POPULATION PROJECTION OF CHINA Feng Nailin Department of Population & Employment Statistics

POPULATION PROJECTION OF CHINA

Feng Nailin

Department of Population & Employment Statistics

National Bureau of Statistics of China

Population Projection of China

General Condition of Population Projection

Method of ProjectionResults of Projection

Ⅰ.General Condition of Population Projection

1. Population projection of previous 30 years

2. Role of population projection ⑴ One important source to draw up program of development of population and social-economics

⑵ Base of evaluation of population statistics

One example: Under enumeration of youth and young adults – Comparison of sampling survey and evaluation

Evaluation-female, male

Survey-female, male

Ⅱ. Method of Projection

Cohort-component Method : Produce projection of age structure

1. Basic steps

2. Base data

3. Assumptions about births, deaths and migration

4. Time Range

5. Scenario of projection

1. Basic steps (example: chart of projection of urban-rural population)

Estimation of age, death, birth and migration

Urban age-sex of year T

Rural age-sex of year T

Urban pattern of death

Urban pattern of birth

Migration pattern: R to U

Urban deaths

Urban birthsUrban age structure

Urban-rural age of year T+1

T=T+1T=T+1

Cohort-component Method 1 、 Birth population prediction ( 出生人口预测 )

　　　　　　 t年分年龄别的生育率 i 为 15…49 岁　　　　　　 t年分年龄别标准化的生育率 i 为 15…49 岁　　　　　　 t年的总和生育率（出生率控制参数）　　　　　　 t 年 i 岁年龄别育龄妇女人数 　　　　　　 t 年出生人数　　　　　　男性出生人数　　　　　　女性出生人数

)(5.0))1()(()(49

15

tATFRtFtFtB iii

i

)()()( tTFRtBTFRtATFR ii

)(tATFRi

)(tBTFRi

)(tTFR

)(tFi

)(tB

)()()( tsextBtBnan

))(1()()( tsextBtBwomen

)(tsex 出生婴儿性别比

1)(49

15

i

itBTFR

Cohort-component Method 2 、 0 year old population prediction ( 0 岁人口预测 )

t 年 0 岁人口，分男女性别

t 年出生婴儿留存率（ 0 岁留存率） 生命表中 0 岁的平均生存人数，分男女性别 生命表中 i 岁的留存人数，

)(0 tP

)(0 tSR

)0(L

)(iI 100000)0( I

)0(/)0()(0 ILtSR

)()()( 00 tBtSRtP t 年出生人数 （分男女）按男女婴儿留存率计算

Cohort-component Method 3 、 Projection of population of all ages ( 各年龄人口预测 )

t年乡村分性别 i岁年龄别人数 t年城镇生命表分性别 i岁年龄别留存率 t年乡村生命表分性别 i岁年龄别留存率 t 年为预测城镇人数 t 年为预测乡村人数

)1()()()()1( 1100

110

1

tQtSRtPtPtP iii

i

)()()()()()1( 2100

0

22100

1

220

2 tQRtPtSRtPtPtP ii

iii

i

)(2 tPi)(1 tSRi

)(2 tSRi)(1 tP

)(2 tP

2. Base data --Based on 2000 census

⑴Urban population by age-sex, 2000 ⑵Urban survival rate by age-sex or model life ta

ble, 2001-2050 ⑶Urban age-specific fertility rate, 2001-2050 ⑷Net migration rate by urban-rural, 2001-2050 ⑸Net migration rate by province, 2001-2050

International migration may ignore in national population projection.

3. Assumptions of deaths, births and migration

⑴ Deaths--Survivors by sex in life table

⑵Births -- Proportion of age-specific fertility in TFR by urban-rural

⑶ Migration

Assumption of migration from rural to urban

0. 00

0. 01

0. 02

0. 03

0. 04

age

migra

tion r

ate by

age

malefemale

4. Time range

Short term: 10 years less

Mid-term: 10-20 years

Long term:20 years above�

Population projection of China involves in short ， medium and long term

5. Scenario of projection Life expectancy at birth⑴

Comparison of Life Expectancy at Birth of National Population with Different Scenario: 2001-2050

Years Low Medium High

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

2000 71.4 69.6 73.3 71.4 69.6 73.3 71.4 69.6 73.3

2005 73.0 70.8 75.3 73.0 70.8 75.3 73.0 70.8 75.3

2010 73.8 71.8 76.0 74.2 72.1 76.4 74.5 72.4 76.8

2015 74.7 72.8 76.7 75.4 73.4 77.5 76.1 74.0 78.2

2020 75.4 73.6 77.4 76.5 74.5 78.6 77.5 75.5 79.6

2025 76.2 74.4 78.1 77.6 75.7 79.6 79.0 77.1 80.9

2030 77.0 75.2 78.7 78.7 76.7 80.7 80.2 78.3 82.2

2035 77.6 75.8 79.4 79.6 77.7 81.6 81.4 79.4 83.4

2040 78.3 76.4 80.1 80.6 78.6 82.6 82.6 80.5 84.6

2045 78.9 77.0 80.8 81.4 79.5 83.5 83.6 81.5 85.6

2050 79.4 77.6 81.5 82.3 80.3 84.4 84.7 82.5 86.6

⑵ TFR by urban-rural

TFR by Urban-Rural with Different Scenario: 2001-2050

YearsLow Medium High

Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural

2001-2005 1.66 1.22 2.09 1.66 1.22 2.09 1.66 1.22 2.09

2006-2010 1.65 1.20 2.10 1.66 1.20 2.11 1.66 1.21 2.11

2011-2015 1.60 1.18 2.02 1.68 1.26 2.10 1.74 1.37 2.10

2016-2020 1.54 1.16 1.93 1.72 1.33 2.10 1.84 1.59 2.10

2021-2025 1.48 1.13 1.83 1.75 1.40 2.10 1.95 1.80 2.10

2026-2030 1.42 1.11 1.74 1.79 1.48 2.10 2.06 2.02 2.10

2031-2035 1.40 1.10 1.70 1.80 1.50 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10

2036-2040 1.40 1.10 1.70 1.80 1.50 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10

2041-2045 1.40 1.10 1.70 1.80 1.50 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10

2046-2050 1.40 1.10 1.70 1.80 1.50 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10

⑶Urbanization Level Level -- 60% in 2030; Level -- 65% in 2030Ⅰ Ⅱ

Urbanization Level with Different Scenario

Years Annual growth rate （ % ） Percentage point of annual growth

Level Ⅰ Level Ⅱ Level Ⅰ Level Ⅱ

2001-2005 4.13 4.13 1.4 1.4

2006-2010 2.52 2.65 0.9 1.0

2011-2015 2.10 2.63 0.8 1.0

2016-2020 1.67 2.02 0.7 0.9

2021-2025 1.32 1.56 0.6 0.8

2026-2030 1.08 1.24 0.6 0.7

2031-2035 0.88 0.99 0.5 0.7

2036-2040 0.68 0.74 0.5 0.6

2041-2045 0.44 0.48 0.5 0.6

2046-2050 0.21 0.23 0.4 0.5

6 Integrated Scenario of Population Projection

with Life Expectancy at Birth of Mid-level, 2030

TFR Level ofⅠ urbanization

（60%）

Level of Ⅱ urbanization

（65%）

Low （1.4） Low TFR and level Ⅰ Low TFR and level Ⅱ

Mid （1.8） Mid TFR and level Ⅰ Mid TFR and level Ⅱ

High （2.1） High TFR and level Ⅰ High TFR and level Ⅱ

Integrated Scenario (example)

Ⅲ. Results of Projection--Based on 2000 Census

1. Trend of Total Population

2. Trend of Population Growth

3. Trend of Age Structure

1. Total Population Projection

Different Scenario Population of Urban-Rural with Different TFR Scenario (LOW Medium High) (in 100 million)

Level (60%)Ⅰ Level (65%)Ⅱ年份 Low Medium High Low Medium High

2009 13.35 13.35 13.35 13.35 13.35 13.35

2010 13.42 13.42 13.42 13.42 13.42 13.42

2011 13.49 13.49 13.50 13.49 13.49 13.50

2012 13.56 13.57 13.58 13.56 13.57 13.58

2013 13.62 13.64 13.66 13.62 13.64 13.66

2014 13.69 13.72 13.74 13.68 13.71 13.74

2015 13.75 13.79 13.82 13.74 13.78 13.82

2020 13.95 14.07 14.18 13.92 14.04 14.16

2025 14.00 14.24 14.45 13.96 14.19 14.42

2030 13.94 14.32 14.66 13.88 14.26 14.63

2035 13.77 14.31 14.81 13.70 14.24 14.78

2040 13.51 14.22 14.90 13.42 14.13 14.87

2045 13.14 14.04 14.93 13.02 13.92 14.89

2050 12.65 13.75 14.87 12.51 13.60 14.83

2. Population Growth Projection(1) Births Average Annual Births and Crude Birth Rate

Years

Annual births (in 10 million) CBR (‰)

Low Mid High Low Mid High

2001-2005 1690 1690 1690 13.1 13.1 13.1

2006-2010 1606 1610 1614 12.1 12.2 12.2

2011-2015 1600 1680 1749 11.8 12.3 12.8

2016-2020 1414 1579 1723 10.2 11.3 12.3

2021-2025 1200 1429 1635 8.6 10.1 11.4

2026-2030 1067 1360 1632 7.6 9.5 11.2

2031-2035 1006 1329 1646 7.3 9.3 11.2

2036-2040 969 1319 1685 7.1 9.2 11.3

2041-2045 890 1270 1691 6.7 9.0 11.3

2046-2050 788 1190 1667 6.1 8.6 11.2

(2) Projection on Urban-rural PopulationDifferent Scenario Population of Urban-Rural and TFR with Mid-Scenario (in 100 million)

　Years

Level (60%)Ⅰ Level (65%)Ⅱ

Total Urban Rural% of

UrbanTotal Urban Rural

% of Urban

2009 13.35 6.22 7.13 0.466 13.35 6.22 7.13 0.466

2010 13.42 6.36 7.06 0.474 13.42 6.41 7.01 0.477

2011 13.49 6.51 6.98 0.482 13.49 6.59 6.90 0.489

2012 13.57 6.65 6.92 0.490 13.57 6.77 6.79 0.499

2013 13.64 6.79 6.85 0.498 13.64 6.95 6.69 0.510

2014 13.72 6.93 6.79 0.505 13.71 7.13 6.58 0.520

2015 13.79 7.06 6.73 0.512 13.78 7.29 6.48 0.529

2020 14.07 7.67 6.40 0.545 14.04 8.06 5.98 0.574

2025 14.24 8.19 6.05 0.575 14.19 8.71 5.48 0.614

2030 14.32 8.64 5.67 0.604 14.26 9.27 4.99 0.650

2035 14.31 9.03 5.28 0.631 14.24 9.74 4.50 0.684

2040 14.22 9.34 4.88 0.657 14.13 10.10 4.02 0.715

2045 14.04 9.55 4.49 0.680 13.92 10.35 3.57 0.744

2050 13.75 9.65 4.10 0.702 13.60 10.47 3.13 0.770

⑵ Urban-rural Population

Change of Urban-Rural Population of China：1950-2050

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

10 t

hous

and

ruralurban

Rapid Urbanizatio

n?

(3) Growth of Urban Population

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2001

-200

5

2006

-201

0

2011

-201

5

2016

-202

0

2021

-202

5

2026

-203

0

2031

-203

5

2036

-204

0

2041

-204

5

2046

-205

0year

10

thousa

nd

Urban growthMigrantsNatural growth

3. Age Structure Projection (1) Dependency Ratio

Average Dependency ratio, 2001-2050 （ Mid-Scenario, Level Ⅰof Urbanization )

Years

0-14（ 100 millio

n ）

65 over （ 100 millio

n ）

Total dependency ratio

%

Youth dependency ratio

%

Old-age dependency ratio

%

2001-2005 2.80 0.97 41.3 30.7 10.6

2006-2010 2.51 1.10 37.4 25.9 11.4

2011-2015 2.42 1.29 37.4 24.4 13.0

2016-2020 2.40 1.62 40.5 24.1 16.3

2021-2025 2.34 2.00 44.0 23.7 20.3

2026-2030 2.21 2.34 46.7 22.7 24.1

2031-2035 2.07 2.92 53.5 22.2 31.3

2036-2040 2.00 3.43 61.4 22.6 38.8

2041-2045 1.96 3.65 65.8 23.0 42.8

2046-2050 1.90 3.77 69.2 23.2 46.0

(1) Dependency Ratio

Trend of Dependency Ratio, 2001-2050

人口红利

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050Years

De

pe

nd

en

cy R

atio

（%

）

Youth

Old-age

Total

(2) Working-age Population

Population Aged 15-64 （ Mid-Scenario, Level Ⅰof Urbanization )

Years

Population aged 15-64 （ 100million ） % of Total

Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural

2009 9.74 4.80 4.94 73.0 77.2 69.3

2010 9.81 4.91 4.89 73.1 77.2 69.4

2011 9.86 5.02 4.84 73.1 77.2 69.3

2012 9.91 5.13 4.78 73.0 77.1 69.1

2013 9.95 5.23 4.72 72.9 77.0 68.9

2014 9.96 5.32 4.64 72.6 76.8 68.3

2015 9.96 5.40 4.56 72.3 76.5 67.8

2020 9.90 5.77 4.13 70.3 75.2 64.5

2025 9.85 6.09 3.76 69.2 74.3 62.2

2030 9.58 6.22 3.36 66.9 72.0 59.2

2035 9.12 6.19 2.93 0.63.7 68.5 55.5

2040 8.68 6.08 2.60 0.61.0 65.1 53.2

2045 8.41 6.02 2.39 59.9 63.0 53.3

2050 8.06 5.85 2.21 58.6 60.6 53.9

(2) Working-age Population

Population Aged16-64

82000

84000

86000

88000

90000

9200094000

96000

98000

100000

102000

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Pop

.age

d16-

64(1

0tho

usan

d)

-400-200020040060080010001200140016001800

Gro

wth

(10

thou

sand

)

Aged 16-64 Growth

Lewis Point?

(3) Elder Population

Population Aged 65+ and 60+（ Mid-Scenario, Level Ⅰof Urbanization )

YearsAged 65+ （ in 100 million ） Aged 60+ （ in 100 million ） Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural

2001-2005 0.97 0.34 0.63 1.40 0.49 0.91

2006-2010 1.10 0.41 0.69 1.62 0.60 1.01

2011-2015 1.29 0.51 0.78 1.99 0.79 1.20

2016-2020 1.62 0.67 0.95 2.41 1.03 1.38

2021-2025 2.00 0.89 1.11 2.81 1.31 1.51

2026-2030 2.34 1.13 1.21 3.47 1.74 1.73

2031-2035 2.92 1.52 1.40 4.07 2.22 1.85

2036-2040 3.43 1.94 1.49 4.37 2.59 1.78

2041-2045 3.65 2.24 1.41 4.57 2.95 1.63

2051-2050 3.77 2.52 1.25 4.84 3.30 1.54

(3) Elder Population

Annual Growth of Population Aged 65+

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2001

-200

5

2006

-201

0

2011

-201

5

2016

-202

0

2021

-202

5

2026

-203

0

2031

-203

5

2036

-204

0

2041

-204

5

2051

-205

0

Year

10

thousa

nd

TotalUrbanRural

Rapid Growth of Elder ！！

(4) School-age Population

Population Aged 6-22 （ Mid-Scenario, Level Ⅰof Urbanization )

(in 100 million)

Years Total Aged 6-11 Aged 12-14 Aged 15-17 Aged 18-22

2001-2005 3.57 1.11 0.69 0.72 1.04

2006-2010 3.34 1.00 0.54 0.61 1.19

2011-2015 2.95 0.96 0.50 0.52 0.97

2016-2020 2.77 0.96 0.48 0.49 0.85

2021-2025 2.72 0.97 0.48 0.47 0.80

2026-2030 2.66 0.90 0.49 0.49 0.79

2031-2035 2.56 0.83 0.45 0.47 0.81

2036-2040 2.41 0.80 0.41 0.43 0.77

2041-2045 2.29 0.79 0.40 0.40 0.70

2046-2050 2.23 0.78 0.39 0.39 0.67

(4) School-age Population

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2001 2008 2015 2022 2029 2036 2043 2050

Year

10 t

hous

and

0- 5岁

6- 11岁

12- 14岁

15- 17岁

18- 22岁

Population of Schooling Age Specified by Nursery, Primary, Junior Middle, High Middle Schools and University

Yrs0-5 and 6-11 close to 100

M ？

(5) Population Pyramid

China,2000 China, 2010 (Projection)

-3.70-3.99

-5.16-4.21-3.87

-4.79-5.18-4.45

-3.34-3.47-2.59-1.90-1.71-1.39-0.98-0.57-0.25-0.08-0.02

3.073.45

4.743.963.694.544.90

4.193.083.29

2.411.761.581.361.040.690.380.160.05

-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89

90+

M F

-3.01-3.13-3.46-3.74

-4.84-3.94-3.61

-4.46-4.79-4.08-3.02-3.07-2.20-1.50-1.19-0.79-0.41-0.14-0.04

2.852.952.873.24

4.413.673.424.214.55

3.882.832.98

2.131.491.240.930.560.250.10

-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89

90+

M F

China, 2030 (Projection) China, 2050 (Projection)

-2.41-2.52-2.77-2.93-2.79-2.91-3.21-3.45

-4.44-3.59-3.25

-3.94-4.09-3.28-2.14-1.78-0.87-0.31-0.12

2.282.392.632.792.652.752.673.014.09

3.393.143.824.03

3.322.242.08

1.160.520.25

-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89

90+

M F

-2.20-2.34-2.43-2.44-2.49-2.61-2.86-3.02-2.87-2.97-3.25-3.46

-4.35-3.38-2.82-2.93-2.27

-1.08-0.35

2.102.232.312.322.372.482.732.882.742.842.753.074.12

3.342.953.282.90

1.710.74

-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89

90+

M F

Urban of China, 2010 (Projection) Rural of China, 2010 (Projection)

-2.84-2.73-2.69-2.90

-4.74-5.26-4.86-5.47-5.28-4.27-2.97-2.67-1.77-1.15-0.94-0.64-0.33-0.12-0.04

2.702.592.292.48

4.365.104.584.964.70

3.832.712.551.741.211.050.760.440.200.08

-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90+

M F

-3.16-3.49-4.16-4.51-4.92

-2.74-2.48

-3.54-4.35-3.91-3.07-3.44-2.59-1.82-1.42-0.92-0.47-0.17-0.05

2.993.283.403.924.45

2.382.383.544.413.92

2.943.37

2.491.751.411.080.670.300.11

-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89

90+

M F

Rural of China, 2050 (Projection)

Urban of China, 2050 (Projection)

-1.99-2.10-2.17-2.23-2.43-2.66-3.02-3.28-3.18-3.24-3.46-3.62

-4.53-3.74-3.01-2.83-2.02-0.95-0.31

1.902.002.062.112.312.542.853.082.973.022.853.114.163.683.063.04

2.431.41

0.64

-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89

90+

M F

-2.69-2.91-3.03-2.95-2.64-2.47-2.49-2.42-2.15-2.35-2.76-3.09

-3.93-2.52-2.40

-3.16-2.87

-1.40-0.42

2.562.772.892.842.512.352.432.442.202.422.502.974.01

2.522.673.834.01

2.440.99

-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89

90+

M F

Thanks!