Population change

Population Change

Unit 3 – June 6th 2014

Global Population Growth

The rate of global population growth is slowing down, but the total population is still increasing, just not as quickly as it was a few years ago.

Global Population DistributionDistribution – where people are located and how they are spread out across the world

Density – the number of people per unit of area e.g. per km2

Reasons for Distribution Differences

• Areas with the lowest populations include the extreme north, deserts and rainforest as these places are difficult to inhabit.

• Countries with the highest population densities again are China and India

• Countries with low population densities include Canada, Russia and Australia and this is because these are large countries with low populations and so the population is very spread out (sparse).

The Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition ModelStage 1 – High Fluctuating

Reasons for High Birth Rate• Little or no birth control• High infant mortality• Children seen as status symbol

Reasons for High Death Rate• High incidence of disease• Poor nutrition and famine• Poor housing and hygiene• Little or no health care

Total population is lowThere are no countries in this stage of the model but some isolated tribes in the Amazon Rainforest are still like this

The Demographic Transition ModelStage 2 – High Fluctuating

Reasons for High Birth Rate• Little or no birth control• Children seen as status symbol

Reasons for Falling Death Rate• Infant mortality is falling• Improved health care and hygiene• Better nutrition• Safer water, better waste disposal

Total population is begins to increase rapidlyExamples of this stage include Afghanistan and Nepal

The Demographic Transition ModelStage 3 – Late Expanding

Reasons for Falling Birth Rates• Widespread birth control• Preference for smaller families• Expense of bringing up children• Low infant mortality rate

Total population is begins to slow

Examples of this stage include Egypt and Thailand

The Demographic Transition ModelStage 4 – Low Fluctuating

• Low birth rate and death rate• Population becomes older• Death rates are kept low by

improving health care• Birth rates are kept low by

effective birth control and women delaying the age at which they have children

Examples of countries in this stage include the UK and USA

The Demographic Transition ModelStage 5 – Decline

• Death rate starts to be higher than birth rate

• Modern medicine keeps the elderly alive for longer

• Total population begins to decline• Fewer people are in the

reproductive age meaning lower birth rate

• This stage has only recently be reached by some European countries such as Italy.

Factors affecting Population Distribution and Density

Natural Factors

Steepness of slopes – you cant build on very hilly ground easily. Rivers – needed as a water source Climate – too hot or cold or no rainfall makes living there difficultBiological – If the soil is very thin and there is no vegetation you cannot farm

Human Factors

Economic – minerals to sell, energy, industries and services all need to be in place to attract people to the areaSocial – types of communicationTechnology – ability to exploit natural resourcesPolitical – governments may try to change how the population is distributed.

Historical Factors

Population distribution is something that happens over many centuries as more people are added to the country and the population spreads out.Factors that used to be significant such as a river as a source of water are no longer important as water can be piped in using modern technology.

Population Distribution in China

• Population is concentrated to the Eastern half of the country where densities are greater than 1000 persons per km2 in some places

• Very sparsely populated belt to the west• To the northwest is an area where the population densities are

between 25 to 250 persons per km2

• High population matches areas that are mainly lowland areas• They probably have the best soils too• High mountains over 5000m will explain the sparse population

densities to the west

• The highest population also matches with the area of highest rainfall (over 50cm per year)

• Similarly, the areas of lowest rainfall are the areas of sparse population

• Give the high mountains this precipitation probably falls as snow

Population Distribution in the UK• The most sparsely populated areas

are the Highlands and Islands of Scotland and the uplands of Northern Ireland, Wales and Northern England

• There are two areas of high population density; one in the south east of England and the other in the north west of England.

• With both high density areas the reason is historic. Both are the locations of coalfields.

• Although coal is no longer mined, in the past coal was the energy resource that attracted a huge amount of industry and so people moved to where there were jobs.

China’s One Child Policy• The One Child Policy was introduced in 1979 to try and stop of growth

of China’s already huge population• For 20 years after that no couple living in a city was supposed to have

more than one child and if they did they faced many consequences• All couples were closely monitored by female health workers• Couples with only one child were given a certificate to entitle them to

benefits such as cash bonuses, longer maternity leave, better child care and access to the best houses

• Unmarried young couples were persuaded to put their marriages on hold

• Couples without children were told to ‘wait their turn’• Women with illegal pregnancies were pressured into having abortions• Couples who already had more than one child were forced to be

sterilized

FAMILY PLANNING PROPAGANDA

Right: Modern mother’ statue,

Shanghai

Below: Statues

depicting one child families

FAMILY PLANNING PROPAGANDA

FAMILY PLANNING PROPAGANDA

The picture above and right has a banner outside a school that reads: “Seriously control the population growth,

work hard to make the birth rate stable”

The picture on the middle right translates as “Have one child, one only and raise him wisely for the good of society.”

The graffiti on the wall bottom right says “If you have an extra birth it will be a bitter and difficult struggle”.

The Specific Facts!• Since 1996 the policy has been relaxed, especially in rural• Birth rates have fallen from 34 births per 1000 people in 1996 to

12 births per 1000 people in 2008• Population growth has fallen from 2.4% to 0.6%• Despite this the population has grown in China from 996 million

to 1.3 billion people

• The policy has been much more effective in urban areas• In cities finding enough living space for 3 people is difficult and

raising a child there is much more expensive• In rural areas there is always a need for an extra pair of hands to

help run the farm

Singapore’s Have Three or More• From the 1960’s to 1980’s the government aim in Singapore was to control

the population.• It was worried that the tiny island would become overpopulated.• However they soon realised that this was having a bad effect on the countries

economy• Less people meant that there was no one to fill the jobs – they were running

short of labour• The old family planning slogan of ‘stop a two’ was replaced by ‘Have three or

more – if you can afford it’.• A whole new set of incentives (benefits) were introduced to encourage this:

– Tax breaks for the third, fourth and so on child– Cheap nurseries for working mothers– Access to the best schools– Spacious apartments– Speed dating bars– Cruises and other leisure opportunities that might help lead to women becoming

pregant– Pregnant women offered counselling to avoid abortions

Southampton’s Population Statistics 2001

• In 10 years the population increased by 20,000 people• 87.5% of Southampton’s residence were born in Britain

(similar to the National average)• In 2001 Southampton had a higher proportion of 18 –

24yr olds than the rest of England because of the university there.

• 65.6% identified their religion as Christian which is lower than the rest of England

• The largest source of employment for people in Southampton is wholesale and retail trade.

Population Pyramids

• They show two things: gender and age• One side is males the other is females• The youngest age group 0 – 4 years old is at the bottom• The oldest age group over 90 years is at the top.• The number of males and females in each age group is show by

the horizontal bar; the longer the bar, the more people there are in that age group.

• The shape of population pyramids is controlled by three things:– The birth rate – the higher it is, the bigger the pyramids base– The death rate – the lower it is, the taller the pyramid– The balance between birth rate and death rate – if births exceed

deaths or vice versa

• A board based, rather squat pyramid shows an LIC country.• This is what’s called a youthful population• There are plenty of young adults in the population and there is a high birth

rate and many young children.• This is largely to do with the fact it is a poorer country – many people are

employed in primary sector employment, mainly farming and so need children to work on the farm.

• However, death rate is also high and so life expectancy is low. You can see very clearly that there are very few people living into their 90’s

LIC Population Pyramid:Indonesia

• The population pyramid for Mexico (a middle income country) is more even sided and taller than that of Indonesia.

• This means death rates are lower and life expectancy is greater• Health care has improved and people are beginning to work in

secondary sector employment.• However the birth rate is still very high• The younger part of the population is larger than the elderly part but

the gap has closed.

MIC Population Pyramid:Mexico

• The population pyramid for the UK has almost lost is pyramid shape because it bulges in the middle

• The base of the pyramid has started to disappear showing that the birth rate has gotten a lot lower than it was previously

• The number of elderly compared to the number of young people is almost equal

• The death rate has also declined meaning people are living a lot longer• The pyramid tells us that we have an ageing population

HIC Population Pyramid:

UK

Consequences of youthful and aging populations

Youthful Ageing

DemographicA growth in numbersMore people need to be employed, housed and fed

Numbers remain the same or declineBeneficial if there are shortages of food

EconomicPublic money needs to be spent on special services; building and running nurseries, schools and children’s clinics

Public money needs to be spent on special services; care homes, suitable housing and day centresReduction in the size of the work force

SocialDependence of the child on the parents.Difficulty supporting young family

The elderly become dependant on their children to support them

Political Priorities will be in providing education and jobs for their youthful population

Priorities will be in providing pensions, health care and stopping age discrimination

An ageing population case study - UK

• The UK is one of 61 countries in the world where not enough babies are being born to replace those that are dying

• This results in the population becoming ‘greyer’• In 2001 there were 5.4 million women aged over 60

compared with 3.9 million men• Of men over 65 and women over 60, 10% were still

working• 7 out of 10 pensioners depend on the governments

state pension for over half their income

Advantages and disadvantages of an aging population in the UK

Advantages Disadvantages

Economic

• A combination of good health, paid up mortgages, plenty of disposable income and ‘empty nests’ means many pensioners are contributing to this countries economy.

• A growth in overseas SKI (spending skids inheritance) holidays is helping LIC’s become more developed too.

• With fewer people working there is a challenge of raising enough taxes to pay for the growing numbers of pensions

• For this reason the state pension is not enough for people to live on and a growing number of pensions are experiencing deprivation.

• Also who will pay for all the services that elderly people need?

Social

• The creation of retirement resorts in popular locations. Pensioners are able to live with others their own age and so combat loneliness

• They are able to provide the social and medical facilities that are needed.

• With people living longer there is a challenge over who will look after them.

• It used to be the children’s responsibility but now more and more people are handing them over to care homes.