Populism and Global Engagement: Europe, North America and Emerging Economies Bruce Stokes, Director of Economic Attitudes Katie Simmons, Associate Director of Research December 8, 2016
Apr 16, 2017
Populism and Global Engagement: Europe, North America and Emerging Economies
Bruce Stokes, Director of Economic Attitudes
Katie Simmons, Associate Director of Research
December 8, 2016
December 16, 2016 2
Pew Research Center
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• Funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts, Foundations
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• Since 2002, we have surveyed in 93 countries
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www.pewresearch.org
December 16, 2016 3www.pewresearch.org
Methodology
• Surveys conducted in 10 EU nations, the U.S., China and India from April 4 to May 24, 2016, totaling 18,115 respondents
• Based on nationally representative telephone and face-to-face interviews with adults 18 and older conducted under the direction of TNS BMRB and Princeton Survey Research Associates International
• The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ±3.2% - ±4.7%
• The survey in Europe covers countries that account for 80% of the EU-28 population and 82% of the EU-28 GDP
December 16, 2016 5www.pewresearch.org
Concern About Declining National Influence
Compared to 10 years ago, our country plays a __ role in the world today
Note: In U.S. asked about playing “a more important and powerful role as a world leader today.”Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey and Pew Research Center Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.
46%
65
52
50
46
40
33
30
28
28
11
31%
15
23
28
30
37
29
45
43
20
25
21%
17
19
21
23
20
34
23
28
45
62
U.S.
Greece
Italy
Spain
France
UK
Hungary
Netherlands
Sweden
Poland
Germany
Less important As important More important
December 16, 2016 6www.pewresearch.org
Many Americans Say Life Is Worse for Them Today
Compared with 50 years ago, life for people like you in America today is …
Source: Survey conducted August 9-16, 2016.
44% 16% 36%U.S.
Worse Same Better
December 16, 2016 7www.pewresearch.org
Europeans, Americans Among Most Pessimistic About Future
Note: Percentages are regional medians. Europe median of France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom.Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes Survey.
% saying that when children in our country grow up, they will be better off financially than their parents
58%
56
51
32
32
28
Latin America
Africa
Asia/Pacific
Middle East
U.S.
Europe
December 16, 2016 8www.pewresearch.org
Populists More Worried About National Decline% saying country is less important in world today than 10 years ago
among those who have __ opinion of each party/support __ candidate
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey and Pew Research Center Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.
52%
15
46
77
43%
10
39
26
France (FN) Germany (AFD) UK (UKIP) U.S.
Favorable Unfavorable ClintonTrump
Note: Bold indicates the difference is statistically significant. In U.S. asked about playing “a less important role … as a world leader as it did 10 years ago.” Support for candidate in the U.S. is based on primary preference, not general election preference. Trump supporters are asked of Republican and Republican leaning voters. Clinton supporters are asked of Democratic and Democratic leaning voters.
December 16, 2016 9www.pewresearch.org
Concerns About the Economy Are Shared Among Many% saying economy is bad among those who have __ opinion of each party/support __ candidate
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey and Pew Research Center Survey conducted March 17-27, 2016.
88%
33
48
8785%
20
4856
France (FN) Germany (AFD) UK (UKIP) U.S.
Favorable UnfavorableClintonTrump
Note: Bold indicates the difference is statistically significant. Response category in U.S. combines “only fair” and “poor”. Support for candidate in the U.S. is based on primary preference, not general election preference. Trump supporters are asked of Republican and Republican leaning voters. Clinton supporters are asked of Democratic and Democratic leaning voters.
December 16, 2016 11www.pewresearch.org
Europeans More Negative About Diversity than Americans
Having an increasing number of people of many different races, ethnic groups and nationalities in our country makes it …
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. U.S. survey conducted March 17-27, 2016.
7%
63
53
41
40
36
31
31
26
24
22
33%
27
25
39
33
46
40
34
38
48
45
58%
10
18
17
14
17
26
33
36
26
31
U.S.
Greece
Italy
Hungary
Poland
Netherlands
Germany
UK
Sweden
France
Spain
A betterplace to live
Doesn’t makemuch difference
A worseplace to live
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Americans Say Immigrants Strengthen the Country
Immigrants today…
Source: Pew Research Center Survey conducted March 17-27, 2016.
33% 59%U.S.
Burden our country by taking jobs, housing, health care
Strengthen our country through hard work, talents
December 16, 2016 13www.pewresearch.org
Europeans Most Concerned About Refugees’ Threat to Security
Note: Netherlands excluded on crime question due to administrative error.Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
76%
71
61
61
60
57
55
52
46
40
59
Hungary
Poland
Netherlands
Germany
Italy
Sweden
Greece
UK
France
Spain
MEDIAN
75
44
31
65
32
72
46
53
40
50
82%
26
35
47
46
30
28
24
13
30
--
43%
Top choice
Refugees will increase the likelihood of terrorism in our country
Refugees are a burden on ourcountry because they take our jobs and social benefits
Refugees in our country are more to blame for crime than other groups
December 16, 2016 14www.pewresearch.org
Populists Particularly Worried About Refugees and Immigrants
% saying refugees/immigrants are a burden on jobs/benefits among those who have __ opinion of each party/support __ candidate
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey and Pew Research Center Survey conducted March 17-27, 2016.
82%
69 69 69
43%
24
34
17
France (FN) Germany (AFD) UK (UKIP) U.S.
Favorable Unfavorable ClintonTrump
Note: Bold indicates the difference is statistically significant. Support for candidate in the U.S. is based on primary preference, not general election preference. Trump supporters are asked of Republican and Republican leaning voters. Clinton supporters are asked of Democratic and Democratic leaning voters.
December 16, 2016 16www.pewresearch.org
American Trust in Government Has Been Declining for YearsTrust the federal government to do what is right just about always/most of the time
Note: From 1976-2014 the trend line represents a three-survey moving average.Sources: Pew Research Center Surveys, National Election Studies, Gallup, ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times and CNN Polls.
0
20
40
60
80
58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15
%
December 16, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 17
Which statement best describes your views about the future of the European Union?
68%
65
47
44
43
40
39
39
38
35
42
18%
25
38
29
25
35
26
21
39
27
27
8%
6
13
24
26
17
21
34
9
30
19
Greece
UK
Sweden
Netherlands
Germany
Hungary
Italy
France
Poland
Spain
MEDIAN
Some powers should be returned to national govtsDivision of powers should remain the sameNational govts should transfer more powers to EU
Many Europeans Want Power Back From EU
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
December 16, 2016 18www.pewresearch.org
Populists Critical of EU Power% saying some powers should be returned to national governments
among those who have __ opinion of each party
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
47%
60
81
37%42
59
France (FN) Germany (AFD) UK (UKIP)
Favorable Unfavorable
Note: Bold indicates the difference is statistically significant.
December 16, 2016 20www.pewresearch.org
Most Publics Prioritize Dealing With Problems At Home
Our country should …
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey and Pew Research Center Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.
57%
83
7767
6560
52
5145
4040
56
37%
12
1822
2136
43
4351
5355
40
U.S.
Greece
HungaryItaly
Poland
FranceUK
NetherlandsSweden
GermanySpain
EU MEDIAN
Deal with its own problems
Help other countries deal with their problems
December 16, 2016 21www.pewresearch.org
Divide Over Benefits of Global Economic Engagement
Our country’s involvement in the global economy is …
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey and Pew Research Center Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.
A bad thing because it lowers wages and costs jobs
A good thing because it provides new markets and opportunities for growth
49%
57
45
44
39
34
29
27
25
24
24
32
44%
35
51
44
56
56
64
48
71
70
72
56
U.S.
Greece
France
Italy
Spain
Hungary
UK
Poland
Sweden
Germany
Netherlands
EU MEDIAN
Americans Favor Free Trade Deals, But Support is Slipping
December 16, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 22
Source: Pew Research Center Survey conducted August 9-16, 2016.
Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a __ for the United States
5248
59 5851 50
3441
30 3339 42
0
100
Good thing
Bad thing
%
20162015201420112009
December 16, 2016 23www.pewresearch.org
Republicans Turn Negative on Free Trade Agreements% of registered voters who say free trade agreements have been a __ for the U.S. …
Notes: Based on registered voters. Source: Pew Research Center Survey conducted August 9-16, 2016.
Among Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters
Among Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters
57
42
55 51
3231
48
3639
61
0
75
2009 2016
Bad thing
Good thing
4851
6055 58
37 39
3036 34
0
75
2009 2016
Bad thing
Good thing% %
December 16, 2016 24www.pewresearch.org
Trump Supporters Wary of U.S. Global Engagement
% of registered voters who support __ that say …
Note: Support for candidate is based on primary preference, not general election preference. Trump supporters are asked of Republican and Republican leaning voters. Clinton supporters are asked of Democratic and Democratic leaning voters.
Source: Pew Research Center Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.
In foreign policy, the U.S. should follow its own interests even when
its allies strongly disagree
Involvement in the global economy is a bad thing because it lowers
wages and costs jobs
65%
56
37% 35
Trump Clinton
December 16, 2016 25www.pewresearch.org
National Front Supporters Critical of Global Engagement
% with a __ view of the National Front (FRA) that say…
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
France should deal with its own problems and let other countries deal with
theirs
In foreign policy, France should follow its own
interests even when its allies strongly disagree
Involvement in the global economy is a bad thing
because it lowers wages and costs jobs
53%
78
68
43%
5347
Favorable Unfavorable
December 16, 2016 26www.pewresearch.org
AfD Supporters Also Wary of Global Engagement
% with a __ view of the Alterative for Germany (GER) that say…
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
Germany should deal with its own problems and let other countries
deal with theirs
In foreign policy, Germany should follow its own
interests even when its allies strongly disagree
Involvement in the global economy is a bad thing
because it lowers wages and costs jobs
38%
65
55
22%
35
25
Favorable Unfavorable
December 16, 2016 27www.pewresearch.org
UKIP Backers Very Inward Looking
% with a __ view of the UK Independence Party (UK) saying that …
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
The UK should deal with its own problems and let other countries deal with
theirs
In foreign policy, the UK should follow its own
interests even when its allies strongly disagree
Involvement in the global economy is a bad thing
because it lowers wages and costs jobs
38%
74 76
25%
42 43
Favorable Unfavorable
December 16, 2016 29www.pewresearch.org
Chinese and Indians Overwhelmingly Optimistic About Future
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
When children in our country grow up, they will be __ financially than their parents
5%
20
82%
72
China
India
Better offWorse off
December 16, 2016 30www.pewresearch.org
Majority of Indians and Chinese Say Country Plays More Important Role
Compared to 10 years ago, our country plays a __ role in the world today
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
75%
68
10%
4
10%
15
China
India
More important As important Less important
December 16, 2016 31www.pewresearch.org
Chinese and Indians Favor Global Economic Engagement
Our country’s involvement in the global economy is …
23%
25
60%
52
China
India
A good thing because it provides newmarkets and opportunities for growth
A bad thing because it lowers wages and costs jobs
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
December 16, 2016 32www.pewresearch.org
Many Indians Want to Consider Allies’ Interests in Foreign Policy
In foreign policy, our country should …
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
49%
5%
18%
28%
Take into account the interests of
our allies, even if it means making
compromises
Follow its own national interests,
even when its allies strongly disagree
Don't know
Neither/Both (VOL)
December 16, 2016 33www.pewresearch.org
But, Like Most Europeans and Americans, Chinese, Indians Want to Prioritize Problems At Home
Our country should …
56%
53
22%
23
China
India
Help other countries deal with their problems
Deal with its own problems and let other countries deal with theirs
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.