2/2
01
9)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (2
8/0
2/2
01
9)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (2
8/0
2/2
01
9)
Klo
ve
rn A
B
(02/0
3/2
019)
Caste
llum
AB
(0
6/0
3/2
01
9)
Hexago
n A
B (1
0/0
3/2
01
9)
Fa
stighets
AB
Bald
er
(12
/03/2
01
9)
NC
C T
reasury
AB
(1
8/0
3/2
019)
Sead
rill
Ltd
(2
6/1
1/2
016)
Te
le2
AB
(1
9/0
3/2
019
)
Te
len
or
AS
A (1
9/0
3/2
019)
Te
len
or
AS
A (1
9/0
3/2
019)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (1
9/0
3/2
01
9)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (1
9/0
3/2
01
9)
Te
lia C
o A
B
(22/0
3/2
019)
Akeliu
s R
esid
ential P
ropert
y A
B…
Wih
lbo
rgs F
astighete
r A
B…
SA
S A
B (0
1/0
4/2
01
9)
PostN
ord
AB
(0
1/0
4/2
019)
Essity A
B (0
2/0
4/2
019
)
Essity A
B (0
2/0
4/2
019
)
Scania
CV
AB
(0
5/0
4/2
019)
Fa
stP
art
ner
AB
(0
5/0
4/2
01
9)
Scania
CV
AB
(0
5/0
4/2
019)
Skanska F
inancia
l S
erv
ices A
B…
Hem
so F
astig
hets
AB
(0
8/0
4/2
019
)
Hem
so F
astig
hets
AB
(0
8/0
4/2
019
)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (0
8/0
4/2
01
9)
Caste
llum
AB
(1
2/0
4/2
01
9)
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (1
5/0
4/2
01
9)
Volv
o T
reasu
ry A
B (1
5/0
4/2
01
9)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (1
5/0
4/2
01
9)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (2
4/0
4/2
01
9)
Jern
huse
n A
B (2
5/0
4/2
01
9)
Jern
huse
n A
B (2
5/0
4/2
01
9)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (2
6/0
4/2
01
9)
Husqvarn
a A
B (0
3/0
5/2
019)
Ola
v T
hon E
iendom
ssels
kap A
SA
…
Jern
huse
n A
B (1
4/0
5/2
01
9)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (1
6/0
5/2
01
9)
Meda
AB
(2
1/0
5/2
019
)
Ele
ctr
olu
x A
B
(28/0
5/2
019)
Arl
a F
oods F
inance A
/S…
Arl
a F
oods F
inance A
/S…
Ele
ctr
olu
x A
B
(28/0
5/2
019)
Core
m P
ropert
y G
roup A
B…
Sw
ed
avia
AB
(3
1/0
5/2
019)
Nib
e In
dustr
ier
AB
(0
3/0
6/2
019)
Caste
llum
AB
(0
7/0
6/2
01
9)
Essity A
B (1
0/0
6/2
019
)
Essity A
B (1
0/0
6/2
019
)
PostN
ord
AB
(1
2/0
6/2
019)
Kung
sle
den A
B (2
3/0
6/2
019)
Red
em
pti
on
am
ou
nt
rela
tive t
o t
ota
l d
eb
t
SE
K
Source: Bloomberg <SRCH>GO
9
NOK redemptions
1%
4%
2%
13%13%
2%
1%1%
2%2%
4%
2%
4%
14%
2%1%
2%
5%
2%1%
1%
2%2%1%
11%
2%1%
3%3%
1%1%0%
11%
1%
12%
1%
8%
3%3%
9%
2%2%2%
14%
5%
6%8%
2%2%1%1%
6%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,600,000,000
1,800,000,000
2,000,000,000
Ola
v T
hon E
iendom
ssels
kap A
SA
…
Th
on H
old
ing A
S (0
2/0
2/2
018)
Ste
en
& S
trom
AS
(0
8/0
2/2
018)
Poste
n N
org
e A
S
(09/0
2/2
018)
Fe
lleskjo
pet
Ag
ri S
A (1
3/0
2/2
018
)
Ste
en
& S
trom
AS
(2
1/0
2/2
018)
Ste
en
& S
trom
AS
(2
3/0
2/2
018)
Ste
en
& S
trom
AS
(0
8/0
3/2
018)
Sead
rill
Ltd
(1
2/0
3/2
018)
Ola
v T
hon E
iendom
ssels
kap A
SA
…
Sto
lt-N
iels
en L
td
(19/0
3/2
018)
Citycon
Tre
asury
BV
(1
9/0
3/2
01
8)
Dfd
s A
/S (2
1/0
3/2
018)
TIN
E S
A (0
4/0
4/2
01
8)
Th
on H
old
ing A
S (2
0/0
4/2
018)
Ola
v T
hon E
iendom
ssels
kap A
SA
…
Ste
en
& S
trom
AS
(0
2/0
5/2
018)
Norw
egia
n A
ir S
huttle
AS
A…
Ola
v T
hon E
iendom
ssels
kap A
SA
…
Ola
v T
hon E
iendom
ssels
kap A
SA
…
Ste
en
& S
trom
AS
(0
6/0
6/2
018)
Ste
en
& S
trom
AS
(1
2/0
6/2
018)
Walle
niu
s W
ilhelm
sen L
og
istics…
Ola
v T
hon E
iendom
ssels
kap A
SA
…
Norg
esG
rupp
en A
SA
(1
5/0
6/2
01
8)
Th
on H
old
ing A
S (2
7/0
6/2
018)
Ola
v T
hon E
iendom
ssels
kap A
SA
…
Th
on H
old
ing A
S (0
3/0
8/2
018)
Ste
en
& S
trom
AS
(0
8/0
8/2
018)
Ola
v T
hon E
iendom
ssels
kap A
SA
…
Ste
en
& S
trom
AS
(0
7/0
9/2
018)
Ola
v T
hon E
iendom
ssels
kap A
SA
…
Poste
n N
org
e A
S
(21/0
9/2
018)
Ola
v T
hon E
iendom
ssels
kap A
SA
…
Ta
llin
k G
rupp A
S (1
8/1
0/2
018)
Ola
v T
hon E
iendom
ssels
kap A
SA
…
Nort
h A
tlantic D
rilli
ng L
td…
Ola
v T
hon E
iendom
ssels
kap A
SA
…
Ola
v T
hon E
iendom
ssels
kap A
SA
…
Odfjell
SE
(0
3/1
2/2
018)
Bonh
eur
AS
A (1
1/0
2/2
019)
Sta
tkra
ft A
S (1
1/0
2/2
01
9)
Ste
en
& S
trom
AS
(2
1/0
2/2
019)
Fre
d O
lsen
Ene
rgy A
SA
…
Schib
ste
d A
SA
(0
1/0
3/2
019
)
Ship
Fin
an
ce In
tern
ation
al L
td…
Oce
an Y
ield
AS
A (2
6/0
3/2
019)
Walle
niu
s W
ilhelm
sen L
og
istics…
Sta
tne
tt S
F (2
2/0
5/2
019)
Sta
tne
tt S
F (2
2/0
5/2
019)
Vasakro
na
n A
B (1
8/0
6/2
01
9)
Ola
v T
hon E
iendom
ssels
kap A
SA
…
Red
em
pti
on
am
ou
nt
rela
tive t
o t
ota
l d
eb
t
NO
K
Source: Bloomberg <SRCH>GO
10
Other currency redemptions (USD, JPY, GBP)
12%
2% 2%
28%
4%5%
2%
22%
28%
2%
11% 11%
22%
1%
13%
4%
1%1% 0% 0%
1%0%
14%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
-
2,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
12,000,000,000
Rela
tive t
o t
ota
l d
eb
t
Am
ou
nt
in
US
D,
JP
Y o
r G
BP
Source: Bloomberg <SRCH>GO
11
Number of redemptions by issuer*
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
# of redemptions by issuer
Source: Bloomberg <SRCH>GO.*Number of redemptions between 15/01/2018 and 30/06/2019
12
0
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
35,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
45,000,000,000
Redemption volume by issuer in local currency
Redemption volumes by issuer*
Source: Bloomberg <SRCH>GO.*Total redemption volumes by issuer in local currency between 15/01/2018 and 30/06/2019
13
Redemption statistics by issuer
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%S
t1 N
ord
ic O
y
Ke
sko O
YJ
G4S
PL
C
NC
C A
B
Bill
eru
dK
ors
na
s A
B
Vo
lvo A
B
Ram
irent O
YJ
Fo
rtum
OY
J
Sa
ab A
B
UP
M-K
ym
mene O
YJ
SR
V G
roup O
YJ
Sw
edis
h M
atc
h A
B
Sw
edavia
AB
Skanska A
B
Sta
tkra
ft S
F
Ele
ctr
olu
x A
B
Atla
s C
opco A
B
Nyn
as G
roup
TD
C A
/S
SA
S A
B
Nokia
OY
J
Se
curita
s A
B
Te
lenor
AS
A
SS
AB
AB
Te
olli
suuden V
oim
a O
yj
Arla
Fo
ods a
mb
a
Hexagon A
B
Ta
llin
k G
rupp A
S
Husqvarn
a A
B
SK
F A
B
Sto
ra E
nso O
YJ
AP
Mo
ller
- M
aers
k A
/S
Ke
mira O
YJ
Norg
esG
ruppen A
SA
Me
tsa B
oard
OY
J
Va
ttenfa
ll A
B
Sh
ip F
inance Inte
rnatio
nal Ltd
Nib
e Industr
ier
AB
Essity A
B
Getinge
AB
Fin
grid
OY
J
Sta
toil
AS
A
Ors
ted A
/S
Fin
nair O
YJ
Te
le2 A
B
Sta
tnett S
F
Norw
egia
n A
ir S
huttle
AS
A
Schib
ste
d A
SA
Mets
o O
YJ
Walle
niu
s W
ilhelm
sen L
ogis
tics
Neste
Oyj
Dfd
s A
/S
ES
B Ire
land H
old
ings L
td
Te
lia C
o A
B
Ste
na A
B
Fo
rtum
Varm
e H
old
ing s
am
agt m
e
Bo
nheur
AS
A
Sa
ndvik
AB
Redemptions relative to total debt by issuer (%)
Source: Bloomberg <SRCH>GO
14
Issuers with redemptions between 15/01/2018 and 30/06/2019 (higher issuance likelihood)
Company name Corp ticker# of bond
maturitiesTotal volume (LCYm)
Deficit inc.
Facilities
Deficit ex.
FacilitiesRCF use (%)
Total volume to
total debt
Volvo AB VLVY 19 39,765,532,500 NO YES 39% 30%
Swedish Match AB SWEMAT 5 2,440,830,000 NO NO 0% 22%
Vattenfall AB VATFAL 5 11,734,590,250 NO NO 0% 10%
Essity AB SCHHYG 5 5,972,490,000 NO NO 0% 10%
Statoil ASA STLNO 5 2,850,000,000 NO NO 0% 9%
Electrolux AB ELTLX 4 2,000,000,000 NO NO 0% 20%
Telenor ASA TELNO 4 12,395,840,000 NO YES 55% 16%
SSAB AB SSABAS 4 3,388,060,808 NO NO 0% 16%
Arla Foods amba ARLA 4 302,760,000 YES YES 100% 15%
Stora Enso OYJ STERV 4 399,095,000 NO NO 0% 12%
Statnett SF STATNE 4 2,276,180,000 NO YES 91% 7%
Fortum OYJ FUMVFH 3 1,168,818,000 NO NO 0% 25%
Swedavia AB SWEDAV 3 1,130,100,000 YES YES 100% 21%
Skanska AB SKABSS 3 2,350,000,000 NO NO 0% 21%
Statkraft SF STATK 3 7,876,800,000 NO NO 0% 20%
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj TVOYFH 3 701,840,000 NO YES 14% 15%
Hexagon AB HEXAG 3 363,312,000 NO NO 0% 15%
AP Moller - Maersk A/S MAERSK 3 1,854,080,400 NO NO 0% 12%
Telia Co AB TELIAS 3 3,372,754,747 NO NO 0% 4%
G4S PLC GFSLN 2 790,160,000 NO NO 0% 32%
NCC AB NCCAB 2 850,000,000 NO NO 0% 32%
BillerudKorsnas AB BILL 2 1,500,000,000 YES YES 100% 32%
Saab AB SAABAB 2 1,350,000,000 NO NO 0% 24%
Source: Bloomberg <SRCH>GO
15
Company name Corp ticker# of bond
maturitiesTotal volume (LCYm)
Deficit inc.
Facilities
Deficit ex.
FacilitiesRCF use (%)
Total volume to
total debt
UPM-Kymmene OYJ UPMFH 2 423,800,000 NO NO 0% 22%
Nokia OYJ NOKIA 2 723,910,594 NO NO 0% 18%
Husqvarna AB HUSQB 2 1,000,000,000 NO NO 0% 12%
Ship Finance International Ltd SFL 2 170,752,000 YES YES 100% 10%
Getinge AB GETAB 2 2,000,000,000 NO YES 24% 10%
Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics WWLNO 2 179,250,000 NO NO 0% 5%
Stena AB STENA 2 2,021,293,200 NO NO 0% 4%
Sandvik AB SANDSS 2 625,000,000 NO NO 0% 2%
St1 Nordic Oy STNORD 1 100,000,000 NO NO 0% 59%
Kesko OYJ KESBV 1 250,000,000 NO NO 0% 45%
Ramirent OYJ RMRVFH 1 100,000,000 YES YES 100% 26%
SRV Group OYJ SRVYHT 1 75,000,000 NO YES 42% 22%
Atlas Copco AB ATCOA 1 4,954,150,000 NO NO 0% 20%
Nynas Group NYNAAB 1 1,100,000,000 NO NO 0% 20%
TDC A/S TDCDC 1 4,465,680,000 NO YES 26% 19%
SAS AB SASSS 1 1,574,000,000 NO NO 0% 18%
Securitas AB SECUSS 1 2,972,490,000 NO YES 15% 16%
Tallink Grupp AS TALLNK 1 91,620,000 NO YES 71% 12%
SKF AB SKFBSS 1 2,314,677,963 NO NO 0% 12%
Kemira OYJ KEMIRA 1 100,001,000 NO NO 0% 11%
NorgesGruppen ASA NORGRU 1 800,000,000 NO NO 0% 11%
Issuers with redemptions between 15/01/2018 and 30/06/2019 (higher issuance likelihood)
Source: Bloomberg <SRCH>GO
16
Company name Corp ticker# of bond
maturitiesTotal volume (LCYm)
Deficit inc.
Facilities
Deficit ex.
FacilitiesRCF use (%)
Total volume to
total debt
Metsa Board OYJ METSA 1 67,269,000 NO NO 0% 11%
Nibe Industrier AB NIBEBS 1 900,000,000 NO YES 4% 10%
Fingrid OYJ FINPOW 1 100,920,000 NO YES 2% 9%
Orsted A/S DONGAS 1 2,085,480,003 NO NO 0% 9%
Finnair OYJ FOY 1 64,918,000 NO NO 0% 8%
Tele2 AB TELBSS 1 1,000,000,000 NO YES 19% 7%
Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA NASNO 1 1,250,000,000 YES YES 100% 5%
Schibsted ASA SCHNO 1 300,000,000 NO NO 0% 5%
Metso OYJ METSO 1 40,000,000 NO NO 0% 5%
Neste Oyj NESVFH 1 50,000,000 NO NO 0% 4%
Dfds A/S DFDSDC 1 125,004,000 NO NO 0% 4%
ESB Ireland Holdings Ltd ESBIRE 1 191,557,600 NO NO 0% 4%
Fortum Varme Holding samagt me FVHSAM 1 252,000,000 NO NO 0% 2%
Bonheur ASA BONNO 1 300,000,000 NO NO 0% 2%
Issuers with redemptions between 15/01/2018 and 30/06/2019 (higher issuance likelihood)
Source: Bloomberg <SRCH>GO
17
Company name Corp ticker# of bond
maturitiesTotal volume (LCYm)
Deficit inc.
Facilities
Deficit ex.
FacilitiesRCF use (%)
Total volume to
total debt
Caruna Oy CARUNA 0 0 YES YES 100% 0%
Teekay Offshore Partners LP TOO 0 0 YES YES 100% 0%
YIT OYJ YITYH 0 0 YES YES 100% 0%
Avinor AS AVINOR 0 0 NO YES 57% 0%
Lantmannen ek for LATMEK 0 0 NO YES 52% 0%
Danfoss A/S DNFSDC 0 0 NO YES 50% 0%
Elisa OYJ ELIAV 0 0 NO YES 37% 0%
Svenska Cellulosa AB SCA SCABSS 0 0 NO YES 31% 0%
Faroe Petroleum PLC FPMLN 0 0 NO YES 34% 0%
ICA Gruppen AB ICASS 0 0 NO YES 8% 0%
HKScan OYJ HKSAV 0 0 NO YES 6% 0%
Color Group AS COLLIN 0 0 NO YES 6% 0%
DNA Oyj DNAFH 0 0 NO YES 1% 0%
Stockmann OYJ Abp STCBV 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
Ambu A/S AMBUDC 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
Beerenberg Holdco II AS BERHLD 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
AX IV EG Holding III ApS EGASDK 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
BW Offshore Ltd BWONO 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
Ixat Intressenter AB CABONL 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
Carlsberg A/S CARLB 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
Com Hem Holding AB COMHSS 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
Crayon Group Holding ASA CRAYON 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
DSV A/S DSVDC 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
Elekta AB EKTAB 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
Issuers without redemptions between 15/01/2018 and 30/06/2019 (lower issuance likelihood)
Source: Bloomberg <SRCH>GO
18
Corp ticker# of bond
maturitiesTotal volume (LCYm)
Deficit inc.
Facilities
Deficit ex.
FacilitiesRCF use (%)
Total volume to
total debt
Elenia Oy ELENFH 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
Ellevio AB ELLEVI 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
GAS Networks Ireland BOGAEI 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
ISS A/S ISSDC 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
Link Mobility Group ASA LINKNO 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
Luossavaara-Kiirunavaara AB LKAB 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
Loomis AB LOOMBS 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
Orkla ASA ORKBNO 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
Outokumpu OYJ OUTOK 0 0 NO YES 0% 0%
Teekay Shuttle Tankers LLC TKSHTN 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsso ERICB 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWSDC 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
GLX Holding AS GLXHLD 0 0 NO NO 0% 0%
Issuers without redemptions between 15/01/2018 and 30/06/2019 (lower issuance likelihood)
Source: Bloomberg <SRCH>GO
19
Danske Bank DCM credit research team
Find the latest Credit Research: :
Danske Bank DCM Research: http://www.danskebank.com/danskemarketsresearch Bloomberg: DNSK<GO>
Thomas Hovard
Head of Credit Research
+45 45 12 85 05
Gabriel Bergin
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Jakob Magnussen
Utilities, Energy
+45 45 12 85 03
Henrik René Andresen
Credit Portfolios
+45 45 13 33 27
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Industrials & Norwegian HY
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Industrials
+45 45 12 85 19
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Industrials & Norwegian HY
+47 85 40 54 17
Niklas Ripa
Credit Portfolios
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Industrials, Real Estate
+46 8 568 80524
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Industrials, TMT
+45 45 14 88 79
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Industrials & Construction
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Financials
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Industrials & Norwegian HY
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Financials
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General Industrials
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20
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21
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Report completed: 15 December 2017 at 09:54 CET
Report disseminated: 15 December 2017 at 10:55 CET
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