1 Portfolio Investment Portfolio Investment Survey Survey An International Co-ordinated Database An International Co-ordinated Database Banco de España & IMF Madrid 1 & 2 March 2006 Javier Santiso Chief Development Economist & Deputy Director OECD Development Centre
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Portfolio Investment Survey An International Co-ordinated Database
Portfolio Investment Survey An International Co-ordinated Database. Javier Santiso Chief Development Economist & Deputy Director OECD Development Centre. Banco de España & IMF Madrid 1 & 2 March 2006. 1. CIPS: An essential tool for the future. 2. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Portfolio Investment SurveyPortfolio Investment SurveyAn International Co-ordinated Database An International Co-ordinated Database
Banco de España & IMF
Madrid 1 & 2 March 2006
Javier SantisoChief Development Economist & Deputy Director
OECD Development Centre
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11 CIPS: An essential tool for the futureCIPS: An essential tool for the future
CIPS+: A strategic tool for debt restructuringCIPS+: A strategic tool for debt restructuring22
CIPS+: A strategic tool for emerging marketsCIPS+: A strategic tool for emerging markets33
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CIPS: An essential tool …CIPS: An essential tool …
providing improved coverage by addressing asymmetric issues in reported balance of payments data …
… and especially in portfolio investment flows
undertaken on an annual basis since 2001 with 63 of the participating economies.
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… … that in 2000 would have been that in 2000 would have been very useful for monitoring very useful for monitoring
portfolio flowsportfolio flows
In 2000 no systematic databases of portfolio investments were available
One year spent with a research team of 3 economists to collect microeconomic data
300 interviews conducted with asset managers, buy- side and sell-side strategists Source: Palgrave, 2003.
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Emerging Market Equity Funds : Money Managers Ranked by Total Net Assets, July 2000
The political economy of emerging The political economy of emerging markets: actors, institutions and markets: actors, institutions and
crisescrises
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The political economy of emerging The political economy of emerging markets: actors, institutions and markets: actors, institutions and
crisescrisesGlobal Emerging Markets Funds : Fixed Income
Sample of Interviews, July 2000.Fund Name Assets (USD mios) Fund Manager Domicile
Emerging Markets Growth Fund * 22,638.65 Capital International USCapital International Emerging Markets * 4,310.35 Capital International USSchroder Emerging Markets Fund 2,781.77 Schroder Investment Management UKTempleton Developing Markets Trust * 2,733.49 Templeton Investment Management USTempleton IF Emerging Markets Series * 2,242.67 Templeton Investment Management USGenesis Emerging Markets Fund * 2,180.29 Genesis Investment Management UKMSWD Emerging Markets Portfolio A 1,417.58 Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Investments USSEI Emerging Markets Equity Fund * 1,378.88 SEI Investments USUBS Equity Fund Emerging Markets * 1,227.36 UBS Asset Management CHTempleton Emerging Markets Inv. Trust * 1,136.47 Templeton Investment Management USVanguard Emerging Markets Stock * 1,102.41 Vanguard Group USGMO Emerging Markets Fund * 1,101.66 Grantham, Mayo, van Otterloo USDeutsche GSF Emerging Markets Fund A 1,073.60 Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Asset MGT UKBatterymarch Global Emerging Markets * 1,063.31 Batterymarch Financial Management USEmerging Markets Trust * 931.49 Capital International USInvestlion Emergents 723.03 Credit Lyonnais Asset Management FranceBerstein Emerging Markets Fund 661.89 Sanford C. Bernstein USQuantum Emerging Market Fund * 660.04 Soros Fund Management USAAF Global Emerging Markets Equity * 610.72 ABN Amro Asset Management USMercury ST Emerging Markets Fund 549.42 Mercury Asset Management UKFranklin Templeton IF Emerging Markets * 505.67 Templeton Investment Management USBaring EMUF Global Emerging Markets * 459 Baring Asset Management USFrank Russell Investment EM Fund S 427.35 Frank Russell Investment Management USPictet targeted Fund Emerging Markets 421.62 Pictet Asset Management UKFidelity Institutional Emerging Markets * 418.28 Fidelity USMorgan Stanley Dean Witter EM Fund 407.07 Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Investments USSchroder Global Emerging Markets Fund 391.56 Schroder Investment Management UKSsga Emerging Markets Fund 378.59 State Street Global Advisors USSchroder Emerging Markets Fund 372.01 Schroder Investment Management UKFleming Emerging Markets Fund 359.6 Fleming Asset Management UKJPM Emerging Markets Equity Fund A 324.08 JP Morgan Investment Management USMercury Emerging Markets Fund 304.1 Mercury Asset Management UKFleming Emerging Markets Investment T 272.91 Fleming Asset Management UKF&C Emerging Markets Investment Trust 263.05 Foreign & Colonial Emerging Markets UKCS Equity Fund Emerging Markets Fund 261.4 Credit Suisse Asset Management USAxa Sun Life Emerging Markets Fund 255.22 Axa Sun Life Investment Management France
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100 Largest Emerging Markets Equity Funds, July 2000
Name Assets (USD mios) Ranking
Emerging Markets Growth Fund 22,638 1Capital International Emerging Markets Fund 4,310 2Schroder Emerging Markets Fund 2,781 3Templeton developing Markets Trust 2,733 4Templeton IF Emerging Markets Series 2,424 5Genesis Emerging Markets 2,180 6MSDW IF Emerging Markets Portfolio A 1,417 7SEI Emerging Markets Equity Fund 1,377 8UBS (Ch) Equity Fund Emerging Markets 1,227 9T Rowe Price New Asia Fund 1,205 10Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust 1,136 11Mexico Fund 1,105 12Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund 1,102 13GMO Emerging Markets Fund III 1,101 14Deutsche GSF Global Emerging Markets Fund A 1,073 15Batterymarch Global Emerging Markets Fund 1,063 16Deutsche Profunds Pacific Fund A 1,007 17Korea Fund 1,002 18
The political economy of emerging The political economy of emerging markets: actors, institutions and markets: actors, institutions and
crisescrises
Source: Javier Santiso, The political economy of emerging markets: actors, institutions and financial crises in Latin America, New York, Palgrave, 2003.
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Since 2000 new databases have been Since 2000 new databases have been developed with higher update developed with higher update
Sources: EPFR, Bloomberg, and Santander Investment.
http://www.emergingportfolio.com/
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11 CIPS: An essential tool for the futureCIPS: An essential tool for the future
CIPS+: A strategic tool for debt restructuringCIPS+: A strategic tool for debt restructuring22
CIPS+: A strategic tool for emerging marketsCIPS+: A strategic tool for emerging markets33
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Back to the Argentine Debt Back to the Argentine Debt Default: CIPS+ as a strategic tool?Default: CIPS+ as a strategic tool?
0
40
80
120
160
ARGENTINA2005
ECUADOR2000
PAKISTAN1999
RUSSIA1998-2000
UKRAINE1998-2000
URUGUAY2003
Source: Porzecanski (2005)
0
2
4
6
8
10
J urisdictions Involved (rhs.)
Number of Bonds
Comparison of recent sovereign debt restructurings
The Argentine giant debt default has been epic in scale.
It involved 152 varieties of paper denominated in six currencies and governed by eight jurisdictions.
0
10
20
30
40
1999 2000 2001
Source: Nieto and Santiso (2006)
Argentina Brazil Mexico Venezuela
Latin American Countries: Number of Sovereign Bonds Issued before the Argentinean Crisis
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Back to the Argentine Debt Back to the Argentine Debt Default:Default:
CIPS+ as a strategic tool? CIPS+ as a strategic tool?
0
20
40
60
80
100
ARGENTINA2005
ECUADOR2000
PAKISTAN1999
RUSSIA1998-2000
UKRAINE1998-2000
URUGUAY2003
Source: Porzecanski (2005)
0
10
20
30
40
50
Months in Default (rhs.)
Scope of Sovereign Bond Restructurings($ Billions; lhs.)
Comparison of recent sovereign debt restructurings
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
ARGENTINA2005
ECUADOR2000
PAKISTAN1999
RUSSIA1998-2000
UKRAINE1998-2000
URUGUAY2003
Source: Porzecanski (2005)
Participation Rate (%)
Comparison of recent sovereign debt restructurings
Argentina defaulted on bonds worth $81 billion in December 2001.
It represented the longest period of debt restructuring : no database of Argentine bondholders is available (Lazard was hired for a year for this purpose).
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11 CIPS: An essential tool for the futureCIPS: An essential tool for the future
CIPS+: A strategic tool for debt restructuringCIPS+: A strategic tool for debt restructuring22
CIPS+: A strategic tool for emerging marketsCIPS+: A strategic tool for emerging markets33
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The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks’ Recommendations and
020004000600080001000012000140001600018000CPIS data (US$ mill.)
Recommendation (lhs)
EPFR data (% allocated)
Argentina: Equity flows and recommendations
Argentina (1997-2005):- 67% of underwriters’ recommendations were “neutral” or “overweight”.
- 100% of underwriters’ recommendations were the same or more favorable than the others’ recommendations (25% more favorable).
Source: Sebastián Nieto and Javier Santiso, “The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks Recommendations and Emerging Markets”, forthcoming, Working Paper, 2006.
The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks’ Recommendations and
Emerging Markets Brazil:
- 100% of underwriters’ recommendations were “neutral” or “overweight” (57% were “overweight”).- 70% of underwriters’ recommendations were the same or more favorable than the others’ recommendations (35% more favorable).
Source: Sebastián Nieto and Javier Santiso, “The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks Recommendations and Emerging Markets”, forthcoming, Working Paper, 2006.
The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks’ Recommendations and
Emerging Markets Mexico:
- 85% of underwriters’ recommendations were “neutral” or “overweight” (30% were “overweight”).- 70% of underwriters’ recommendations were the same or more favorable than the others’ recommendations (40% more favorable).
Source: Sebastián Nieto and Javier Santiso, “The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks Recommendations and Emerging Markets”, forthcoming, Working Paper, 2006.
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Thank youThank youfor your attention!for your attention!
Annex 1 The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks’ Recommendations and
Emerging Markets
Source: Sebastián Nieto and Javier Santiso, “The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks Recommendations and Emerging Markets”, forthcoming, Working Paper, 2006.
CPIS data (US$ mill.) Recommendation (lhs) EPFR data (% allocated)
Colombia: Equity flows and recommendations
Annex 2 The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks’ Recommendations and
Emerging Markets
Source: Sebastián Nieto and Javier Santiso, “The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks Recommendations and Emerging Markets”, forthcoming, Working Paper, 2006.
Annex 3 The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks’ Recommendations and
Emerging Markets
Source: Sebastián Nieto and Javier Santiso, “The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks Recommendations and Emerging Markets”, forthcoming, Working Paper, 2006.