Population Thories

POPULATION THEORIESPopulation Growth and Economic Development

10 LARGEST COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD IN 2007 AND 2050 PROJECTIONSSource: Population Reference Bureau. 2007 World Population Data Sheets (2007).Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

Facts on world populationTotal world population: 6.1 billionAbout 75% of people live in developing countriesAbout 60% of the population lives in Asia and OceaniaAbout 40% of people live in only 15 countriesBy 2200, over 90% of population will live in what today are developing countries

TopicsDemographic measuresTheories of populationPopulation growth in the worldPopulation Policies

Demographic measuresBirthrate Death rateRate of natural increaseInfant mortality rateLife expectancy at birthDoubling timeDependency ratio

Population Growth and Economic DevelopmentPopulation growth and economic development are inter-relatedPopulation growth affects economic development (Malthusian theory and Optimum population theory)Economic development affects population growth(Theory of Demographic Transition)

Impact of population growth on economic developmentReduction in birthrates can raise per-capita income in 3 wayslower dependency ratiolow consumption and high savingsShift of labor force investment from capital widening to capital deepeningSome important quality of life indicators related to population growthImprovement of levels of living Increase in the labor forcesHigher population growth rates and povertyQuality of health care and education Relationship between poverty and family size

Fertility and income

Population Growth, 1750-2200: World, Less Developed Regions, and More Developed Regions

Population Pyramids: Less Developed and More Developed Countries; 1998

MALTHUSIAN THEORY OF POPULATION

Thomas Malthus1766-1834. Born near Guildford!Wrote An essay in the First Principle of population first published in 1798Debatable whether the principles of Malthus two hundred years ago (that were very revolutionary and controversial) have any relevance to the modern world.The world population in 1798 was at 0.9 billion people. We have now passed the six billion mark.

The Core Principles of MalthusFood is necessary for human existenceHuman population tends to grow faster than the power in the earth to produce subsistenceThe effects of these two unequal powers must be kept equalSince humans tend not to limit their population size voluntarily - preventive checks operate in Malthus terminology.If preventive checks do not operate positive checks will control population by famines, disease, social unrest that lead to more deaths than births

Malthusian Theory of Population Population tends to grow at a geometric rate, doubling every 25 years Food supplies only expand at an arithmetic rate due to diminishing returns to land (fixed factor)Malthusian population trap: countries would be trapped in low per-capita incomes (per capita food), and population would stabilize at a subsistence level.Preventive and positive checksTechnological progress is not considered

MALTHUSIAN THEORYF: 1 2 3 4 5 P: 1 2 4 8 16 ..F/P 1 1 .75 .50 .31 ..Thus per capita food availability will be drastically reduced and the result is famine and death. Hence population will automatically get reduced. Malthus called it as a positive check.Malthus said that there are preventive checks like :small family norm, late marriages, celibacy, etc.,

and therefore he said.War, famine, disease.

CRITICISM OF MALTHUSIAN THEORYMalthusian theory is a pessimistic theoryMan is born with two hands and only one mouthMalthus ignored Technology in food productionInternational cooperation will help countries suffering with famines and diseases

OPTIMUM THEORY OF POPULATIONDalton, Robbins have developed the theory of OPTIMUM POPULATIONThey vehemently criticized the Malthusian theory for its pessimismThey assumed that population growth is advantageous in the initial period and after achieving optimum population, it will be disadvantageousOptimum population(O) is defined as that population where there is the highest per capita incomeThey gave the formula for calculating surplus or deficit populationM= (A-O)/O where M=maladjustment, A=actual population, O= optimum population

The Demographic Transition(Thompson and Lewis)Stage I: high birth rates and death ratesStage II: continued high birth rates, declining death ratesStage III: falling birth rates and death rates, eventually stabilizing

Dependency problemsOld age structures and young age structures both create problems with supporting dependents; they are just different problems.Young age structure requires expanding labor markets, investments in educationInvestments in older people less likely to enhance productivity

The present demographic transition in developing countriesStage II already occurred in most of the developing world,but with higher birthrates than in the developed world.Stage III: has been similar to developed countries for some developing countries like Taiwan, South Korea, China,Chile, Costa Rica has not occurred yet for other countries mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa and the middle east.

Rapid and Slow Transition Rapid transition Japan South Korea Taiwan Singapore Thailand Indonesia Slow Transition Pakistan India Bangladesh Philippines Papua New Guinea

Miracles of rapid transition in East AsiaRapid demographic change creates windowsof opportunity for accelerated economic growthRapid growth of labor forceSaving and investmentChanging roles of womenHuman resource investment

Stage of Demographic Transition and population requirementPopulation growth may be good at the beginningIn the middle factors like political stability, cultural resources, and economic efficiency may be much more important than population growthReaching high income may require slowing growth

Household theory of fertilityFamily size is a decision taken at the microeconomic level by households based on a rational economic decision on demand for childrenIncome effect: Higher income allows for larger family sizeSubstitution effect: Higher cost of children implies smaller family sizeOther theories

Why are there so many children in poor countries?

Because children are an investment rather than a consumption good the expected return of theinvestment is given by child labor and financial support for parents in old ageParents have children up to the point at which their marginal economic benefit is equal to marginal cost

Hidden momentum of population growthIt is the tendency of population growth to continue, even after birthrates have decline substantially. Substantial changes in birthrates may take decadeswhen the young population is large, in the near future high-fertility population will be high,even if fertility levels are lower.

Policy approach to deal with the high population growthDecrease marginal economic benefit of children:Increase the minimum-age child labor provide better old-age social securityIncrease marginal cost of childrenIncrease education, employment and wages for women

Policy approachBetter water and public health programs in rural and urban poor areas to lower infant mortalityImplementation of family-planning programsImprovement of quality of care of health and family planning programsMonetary subsidies to small familiesPolitical commitment and role of religious leaders

*In 2007, the US, Russia and Japan are developed countries. In 2050, the United States is the only currently developed country on the top 10 list. (World Population Highlights, Key Findings from PRBs 2007 Population Data Sheet, Population Bulletin, 62:3:1).***