POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INDIANA BAT MATERNITY RANGE Susan Loeb and Eric Winters USFS, Southern Research Station
POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INDIANA BAT MATERNITY RANGE Susan Loeb and Eric Winters USFS, Southern Research Station.
Jan 13, 2016
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POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INDIANA BAT
MATERNITY RANGE
Susan Loeb and Eric WintersUSFS, Southern Research
Station
Winter Summer
Gardner and Cook 2002
Gardner and Cook 2002
No RecordsHibernaculaMaternity ColoniesHibernacula & Mat Colonies
Gardner & Cook 2002
Given:1)Northern maternity distribution2)Restriction to mountains in SE3)Sufficient habitat
Questions:4)Does climate affect summer
MYSO distribution?5)How will warmer temps affect
summer distribution in the future?
Methods
• 183 Summer maternity records
• Maxent–Maximum entropy model– Presence only– 75% training, 25% test
Methods
• Current distributions– County level PRISM climatology– 1970-2000 monthly means• Tmax Avg across May-Aug• Precip May-Aug• Elevation
• Future distributions– 4 Future climate forecasts– 2021-30, 2031-40, 2041-50, 2051-60
Current Distribution
Training data (AUC = 0.83) Random pred (AUC = 0.50)
Elevation (m)
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Pro
bab
ilit
y
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
May Precipitation (mm)
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Pro
bab
ilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Average Tmax (oC)
18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36
Pro
bab
ilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Important VariablesAvgTmax = 41.5%
Elevation = 24.8%
May Precip = 27.6%
Elevation (m)
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Pro
bab
ilit
y
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
May Precipitation (mm)
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Pro
bab
ilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Average Tmax (oC)
18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36
Pro
bab
ilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Important VariablesAvgTmax = 41.5%
Elevation = 24.8%
May Precip = 27.6%
74.1-81.3 °F
Current Distribution
Current Distribution
AvgTmax
May Precipitation
Change in Area
Change in Area
Some Caveats
• Correlative study
• Does not consider land-use changes–Maternity roosts urban to forested
areas
• Does not consider CC effects on hibernacula
Research & Management Implications
• Role of heat in Indiana bat roost site selection?
•
?
Management Implications
• Importance of Appalachians– Restore pine-oak
habitats–Maintain large dbh
snags – Change in micro-
habitat selection?
Management Implications
• Interactions with WNS?
Management Implications
• Interactions with WNS?
Questions?
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