POPULATION AGEING IN RUSSIA: Gender Dimension · population size (141. 9 million in 2009) after China, India, the USA, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria and the first

UNITED NATIONS ESCAPUNITED NATIONS ESCAP

SubregionalSubregional Meeting on Meeting on

Enhancing LongEnhancing Long--Term Care and Social Participation of Older Persons Term Care and Social Participation of Older Persons

in East and Northin East and North--East AsiaEast Asia

3 3 –– 4 November, 2011, 4 November, 2011, IncheonIncheon, Republic of Korea, Republic of Korea

POPULATION AGEING IN RUSSIA:POPULATION AGEING IN RUSSIA:

Gender DimensionGender Dimension

GayaneGayane SAFAROVASAFAROVA

SaintSaint--Petersburg Institute for Economics and Mathematics Petersburg Institute for Economics and Mathematics

Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Academy of Sciences

Table 1.Table 1. MainMain demographicdemographic indicatorsindicators,, RF, 2009RF, 2009(The Demographic Yearbook of Russia 2010)(The Demographic Yearbook of Russia 2010)

TTOOTTAALL SSIIZZEE

(mln.)

114411..99

TTFFRR 11..5544

LE

Males 6622..88

Females 7744..77

Net migration (per 1000 population) 11..77

Russia (the Russian Federation) is located in Eastern Europe and Northern Asia,

bordering on China, North Korea, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Azerbaijan, Georgia,

Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, and Norway. Russia

has the biggest territory in the world (17075.4 thousand km2), and it is the ninth in

population size (141. 9 million in 2009) after China, India, the USA, Indonesia,

Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria and the first in Europe. The capital of Russia is

located in the city of Moscow with a population of 10.5 million.

Fertility level in Russia expressed by the total fertility rate (TFR) is closer to

Japanese and the Republic of Korean (RoK) ones (1.4 and 1.5 births per woman

correspondingly) and lower than the TFR for Mongolia (2.4) and China (1.8 births

per woman, see Asian Demographic … Data Sheet 2008). At the same time, life

expectancy (LE) in Russia (67.7 years for both sexes for the period 2005-2010) is

closer to Chinese and Mongolian values (72.7 and 67.7 years correspondingly) and it

is much lower than LE for RoK and Japan (80.0 and 82.7 correspondingly). At

present Russia has the greatest among the ENEA countries net migration rate,

moreover, unlike China, Mongolia and the RoK, net migration in Russia is positive

(World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision).

�� Some facts about population ageing in RussiaSome facts about population ageing in Russia

�� Heterogeneity of population ageing in Russia Heterogeneity of population ageing in Russia ––

gender imbalancegender imbalance

�� Policy implications Policy implications of and policy responses to accelerating of and policy responses to accelerating

population ageing in Russia will be considered.population ageing in Russia will be considered.

Fig. 1. Fig. 1. Population pyramids, RussiaPopulation pyramids, Russia, 1897 , 1897 ии 2007 (%)2007 (%)

Population pyramids are “mirrors” for countries’ demographic history. Figure 1

demonstrates the progress of demographic transition in Russia. A comparison

between population pyramids of Russia in 1897 (the year of the first Russian

census) and at present (in 2007) shows dramatic changes in the country’s age

composition: the proportion of children (under age 15) decreased from 37.7% in

1897 to 14.7% in 2007 while that of the elderly (population aged 60+) increased

from 7.3% to 17.1%. The pyramid for 1897 is typical for a population before the

beginning of demographic transition – it has a broad base and a narrow vertex.

Besides, it shows age structure deformations (i.e. sharp disproportions between

sizes of adjacent age groups) due to crisis events in the country’s history (e.g.

WWII that resulted in sharp decrease in the size of the age group 60-64 years old

in 2007). Gender imbalance can be clearly seen as well.

While demographic transition started in Western Europe at the end of the 18th

century, in Russia it began much later – in the 1920s. This results particularly

in lower values of ageing indicators for Russia as compared with those for

developed countries.

Russia is not an “old” country - according to World

Population Ageing (2007) in 2007 Russia was

- the 44th in the percentage of the elderly (60+),

- the 34th in median age and

- the 30th in ageing index among 192 countries.

Population ageing is developing rapidly:in 1990 – 2010 annual increase in the percentage of the elderly was 0.6%,

in 2010 – 2050 it is expected to be 1.9% (WPP, the 2010 Revision)

Table 2. Table 2. Selected ageing indicatorsSelected ageing indicators, ,

Russia, Russia, 2010 2010 ии 2050 2050 гггг.. ((WPP, the 2010 Revision; medium variantWPP, the 2010 Revision; medium variant))

Table 2 shows values of selected ageing indicators for Russia inTable 2 shows values of selected ageing indicators for Russia in 2010 and 2050 (for the latter 2010 and 2050 (for the latter –– own own

elaboration based on WPP elaboration based on WPP The 2010 RevisionThe 2010 Revision, medium variant), i.e. proportions of the elderly (60+ , medium variant), i.e. proportions of the elderly (60+

and 80+), oldand 80+), old--age dependency ratio (OADR, the relative size of the old age popage dependency ratio (OADR, the relative size of the old age population to the working ulation to the working

age population (aged 15 age population (aged 15 –– 59), ageing index (59), ageing index (the ratio of people aged 60+ to children younger 15). the ratio of people aged 60+ to children younger 15).

Thus, all considered ageing indicators are expected to increase Thus, all considered ageing indicators are expected to increase significantly.significantly.

6.06.02.92.9Prop. 80+ (%)Prop. 80+ (%)

184184118118Ageing indexAgeing index

60.060.026.426.4OADROADR

31.231.217.717.7Prop. 60+ (%)Prop. 60+ (%)

2050205020102010indicatorindicator

Table 2a. Selected ageing indicators for the ENEA region, 2010 Table 2a. Selected ageing indicators for the ENEA region, 2010

and 2050 and 2050 (own elaboration based on WPP (own elaboration based on WPP The 2010 RevisionThe 2010 Revision, medium variant), medium variant)

indicator Prop.60+ (%) OADR Ageing index

year

country

2010 2050 2010 2050 2010 2050

China 12.3 33.9 18 64 63 252

Japan 30.5 41.5 54 91 228 310

Mongolia 5.9 20.5 9 36 21 91

Rep. of Korea 15.7 38.9 23 81 96 296

Russia 17.7 31.2 26 60 118 184

While at present Russia has rather low values of ageing characteristics as compared

with developed European countries, in 2050 they (values of ageing characteristics

for Russia) are expected to become closer to values for European countries.

As to the ENEA countries, values of considered ageing characteristics have minimal

values for Mongolia and maximal ones for Japan. It should be mentioned that

differences between maximal and minimal values are projected to decrease. Thus, in

2010 Prop.60+ for Japan was 5.2. times higher that that for Mongolia, while in 2050

– 2 times; in 2010 OADR for Japan was 6 times higher that that for Mongolia, while

in 2050 – 2.5 times, and for ageing index corresponding ratios are 10.8 and 3.4

times.

While at present proportion of population 60+ and OADR for Russia (17.7% and 26

aged 60+ per 100 aged 15 – 59 correspondingly) are close to those for RoK (15.7%

and 23 aged 60+ per 100 aged 15 – 59 correspondingly) in the year`2050 they are

projected to be closer to Chinese ones (equal to 33.9% and 64 aged 60+ per 100 aged

15 – 59 correspondingly).

Fig. 2. Number of males and females aged 60+, RF, Fig. 2. Number of males and females aged 60+, RF,

1990 1990 –– 20102010In Russia the number of females outnumbers that of males both inIn Russia the number of females outnumbers that of males both in the total population the total population

and the population aged 60+. Thus, in 2010 the number of femalesand the population aged 60+. Thus, in 2010 the number of females aged 60+ was 16.6 million and aged 60+ was 16.6 million and

that of males was almost twice smaller that of males was almost twice smaller -- 8.5 million. In 1990 the number of females 60+ was 118% 8.5 million. In 1990 the number of females 60+ was 118%

greater than that of males 60+ while in 2010 in was greater by 9greater than that of males 60+ while in 2010 in was greater by 95% (relative to male population aged 5% (relative to male population aged

60+).60+).

5000000

7000000

9000000

11000000

13000000

15000000

17000000

19000000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

females 60+ males 60+

Fig. 3.Fig. 3. Proportion ofProportion of populationpopulation agedaged 60+,60+, male and female populations, RF (%)male and female populations, RF (%)

The proportion of the elderly for the male population has been mThe proportion of the elderly for the male population has been much lower than that uch lower than that

for the female population. Thus, in 2010 Prop.60+ for males was for the female population. Thus, in 2010 Prop.60+ for males was 13.0% while for 13.0% while for

females it was 68% higher, i.e. 21.8%.females it was 68% higher, i.e. 21.8%.

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

females-Prop.60+ males-Prop.60+

Fig. 4. Fig. 4. Life expectancy at birth (Life expectancy at birth (left scaleleft scale) and at the age ) and at the age 60 60 ((right right

scalescale), ), RussiaRussia,, 1959 1959 –– 20082008

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

15,0

15,5

16,0

16,5

17,0

17,5

18,0

18,5

19,0

Total-LE0 Total-LE60

Fig. 5. Fig. 5. Life expectancy at the age ofLife expectancy at the age of 65, 65, Russia and selected Russia and selected

European countriesEuropean countries, 2008, 2008((LE in Russia is one of the lowest in Europe) LE in Russia is one of the lowest in Europe)

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

Bel

arus

Lat

via

Lit

huan

ia

Rus

sia

Ukr

aine

Bul

gari

a

Cze

ch R

epu

blic

Hun

gary

Pol

and

Rom

ania

Bel

gium

Fra

nce

Ger

man

y

The

Net

herl

ands

Gre

ece

Ital

yP

ortu

gal

Spai

nF

inla

nd

Swed

en

Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

LE65-males LE65-females EU-27-males EU-27-females

Figure 5 represents LE at the age 65 for several countries representing different regions of

Europe, i.e. Western Europe (Belgium, France, Germany, The Netherlands), Southern

Europe (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain), Eastern Europe (Belarus, Latvia, Lithuania,

Ukraine, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania) and Northern Europe

(Finland, Sweden, United Kingdom). At the same time they belong to countries with

transition economies (e.g. Ukraine and Poland) and non-transition countries (e.g. France and

Spain). In turn, considered transition countries represent both post-Soviet states (e.g. Belarus

and Latvia) and Eastern European transition countries (e.g. Hungary and Romania).

It should be mentioned that the gender gap in LE in Russia (12 years in 2008) has been the

greatest in Europe, being for EU-27 equal to 6.1 years.

The difficult situation with mortality in Russia may be demonstrated by the following fact:

life expectancy at age 60 in Russia (being in 2006 13.8 years for males and 19.4 years for

females) does not exceed life expectancy at age 65 for EU-27 (equal to 15.5 years for males

and 19.4 years for females). ). Thus, Western socio-economic policies which are connected

with high and increasing life expectancy can’t be applied to the Russian situation without

serious adaptation to the country’s situation.

Fig. 6. Fig. 6. Male lMale lifeife expectancyexpectancy aatt birthbirth and at older agesand at older ages,,

RussiaRussia

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

LE 0 LE 60,65,70,75,80

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

LE 0 Россия LE 60 Россия LE 65 Россия LE 70 Россия LE 75 Россия LE 80 Россия

Fig. 7. Fig. 7. Female lFemale lifeife expectancyexpectancy aatt birthbirth and at older agesand at older ages,,

RussiaRussia

70

70,5

71

71,5

72

72,5

73

73,5

74

74,5

75

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

LE 0 LE 60,65,70,75,80

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

LE 0 СПб LE 0 Россия LE 60 Россия LE 65 Россия

LE 70 Россия LE 75 Россия LE 80 Россия

Fig. 8. Fig. 8. Gender differences in lGender differences in lifeife expectancyexpectancy aatt birthbirth and and

at older ages at older ages ((LefemLefem//LEmalLEmal)),, RussiaRussia

1

1,05

1,1

1,15

1,2

1,25

1,3

1,35

1,4

1,45

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

LE 0 Россия LE 60 Россия LE 65 Россия LE 70 Россия

LE 75 Россия LE 80 Россия

Table 3. Gender differences inGender differences in llifeife expectancy aexpectancy att birthbirth and at older agesand at older ages,, RussiaRussia, ,

20092009Since 2005 some increase in LE at birth and at older ages both for males and for females has been

observed, besides, for males this increase has been more rapid than for females.

It is remarkable that gender gap in LE is decreasing with age. Thus, LE60 for females was 40% higher that

that for males, while LE 80 was only 13.5% higher.

LE at the age

LE males LE females

LE difference, years

(LE females - LE

males)

LE difference, %

(LE females - LE

males)/ LE males

60 14.4 20.1 5.7 40.0

65 12.0 16.4 4.4 36.9

70 9.6 12.8 3.2 32.6

75 7.7 9.6 1.9 24.6

80 6.2 7.0 0.8 13.5

Fig. 9. Fig. 9. Number of males per 1000 females for older age Number of males per 1000 females for older age

groups, groups, RF, 1990 and 2010RF, 1990 and 2010

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

Total 60-64 Total 65-69 Total 70-74 Total 75-79 Total 80-84 Total 85+

1990 2010 60+ 2010

Fig. 1.Fig. 1.

Fig. 10. Number of males per 1000 females in the whole populatioFig. 10. Number of males per 1000 females in the whole population and in the n and in the

population 60+, Russia, 1990 population 60+, Russia, 1990 -- 2010 2010

((In Russia the number of males per 1000 females in the populationIn Russia the number of males per 1000 females in the population 60+ increased from 461 in 1990 60+ increased from 461 in 1990

to 515 in 2010). to 515 in 2010).

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Total 60+

Fig. 11. Number of males per 1000 females for older age groups, Fig. 11. Number of males per 1000 females for older age groups, RF, 1990 RF, 1990 –– 20102010

((for each year from the considered period this ratio is decreasinfor each year from the considered period this ratio is decreasing with age) g with age)

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total 60-64 Total 65-69 Total 70-74 Total 75-79Total 80-84 Total 85+

Fig. 12. Number of males per 1000 females in whole populations aFig. 12. Number of males per 1000 females in whole populations and in nd in

populations 60+, selected European countries, 1990 and 2010, populations 60+, selected European countries, 1990 and 2010,

((the considered ratios for Russia were lower than for other Europthe considered ratios for Russia were lower than for other European countries).ean countries).

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

France

France

60+

Russ

iaR

ussia

60+

SpainSpain

60+

Sweden

Sweden

60+

Poland

Poland60+

1990 2010

Table 4. Table 4. Number of males per 1000 females in the whole population and in Number of males per 1000 females in the whole population and in the the

population 60+, ENEA region, 1990 and 2010population 60+, ENEA region, 1990 and 2010inin the ENEA region Russia has the lowest values ofthe ENEA region Russia has the lowest values of the number of males per 1000 females in the the number of males per 1000 females in the

total population as well as in the population 60+ (while China htotal population as well as in the population 60+ (while China has the greatest ones). In can seen as the greatest ones). In can seen

that in 2010 the percentage of females in the population 60+ wasthat in 2010 the percentage of females in the population 60+ was 51.5 for China and 66.0 for 51.5 for China and 66.0 for

Russia (for the total population corresponding figures were 48.0Russia (for the total population corresponding figures were 48.0% and 53.7%). % and 53.7%).

Male/female ratio in the whole population Male/female ratio in the population 60+

Year

country

1990 2010 1990 2010

China 1067 1078 908 942

Japan 962 950 739 792

Mongolia 975 977 842 769

Rep. of Korea 1003 994 644 757

Russia 880 861 461 515

Development of population ageing in Russia and significant gender imbalance of

ageing indicators have been shown. Gender imbalance has multiple consequences.

Thus, in general women have lower pensions than men (at present their pensions

are approximately 90-94 % of those for men) because they usually occupy lower

positions (and thus have lower wages) and have shorter working periods than men

have (due to the maternity leave).

It is acknowledged that elderly women more often become victims of cruel

treatment in families.

Old women more often than men face the problem of loneliness as can be seen

from Table 5.

The number of widowed men is much lower than that of women. It sThe number of widowed men is much lower than that of women. It should be mentioned that the hould be mentioned that the

differences between numbers of widowed men and women (shown in pdifferences between numbers of widowed men and women (shown in parentheses) decrease with age arentheses) decrease with age

reflecting the decrease in gender gap in mortality). reflecting the decrease in gender gap in mortality).

In turn, old men have serious problem as well. Lonely men have lIn turn, old men have serious problem as well. Lonely men have lower abilities to take care of ower abilities to take care of

themselves than women have, they require more help than women. Tthemselves than women have, they require more help than women. Thus, men die at hospitals more hus, men die at hospitals more

often than women.often than women.

658

(2.7)

24670+70+

425

(3.6)

1186565--6969

324

(3.8)

866060--6464

WomenWomenMen Men Age groupAge group

Table 5. Table 5. The number of widowed per 1000 persons of The number of widowed per 1000 persons of

corresponding agecorresponding age (2002 population census)(2002 population census)

Russia needs a consistent longRussia needs a consistent long--term sustainable ageing policies. Unfortunately until now supporterm sustainable ageing policies. Unfortunately until now support of the t of the

elderly (and other vulnerable groups) has a populist, episodic aelderly (and other vulnerable groups) has a populist, episodic and fragmentary character. nd fragmentary character.

Policy mattersPolicy matters

Barriers to elaborating adequate policies related to ageing :Barriers to elaborating adequate policies related to ageing :

�� VeryVery oftenoften inin RussiaRussia oldold peoplepeople areare consideredconsidered asas dependantsdependants, , thethe burdenburden

forfor thethe statestate andand a a threatthreat toto thethe pensionpension systemsystem;;

�� TThehe generalgeneral approachapproach toto elaboratingelaborating policiespolicies relatedrelated toto ageingageing andand thethe

elderlyelderly inin RussiaRussia isis wrongwrong asas usuallyusually suchsuch policiespolicies addressaddress toto bothboth thethe

elderlyelderly andand disableddisabled personspersons ((thoughthough thesethese groupsgroups maymay havehave quitequite differentdifferent

interestsinterests, , needsneeds andand problemsproblems););

�� As a rule, populationAs a rule, population--related policies are not scientifically grounded.related policies are not scientifically grounded.

Concept of demographic policy of the Russian Federation Concept of demographic policy of the Russian Federation

for the period up to 2025for the period up to 2025 approved by the Order of the President of approved by the Order of the President of

the Russian Federation N 1351 of 09.10.2007 includes the Russian Federation N 1351 of 09.10.2007 includes ““adoption of special adoption of special programmesprogrammes for health maintenance and expanding the healthy period of lifefor health maintenance and expanding the healthy period of lifefor the elderly, development of for the elderly, development of gerontologicalgerontological serviceservice””..

On the basis of this concept priority measures to adapt ecoOn the basis of this concept priority measures to adapt economy and social nomy and social

infrastructure of the RF to the ageing society could be elaboratinfrastructure of the RF to the ageing society could be elaborated.ed.

It seems elaborate and fruitful that the suggested measures start with informing the society about inevitability of population ageing and inspiring children and young people with respect to old people and their contribution to the development of the country. Besides, the normative and legal base should be improved to eliminate the discrimination and limitation of access of the elderly to all spheres of the society’s life. Moreover, the expert examination of laws and normative documents from the point of view of their possible impact on the elderly should be conducted.

MIPAA: MIPAA: ……it is critical to ensure the integration of a gender perspectiveit is critical to ensure the integration of a gender perspective into all into all policies, policies, programmesprogrammes and legislation.and legislation.

Ageing process in Russia is characterized by significant gender Ageing process in Russia is characterized by significant gender imbalance, and imbalance, and without taking account of this heterogeneity, ageing policies arwithout taking account of this heterogeneity, ageing policies are doomed to e doomed to be ineffective. be ineffective.

ReferencesReferences

Asian Demographic and Human Development Data Sheet 2008.

Safarova G. Heterogeneity of population ageing in Russia and policy implications //

Population Ageing in Central and Eastern Europe. Societal and Policy Implications/

A. Hoff Ed., ASHGATE, 2011. – P. 53 – 76.

The Demographic Yearbook of Russia 2000, …, 2010: Statistical Handbook. –

Moscow: Rosstat.

World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision,

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm