Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Department of Rural Sociology Texas.

Population Change in Texas:Implications for Human and Socioeconomic

Resources in the 21st Century

by

Steve H. Murdock

Department of Rural Sociology

Texas Agricultural Experiment Station

Texas A&M University System

Major Demographic Trends Affecting the Future

• Change in Rates and Sources of Population Growth

• Increase in the Non-Anglo Population

• Aging of the Population

Total Population Change

Total Population and Percent Population Change in Texas and the United States, 1850-2002

Total Population Percent Change

Year* Texas U.S. Texas U.S.

1850 212,592 23,191,876 --- ---

1860 604,215 31,443,321 184.2 35.6

1870 818,579 39,818,449 35.5 26.6

1880 1,591,749 50,155,783 94.5 26.0

1890 2,235,527 62,947,714 40.4 25.5

1900 3,048,710 75,994,575 36.4 20.7

1910 3,896,542 91,972,266 27.8 21.0

1920 4,663,228 105,710,620 19.7 14.9

1930 5,824,715 122,775,046 24.9 16.1

1940 6,414,824 131,669,275 10.1 7.2

1950 7,711,194 150,697,361 20.2 14.5

1960 9,579,677 179,323,175 24.2 19.0

1970 11,196,730 203,302,031 16.9 13.4

1980 14,229,191 226,545,805 27.1 11.4

1990 16,986,510 248,709,873 19.4 9.8

2000 20,851,820 281,421,906 22.8 13.2

2002 21,779,893 288,368,698 4.5 2.5 * All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Value

for 2002 is as estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Total Population Percent Change Year* Texas U.S. Texas U.S.

2002 21,779,893 288,368,698 4.5 2.5 * All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Value

Ten Fastest Growing States in Numerical Terms in the United States, 1990-2000

Percent

Numerical Population1990 2000 Change Change

State Population* Population* 1990-2000 1990-2000

California 29,760,021 33,871,648 4,111,627 13.8

Texas 16,986,510 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8

Florida 12,937,926 15,982,378 3,044,452 23.5

Georgia 6,478,216 8,186,453 1,708,237 26.4

Arizona 3,665,228 5,130,632 1,465,404 40.0

North Carolina 6,628,637 8,049,313 1,420,676 21.4

Washington 4,866,692 5,894,121 1,027,429 21.1

Colorado 3,294,394 4,301,261 1,006,867 30.6

Illinois 11,430,602 12,419,293 988,691 8.6

New York 17,990,455 18,976,457 986,002 5.5

* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 of the year indicated

Percent


Ten Fastest Growing States in Percentage Terms in the United States, 1990-2000

PercentNumerical Population

1990 2000 Change ChangeState Population* Population* 1990-2000 1990-2000

Nevada 1,201,833 1,998,257 796,424 66.3

Arizona 3,665,228 5,130,632 1,465,404 40.0

Colorado 3,294,394 4,301,261 1,006,867 30.6

Utah 1,722,850 2,233,169 510,319 29.6

Idaho 1,006,749 1,293,953 287,204 28.5

Georgia 6,478,216 8,186,453 1,708,237 26.4

Florida 12,937,926 15,982,378 3,044,452 23.5

Texas 16,986,510 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8

North Carolina 6,628,637 8,049,313 1,420,676 21.4

Washington 4,866,692 5,894,121 1,027,429 21.1


Percent

Racial/Ethnic Change in Texas

Texas Rank Among States on Selected Characteristics of Race/Ethnicity Groups

Texas Texas ComparisonGroup Value Rank Areas

By Size in 2000

Anglo 11,074,716 3 California; 17.0 millionNew York; 12.5 million

Black 2,421,653 2 New York; 2.9 million

Hispanic 6,669,666 2 California; 11.0 million

Other 685,785 4 California; 4.2 millionNew York; 1.2 millionHawaii; 733,000


By Numerical Change, 1990-2000

Anglo 783,036 2 Florida; 1.1 million

Black 445,293 3 Florida; 665,000Georgia; 627,000

Hispanic 2,329,761 2 California; 3.3 million

Other 307,220 3 California; 1.2 millionNew York; 493,000



By Percent of Total Population in 2000

Anglo 53.1 47 Ahead of Hawaii; 30.1Ahead of New Mexico; 45.7Ahead of California; 48.4

Black 11.6 18 Highest is Mississippi; 36.4Lowest is Montana; 0.4

Hispanic 32.0 3 New Mexico; 42.1California; 32.4

Other 3.3 22 Highest is Hawaii; 60.5Lowest is West Virginia; 0.9


Numerical Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity in Texas for 1980-1990 and 1990-2000

941,383

283,818

1,354,081

178,037

783,036

445,293

2,329,761

307,220

Anglo Black Hispanic Other0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1980-1990 1990-2000

Percent Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity for 1980-1990 and 1990-2000 in Texas

10.077.61

16.77

22.53

45.35

53.68

88.78

81.15

1980-1990 1990-20000

20

40

60

80

100Percent Change

Anglo Black Hispanic Other

Proportion of Net Population Change Attributable to Each Race/Ethnicity Group in Texas for 1980-

1990 and 1990-2000

34.14

20.26

10.29 11.52

49.11

60.27

6.467.95

1980-1990 1990-20000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Major Changes in Population Composition(Characteristics)

• Age

Median Age in the United States and Texas, 1900-2000

22.924.1

25.326.5

2930.1 29.5

28.130

32.9

35.3

18.720.2

2223.7

26.827.9

27 26.428

30.832.3

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

10

20

30

40Median Age

United States Texas

Percent of Texas Population by Age Groupand Ethnicity, 2000

39.541.6

45.0 45.043.1 44.4

47.8

53.0

57.260.2

63.566.4 67.1

72.6

44.041.3

38.0 38.440.5

38.635.3

30.526.7

24.222.4

20.6 20.316.7

< 5

year

s

5 to

9 y

ears

10 to

14

year

s

15 to

19

year

s

20 to

24

year

s

25 to

29

year

s

30 to

34

year

s

35 to

39

year

s

40 to

44

year

s

45 to

49

year

s

50 to

54

year

s

55 to

59

year

s

60 to

64

year

s

65 +

yea

rs0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0Percent

Anglo Hispanic

Percent of Texas Population by Age Groupand Ethnicity, 2040*

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

17.719.3 19.9 20.3 19.8 19.3 19.4 20.5 20.6 21.9

25.3 26.5 27.2

39.8

69.967.8 66.5 65.5 66.0 66.8 66.4

64.362.6

60.6

56.7 55.252.3

37.1

< 5 y

ears

5 to

9 y

ears

10 to

14

year

s

15 to

19

year

s

20 to

24

year

s

25 to

29

year

s

30 to

34

year

s

35 to

39

year

s

40 to

44

year

s

45 to

49

year

s

50 to

54

year

s

55 to

59

year

s

60 to

64

year

s

65 +

yea

rs0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0Percent

Anglo Hispanic

POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC

CONDITIONS

Median Household Income in 1999 in Texas by Age of Householder

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

<25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Age of Householder

Thousands

Median Household Income In 1999 in Texas by Race/Ethnicity of Householder

$47,162

$29,305 $29,873

$50,049

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Anglo Black Hispanic Asian

States Ranked by Median Household Income in 1999

$55,146

$53,935

$52,868

$51,571

$50,502

$49,820

$49,467

$47,493

$47,381

$47,203

$39,927

$41,994

New Jersey (1)

Connecticut (2)

Maryland (3)

Alaska (4)

Massachusetts (5)

Hawaii (6)

New Hampshire (7)

California (8)

Delaware (9)

Colorado (10)

Texas (30)

United States

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000

States Ranked by Per Capita Income in 1999

$28,766

$28,659

$27,006

$25,952

$25,614

$24,049

$23,975

$23,844

$23,389

$23,305

$19,617

$21,587

Connecticut (1)

District of Columbia (2)

New Jersey (3)

Massachusetts (4)

Maryland (5)

Colorado (6)

Virgina (7)

New Hampshire (8)

New York (9)

Delaware (10)

Texas (33)

United States

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000

Educational Attainment in 2000 in Texas for Persons 25+ Years

of Age By Race/Ethnicity

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

< High School

High School

Some College

College or More

Hispanic

Black

Anglo

Asian

Percent

States Ranked by Percent High School Graduates + in the Population 25 Years of Age or Older, 2000

88.3

87.9

87.9

87.7

87.4

87.2

87.1

86.9

86.6

86.4

75.7

80.4

Alaska(1)

Minnesota (3)

Wyoming (3)

Utah (4)

New Hampshire (5)

Montana (6)

Washington (7)

Colorado (8)

Nebraska (9)

Vermont (10)

Texas (45)

United States

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0

Percent

States Ranked by Percent College Graduates +in the Population 25 Years of Age or Older, 2000

39.1

33.2

32.7

31.4

31.4

29.8

29.5

29.4

28.7

27.7

23.2

24.4

District of Columbia (1)

Massachusetts (2)

Colorado (3)

Connecticut (5)

Maryland (5)

New Jersey (6)

Virginia (7)

Vermont (8)

New Hampshire (9)

Washington (10)

Texas (27)

United States

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

Percent

PROJECTIONS

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total 2000 11,074,716 2,421,653 6,669,666 685,785 20,851,820

Assuming Zero Migration

2010 11,292,858 2,604,162 7,986,640 776,088 22,659,7482020 11,320,857 2,727,365 9,220,971 828,786 24,097,9792030 11,086,475 2,756,470 10,406,060 856,437 25,105,4422040 10,599,190 2,697,888 11,408,456 856,047 25,561,581

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal toOne-Half of 1990-2000

2010 11,494,673 2,730,659 8,999,827 953,348 24,178,5072020 11,735,043 3,004,173 11,742,820 1,256,342 27,738,3782030 11,701,065 3,191,230 14,900,692 1,596,578 31,389,5652040 11,382,992 3,283,413 18,391,333 1,954,592 35,012,330

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000

2010 11,700,471 2,863,397 10,164,378 1,168,772 25,897,0182020 12,165,004 3,309,068 15,056,028 1,897,182 32,427,2822030 12,350,427 3,694,283 21,533,219 2,960,361 40,538,2902040 12,225,486 3,995,349 29,926,210 4,435,916 50,582,961

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total 2000 11,074,716 2,421,653 6,669,666 685,785 20,851,820


2010 11,292,858 2,604,162 7,986,640 776,088 22,659,7482020 11,320,857 2,727,365 9,220,971 828,786 24,097,9792030 11,086,475 2,756,470 10,406,060 856,437 25,105,4422040 10,599,190 2,697,888 11,408,456 856,047 25,561,581


2010 11,494,673 2,730,659 8,999,827 953,348 24,178,5072020 11,735,043 3,004,173 11,742,820 1,256,342 27,738,3782030 11,701,065 3,191,230 14,900,692 1,596,578 31,389,5652040 11,382,992 3,283,413 18,391,333 1,954,592 35,012,330


2010 11,700,471 2,863,397 10,164,378 1,168,772 25,897,0182020 12,165,004 3,309,068 15,056,028 1,897,182 32,427,2822030 12,350,427 3,694,283 21,533,219 2,960,361 40,538,2902040 12,225,486 3,995,349 29,926,210 4,435,916 50,582,961

Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Population in Texas by Racial/Ethnic Status Under Alternative Assumptions of

Migration Scenarios Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total


2000-2010 2.0 7.5 19.7 13.2 8.72010-2020 0.2 4.7 15.5 6.8 6.32020-2030 -2.1 1.1 12.9 3.3 4.22030-2040 -4.4 -2.1 9.6 0.0 1.82000-2040 -4.3 11.4 71.0 24.8 22.6


2000-2010 3.8 12.8 34.9 39.0 16.02010-2020 2.1 10.0 30.5 31.8 14.72020-2030 -0.3 6.2 26.9 27.1 13.22030-2040 -2.7 2.9 23.4 22.4 11.52000-2040 2.8 35.6 175.7 185.0 67.9


2000-2010 5.7 18.2 52.4 70.4 24.22010-2020 4.0 15.6 48.1 62.3 25.22020-2030 1.5 11.6 43.0 56.0 25.02030-2040 -1.0 8.1 39.0 49.8 24.82000-2040 10.4 65.0 348.7 546.8 142.6

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other

2000 53.1 11.6 32.0 3.3


2010 49.9 11.5 35.2 3.42020 47.0 11.3 38.3 3.42030 44.2 11.0 41.4 3.42040 41.5 10.6 44.6 3.3


2010 47.6 11.3 37.2 3.92020 42.4 10.8 42.3 4.52030 37.2 10.2 47.5 5.12040 32.5 9.4 52.5 5.6

Assuming Rates of Net MigrationEqual to 1990-2000

2010 45.2 11.1 39.2 4.52020 37.5 10.2 46.4 5.92030 30.5 9.1 53.1 7.32040 24.2 7.9 59.1 8.8

Percent of Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Percent of the Population in Texas by

Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

Projected Proportion of Population by Race/Ethnicity in Texas, 2000-2040*

* Using U.S. Census count for 2000 and Texas State Data Center 1.0 population projection scenario for 2010-2040

53.1

45.2

37.5

30.5

24.2

11.6 11.1 10.2 9.1 7.9

32.0

39.2

46.4

53.1

59.1

3.3 4.5 5.9 7.3 8.8

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Year

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0Percent


AgeGroup Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

All Scenarios2000

<18 23.0 31.7 35.8 26.1 28.218-24 8.8 11.2 13.2 11.2 10.625-44 30.1 32.1 31.8 37.7 31.145-64 24.4 17.7 14.0 20.1 20.265+ 13.7 7.3 5.2 4.9 9.9


2020

<18 19.9 24.1 31.4 20.7 24.818-24 8.1 10.2 11.1 9.1 9.625-44 24.9 29.8 27.2 24.4 26.345-64 27.6 25.3 21.8 30.2 25.165+ 19.5 10.6 8.5 15.6 14.2

2040

<18 17.4 19.8 27.4 17.0 22.118-24 7.7 8.9 10.1 6.7 8.825-44 24.0 27.3 26.7 23.8 25.645-64 25.2 27.0 20.8 22.9 23.365+ 25.7 17.0 15.0 29.6 20.2

(Continued)

AgeGroup Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

All Scenarios2000

<18 23.0 31.7 35.8 26.1 28.218-24 8.8 11.2 13.2 11.2 10.625-44 30.1 32.1 31.8 37.7 31.145-64 24.4 17.7 14.0 20.1 20.265+ 13.7 7.3 5.2 4.9 9.9


2020

<18 19.9 24.1 31.4 20.7 24.818-24 8.1 10.2 11.1 9.1 9.625-44 24.9 29.8 27.2 24.4 26.345-64 27.6 25.3 21.8 30.2 25.165+ 19.5 10.6 8.5 15.6 14.2

2040

<18 17.4 19.8 27.4 17.0 22.118-24 7.7 8.9 10.1 6.7 8.825-44 24.0 27.3 26.7 23.8 25.645-64 25.2 27.0 20.8 22.9 23.365+ 25.7 17.0 15.0 29.6 20.2

(Continued)

Percent of the Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity and Age Groups in Texas from 2000-2040 Under Alternative

Migration Scenarios

Projected Percent of Net Change Attributable to Each Race/Ethnicity Group in Texas for 2000-2040*

* Using U.S. Census count for 2000 and Texas State Data Center 1.0 population projection scenario for 2040.

Anglo3.9%

Black5.3%

Hispanic78.2%

Other12.6%

The Texas Challenge in the Twenty-First Century: Implications of

Population Change for the Future of Texas

by

Steve H. Murdock

The Center for Demographic and

Socioeconomic Research and Education

Department of Rural Sociology

Texas A&M University System

The Center for

Demographic and

Socioeconomic

Research and Education

Ethnic Diversity of the Population, Householders, and Labor Force in Texas, 2000 and 2040*


53.1%

11.6%32.0%

3.3%

61.4%

11.4% 24.2%

3.0%

58.4%

10.7% 27.5%

3.4%

24.2%7.9%

59.1%

8.8%

29.0%9.0%

52.8%

9.2%

25.2%7.9%

58.7%

8.2%


2000 Population

2040 Population

2000 Householders

2040 Householders

2000 Civilian Labor Force

2040 Civilian Labor Force

Ethnic Diversity of the Population Enrolled in Elementary and Secondary Schools and

Colleges in Texas, 2000 and 2040*


43.2%

14.4%

39.5%

2.9%

58.0%

10.7%25.6%

5.7%

19.9%

8.3%

66.3%

5.5%

28.7%8.1%

50.9%12.3%


2000 Public Elementaryand Secondary

2040 Public Elementaryand Secondary

2000 Public Collegesand Universities

2040 Public Collegesand Universities

Ethnic Diversity of Household Income and Consumer Expenditures in Texas, 2000 and 2040*


71.2%

8.2%17.3%

3.3%

66.4%

8.7%21.9%

3.0%

38.2%

7.4%

42.8%

11.6%

31.9%7.1%

51.7%

9.3%


2000 AggregateHousehold Income

2040 AggregateHousehold Income

2000 Consumer Expenditures

2040 Consumer Expenditures

State Tax Revenues in Texas Proportioned by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040* Assuming 2000 Decile Tax Rates

*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

38.2%7.4%

42.8%11.6%


2040* Projected Tax Revenues

71.2%

8.2%

17.3%3.3%

2000 Tax Revenues

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040


18.8

29 28.7

18.2

5.3

30.128.7

23.9

12.9

4.4

No High School Diploma

High School Graduate

Some College

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate/Prof.Degree

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Percent

2000 2040

Average Household Income in Texas, 2000-2040*

(in 2000 Dollars)


$54,441

$52,639

$50,903

$49,326

$47,883

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by Family Type in Texas, 2000 and 2040


11.4

7.5

15.0

26.7

18.9

14.415.4

11.8

17.0

30.0

18.9

16.6

Family Households

Married Couple

Male Householder

Female Householder

Nonfamily Households

Total Households

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Percent in Poverty

2000 2040

EDUCATION

Percent of Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas Who Are High School Graduates and Higher or

College Graduates and Higher by Race/Ethnicity, and Percent Change, 1990-2000

Percent PercentHigh School College

Race/ Graduates GraduatesEthnicity and Higher and Higher

1990

Anglo 81.5 25.2Black 66.2 12.0Hispanic 44.6 7.3Asian 79.1 41.3Total 72.1 20.3

2000


Percent Change in Percent


Public Community College and University Enrollment Rates (Per 100 Persons Ages 18 to 35)

in Texas by Race/Ethnicity, 1990 and 2000

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

Community College

1990 6.3 4.1 4.4 5.6 5.52000 6.5 5.2 4.8 6.8 5.7

Public University

1990 7.4 4.0 3.5 10.0 6.02000 7.5 4.7 3.3 10.3 5.7

Enrollment in Public Community Colleges andPublic Universities in Texas, 2000-2040*


371

445

495

581

677

421

510

589

710

849

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Years

0

200

400

600

800

1,000Thousands

Public Community Colleges Public Universities

Percent Change in Projected Public Elementary and Secondary, Public Community

College and Public University Enrollment in Texas Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000

(1.0 Scenario)

TimePeriod Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

Public Elementary and Secondary

2000-2010 -5.5 0.4 28.1 40.2 9.92010-2020 -1.5 1.2 37.5 35.0 18.22020-2030 -5.7 3.5 31.7 30.2 16.92030-2040 -8.0 -3.0 27.5 37.6 16.12000-2040 -19.2 2.0 195.7 239.3 76.2

Public Community Colleges

2000-2010 3.8 21.5 48.8 50.7 21.22010-2020 -3.3 8.9 36.7 47.0 15.52020-2030 -1.2 6.1 40.0 43.4 20.52030-2040 -4.4 4.7 34.6 37.3 19.52000-2040 -5.2 46.8 283.4 336.1 101.6

Public Universities

2000-2010 6.5 24.3 48.4 45.8 20.02010-2020 -5.2 5.4 36.5 44.8 11.12020-2030 -0.6 4.3 39.5 40.9 17.52030-2040 -4.4 4.7 34.8 33.2 16.52000-2040 -4.1 43.1 281.2 296.4 82.5

2000-2010 -5.5 0.4 28.1 40.2 9.9

Projected Percent of Public Community College Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040*


54.7

25.7

11.18.1

29.5

56.0

4.7

10.2

2000 2040

Projection Year

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Percent


Projected Percent of Public University Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040*


61.5

32.3

10.38.1

21.3

44.5

6.9

15.1

2000 2040

Projection Year

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Percent


Number and Percent of Net Change in Projected Public Elementary and Secondary, Public Community College and

Public University Enrollment in Texas Due To Each Race/Ethnicity Group, Assuming Rates of Net Migration

Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)

Race/Ethnicity Number Percent

Public Elementary and Secondary

Anglo -332,362 -10.9Black 11,462 0.4Hispanic 3,097,353 101.5Other 275,111 9.0Total 3,051,564 100.0

Public Community Colleges

Anglo -12,071 -2.8Black 21,856 5.1Hispanic 351,517 82.2Other 66,487 15.5Total 427,789 100.0

Public Universities

Anglo -9,237 -3.0Black 16,506 5.4Hispanic 222,397 72.7Other 76,306 24.9Total 305,972 100.0

$28,974

$45,368

$58,133

$84,029

$112,004

Less Than High School

High SchoolGraduate

Some College orAssociate Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate/ProfessionalDegree

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

Average Income

*From March 2001 Current Population Survey

Average Annual Household Income in the United States by Educational Attainment* in 2000

$1,158,960

$1,814,720

$2,325,320

$3,361,160

$4,480,160


High SchoolGraduate

Some College orAssociate Degree

Bachelor's Degree


$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

$4,000,000

$4,500,000

$5,000,000

Lifetime Income

*From March 2001 Current Population Survey

Lifetime Household Income in the United States by Educational Attainment* in 2000

Working Lifetime (40 Years) Consumer Expenditures by Educational Attainment

(in 2000 Dollars)

$1,095,640

$1,533,960

$1,818,440

$2,628,520

$3,503,600

Less ThanHigh School

High SchoolGraduate

Some College Bachelor'sDegree


$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

Working Lifetime Expenditures

$106,400

$145,160

$167,440

$212,440

$283,160


High SchoolGraduate

Some College Bachelor's Degree


$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

State and Local Taxes

Working Lifetime (40 Years) Total State and Local Taxes for Households by Educational Attainment of Householder

(in 2000 Dollars)

Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040* Assuming 1990-2000 Trends in Educational Attainment Rates


12.7

25.7

31.6

30.0

24.0

29.9

30.6

15.5

50.7

22.0

18.4

8.9

21.0

16.1

20.6

42.3

2.2

16.6

33.4

47.8

4.3

25.6

40.5

29.6

32.1

25.8

24.1

18.0

13.4

7.6

11.0

68.0

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc

Bachelor's +

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc.

Bachelor's +

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc

Bachelor's +

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc

Bachelor's +

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

Percent

2000 2040

Black

Hispanic

Other

Anglo

Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under

Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*


$251

$621

$765

$938

$210

$528

$629

$752

2000Base Values

2040 Assuming2000 Attainment

Differentials

2040 Assuming1990-2000 Trends

in Differentials

2040 AssumingAnglo Trends

Apply to all Groups

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Billions

Aggregate Income Consumer Expenditures

Percent Change in Projected Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas Under Alternative

Educational Attainment Assumptions, 2000 to 2040*


147.6 151.1

204.7 199.0

273.9257.3

Aggregate Income Consumer Expenditures0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

Percent Change

2000 AttainmentDifferentials

1990-2000 Trends in Differentials

Anglo TrendsApply to all Groups

Prison Population and Prison Costs for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under



126,515

341,068

227,969

134,539$1.9

$5.1

$3.4

$2.0

2000Base Values


Differentials


in Differentials


Apply to all Groups

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000Prison Population

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0 Costs (Billions)

Prison Population Prison Costs

Medicaid Participants and Medicaid Costs for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*


397,959

1,353,742

950,713

485,228

$1.0

$3.4

$2.4

$1.2

2000Base Values


Differentials


in Differentials


Apply to all Groups

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

1,250,000

1,500,000Medicaid Participants

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0 Costs (Billions)

Medicaid Participants Medicaid Costs

TANF Participants and TANF Costs for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under



122,772

469,976

356,127

179,697

$90.3

$345.8

$262.1

$132.2

2000Base Values


Differentials


in Differentials


Apply to all Groups

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

TANF Participants

$0.0

$100.0

$200.0

$300.0

$400.0 Costs (Millions)

TANF Participants TANF Costs

Food Stamp Participants and Food Stamp Costs for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under



323,194

1,256,109

959,744

481,898

$51.2

$199.2

$152.2

$76.4

2000 Base Values


Differentials


in Differentials


Apply to all Groups

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

1,250,000

Food Stamp Participants

$0.0

$100.0

$200.0

$300.0

$400.0 Costs (Millions)

Food Stamp Participants Food Stamp Costs

Percent Change in Projected Prison, TANF, Food Stamp, and Medicaid Participants and Costs for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas Under

Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions, 2000 to 2040*


169.6

282.8 288.7

240.2

80.2

190.1 197.0

138.9

6.3

46.4 49.121.9

Prisons TANF Food Stamps Medicaid0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0Percent Change

2000 AttainmentDifferentials

1990-2000Trends inDifferentials

Anglo TrendsApply to all Groups

Steve MurdockTexas State Data Center

Phone (CS) 979 - 845 - 5332Phone (AUS) 512 - 463 - 7659Fax 979 - 845 - 8529Website txsdc.tamu.edu

Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Department of Rural Sociology Texas.

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