Phn tch c bn - Phn tch mi trng ngnh vi m hnh 5 p lc - The
Porter's Five forces model1. p lc cnh tranh ca nh cung cp
S lng v quy m nh cung cp: S lng nh cung cp s quyt nh n p lc cnh
tranh, quyn lc m phn ca h i vi ngnh, doanh nghip. Nu trn th trng ch
c mt vi nh cung cp c quy m ln s to p lc cnh tranh, nh hng ti ton b
hot ng sn xut kinh doanh ca ngnh.
Kh nng thay th sn phm ca nh cung cp : Trong vn ny ta nghin cu kh
nng thay th nhng nguyn liu u vo do cc nh cung cp v chi ph chuyn i
nh cung cp (Switching Cost).
Thng tin v nh cung cp : Trong thi i hin ti thng tin lun l nhn t
thc y s pht trin ca thng mi, thng tin v nh cung cp c nh hng ln ti
vic la chn nh cung cp u vo cho doanh nghip.
Hin nay trn th trng ch c 2 nh cung cp chip ( B vi x l -CPU) cho
my tnh l AMD v Intel. Tt c cc my tnh bn ra trn th gii u s dng b vi
x l ca hai hng ny chnh v quyn lc m phn ca Intel v AMD vi cc doanh
nghip sn xut my tnh l rt ln.
Mt trng hp na ngay trong ngnh cng ngh thng tin l cc sn phm ca h
iu hnh Window nh Word, Excel. Cc nh sn xut my tnh khng c s la chn v
cha c h iu hnh, cc sn phm son tho vn bn no p ng c nhu cu tng ng vi
cc sn phm ca Mircosoft.
Vi tt c cc ngnh, nh cung cp lun gy cc p lc nht nh nu h c quy m ,
s tp hp v vic s hu cc ngun lc qu him. Chnh v th nhng nh cung cp cc
sn phm u vo nh l (Nng dn, th th cng.... ) s c rt t quyn lc m phn i
vi cc doanh nghip mc d h c s lng ln nhng h li thiu t chc.
2. p lc cnh tranh t khch hng
Khch hng l mt p lc cnh tranh c th nh hng trc tip ti ton b hot ng
sn xut kinh doanh ca ngnh.
Khch hng c phn lm 2 nhm:+Khch hng l+Nh phn phi
C hai nhm u gy p lc vi doanh nghip v gi c, cht lng sn phm, dch v
i km v chnh h l ngi iu khin cnh tranh trong ngnh thng qua quyt nh
mua hng.Tng t nh p lc t pha nh cung cp ta xem xt cc tc ng n p lc
cnh tranh t khch hng i vi ngnh+ Quy m+Tm quan trng+Chi ph chuyn i
khch hng+Thng tin khch hng
c bit khi phn tch nh phn phi ta phi ch tm quan trng ca h, h c th
trc tip i su vo uy hip ngay trong ni b ca doanh nghip.
Wal- Mart l nh phn phi ln c tm nh hng ton th gii, h thng phn phi
ca Wal mart c th nh hng ti nhiu ngnh hng nh thc phm, hng in t , cc
hng hng ha tiu dng hng ngy. Wal Mart c quyn lc m phn vi cc doanh
nghip khc v gi c, cht lng sn phm cng nh cc chnh sch marketing khi a
hng vo trong h thng ca mnh.
i vi cc doanh nghip va v nh ti Vit Nam, vic a cc sn phm vo h
thng phn phi ca cc siu th lun gp phi kh khn v tr ngi v cc p lc v gi
v cht lng. Hu ht cc sn phm ca Vit Nam nh dt may, da giy rt kh xm
nhp vo cc th trng ln nh M ,EU nu khng qua h thng phn phi. Chnh v vy
chng ta c lng nghe nhng cu chuyn v vic mt i giy sn xut Vit Nam bn
cho nh phn phi vi gi thp cn ngi dn Vit Nam khi mua hng nc ngoi th
phi chu nhng ci gi ct c so vi sn phm cng chng loi trong nc.
3.p lc cnh tranh t i th tim n:
Theo M-Porter, i th tim n l cc doanh nghip hin cha c mt trn
trong ngnh nhng c th nh hng ti ngnh trong tng lai. i th tim n nhiu
hay t, p lc ca h ti ngnh mnh hay yu s ph thuc vo cc yu t sau+ Sc hp
dn ca ngnh: Yu t ny c th hin qua cc ch tiu nh t sut sinh li, s lng
khch hng, s lng doanh nghip trong ngnh.+Nhng ro cn gia nhp ngnh : l
nhng yu t lm cho vic gia nhp vo mt ngnh kh khn v tn km hn .1. K
thut2. Vn3. Cc yu t thng mi : H thng phn phi, thng hiu , h thng
khch hng ...4. Cc ngun lc c th: Nguyn vt liu u vo ( B kim sot ),
Bng cp , pht minh sng ch, Ngun nhn lc, s bo h ca chnh ph ....Khng
ai c th lng c vic Apple s cho ra i my nghe nhc Ipod nh bi ngi hng v
cng ngh mutilmedia nh Sony. R rng sc hp dn ca cu cc thit b nghe nhc
a Ipod tr thnh sn phm cng ngh c a chung nht. Chnh Sony t lm cc ro
cn v cng ngh, thng hiu ca mnh gim st bng vic qu ch trng vo pht trin
theo chiu rng nhiu ngnh ngi t hon Apple thm nhp v kim sot ton b th
trng, bin li th cnh tranh ca Sony tr thnh gnh nng cho chnh h.
Tng t nh v d trn chng ta so snh trong ngnh cng nghip nng nh sn
xut my bay. Ro cn gia nhp ngnh qu ln c v vn, cng ngh, nguyn vt liu
u vo nn hin ti ch c 2 hng hng khng ln cnh tranh vi nhau l Airbus v
Boeing. Nu khng c s t bin v cng ngh ch to ra sn phm mi hoc l ti u
hn my bay ( Loi my no c th i t ni ny sang ni khc nh truyn c tch)
hoc l tnh nng tng tng nhng gi v cng ngh r hn th chc chn ro cn gia
nhp ngnh ch to my bay vn l ch qu xa cho cc doanh nghip khc.
4. p lc cnh tranh t sn phm thay th
Sn phm v dch v thay th l nhng sn phm, dch v c th tha mn nhu cu
tng ng vi cc sn phm dch v trong ngnh.
Ta c th ly lun v d sau mi a ra cc nhn nh v p lc cnh tranh ch yu
ca sn phm thay th :
Phn ln thnh vin trong Saga l cc qu ng. M cc qu ng th c s thch
ung bia, ru khi ung vo ri th l say, say th cc phu nhn s khng thch.
Cc bc thng li cho bn b, ng nghip, i tc .... bin c cho vic mnh tiu
th lng ln bia b sung doanh thu cho cc hng bia hi. Vy bia tha mn nhu
cu g :+ Gp g i tc+ T hp bn b+ Bn cng vic vi ng nghip.... cn v vn l
do khc nhng ta xt trn phng din cng vic nn ch dng mt vi yu t nhn
nh.
Vy sn phm thay th ca bia, ru l mt hng ha ( hoc dch v c th tha mn
cc nhu cu trn). Ti y ti xin lit k mt s hng ha c th thay th c bia ru
: Ung cafe, ung tr, chi th thao .Cc dch v ny c th tha mn cc nhu cu
trn v thm vo mt li ch l c ch em saganor hoan nghnh.
Qua v d trn chng ta thy p lc cnh tranh ch yu ca sn phm thay th l
kh nng p ng nhu cu so vi cc sn phm trong ngnh, thm vo na l cc nhn t
v gi, cht lng , cc yu t khc ca mi trng nh vn ha, chnh tr, cng ngh
cng s nh hng ti s e da ca sn phm thay th.
Tnh bt ng, kh d on ca sn phm thay th : Ngay c trong ni b ngnh vi
s pht trin ca cng ngh cng c th to ra sn phm thay th cho ngnh mnh.
in thoi di ng chnh l sn phm thay th cho in thoi c nh v sp ti l VOIP
s thay th cho c hai sn phm c.
Chi ph chuyn i: Chng ta bit cc phn mm m ngun m nh Linux hay nh
Vit Nam l Viet Key Linux gi thnh rt r thm ch l min ph nhng rt t ngi
s dng v chi ph chuyn i t h iu hnh Window v cc ng dng trong n sang
mt h iu hnh khc l rt cao v c th nh hng n hot ng, cc cng vic trn my
tnh.
5. p lc cnh tranh ni b ngnh
Cc doanh nghip ang kinh doanh trong ngnh s cnh tranh trc tip vi
nhau to ra sc p tr li ln ngnh to nn mt cng cnh tranh. Trong mt ngnh
cc yu t sau s lm gia tng sc p cnh tranh trn cc i th+ Tnh trng ngnh
: Nhu cu, tc tng trng ,s lng i th cnh tranh...+ Cu trc ca ngnh :
Ngnh tp trung hay phn tn Ngnh phn tn l ngnh c rt nhiu doanh nghip
cnh tranh vi nhau nhng khng c doanh nghip no c kh nng chi phi cc
doanh nghip cn li Ngnh tp trung : Ngnh ch c mt hoc mt vi doanh
nghip nm gi vai tr chi phi ( iu khin cnh tranh- C th coi l c quyn)+
Cc ro cn rt lui (Exit Barries) : Ging nh cc ro cn gia nhp ngnh, ro
cn rt lui l cc yu t khin cho vic rt lui khi ngnh ca doanh nghip tr
nn kh khn : Ro cn v cng ngh, vn u t Rng buc vi ngi lao ng Rng buc
vi chnh ph, cc t chc lin quan (Stakeholder) Cc rng buc chin lc, k
hoch.
Th trng cung cp dch v vin thng di ng Vit Nam hin nay c rt nhiu
nh cung cp nhng quyn lc chi phi th trng vn nm trong tay 3 nh cung
cp dch v vin thng l Vina Phone , Mobifone v Viettel.. Nhu cu s dng
dch v ca Vit Nam tng khong 5-10%/ nm, doanh thu, li nhun ca cc nh
cung cp cng tng vi con s tng ng. Mc d cho cc ro cn gia nhp ngnh, ro
cn rt lui .... l cao, p lc t khch hng khng ng k nhng ang c rt nhiu
doanh nghip chun b gia nhp vo th trng . Mt iu ng mng hn na l s ra i
ca ngnh dch v km theo dch vu vin thng nh : Cc tng i gii tr, c cc,
cc dch v khc m in hnh gn y l xem gi chng khon qua mng di ng. Vi xu
hng ny sc cnh tranh trong ni b ngnh s ngy cng gia tng v lc ngi tiu
dng s ngy cng c tn trng hn.
6. p lc t cc bn lin quan mt thit
y l p lc khng c cp trc tip ngay trong ma trn nhng trong quyn sch
" Strategic Management & Business Policy" ca Thomas L. Wheelen
v J. David Hunger c ghi ch v p lc t cc bn lin quan mt thit.+ Chnh
ph+ Cng ng+ Cc hip hi+ Cc ch n, nh ti tr+ C ng+ Complementor ( Tm
hiu l nh cung cp sn phm b sung cho mt hoc nhiu ngnh khc: Microsoft
vit phn mm cho cc cng ty bn c my tnh, cc doanh nghip khc c th son
tho vn bn bn c hng ...)
Sau khi phn tch xong m hnh 5 p lc, chng ta c th s dng nhm chin
lc m t cc doanh nghip trong ngnh trn mt th.Trong iu kin hn hp ti s
a ra mt s kin thc c bn xc nh nhm chin lc.+ Phng php xc nh nhm chin
lc: Xy dng s + Mc ch xy dng : Phn bit cc doanh nghip vi nhau v nh v
cc doanh nghip trn cng mt s , t gip cc doanh nghip c th xc nh v tr
ca mnh trn th trng+ Cc tiu ch s dng xy dng s : Gi, cht lng, cng
ngh, thng hiu, th phn ... v c th xy dng thnh nhiu s , nhiu cp tiu
ch.
M hnh 5 p lc cnh tranh ca Michael Porter (Marketing Box) - M hnh
cnh tranh hon ho ng rng tc iu chnh li nhun theo mc ri ro l tng ng
nhau gia cc doanh nghip v ngnh kinh doanh. Tuy nhin, v s nghin cu
kinh t khng nh rng cc ngnh khc nhau c th duy tr cc mc li nhun khc
nhau v s khc bit ny phn no c gii thch bi cu trc khc nhau ca cc
ngnh.
Michael Porter, nh hoch nh chin lc v cnh tranh hng u th gii hin
nay, cung cp mt khung l thuyt phn tch. Trong , ng m hnh ha cc ngnh
kinh doanh v cho rng ngnh kinh doanh no cng phi chu tc ng ca nm lc
lng cnh tranh. Cc nh chin lc ang tm kim u th ni tri hn cc i th c th
s dng m hnh ny nhm hiu r hn bi cnh ca ngnh kinh doanh mnh ang hot
ng.Michael-PorterM hnh Porters Five Forces c xut bn ln u trn tp ch
Harvard Business Review nm 1979 vi ni dung tm hiu yu t to ra li
nhun trong kinh doanh. M hnh ny, thng c gi l Nm lc lng ca Porter, c
xem l cng c hu dng v hiu qu tm hiu ngun gc li nhun. Quan trng hn c,
m hnh ny cung cp cc chin lc cnh tranh doanh nghip duy tr hay tng li
nhun.Cc doanh nghip thng s dng m hnh ny phn tch xem h c nn gia nhp
mt th trng no , hoc hot ng trong mt th trng no khng. Tuy nhin, v mi
trng kinh doanh ngy nay mang tnh ng, nn m hnh ny cn c p dng tm kim
trong mt ngnh nht nh cc khu vc cn c ci thin sn sinh nhiu li nhun
hn. Cc c quan chnh ph, chng hn nh y ban chng c quyn v st nhp Anh,
hay B phn chng c quyn v B T php M, cng s dng m hnh ny phn tch xem
liu c cng ty no ang li dng cng chng hay khng.Theo Michael Porter,
cng cnh tranh trn th trng trong mt ngnh sn xut bt k chu tc ng ca 5
lc lng cnh tranh sau:1. Sc mnh nh cung cp th hin cc c im sau:- Mc
tp trung ca cc nh cung cp,- Tm quan trng ca s lng sn phm i vi nh
cung cp,- S khc bit ca cc nh cung cp,- nh hng ca cc yu t u vo i vi
chi ph hoc s khc bit ha sn phm,- Chi ph chuyn i ca cc doanh nghip
trong ngnh,- S tn ti ca cc nh cung cp thay th,- Nguy c tng cng s hp
nht ca cc nh cung cp,- Chi ph cung ng so vi tng li tc ca ngnh.2.
Nguy c thay th th hin :- Cc chi ph chuyn i trong s dng sn phm,- Xu
hng s dng hng thay th ca khch hng,- Tng quan gia gi c v cht lng ca
cc mt hng thay th.3. Cc ro cn gia nhp th hin :- Cc li th chi ph
tuyt i,- S hiu bit v chu k dao ng th trng,- Kh nng tip cn cc yu t u
vo,- Chnh sch ca chnh ph,- Tnh kinh t theo quy m,- Cc yu cu v vn,-
Tnh c trng ca nhn hiu hng ha,- Cc chi ph chuyn i ngnh kinh doanh,-
Kh nng tip cn vi knh phn phi,- Kh nng b tr a,- Cc sn phm c quyn.4.
Sc mnh khch hng th hin :- V th mc c,- S lng ngi mua,- Thng tin m
ngi mua c c,- Tnh c trng ca nhn hiu hng ha,- Tnh nhy cm i vi gi,- S
khc bit ha sn phm,- Mc tp trung ca khch hng trong ngnh,- Mc sn c ca
hng ha thay th,- ng c ca khch hng.5. Mc cnh tranh th hin :- Cc ro
cn nu mun thot ra khi ngnh,- Mc tp trung ca ngnh,- Chi ph c nh/gi
tr gia tng,- Tnh trng tng trng ca ngnh,- Tnh trng d tha cng sut,-
Khc bit gia cc sn phm,- Cc chi ph chuyn i,- Tnh c trng ca nhn hiu
hng ha,- Tnh a dng ca cc i th cnh tranh,- Tnh trng sng lc trong
ngnh.Phn tch nm lc lng cnh tranh1. Mc cnh tranh (Degree of
Rivalry)Trong m hnh kinh t truyn thng, cnh tranh gia cc doanh nghip
i th y li nhun tin dn ti con s 0, nhng trong cuc cnh tranh ngy nay,
cc doanh nghip khng ngy th n mc chu chp nhn gi mt cch th ng. Trn
thc t, cc hng u c gng c c li th cnh tranh so vi i th ca mnh. Cng
cnh tranh thay i khc nhau ty theo tng ngnh, v cc nh phn tch chin lc
rt quan tm n nhng im khc bit .Cc nh kinh t nh gi kh nng cnh tranh
theo cc ch s v mc tp trung ca ngnh, v t l tp trung (Concentration
Ration CR) l mt trong nhng ch s phi k n u tin. Ch s ny cho bit phn
trm th phn do 4 hng ln nht trong ngnh nm gi. Ngoi ra cn c ch s CR v
t l th trng do 8, 25 v 50 hng u ngnh kim sot. Ch s cng cao cho thy
mc tp trung th phn vo cc hng ln nht cng ln, ng ngha vi vic ngnh c
mc tp trung cao. Nu ch c mt s hng nm gi phn ln th phn, th ngnh s
mang tnh cnh tranh t hn (gn vi c quyn bn). T l tp trung thp cho thy
ngnh c rt nhiu i th, trong khng c i th no chim th phn ng k. Cc th
trng gm nhiu mnh ghp ny c cho l c tnh cnh tranh. Tuy nhin, t l tp
trung khng phi l ch s duy nht, bi v xu hng nh ngha ngnh mang nhiu
thng tin hn so vi s phn b th phn.Nu mc cnh tranh gia cc hng trong
mt ngnh thp, th ngnh c coi l c k lut. K lut ny c th l kt qu ca lch
s cnh tranh trong ngnh, vai tr ca hng ng u, hoc s tun th vi cc chun
mc o c chung. S cu kt gia cc cng ty nhn chung l khng hp php. Trong
nhng ngnh c mc cnh tranh thp, cc ng thi cnh tranh chc chn b hn ch
mt cch khng chnh thc. Tuy nhin, mt cng ty khng chp nhn tun th lut l
m tm kim li th cnh tranh c th lm mt i ci th trng c k lut .Khi mt i
th hnh ng theo cch khin cc hng khc buc phi tr a, th tnh cnh tranh
th trng s tng ln. Cng cnh tranh thng c miu t l tn khc, mnh m, va
phi, hoc yu, ty theo vic cc hng n lc ginh li th cnh tranh n mc no.
c c li th cnh tranh so vi cc i th, mt doanh nghip c th chn mt s ng
thi cnh tranh nh sau:- Thay i gi tng hoc gim gi c c li th ngn hn.-
Tng s khc bit ca sn phm ci thin cc c tnh, i mi qu trnh sn xut v i
mi sn phm.- S dng cc knh phn phi mt cch sng to dng hi nhp theo chiu
dc hoc s dng mt knh phn phi mi cha c trong ngnh. Chng hn nh trong
ngnh bun bn kim hon, cc ca hng kim hon cao cp ngn ngi khng bn ng h,
hng Timex chuyn ti cc ca hng thuc v cc i l khng truyn thng khc. Nh
, hng hon ton lm ch th trng ng h c gi t thp n trung bnh.- Khai thc
mi quan h vi cc nh cung cp v d, t nhng nm 1950 1970, hng Sears,
Roebuck v Co. chi phi th trng hng gia dng bn l. Sears t ra cc tiu
chun cht lng cao v yu cu cc nh cung cp phi p ng cc yu cu v ch s k
thut v gi sn phm ca h.Cng cnh tranh chu nh hng ca cc c im ngnh sau
y:S lng cng ty ln. S lng cng ty ln lm tng tnh cnh tranh, v c nhiu
hng hn trong khi tng s khch hng v ngun lc khng i. Tnh cnh tranh s
cng mnh hn nu cc hng ny c th phn tng ng nhau, dn n phi chin u ginh
v tr chi phi th trng.Th trng tng trng chm. c im ny khin cc hng phi
cnh tranh tch cc hn chim gi th phn. Trong mt th trng tng trng cao,
cc hng c kh nng tng doanh thu c th ch do th trng m rng.Cc chi ph c
nh cao. Chi ph c nh cao thng tn ti trong mt ngnh c tnh kinh t theo
quy m, c ngha l chi ph gim khi quy m sn xut tng. Khi tng chi ph ch
ln hn khng ng k so vi cc chi ph c nh, th cc hng phi sn xut gn vi
tng cng sut t c mc chi ph thp nht cho tng n v sn phm. Nh vy, cc hng
s phi bn mt s lng rt ln sn phm trn th trng, v v th phi tranh ginh
th phn, dn n cng cnh tranh tng ln.Chi ph lu kho cao hoc sn phm d h
hng. c im ny khin nh sn xut mun bn hng ha cng nhanh cng tt. Nu cng
thi im , cc nh sn xut khc cng mun bn sn phm ca h th cuc cnh tranh
ginh khch hng s tr nn d di.Chi ph chuyn i hng ha thp. Khi mt khch
hng d dng chuyn t s dng sn phm ny sang sn phm khc, th mc cnh tranh
s cao hn do cc nh sn xut phi c gng gi chn khch hng.Mc khc bit ha sn
phm thp. c im ny lun dn n mc cnh tranh cao. Ngc li, nu sn phm ca cc
hng khc nhau c c im hng ha khc nhau r rt s gim cnh tranh.Kh nng
thay i chin lc cao. Kh nng thay i chin lc cao xy ra khi mt hng ang
mt dn v th th trng ca mnh, hoc c tim nng ginh c nhiu li nhun hn.
Tnh hung ny cng lm tng tnh cnh tranh trong ngnh.Cc ro cn thot ra
cao. c im ny khin doanh nghip phi chu mt chi ph cao, nu mun t b
khng sn xut sn phm na. V th hng buc phi cnh tranh. Ro cn ny lm cho
mt doanh nghip buc phi li trong ngnh, ngay c khi cng vic kinh doanh
khng thun li lm. Mt ro cn ph bin l tnh c trng ca ti sn c nh. Khi nh
my v thit b c tnh chuyn mn ha cao th kh c th bn cc ti sn cho nhng
ngnh khc. Vic hng Litton Industries ginh c cc thit b ca hng ng tu
Ingall Shipbuilding minh ha r iu ny. Litton rt thnh cng trong thp k
1960 vi cc hp ng ng tu cho Hi qun. Nhng khi chi quc phng ca M gim
xung, Litton nhn thy r kh nng gim doanh s cng nh li nhun. Hng quyt
nh c cu li, nhng vic t b xng ng tu khng thc hin c, do khng bn c cc
thit b ng tu t tin v mang tnh chuyn mn ha cao. Cui cng, Litton buc
phi li trong th trng ng tu ang xung dc.
Mc cnh tranh trong ngnh ngn hng Vit NamBi vit ny s dng m hnh ca
Michael Porter (Nm lc lng ca Porter - Porters 5 forces) nhn vo th
trng ngn hng Vit Nam v phn tch nhng lc lng cnh tranh, cc xu hng pht
trin cng nh c hi khai thc to nn li th cnh tranh ph hp vi ngun lc ca
cc ngn hng.Nguy c t cc ngn hng miNu cc ngn hng mi d dng gia nhp th
trng th mc cnh tranh s cng lc cng gia tng. Nguy c t cc ngn hng mi s
ph thuc vo cao ca ro cn gia nhp. Theo cc cam kt khi gia nhp WTO,
lnh vc ngn hng s c m ca dn theo l trnh by nm. Ngnh ngn hng c nhng
thay i c bn khi cc t chc ti chnh nc ngoi c th nm gi c phn ca cc ngn
hng Vit Nam v s xut hin ca cc ngn hng 100% vn nc ngoi. Ngay t nm
2006, Vit Nam g b dn cc hn ch v t l tham gia c phn trong ngnh ngn
hng ca cc nh ch ti chnh nc ngoi theo cam kt trong Hip nh thng mi vi
Hoa K. Cn theo cc cam kt trong khun kh Hip nh chung v hp tc thng mi
dch v (AFAS) ca Hip hi cc nc ASEAN, Vit Nam phi g b hon ton cc quy
nh v khng ch t l tham gia gp vn, dch v, gi tr giao dch ca cc ngn
hng nc ngoi t nm 2008. c nm ngn hng 100% vn nc ngoi c cp php thnh
lp ti Vit Nam. Tuy nhin khi nhn vo con s cc ngn hng nc ngoi c vn
phng i din ti Vit Nam v cc ngn hng nc ngoi c vn c phn trong cc ngn
hng thng mi ni a, s ngn hng 100% vn nc ngoi nht nh s cn tng ln
trong tng lai.Cc ngn hng nc ngoi l vy, ro cn cho s xut hin ca cc
ngn hng c ngun gc ni a ang c nng cao ln sau khi Chnh ph tm ngng cp
php thnh lp ngn hng mi t thng 8-2008. Ngoi cc quy nh v vn iu l,
qung thi gian phi lin tc c li, cc ngn hng mi thnh lp cn b gim st
cht bi Ngn hng Nh nc. Tuy nhin iu s khng th ngn cn nhng doanh
nghip, iu kin, tham gia vo ngnh ngn hng mt khi Chnh ph cho php thnh
lp ngn hng tr li.Ro cn gia nhp cn c th hin qua cc phn khc th trng,
th trng mc tiu m cc ngn hng hin ti ang nhm n, gi tr thng hiu cng nh
c s khch hng, lng trung thnh ca khch hng m cc ngn hng xy dng c.
Nhng iu ny c bit quan trng bi v n s quyt nh kh nng tn ti ca mt ngn
hng ang mun gia nhp vo th trng Vit Nam. Mt khi cc ngn hng hin ti xy
dng c cho mnh mt thng hiu bn vng, vi nhng sn phm, dch v ti chnh hiu
qu v khc bit cng vi mt c s khch hng ng o v trung thnh, chi ph chuyn
i (switching cost) li ko khch hng ca ngn hng mi thnh lp s cc k cao
v do h bt buc phi cn nhc tht k trc khi quyt nh gia nhp th trng hay
khng. Thc t trn th trng ngnh ngn hng Vit Nam cho thy chi ph chuyn i
nhn chung khng cao do cc ngn hng cha tht s to c im khc bit v chin
lc sn phm, dch v. Mt yu t c th lm tng chi ph chuyn i ln mt cht v to
mt li th cnh tranh cho cc ngn hng ang hot ng l h thng phn phi. Cc
ngn hng thnh lp sau ny s gp kh nhiu rc ri trong vic tm mt a im ng t
vn phng chnh cng nh cc chi nhnh vn phng giao dch bi v cc v tr p v
tin li u b cc ngn hng ang hot ng dnh mt. Tuy vy, cc ngn hng thnh lp
sau ny vn c th da vo li th cng ngh pht trin h thng kinh doanh ca
mnh thng qua Internet banking hoc h thng ATM.Nhn vo ngnh ngn hng
Vit Nam hin ti trong bi cnh Vit Nam cng nh th gii ang b bao trm bi
cuc khng hong kinh t, ro cn gia nhp kh cao khin cho nguy c xut hin
ngn hng mi trong tng lai gn l kh thp. Nhng mt khi kinh t th gii hi
phc cng vi s m ca ca ngnh ngn hng theo cc cam kt vi WTO v cc t chc
khc, s xut hin ca cc ngn hng mi l mt iu gn nh chc chn.Nguy c b thay
thC bn m ni, cc sn phm v dch v ca ngnh ngn hng Vit Nam c th xp vo 5
loi: L ni nhn cc khon tin (lng, tr cp, cp dng) L ni gi tin (tit
kim) L ni thc hin cc chc nng thanh ton L ni cho vay tin L ni hot ng
kiu hii vi khch hng doanh nghip, nguy c ngn hng b thay th khng cao
lm do i tng khch hng ny cn s r rng cng nh cc chng t, ha n trong cc
gi sn phm v dch v ca ngn hng. Nu c phin h xy ra trong qu trnh s dng
sn phm, dch v th i tng khch hng ny thng chuyn sang s dng mt ngn hng
khc v nhng l do trn thay v tm ti cc dch v ngoi ngn hng. i vi khch
hng tiu dng th li khc, thi quen s dng tin mt khin cho ngi tiu dng
Vit Nam thng gi tin mt ti nh hoc nu c ti khon th khi c tin li rt ht
ra s dng. Cc c quan Chnh ph v doanh nghip tr lng qua ti khon ngn
hng nhm thc y cc phng thc thanh ton khng dng tin mt, gp phn lm minh
bch ti chnh cho mi ngi dn. Nhng cc a im chp nhn thanh ton bng th li
a s l cc nh hng, khu mua sm sang trng, nhng ni khng phi ngi dn no
cng ti mua sm. Ngay cc siu th, ngi tiu dng cng phi ch i nhn vin i
ly my c th hoc i ti mt quy khc khi mun s dng th thanh ton. Chnh s
bt tin ny cng vi tm l chung tin mt khin ngi tiu dng mun gi v s dng
tin mt hn l thng qua ngn hng. Ngoi hnh thc gi tit kim ngn hng, ngi
tiu dng Vit Nam cn c kh nhiu la chn khc nh gi ngoi t, u t vo chng
khon, cc hnh thc bo him, u t vo kim loi qu (vng, kim cng) hoc u t
vo nh t. l cha k cc hnh thc khng hp php nh chi hi. Khng phi lc no
li sut ngn hng cng hp dn ngi tiu dng. Chng hn nh thi im ny, gi vng
ang st, tng gim t bin trong ngy, trong khi la M th trng t do cng
bin ng th li sut tit kim ca a s cc ngn hng ch mc 7-8% mt nm.Quyn lc
ca khch hngS kin ni bt gn y nht lin quan n quyn lc ca khch hng c l
l vic cc ngn hng quyt nh thu ph s dng ATM trong khi ngi tiu dng
khng ng thun. Trong v vic ny, ngn hng v khch hng ai cng c l l ca
mnh nhng r rng n nh hng khng t n mc hi lng v lng tin ca khch hng.
Nhng khng v th m ta c th nh gi thp quyn lc ca khch hng trong ngnh
ngn hng ti Vit Nam. iu quan trng nht vn l: vic sng cn ca ngn hng da
trn ng vn huy ng c ca khch hng. Nu khng cn thu ht c dng vn ca khch
hng th ngn hng tt nhin s b o thi. Trong khi , nh ni phn trn, nguy c
thay th ca ngn hng Vit Nam, i vi khch hng tiu dng, l kh cao. Vi chi
ph chuyn i thp, khch hng gn nh khng mt mt g nu mun chuyn ngun vn ca
mnh ra khi ngn hng v u t vo mt ni khc.Quyn lc ca cc nh cung cpKhi
nim nh cung cp trong ngnh ngn hng kh a dng. H c th l nhng c ng cung
cp vn cho ngn hng hot ng, hoc l nhng cng ty chu trch nhim v h thng
hoc bo tr my ATM. Hin ti Vit Nam cc ngn hng thng t u t trang thit b
v chn cho mnh nhng nh cung cp ring ty theo iu kin. iu ny gp phn gim
quyn lc ca nh cung cp thit b khi h khng th cung cp cho c mt th trng
ln m phi cnh tranh vi cc nh cung cp khc. Tuy nhin khi tn mt khon
chi ph kh ln vo u t h thng, ngn hng s khng mun thay i nh cung cp v
qu tn km, iu ny li lm tng quyn lc ca nh cung cp thit b thng
thu.Quyn lc ca cc c ng trong ngnh ngn hng th nh th no? Khng nhc n
nhng c ng u t nh l thng qua th trng chng khon m ch ni n nhng i c ng
c th c tc ng trc tip n chin lc kinh doanh ca mt ngn hng. Nhn chung
hu ht cc ngn hng Vit Nam u nhn u t ca mt ngn hng khc. Quyn lc ca nh
u t s tng ln rt nhiu nu nh h c c phn v vic sp nhp vi ngn hng c u t
c th xy ra. mt kha cnh khc, ngn hng u t s c mt tc ng nht nh n ngn
hng c u t. Cng cnh tranh ca cc doanh nghip trong ngnhTrong nm 2008,
McKinsey d bo doanh s ca lnh vc ngn hng bn l Vit Nam c th tng trng
n 25% trong vng 5-10 nm ti, a Vit Nam tr thnh mt trong nhng th trng
ngn hng bn l c tc cao nht chu (*). Tuy khng hong kinh t lm cho tc
tng trng chm li, tc ng xu ti ngnh ngn hng nhng th trng Vit Nam cha
c khai ph ht, tim nng cn rt ln. nh hng tm thi ca cuc khng hong kinh
t s khin cho cc ngn hng gp kh khn trong vic tm kim khch hng mi, dn
n vic cng cnh tranh s tng ln. Nhng khi khng hong kinh t qua i, vi
mt th trng tim nng cn ln nh Vit Nam, cc ngn hng s tp trung khai ph
th trng, tm kim khch hng mi, dn n cng cnh tranh c th gim i.Cng canh
tranh ca cc ngn hng cng tng cao khi c s xut hin ca nhm ngn hng 100%
vn nc ngoi. Ngn hng nc ngoi thng sn c mt phn khc khch hng ring, a s
l doanh nghip t nc h. H phc v nhng khch hng ny t rt lu nhng th trng
khc v khi khch hng m rng th trng sang Vit Nam th ngn hng cng m vn
phng i din theo. Ngn hng ngoi cng khng vng phi nhng ro cn m hin nay
nhiu ngn hng trong nc ang mc phi, in hnh l hn mc cho vay chng khon,
n xu trong cho vay bt ng sn. H c li th lm t u v c nhiu chn la trong
khi vi khng t ngn hng trong nc th iu ny l khng th. Ngoi ra, ngn hng
ngoi cn c khng t li th nh h tng dch v hn hn, dch v khch hng chuyn
nghip, cng ngh tt hn (in hnh l h thng Internet banking). Quan trng
hn na, l kh nng kt ni vi mng li rng khp trn nhiu nc ca ngn hng
ngoi. cnh tranh vi nhm ngn hng ny, cc ngn hng trong nc trang b h
thng h tng cng ngh, sn phm dch v, nhn s... kh quy m. Li th ca ngn
hng trong nc l mi quan h mt thit vi khch hng c sn. Ngn hng trong nc
sn sng linh hot cho vay vi mc u i i vi nhng khch hng quan trng ca
h. Xu hng trong ngnh ngn hngHin nay Vit Nam ang c qu nhiu ngn hng
nhng cha c mt ngn hng thc s mnh tm c quc t. Nhn chung, cc ngn hng
ua nhau m rng quy m mng li huy ng nhiu vn (pht trin theo chiu rng).
Vic ny dn n tnh trng cc ngn hng ang cnh tranh quyt lit vi nhau
trong hot ng tn dng m qun mt cc sn phm v dch v tin ch km theo (chiu
su). ng thi, cc ngn hng m rng quy m nhng do thiu ngun nhn lc c cht
lng cho nn cng tc qun tr li khng theo kp quy m pht trin. Khng hong
kinh t cng mang li rt nhiu kh khn cho ngnh ngn hng, mt s ngn hng
khng th duy tr c mc tng trng trong nm va qua. y chnh l c s nhiu
chuyn gia v sp nhp (M&A) a ra nhn nh rng xu hng sp nhp trong
ngnh ngn hng ang n gn.Tuy nhin, ngnh ngn hng l mt trong nhng ngnh
ngh nhy cm, do vy vic sp nhp ch c th xy ra trong vng mt, hai nm na
khi ngnh ngn hng c m nhiu ca hn theo cam kt vi WTO.Using Porter's 5
Forces To Analyze StocksFundamental Analysis: Qualitative Factors
Various qualitative factors can be easily attained from public
information about the company of interest. A proper system of
corporate governance that adheres to principles of integrity and
transparent disclosures will mitigate the risks of fraudulent
behavior. Furthermore, a valid system of checks and balances
whereby independent third parties assess the integrity of corporate
financial statements and monitor management's behavior are
correlated with positive long-term stock returns. (To learn more
about using qualitative factors to evaluate a company, read
Qualitative Analysis: What Makes A Company Great.)Other qualitative
considerations could include how well the company adapts to social,
technological, economic and political change. Firms with strong
political connections may often be severely crippled once this
support system is removed. Similarly, if a company is entirely
dependent on a current social phenomenon (such as a fad) or a
single technology, changes in these variables may cripple the firm.
This type of analysis is often more difficult than analysis based
on fundamentals because it requires creating hypotheses that cannot
easily be answered. Porter's Forces Porter's five-force framework
is a qualitative tool that applies to investment analysis. The
framework helps analyze a firm's competitive stance in its
industry. Porter's forces examine industry-specific conditions and
help investors determine how well a corporation is positioned to
adapt to changes in its target market. Michael Porter's analysis
serves as an alternative to Albert Humphrey's more common SWOT
(strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) model. Porter's
five forces: The threat of substitute services or products The
threat of increased competition from rivals in the market The
threat of new entrants into the market The bargaining power of
suppliers The bargaining power of customers Using these forces
requires a solid understanding of the general industry/market,
corporate business model and an appreciation for how the business
can adapt to changes in market conditions. Basically, investors
must analyze how a company can respond to the underlying threats.
For example, it's common for a company to rank high in terms of
competitive resistance on four forces and fail horribly on the
fifth. Inevitably, determining how such a scenario would affect an
investment's appeal is up to the investor. (Studying the market
involves more than just reading financial statements. To learn to
predict the direction of the market, read our tutorial on the
Basics Of Technical Analysis.)Threat of Substitute Product or
ServicesThe threat of substitute products or services arises when
customers can easily switch to alternative products (not
necessarily alternative brands). For example, in a society that
experiences drastic population growth, people might begin
substituting their method of primary transportation from motor
vehicles to either bicycles or public transit. Such changes in
behavioral patterns would hinder the performance of the automobile
industry. However, to determine whether such a threat is realistic,
various considerations must be made such as switching costs and the
practicality of alternative products. In the previous example, if
most individuals generally commute short distances on a day-to-day
basis, bicycles could become a realistic threat to car makers. On
the other hand, if the average daily distance one must travel is
significant, people may be less inclined to switch to either buses
or bikes. Threat of Increased Competition From RivalsMarket
saturation will often prevent a single player from gaining an
overriding sales advantage and experiencing a surge in revenue.
This internal threat is present in almost every industry that is
not dominated by a monopoly. When analyzing the sort of threat that
competition imposes, a wide variety of factors must be considered,
such as brand equity, market position, advertising expertise and
technological innovation. In many situations, the largest player in
industry may become obsolete if it is lacking in the traits that
ensure a stable and ongoing competitive edge. Two common metrics
used to determine the competitiveness of a market are the
Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) and the concentration ratio. While
the HHI measures market concentration and the level of competition,
the concentration ratio provides a measure of the percentage of
total market share held by the largest companies in the sector.
Threat of New Entrants Barriers to entry are one of the most
crucial components of Porter's framework. Barriers to entry can
exist in the form of patents, substantial capital requirements,
government regulations, access to a proper distribution network and
technological expertise. Essentially, new entrants into a market
will have to overcome multiple barriers if they are to compete with
the already established companies. If the industry requires
significant initial capital expenditures, smaller firms will simply
be unable to enter the market. (Learn more about barriers to entry
in Economic Moats: A Successful Company's Best Defense.)Quite
often, a firm will be the first on the market with an innovative
technology or service that either automatically creates or
revolutionizes the way business is done in a particular market.
Unless there are firm barriers to entry, competitors can easily
enter the market and replicate the prosperous firm's business
model, thus diminishing the original company's returns. When entry
barriers are lacking, those companies already in the industry will
see their margins reduced and experience a subsequent share price
decline as competition forces the convergence to normal profit
levels. Bargaining Power of SuppliersThe threat of disproportionate
supplier bargaining power is typically a problem for smaller
companies that are exclusively dependent on the inputs provided by
one seller. For example, if a restaurant that specializes in unique
dishes is only able to purchase the ingredients from a single
provider, that supplier can easily increase the prices it charges.
This will either decrease margins for the restaurant, or the
restaurant will have to pass the additional costs of the
ingredients on to its diners. (One of the main factors that
determine pricing is the law of supply and demand. Learn more in
our tutorial, Economic Basics: Demand and Supply.)Large retailers
such as Wal-Mart and Target are generally not at the mercy of their
suppliers since they have access to a wide distribution network.
Smaller niche businesses, however, may face a realistic threat of
price hikes from suppliers. Gaining access to this type of
information - who a business's suppliers are and what the existing
relationship between the buyers and sellers is usually requires
extensive research. Bargaining Power of CustomersWhen Wal-Mart and
Target are viewed as the customers of a transaction, they exert a
substantial amount of buying power. Many businesses are dependent
on large department/retail stores to continue purchasing from them
therefore buyers can negotiate favorable price contracts and
minimize the revenue potential of their suppliers. This threat is
the opposite of the bargaining-power-of-suppliers concern. Similar
to the basic portfolio theory, which states that investors should
diversify their holdings in order to minimize their exposure to any
one security, safe companies should not be entirely dependent on a
single customer. If one customer does not renew its contract, for
example, this should not be enough to bankrupt the supplier. Having
a diverse customer base is key to mitigating this threat. The
Bottom LinePorter's analysis framework defines the important
criteria to determine the stability of a corporation. High threat
levels typically signal that future profits may deteriorate, and
vice versa. For example, a hot firm in a growing industry might
quickly become obsolete if barriers to entry are not present.
Likewise, a company selling products for which there are numerous
substitutes will not be able to exercise pricing power to improve
its margins, and it may even lose market share to its competitors.
The qualitative measures introduced by Michael Porter in Porter's
five-force framework allow investors to draw conclusions about a
corporation that are not immediately apparent on the balance sheet,
but will have a material impact on future performance. Although
quantitative factors such as the price/earnings and debt/equity
ratio are often the primary concerns for investors, qualitative
criteria play an equal role in uncovering stocks that will provide
long-term value.Applying Michael Porters Five Forces to
EquityInvesting While some people see equity investing as a
technical exercise that involves interpreting price charts and
others see it as a purely quantitative process that involves
estimating the value of the company based upon its share price
near-term earnings potential compared to competitors, I take the
view that making successful long-term investments necessitates an
understanding of the companies underlying competitive positions. I
also believe that optimum the framework for such an analysis is
that set out by Harvard Business School Professor Michael E. Porter
in his 1979 article How Competitive Forces Shape Strategy. Porter
used the article to introduce his now-famous five-forces that can
be used to determine whether or not a company has a sustainable
competitive advantage. The forces are: (1) the threat of entry; (2)
the power of suppliers; (3) the power of buyers; (4) the threat of
substitute products or services; and (5) jockeying for position
among current competitors. We will take each in turn.Threat of
EntryAlso known as barriers to entry, this concept involves the
analysis of how easy it is for new competitors to enter the
industry and consequently compete-away the profits currently earned
by existing competitors within the industry. Porter lists the
following barriers to entry: Economies of scale. These can occur in
manufacturing (eg Siemens, ABB, GE), marketing (eg. Vodafone,
ABInBev), purchasing, financial (larger companies tend to benefit
from a lower cost of capital) and managerial (larger companies can
hire more specialised workers). Product differentiation. This can
be seen most clearly in the branded consumer goods industry (eg.
Coca-Cola, LVMH) but it also occurs in any industry where the end
product is both essential and relatively technologically unique
(eg. pharmaceuticals, defence hardware). By selling a branded
differentiated product, consumers may be willing to pay a premium
price for a relatively cheap physical good due to either loyalty or
the intangible connotations attached to being seen with such a
product. With unique essential technology, a company can become a
legal monopolist, but only so long as the product is not
superseded, the patent remains in force, and/or its use remains
essential. Capital requirements. This is arguably a consequence of
economies of scale rather than a separate barrier in its own right.
Where economies of scale exist, new competitors need to enter a
market in size, committing large amounts of capital to purchase
fixed assets, to finance inventory and receivables and to finance
initial operating losses. Clearly, the greater are the economies of
scale, the greater the expected capital requirements to enter the
industry. Higher capital requirements mean the pool of potential
entrants is much reduced, limiting the threat of entry. Cost
advantages independent of size. Such advantages include experience
(eg. many medium-sized companies in the German & Japanese
manufacturing industries), access to unique assets (eg. particular
raw material deposits in the mining industry), proprietary
technology (eg. Nippon Electric Glass), favourable supply
agreements and government subsidies (eg. Boeing and EADS). Access
to distribution channels. For many consumer goods, the supply-chain
is controlled by a small number of participants in each segment,
which often includes the retailers and existing product
manufacturers. This can prevent new entrants from getting their
products to market. Government policy. In certain industries,
governments award either monopoly or preferential rights to
particular operators, preventing or limiting by law entry of
potential competitors. Utilities in most countries would fall into
this category. Sometimes this happens by accident rather than on
purpose, as heavy government regulation (eg in the financial sector
and the healthcare sector) acts to create a high cost of entry for
potential new competitors.Power of SuppliersWhere suppliers can
exert power over a particular business or industry due to their
possession of a stronger competitive position, it is almost certain
that such a group of suppliers will raise prices and/or restrict
output in order to improve their own returns on capital at the
expense of the buyers. Porter identifies the following situations
which allow suppliers to exert such power over their customers: It
is dominated by a few companies and is more concentrated than the
industry it sells to. An example in this case would be the iron ore
industry, the seaborne trade for which is dominated by BHP
Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale. Iron ore is an essential raw material
used in the production of steel, an industry which is much less
concentrated than iron ore. Its product is unique or at least
differentiated. An example of this would be ARM Holdings, which
designs the chip-set used in the Apple iPod, iPhone and iPad.
Although ARM Holdings is a tiny company, it can still earn high
returns due to the specialist nature of its product. Switching
costs exist. Switching costs are one-off costs that need to be paid
in order to change suppliers and do not just include cash costs but
also the likelihood of business disruption that may be caused by
the change. Examples include changing software provider (eg. SAP
and Oracle benefit in this way) or logistics supplier. It poses a
credible threat of integrating forward into the industrys business.
An example here is the bulk chemicals industry, as participants in
the downstream oil industry could easily integrate forward if they
so chose (indeed, many are integrated in such a manner). The
industry is not an important customer of the supplier group.Power
of BuyersSimilar to those that face powerful suppliers, companies
that face strong buyers or buyer groups can find that they or
forced to offer favourable prices or credit terms in order to
retain customers. Porter suggests the following factors that enable
buying groups to squeeze their suppliers for better pricing: It is
concentrated or purchases in large volumes. An example of this is
the automotive manufacturing industry, which purchases many
relatively undifferentiated components from suppliers who have few
if any other customers. This allows to auto industry to set keen
prices for many of its purchases. The products it purchases from
the industry are standard or undifferentiated. This is a problem
for the paper and packaging industry, as most market participants
manufacture identical or relatively standardised products. The bulk
chemical industries face the same issue as its outputs are by
definition chemically identical. The products it purchases from the
industry form a component of its product and represent a
significant fraction of its cost. Supermarkets are a good example
of this point and of the subsequent point. Cost of goods sold
represents the bulk of a supermarkets cost and are sold-on to the
customer at relatively low margins, creating a strong incentive to
bear-down heavily on input costs. It earns low profit margins,
which create great incentive to lower purchasing costs. The
industrys product is unimportant to the quality of the buyers
products or services. Business support services such as the
provision of office-cleaning and waste removal both fall into this
category. The industrys product does not save the buyer money. This
statement applies to the entire cost of goods sold for a retailer
(ie. products are sold to the customer in the same form they are
purchased from suppliers) and many of the input costs of a
manufacturer. Consequently, reducing the costs of such inputs
allows the buyer to pass the savings on to customers (thus becoming
more competitive on price and potentially increasing revenue) or to
increase profit margins. The buyers pose a credible threat of
integrating backward to make the industrys product. This is a
threat which can easily be made by large capital goods
manufacturers such as GE, Siemens and ABB, who have the capital and
the knowledge to produce many of their component inputs if they are
unhappy with the pricing on offer from suppliers.Threat of
SubstitutesPorter notes that where a product or service is unique
(and therefore has no substitutes), companies are able to charge
much higher prices than if the face competition from alternatives.
Good examples of this are certain raw materials which have unique
properties, such as the platinum group metals (used in automotive
catalytic converters) and rare earth metals (used in electronic
equipment). Porter believes that where substitutes do exist, those
that require most management [and investor] attention are those
that: (1) are benefiting from trends improving their
price-performance trade-off relative to the industrys product; or
(2) are produced by industries which currently earn high profits.
He notes that substitutes can arrive rapidly if technological
developments create significant price reductions or performance
improvements.Jockeying for PositionPorter argues that the intensity
of competition is likely to be greatest when the following
conditions are present within an industry: Competitors are numerous
or are roughly equal in size and power. Industry growth is slow,
precipitating fights for market share that involve expansion-minded
members. The packaging industry suffers from this characteristic.
Although incomes are growing in the developed world, the marginal
pound of income is generally spent on services (healthcare,
leisure, tourism, etc), meaning the market for packaging grows only
in the low single digits (it is not economical to transport
packaging). This leads to occasional price wars as rivals seek to
out-grow each other. The product or service lacks differentiation
or switching costs which lock in buyers and protect one combatant
from raids on its customers by another. A good example of this is
the paper industry, as the product is homogenous and switching
costs are zero (indeed, most large printers will source their paper
from a number of suppliers). Fixed costs are high or the product is
perishable, creating strong temptation to cut prices. A good
example of this is the airline industry, as any empty seats perish
as soon as the plane takes-off, while the marginal cost of carrying
an additional passenger on a flight is almost zero (small
additional fuel cost and possibly some free drinks/low-quality
food). Consequently, small declines in customer demand can lead to
large declines in industry pricing. Capacity is normally augmented
in large increments. A good example of this is chemical industry.
Given the economies of scale that are present, any new chemical
plant has to be very large in order to be competitive on price.
Consequently, capacity additions need to occur in large amounts.
This can destabilise pricing equilibrium when the new capacity
comes into production. I would also add to this that capacity
additions which are subject to long time-lags between the
investment decision being made and the arrival on the market of the
new products generally lead to more unstable and competitive
industries. An example of this would be the wine industry, as new
vines do not generally bear a crop until the third year after
planting and take around six years to bear a full crop.
Consequently, the wine industry is plagued by occasional supply
gluts which act to drive-down prices, as recently happened in
Australia. Exit barriers are high. This is most significant in
industries where significant investments have been made in fixed
assets (also known as sunk costs), such as the auto industry or the
airline industry. Such fixed assets tend to be sold to rather than
destroyed upon bankruptcy of a market participant, making it
difficult for the industry to reduce supply to bring it into line
with demand. Airlines may regularly go bankrupt, but the planes
always live to fly another day, maintaining overcapacity in the
industry (I recognise that planes get put in storage in the Mojave
Desert, but these quickly come back into the market once supply and
demand start moving back towards balance). The rivals are diverse
in strategies, origins and personalities. An example of this is the
oil industry, where large integrated firms (eg Exxon-Mobil, BP,
Shell) compete with nationalised/semi-nationalised state-champions
(eg. Petrobras, Saudi Aramco, Gazprom) and a plethora of small
exploration and production companies. The interaction of politics,
long investment time-lags, variable progress in energy efficiency
improvements and the diversity of operators has led to many booms
and busts in the oil exploration and production industry.At this
point in his paper, Porter begins to give advice to company
managers as to how they can incorporate this analytical framework
into their business strategy; however, he gives no advice to
shareholders as to how they might consider this analysis as part of
their investment process. I would make the following suggestions on
this subject:1. Progressing beyond the Graham-Dodd value investing
strategy, it may be justifiable to pay a higher multiple of
earnings or book value for a company that has been identified to
possess a long-term competitive advantage and therefore has the
ability to increase prices and earnings over time.2. Changes in the
five forces can lead to major turning points for companies and
industries which may give rise to significant changes in company
profitability. Consequently, identifying such changes prior to
other investors can lead to opportunities to earn handsome profits
(or protect against disastrous losses).3. Certain industries fare
particularly badly on the five forces model (eg. paper &
packaging, airlines) and I would argue that these should be avoided
for long-term equity investments. However, that is not to say that
companies operating in these industries do not present occasional
interesting trading opportunities at certain points in the
profitability cycle or from a special situations
perspective.Porter's Five Forces: Analyzing the CompetitionWhether
you are starting a new business or looking for more insight into
your existing company's prospects, you probably have questions
about the competition. One way to answer those questions is by
using Porter's Five Forces model.Originally developed by Harvard
Business School's Michael E. Porter in 1979, the five forces model
looks at five specific factors that help determine whether or not a
business can be profitable, based on other businesses in the
industry."Understanding the competitive forces, and their
underlying causes, reveals the roots of an industry's current
profitability while providing a framework for anticipating and
influencing competition (and profitability) over time," Porter
wrote in a Harvard Business Review article. "A healthy industry
structure should be as much a competitive concern to strategists as
their companys own position." According to Porter, the origin of
profitability is identical regardless of industry. In that light,
industry structure is what ultimately drives competition and
profitability not whether an industry produces a product or
service, is emerging or mature, high-tech or low-tech, regulated or
unregulated."If the forces are intense, as they are in such
industries as airlines, textiles, and hotels, almost no company
earns attractive returns on investment," Porter wrote. "If the
forces are benign, as they are in industries such as software, soft
drinks, and toiletries, many companies are
profitable."Understanding the Five ForcesPorter regarded
understanding both the competitive forces and the overall industry
structure as crucial for effective strategic decision-making. In
Porter's model, the five forces that shape industry competition
are:Competitive rivalry.This force examines how intense the
competition currently is in the marketplace, which is determined by
the number of existing competitors and what each is capable of
doing. Rivalry competition is high when there are just a few
businesses equally selling a product or service, when the industry
is growing and when consumers can easily switch to a competitors
offering for little cost. When rivalry competition is high,
advertising and price wars can ensue, which can hurt a business's
bottom line. Rivalry is quantitatively measured by the
Concentration Ratio (CR), which is the percentage of market share
owned by the four largest firms in an industry.Bargaining power of
suppliers.This force analyzes how much power a business's supplier
has and how much control it has over the potential to raise its
prices, which, in turn, would lower a business's profitability. In
addition, it looks at the number of suppliers available: The fewer
there are, the more power they have. Businesses are in a better
position when there are a multitude of suppliers. Sources of
supplier power also include the switching costs of firms in the
industry, the presence of available substitutes, and the supply
purchase cost relative to substitutes.Bargaining power of
customers.This force looks at the power of the consumer to affect
pricing and quality. Consumers have power when there aren't many of
them, but lots of sellers, as well as when it is easy to switch
from one business's products or services to another. Buying power
is low when consumers purchase products in small amounts and the
seller's product is very different from any of its
competitors.Threat of new entrants.This force examines how easy or
difficult it is for competitors to join the marketplace in the
industry being examined. The easier it is for a competitor to join
the marketplace, the greater the risk of a business's market share
being depleted. Barriers to entry include absolute cost advantages,
access to inputs, economies of scale and well-recognized
brands.Threat of substitute products or services.This force studies
how easy it is for consumers to switch from a business's product or
service to that of a competitor. It looks at how many competitors
there are, how their prices and quality compare to the business
being examined and how much of a profit those competitors are
earning, which would determine if they have the ability to lower
their costs even more. The threat of substitutes are informed by
switching costs, both immediate and long-term, as well as a buyer's
inclination to change.Example of Porter's Five ForcesThere are
several examples of how Porter's Five Forces can be applied to
various industries online. As an example, stock analysis firm
Trefislooked at how Under Armour fits into the athletic footwear
and apparel industry.Competitive rivalry Under Armour faces intense
competition from Nike, Adidasand newer players. Nike and Adidas,
which have considerably larger resources at their disposal, are
making a play within the performance apparel market to gain market
share in this up-and-coming product category. Under Armour does not
hold any fabric or process patents, and hence its product portfolio
could be copied in the future.Bargaining power of suppliers A
diverse supplier base limits bargaining power. In 2012, Under
Armour's products were produced by 27 manufacturers located across
14 countries. Of these, the top 10 accounted for 49 percent of the
products manufactured.Bargaining power of customers Under
Armour'scustomers include both wholesale customers as well as end
customers. Wholesale customers, like Dick's Sporting Goods and the
Sports Authority, hold a certain degree of bargaining leverage, as
they could substitute Under Armour's products with other
competitors' to gain higher margins. Bargaining power of end
customers is lower as Under Armour enjoys strong brand
recognition.Threat of new entrants Large capital costs are required
for branding, advertising and creating product demand, and hence
this limits the entry of newer players in the sports apparel
market. However, existing companies in the sports apparel industry
could enter the performance apparel market in the future.Threat of
substitute products The demand for performance apparel, sports
footwear and accessories is expected to continue, and hence we
think this force does not threaten Under Armour in
theforeseeablefuture.Trefis has also completed Porter's Five Forces
analyses of companies, including Facebook, Nike, Coachand Ralph
Lauren.Strategies for successOnce your analysis is complete, it is
time to implement a strategy to expand your competitive advantage.
To that end, Porter identified three "generic strategies"that can
be implemented in any industry, and in companies of any size:Cost
leadership:In this strategy, your goal is to increase profits by
reducing costs while charging industry-standard prices, or to
increase market share by reducing the sales price while retaining
profits.Differentiation: This strategy aims to make the company's
products significantly different from the competition, improving
their competitiveness and value to the public. This strategy
requires both good research and development and effective sales and
marketing teams.Focus: In the focus strategy, businesses select
niche markets in which to sell their goods. This strategy requires
intense understanding of the marketplace, its sellers, buyers and
competitors. The use of this strategy frequently requires the
companies to also implement a cost leadership or differentiation
position.Porter said the new strategy should be executed at the
corporate, business unit and departmental levels. Of these, Porter
considered the business unit most significant.More information
about the generic strategies is available in Porter's 1985 book,
Competitive Advantage(Free Press).Alternatives and addendumsWhile
Porter's Five Forces is an effective and time-tested model, it has
been criticized for failing to explain strategic alliances. In the
1990s, Yale School of Management professors Adam Brandenbuger and
Bare Nalebuff created the idea of a sixth force, "complementors,"
using the tools of game theory. In their model, complementors sell
products and services that are best used in conjunction with a
product or service from a competitor. Intel, which manufactures
processors, and computer manufacturer Apple could be considered
complementors in this model. More information can be found at
Strategic CFO.Regardless of whether the complement force is potent
in your company's industry, additional modeling tools are likely to
help you round out your understanding of your business and its
potential. A value chain analysisaims to help companies understand
where they have the best productive advantage, while the BCG
matrixhelps companies identify which products are likely to benefit
the most from increased investment.