Portland’s Emergence MARKET SNAPSHOT 2Q2015 2Q2014 Delta YoY Change Population 2,345,333 30,779 1.33% Households 917,810 907,882 1.09% Total Apartment Inventory 112,372 2,528 2.30% Average Effective Rent $1,286 $141 12.31% Average Rent PSF $1.43 $0.15 12.06% Average Unit Size (SF) 899 2 0.22% Vacancy Rate 3.60% — 40 bps Unemployment Rate 5.70% — -60 bps Total Jobs 1,116,200 1,071,700 4.15% Best performing multifamily investment market in the nation in terms of rent growth, revenue growth, and vacancy rate (> 2 million population) 1 st in GDP growth amongst 50 largest U.S. economies from 2009 to 2013 Oregon ranked #1 for percentage of net inbound moves in 2013 & 2014 #3 Best Places for Business & Careers in U.S. “America’s Only Livable City” The Multi-housing Investment Report for the first half of 2015 (1H2015), is HFF Portland’s 1 st semi-annual publication detailing macroeconomic trends relating to multi-housing real estate investment within the Portland MSA. Our goal is to inform investors of trends in Portland’s rental and capital markets, as well as highlight reoccurring consumer, business, and job market trends that relate to real estate investing fundamentals. The report sources data compiled from major recognized apartment research firms, such as Axiometrics, REIS, CoStar, and Pierce Eislen, and is accompanied by commentary from HFF analysts and local publications. AS A MAJOR U.S. REAL ESTATE MARKET Portland Apartment Market Investment Report 1H2015 1 of 12
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Portland’s Emergence
MARKET SNAPSHOT 2Q2015 2Q2014 Delta YoY Change
Population 2,345,333 30,779 1.33%
Households 917,810 907,882 1.09%
Total Apartment Inventory 112,372 2,528 2.30%
Average Effective Rent $1,286 $141 12.31%
Average Rent PSF $1.43 $0.15 12.06%
Average Unit Size (SF) 899 2 0.22%
Vacancy Rate 3.60% — 40 bps
Unemployment Rate 5.70% — -60 bps
Total Jobs 1,116,200 1,071,700 4.15%
Best performing multifamily
investment market in the
nation in terms of rent
growth, revenue growth, and
vacancy rate
(> 2 million population)
1st in GDP growth amongst
50 largest U.S. economies
from 2009 to 2013
Oregon ranked #1 for
percentage of net inbound
moves in 2013 & 2014
#3 Best Places for
Business & Careers in U.S.
“America’s Only Livable City”
The Multi-housing Investment Report for the first half of 2015 (1H2015), is HFF Portland’s 1st semi-annual publication detailing macroeconomic trends relating to multi-housing real estate investment within the Portland MSA. Our goal is to inform investors of trends in Portland’s rental and capital markets, as well as highlight reoccurring consumer, business, and job market trends that relate to real estate investing fundamentals. The report sources data compiled from major recognized apartment research firms, such as Axiometrics, REIS, CoStar, and Pierce Eislen, and is accompanied by commentary from HFF analysts and local publications.
In the first half of 2015, the Portland apartment market flourished, showing improvements across nearly all major economic and investment market indicators. Nation-leading rent growth, driven by ample in-migration and a thriving economy, has made Portland one of the best places for multi-family real estate investment in the United States. As of July 2015, asking rents in the Portland MSA increased by an impressive 13.8% year-over-year — an acceleration of 720 bps over the 6.6% annual growth rate in July 2014 — enough to place 1st among all large U.S. metros. The second quarter of 2015 also marked the 21st consecutive period of sub-5% vacancy in the MSA, which registered at 3.6% market-wide. The market-wide rent growth is stemming from rents set by new construction, and top performing properties in the downtown core area, which easily exceed $3.00 per square foot in many instances—a rate that Portland had not seen prior to 2015. The downtown “Class-A” apartment deliveries have begun to force middle-income earners to seek housing in close-in suburban areas, where Portland’s Urban Growth Boundary continues to constrain supply.
As seen in the top right chart of this page, rent growth in the Portland MSA has easily surpassed previous rent growth projections of major notable research firms over the last 36 months, with the fastest acceleration occurring in the trailing-6 months
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Portland MSA Rent Performance
Reality HFF Witten Axiometrics REIS
Strongest Employment Growth in over a Decade
Portland’s revitalized employment market, which surpassed pre-recession performance levels in 1H2015, is a primary force driving market fundamentals. According to Oregon Labor Market Information Systems (“OLMIS”), the July unemployment rate (5.7%) has declined 60 bps year-over-year. The unemployment rate is indicative to the relative strength of the employment market throughout the MSA, which added ±40,900 (4.4%) private sector jobs in the past year, and ±44,500 (4.2%) total non-farm jobs (not seasonally adjusted).
Since the trough in 2Q2010, the Portland MSA has added 117,500 private sector jobs, a 14% increase.
The charts above represent the percentage of income residents allocate towards housing costs in major West Coast markets.
In-Migration Outweighing Supply Additions
Portland’s quality of living and relative affordability compared to other West Coast markets has resulted in significant resident and business in-migration. Since 2010, the Portland MSA added approximately 50,010 households (+5.8%). During the same period, an estimated 6,939 multi-family units and 24,700 single family homes were constructed, resulting in a shortage of roughly 18,371 housing units and upward pressure on housing costs.
Allocation towards housing costs reached an all-time high in Portland in 4Q2014 at ±19.3%. The recent increase in the amount Portlander’s are willing to spend on housing contributes to the city’s substantial rent growth. Although this allocation has increased in recent years, the cost ratio is well below the typical one-third of an individual’s gross income, and also below many other West Coast cities which often exceed 35%. The current gap between similar markets, positions Portland well among its western US peers, and suggests that rents may have room to grow until they reach comparable levels.
MAX Orange Line Expansion: The 7.3-mile light rail extension was just completed in South Portland. The $1.5 billion infrastructure investment is estimated to generate 14,500 jobs and $573 million in personal earnings in the MSA. The project also includes a $143 million transit bridge named Tilikum Crossing. Both projects were under budget and ahead of schedule.
Recent Notable News
Nike: In early 2015, Nike began construction on its $440+ million, 1.3 million sq. ft. campus expansion. Development plans consist of two new office buildings, 288,000 sq. ft. accessory space and 4,700 additional employee parking spaces. The expansion is projected to create 12,000 direct and indirect jobs by 2020, adding to the company’s employment growth that has exceeded a 60% increase in Portland since 2006.
Oregon Health & Sciences University: OHSU is in the middle of multiple expansion projects, which are largely funded by Phil Knight’s “Billion Dollar Cancer Challenge”. The challenge successfully reached its $500 million public contribution goal in June and will be matched by the Knight family, totaling $1 billion of total contribution. OHSU plans to develop two additional research facilities, as well as an outpatient and guest housing building, at roughly one million sq. ft. in Portland’s South Waterfront. This comes off the 2014 opening of the $295 million Collaborative Life Sciences Building. With more than 650,000 sq. ft. of labs and classrooms, it is the largest educational building in Oregon, catering to over 3,000 employees, students and patients daily.
Under Armour: In April 2015 Under Armour announced plans for expansion, leasing ±70,000 sq. ft. of the former YMCA building just south of Portland CBD. This will nearly quadruple the company’s existing Portland office space, and provide room for an estimated 300 additional employees.
Google: During the 1st quarter of 2015, Google announced the opening of a Portland office, leasing 5,000 sq. ft. in the U.S. Bank building in downtown Portland. Sources estimate that 100 employees will move into the space, and also suggest the company is seeking additional space in the downtown area.
Portland MSA Capital TrendsThe Portland apartment market had a record amount of transactions and total sales volume throughout the first half of 2015. Year-to-date, there have been 22 transactions over $10MM—twice the amount at this point in 2014 —for a total sales volume of $729,561,667 and a 70.6% year-over-year increase. The highly liquid market in 2015 draws comparisons to peak conditions of 2007, as transactional volume has eclipsed pre-recession levels by over 16%. In 2015 the $10MM+ investor pool has become increasingly diverse as 19 different investors have made acquisitions in the market, the highest number for the first half of any year.
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Portland MSA Historical Rolling Sales Price Per Unit
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Portland MSA Historical Rolling 12 Month Sales Volume (+$10M)
Apartments Garden Mid/High rise X Transactions
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Historical Cap Rates — West Coast Markets
Portland Los Angeles San Francisco Seattle
Per unit pricing for multi-family assets in the Portland MSA also registered strong increases during the period, ultimately remaining equal to record highs set in 4Q2014 for three consecutive quarters. Per Real Capital Analytics, the 12-month rolling average sale price per unit was $173,994 ($5MM+ transactions). The 1H2015 price per unit metrics reflect a decline of 2% from record numbers of YE2014 (largely due to 2015 urban transactions having smaller unit sizes), but are 28.4% greater than the peak pricing levels of 2008. Meanwhile, price per square foot metrics saw large increases across both product types, up 9% year-over-year, on average. The increased valuation of “Suburban” property types, which inflated 13% year-over-year and roughly 50% over pre-recession period, had the largest attribution to the accelerated pricing. Exceptional rent growth, coupled with flat, to slightly declining, cap rates as a result of strong investor demand, have driven these price trends.
As cap rates continuously decline, many west coast markets have appreciated in value. The Portland MSA in particular experienced the greatest cap rate compression of comparable markets over the last 12 months, falling 37 bps (Average of major west coast markets was -23 bps). Currently, Portland MSA cap rates for core assets are 4–4.5%, and value-add cap rates are 4.75–5.25%.
Increases in urban transactions and compressed cap rates signal a strong Portland market. These market conditions tend to yield a greater amount of investment activity, which could be a continuing trend for Portland in the coming years.
Since the economic downturn, supply arrived late to the Portland MSA market, creating a shortage of multi-housing units and generating pent-up demand. As seen below, an estimated 6,903 total units were delivered since 2010 throughout the metro area, with approximately 2,992 units estimated to be currently in lease-up throughout the MSA. During the 5 year time span, the market has experienced positive net absorption of 8,467, averaging a positive net absorption of 1,693 units annually. With the spike in deliveries in 2015, this number has experienced a decline, but still remained positive for the 22nd consecutive quarter. Over the next four years, analysts forecast 14,272 units scheduled for delivery throughout the market, relieving some demand pressure.
Average Quarterly Net Absorption vs. Average Quarterly Deliveries
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NET ABSORPTION
PORTLAND MSA PIPELINE
Submarket # of Properties Units
SW Portland 17 2,733
North Portland 16 1,725
SE Portland 15 1,785
NW Portland 12 1,738
NE Portland 11 1,452
Vancouver 9 1,430
Pearl District 7 1,456
Beaverton 5 884
Lloyd District 4 1,597
Hillsboro 4 1,045
South Waterfront 2 380
Oregon City 2 424
Beaverton/Portland 1 112
Tualatin 1 180
Lake Oswego 1 201
Hazel Dell 1 122
Portland MSA 108 17,264
* Numbers include properties in lease up
DELIVERY BY YEAR
Year # of Properties Units
Leasing/Pre-leasing 16 2,505
2015 10 1,090
2016 28 4,250
2017 13 2,633
2018 1 425
TBD 41 6,572
Total: 109 17,475
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT
Year Units Delivered
2010 660
2011 71
2012 1,465
2013 2,340
2014 3,027
Projected YE 2015 3,624
Total: 11,187
A focus around transit-oriented development will continue, as urban areas and the Orenco Station neighborhood of Hillsboro are scheduled to receive a majority of the deliveries. Despite the projected supply increase in Portland, the demand outlook remains strong, as the MSA added 50,010 households and 122,000 jobs since 2010. Even in light of the additions that have already occurred the vacancy rate is only 3.6% as of today, and has remained relatively flat with an average rate of 4.3% since January 2010.
1. Providing live debt quotes. We function as an active trading desk. Our information sharing system, CapTrack, provides real-time insight on lenders nationwide. We can pull up all quotes from, for instance, the last ten days to help calculate spot-on debt pricing.
2. Feeding an active buyer list. We are informed of buyers nationwide who may be seeking a specific asset type at any given time. This allows us to have continuously updated lists of active buyers in the marketplace.
3. Pushing price. Confidence in financing often leads to more aggressive bidding. Buyers can be more competitive with their bids when the financing options increase.
4. Increasing number of bids. Financing options open up the buyer pool; leveraged buyers are able to compete against formidable all-cash players.
5. Reducing risk. Minimize unrealistic financing offers—the process is open to us, and under our control. From start to finish, we know
what is required for a seamless close and a satisfied client.
Mr. Hughes is an Associate Director with ten years of experience in the commercial real estate and finance industry. He is primarily responsible for investment sales and equity placement for multi-housing transactions in the Pacific Northwest.
Mr. Hughes joined HFF in April 2008. While at HFF, he has contributed to the closing of 89 separate transactions totaling approximately $2.1 billion in volume. These transactions include more than $730 million in debt placement across all product types and $1.37 billion in investment sales and equity placement for multi-housing assets. Prior to joining the firm, Mr. Hughes had three years of multi-housing management experience with HSC Real Estate, Inc.
Mr. Virden is a Managing Director with more than nine years of experience in the commercial real estate and finance industry. He is primarily responsible for investment sales, recapitalizations and raising joint venture equity for multi-housing transactions in the Pacific Northwest.
Mr. Virden joined HFF in January 2012. Prior to joining the firm, Mr. Virden served as a Senior Associate at Apartment Realty Advisors (ARA) where he helped open the Portland office. Prior to that, he was a Senior Associate and Associate Director of the NMHG at Marcus & Millichap.