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International Perceptions of Climate

Change Over the Past 25 Years

A Systematic Literature Review

Wouter Poortinga, Stuart Capstick, Lorraine Whitmarsh,

Nick Pidgeon, and Paul Upham

Our Common Future under Climate Change

Our Common Future under Climate Change, Paris, France 7-10 July 2015

This Presentation

Capstick et al 2015

• Changes over time warrant attention as may undermine responses to climate change

– supply side: community opposition can lead to delays/cancellations low-carbon facilities

– demand side: willingness to take action against climate change and compliance with policies

• With >25 years of public perception research, we are in a position to take stock of key trends and social forces underlying trends.

• Systematic review of the literature (1989-2014)

– outline international trends over past quarter century

– identify contextual factors underlying temporal trends

Background

Systematic Review

Capstick et al 2015

Systematic Review

• International perceptions of climate change over the

past quarter century

Publications and studies included in the review:

1. early studies (n=7)

2. descriptive polling (n=33)

3. studies linked to events / time series (n=12)

4. qualitative longitudinal studies (n=5)

Capstick et al 2015

International Trends in Perceptions

• Key periods in public perceptions of climate change

over the past quarter century

1. 1980s - Early 1990s: Increasing knowledge and awareness

2. Early 1990s - Mid 2000s: Growth and fluctuation in concern

3. Mid 2000s - Early 2010s: Increasing scepticism/ polarization

4. Present: A new phase for public perceptions?

• Drivers of trends in public perceptions

1. key events

2. weather conditions and events

3. (socio-) economic conditions

Capstick et al 2015

• Early studies (Capstick et al 2015)

International Trends in Perceptions

Dunlap & Scarce 1991

• Public attitudes from mid-1990s to mid-2000s

– increasing levels of awareness and concern

– ‘universal’ awareness from late 1990s onwards

– interest/concern ‘peaked’ around 2005-2008

International Trends in Perceptions

Poortinga et al 2011:

Gallup

Change between 2007 -2010

Drivers of Climate Change Perceptions

• Drivers of trends in public perceptions

1. key events

2. weather conditions and events

3. (socio-) economic conditions

Key Events

1. Kyoto Protocol

– no changes in public opinion; but political polarisation in support for action (Krosnick et al 2000)

2. The Day After Tomorrow

– altered views of watchers; but not sufficient to change public opinion (Leiserowitz 2004)

3. Climate Gate

– substantial impact on public views, but limited change in trust (Leiserowitz 2013)

– limited evidence in UK (BBC/Populus 2010)

– low public awareness of climate gate (Leiserowitz et al 2010)

Weather Conditions and Events

• Joireman et al 2010 – positive correlation between the outdoor

temperature and beliefs in GW

– heat primes increase believe in GW

• “Anomaly” analyses – Deryugina (2013): short term anomalies (<2 weeks)

don’t have an effect; longer term anomalies (>1

month) do

– Donner & McDaniels (2013): 3-12 month

temperature anomaly has effect

– Egan & Mullin (2012): weekly anomaly

associated with GW beliefs; but effect

diminishes over time

• Capstick et al 2015 – 2014 winter floods: British public have made connections with climate change

– Climate change more salient &‘immediate’ for those living in flood areas

Economic Conditions

Gallup

Climate

serious issue

Climate

Concern

GDP Change (2008-2009) 0.28 0.49**

Unemployment (Dec 2008) -0.40* -0.23

Unemployment (year change) -0.43* -0.52**

Eurobarometer 2008-2009 (change)

cf. Scruggs and Benegal 2012

Economic Conditions

Climate serious issue: CC in top 2 most serious problems facing the world

Climate Concern : climate change is a serious problem at this moment

Climate

serious issue

Climate

Concern

GDP Change (2010-2011) 0.08 -0.09

Unemployment (May 2011) 0.14 0.05

Unemployment (year change) -0.19 0.09

Unemployment (2008-2011) 0.04 0.04

Eurobarometer 2009-2011 (change)

cf. Scruggs and Benegal 2012

Economic Conditions

Climate serious issue: CC in top 2 most serious problems facing the world

Climate Concern : climate change is a serious problem at this moment

• Is there an Issue Attention Cycle for Climate Change

Issue Attention Cycle (Downs 1972) Source: Petersen 2009

An Issue Attention Cycle?

“The current 34% worry is essentially the same as it was in 1989”

An Issue Attention Cycle?

JPI Climate/ European Social Survey

• Context and personal circumstances hardly ever studied in conjunction with individual-psychological factors

– can only be examined with cross-national research

Weather

Economy

Media Education Energy Infrastructure

Political representation

• Provide the first theoretically-grounded, systematic

comparison of the individual and socio-political drivers

of climate change and energy perceptions at the

European level (UK, Germany, France, Norway)

1) Conduct directly comparable nationally

representative surveys of public opinion

(our core objective).

2) Carry out in-depth analyses of the

socio-political context in each

participating nation

(to inform the survey design).

3) Produce and disseminate

a series of recommendations

for public engagement at the

national and European level.

JPI Climate (European Perceptions of CC)

http://www.europeansocialsurvey.org

Many Thanks

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[email protected]

@wouterpoortinga