ECONOMIC CRISIS, BREXIT & REGIME OF DONALD TRUMP: SHRM IN AN UNCERTAIN TIME “We will follow simple rule. Buy American and hire American” 01 02 03 04 05 06 02. The Immigrant Workforce Trump also wants to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, ostensibly to pave the way for U.S. citizens to get the low- wage jobs they hold. 03. New restrictions on hiring foreign workers. The Trump administration may mandate in new ways the hiring of unemployed American workers before foreign workers. 05. The Opportunity Trump has an opportunity to engage in the private sector and impact millions of disenfranchised workers. 04. The Minimum Wage Trump has called for a higher minimum wage. “A truly bold increase in the minimum wage would lift pay for the bottom quarter or more of the workforce.” 01. Pro-employer Practices To make America the “best place in the world to get a job,” Trump has pledged to create 25 million jobs over the next 10 years 06. Restriction on Outsourcing Job From the Trump’s election agenda there has been clear prediction that Trump will possibly set barriers on outsourcing the low paid and industrial jobs to the offshore countries. POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES ON LABOR AND EMPLOYMENT UNDER TRUMP THAT MIGHT HAVE STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS 01. National Fight for $15 Campaign The Fight for $15 won’t be going away anytime soon. Nineteen major cities have mayoral campaigns around this issue in 2017. 02. Paid Leave Expansion/Pay Equity Legislation The paid leave issue began in two to three cities, with the support of roughly 500,000 activists. Paid leave is now in 30 jurisdictions and is growing organically. It is becoming a mainstream, non-partisan issue. 03. Restrictive Scheduling Legislation Predictive or Restrictive Scheduling is somewhat controversial legislation that is intended to protect workers in retail and restaurant industries by providing advance notice of schedules, among other things. 05. State Overtime Legislation States will revisit overtime rules, especially if they have Democratic governors and legislatures. 04. Wage Theft Enforcement This is usually in the form of a wage board that ensures that employers comply with the minimum wage. This is a strategy that was developed by the labor community to eventually create mini-NLRBs throughout the country. HR ISSUES BEYOND THE CONTROL OF TRUMP IMMIGRATION Policy change will restrict low-skilled workers coming to the UK, impacting sectors such as agriculture – but it could result in an increase in the number of highly-skilled migrant workers. TRADE Small impact as some tariffs have fallen over the past two decades. Increased negotiating powers will help offset higher costs for food, drink and car producers. REGULATION The UK is subject to EU regulation. Brexit may mean less red tape. It could also mean UK businesses would have to adapt to a different set of regulations which could be costly. FINANCIAL SERVICES AND THE CITY Negative in short term but not a disaster. City’s competitive advantage not solely down to single market access and could open up long-term opportunity. PROPERTY MARKET Easy to create a doom-case scenario but scientific, professional and technical services driving London office creation – not financial services as often perceived. PUBLIC SECTOR Brexit would benefit the UK, but not to a huge degree – economic disruption and lower migration could offset some savings. FOREIGN INVESTMENT Britain to remain a safe haven for foreign investment in the longer term. Weaker investment in the short term as new tariffs are negotiated but once in place, losses could start to be recouped. 03 02 01 07 06 05 04 THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF ‘BREXIT’ NNOVATION QUAD Department of Management University of Dhaka Conduct an audit Conduct an audit of workforce to assess which employees could be subject to the new laws. If any employees have lived in the U.K. for at least six years, they are eligible for British citizenship, which can have tax implications for the individual and the employer. Smooth Communication Communicate with employees, even if there is no new news. "Be connected; it's very important" to let employees know the organization is committed and supportive of them and that the organization is keeping up-to-date with environmental changes. Plan for long-term Plan for a longer lead time to get new employees on board if your organization wants to recruit large blocs of employees. Creating Task-force Create a task force to help bring together skill sets for the organization's industry, with HR as a key member of the task force. The task force can act in an advisory capacity to the organization's leaders and help with communication. Exploring the Options Drill down to see what options are available and what guidance employers can provide to their employees. Steps HR Can Take To Prepare for Post Brexit Situation 01 Communication Developing a clear stakeholder engagement plan that covers employees and their representatives, executives,potentiallytheirfamilies,the board,shareholders,regulators,customers,suppliersandsoon. 02 Leadership Consulting with leaders to review the focus and priorities of HR support and services, and then realigningtheseasnecessary. 03 Motivation Assessing the impact of economic volatility on bonus pools and incentive targets, and decide what action is needed. Do these remain fit for purpose? 04 Data & Technology Reviewing planned technology implementations to determine which these should be postponed and which should be accelerated. 05 Labor Markets & Immigration Identifying who is affected by potential changes to immigration status and provide targeted support as appropriate. 06 Maximizing efficiencies Revisiting efficiency opportunities, including within HR itself. Are there efficiency or productivity increase opportunities that have previously been discarded that could now be viable? 07 Political Trust Agenda Reviewing fair pay policy, covering executive and wider employee pay. Considering HR initiatives to build business trust. HR Priorities to explore opportunities that Brexit creates Close Strategic Fit There is a rising debate regarding the alignment of HR as a source of real value to firm’s business objectives and so HR system needs to be closely integrated with overall organizational strategy. Workforce Development In response to economic crisis firms need more cautious manpower planning ensuring that it will have the potential to be invested for future training and development by firm. Change Management As the global economic and political landscape is rapidly changing firms need to develop the business intelligence system that will create flexibility for change management. Knowledge Management The skill gap is rising and becoming difficult to fulfill the organization expectation. Firms need to invest in learning and development to ensure competitive advantage. Organization Restructuring Economic crisis critically generates recession which necessitates organizational restructuring. Changing Reward System In order to maintain the consistency with the overall cost structure HR should meticulously review for any kind of changes, if any, in reward system to gain the cost leadership strategy. Affected HR areas due to Economic Crisis