Post –Soviet Central Asia 21 February 2007 Daniel Gray.

Post –Soviet Central AsiaPost –Soviet Central Asia

21 February 200721 February 2007

Daniel GrayDaniel Gray

Dissolution of the USSRDissolution of the USSR 8 December 19918 December 1991

• DeclarationDeclaration 31 December 199131 December 1991

• Republics are now independently Republics are now independently governedgoverned

The BossesThe Bosses

Emomali Rahmonov Nursultan Nazarbayev Kurmanbek Bakiyev

Tajikistan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan

Islom Karimov

Karimova

Saparmurat Niyazov “Turkmenbashi”

The BossesThe Bosses

Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedow Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Cult of PersonalityCult of Personality

Civil War 1992-1997Civil War 1992-1997

NationalismNationalism

Ethnic discrimination in the USSREthnic discrimination in the USSR• Economically weakEconomically weak

GlasnostGlasnost Nationalist policiesNationalist policies 1992 Election - Rahmon Nabiev1992 Election - Rahmon Nabiev

• Government/Moscow vs. Minorities, Government/Moscow vs. Minorities, Democrats, Islamists Democrats, Islamists

Rebels take control of Gov. Rebels take control of Gov.

WarWar

December 1992 - Rebels ousted from December 1992 - Rebels ousted from DushanbeDushanbe

Rakhmon Nabiyev replaced by Rakhmon Nabiyev replaced by Emomali RahmonovEmomali Rahmonov

Reorganize in Afghanistan Reorganize in Afghanistan Ethnic CleansingEthnic Cleansing UN Peace Treaty 1997UN Peace Treaty 1997

Security IssuesSecurity Issues

FundamentalismFundamentalism

Fergana ValleyFergana Valley

Radical/Terrorist GroupsRadical/Terrorist Groups

Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) Hizb ut-Tahrir (HT)Hizb ut-Tahrir (HT)

• Non-violent?Non-violent?

Operation Enduring FreedomOperation Enduring Freedom

Supported by all Central Asian StatesSupported by all Central Asian States• Except TurkmenistanExcept Turkmenistan

BasingBasing• KyrgyzstanKyrgyzstan• UzbekistanUzbekistan

WMDWMD Soviet Nuclear Legacy in KazakhstanSoviet Nuclear Legacy in Kazakhstan

• Semipalatinsk Test SiteSemipalatinsk Test Site 181 cases of illicit trafficking of nuclear materials 181 cases of illicit trafficking of nuclear materials

between 1993-2001between 1993-2001

Semipalatinsk Test SiteSemipalatinsk Test Site

Andijan, Uzbekistan 2005Andijan, Uzbekistan 2005

10 -11 May 2005 10 -11 May 2005 • Protests against the arrest of 23 local Protests against the arrest of 23 local

businessmenbusinessmen 12 May – Prison Break12 May – Prison Break 13 May – Massacre13 May – Massacre Death Toll: 500 - 1000 Death Toll: 500 - 1000

AftermathAftermath

Western ResponseWestern Response Canceled support for Afghanistan Canceled support for Afghanistan

missionmission June 2005 - Pact with Russia June 2005 - Pact with Russia

OilOil

Bosporus StraitsBosporus Straits Caspian SeaCaspian Sea How to Export??How to Export?? Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipelineBaku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline

EnvironmentEnvironment

Environmental IssuesEnvironmental Issues

Top 10 World’s Worst Polluted PlacesTop 10 World’s Worst Polluted Places Radioactive DumpRadioactive Dump Earthquakes, FloodsEarthquakes, Floods Affects 23,000 people Affects 23,000 people

• Possibly Millions!Possibly Millions!

MAILUU-SUU, KYRGYZSTANMAILUU-SUU, KYRGYZSTAN

Aral SeaAral Sea

1918 – Russia diverts 1918 – Russia diverts

Amu Darya/Syr Darya RiversAmu Darya/Syr Darya Rivers Poorly Designed Canal SystemPoorly Designed Canal System Fourth biggest inland seaFourth biggest inland sea

• Now a desertNow a desert Biological Weapons PlantBiological Weapons Plant

• VozrozhdeniyaVozrozhdeniya Island Island

VozrozhdeniyaVozrozhdeniya Island & Island & KantubekKantubek