Potential Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Water Quality in South Puget Sound: A Management Perspective Tali Engoltz CIG Research Presentation.

Potential Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Water Quality in

South Puget Sound:A Management Perspective

Tali EngoltzCIG Research Presentation

June 4, 2002

Goals

2. Explore what is known about climate effects on estuarine processes.

3. Research the implications of regional climate variability on water quality in South Puget Sound.

Goals

3. Relate the results to the perceptions of water resources managers regarding climate variability and its implications for management.

4. Suggest topics for further research on the potential effects of a variable and changing climate on the interactions between estuaries and watersheds

Study Site South Puget Sound is

defined as the waters south of the Narrows near Tacoma, WA. This study concentrated on Budd Inlet and the Deschutes and Kitsap watersheds.

WRIA 13: Deschutes

http://www.co.thurston.wa.us/wwm/utilitydev%20pages/wria_13.htm

WRIA 15: Kitsap

http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/eap/wrias/15.html

Methods Literature Search and Synthesis

To review current and historical research on the impacts of climate variability and change on coastal systems

South Puget Sound Area Synthesis Model (SPASM): A computer model developed by the WA DOE To model watershed inputs and estuarine responses under a

number of climate scenarios Elite Interviewing

To understand the perspectives of water resource managers on the use of climate information in management

Results: Literature Review Impacts will vary regionally and could include:

1. Impaired water quality and quantity2. Altered biotic community structures3. Reduced runoff and groundwater recharge4. Changes in the timing of low/high stream flows5. Increased sediment and nutrient loads6. Changes in estuarine salinity7. Fewer socioeconomic benefits: fishing, recreation…

Results: SPASMThe effect of negative 1 std.dev. perturbation on Salinity

at Inner West Bay

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Oct

-96

Nov

-96

Dec

-96

Jan-

97

Feb

-97

Mar

-97

Apr

-97

May

-97

Jun-

97

Jul-9

7

Aug

-97

Sep

-97

Oct

-97

Date

Sal

init

y (p

su)

NB-NT

NS-NT

NB-NA

NS-NA

NB-NSA

NS-NSA

NB-NSU

NS-NSU

NB-NQ

NS-NQ

NB-NN

NS-NN

Results: SPASMThe effect of positive1 std.dev. perturbation on DO

at Inner West Bay

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Oct

-96

Nov

-96

Dec

-96

Jan-

97

Feb

-97

Mar

-97

Apr

-97

May

-97

Jun-

97

Jul-9

7

Aug

-97

Sep

-97

Oct

-97

Date

DO

(m

g/l

)

NB-PT

NS-PT

NB-PA

NS-PA

NB-PSA

NS-PSA

NB-PSU

NS-PSU

NB-PQ

NS-PQ

NB-PN

NS-PN

The four output parameters showed sensitivity to altered climate-related parameters as follows:

Salinity: Sensitive to changes in riverflow, sunlight, and ocean boundary salinity;

Water Temperature: Sensitive to changes in ocean boundary temperature and sometimes to sunlight;

DO: Sensitive to changes in sunlight, DIN inputs, and ocean boundary temperature conditions; and

Chl a: Sensitive to changes in sunlight, riverflow, and DIN inputs.

Results: Elite Interviews

Fifteen interviews conducted Agencies represented included:

WA Dept. of Fish and Wildlife and WA Dept. of EcologyPSWQATTaylor Shellfish, Inc.Thurston and Kitsap CountiesCity of BremertonTribes

What parameters lead to water quality impairment in South Puget Sound?

Variable ResponsesFecal Coliform 10Nutients 9Other Biological Contaminants/Pathogens 7Sediment 6Metals and other Toxins 6Temperature 5Dissolved Oxygen 5Algae 2Flow (High and low) 2pH 1

Which climate variables are likely to affect water quality in South Puget Sound and surrounding waters?

Variable ResponsesPrecipitation 12Water Temperature 5Wind/Circulation 4Sunlight 4Air Temperature 3

What are your sources of information about climate variability and change?

Source Responses Newspaper/ Magazine 9 Co-worker/ Network contacts 6 Peer reviewed Literature 5 Websites 4 Conferences attended 4 Agency Papers 3 Contact with CIG or other scientists 2 National Public Radio 1

All 15 respondents felt that there IS a role for climate information in water resource management.

This is what they would want to know:

Explanations of cycles in weather patterns 7Increased accuracy of predications 6Biological reactions 5Understanding of past trends 3Potential extreme conditions (Worst case scenerios) 3Anthropogenic impacts vs. climate induced impacts 3Interactions with storm/surface/ground water 3Understanding of risks associated with storms, floods, droughts 2Greater understanding of trophic/climate interactions 2

Conclusions, Recommendations, and Future Research Directions

Acknowledgements JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group

Funding Scientific support

WA State Department of Ecology SPASM use and results

Specifically: Professor David Fluharty, SMA Doug Canning, WADOE; Warren Wooster, SMA Skip Albertson, WADOE Jan Newton, WADOE and School of Oceanography Kurt Heintz, School of Oceanography